By Dalton Del Don
Vincent Jackson rewarded fantasy owners who gambled on him in Week 15, when he recorded five catches for 112 yards and three touchdowns. He was inches away from a fourth score, and his numbers were also subdued thanks to San Diego getting conservative after grabbing a 31-0 lead. Jacksonâs performance reminded everyone why he wants a huge contract â heâs highly talented. Malcom Floyd returning to action would cut into Jacksonâs targets, but thatâs hardly a guarantee for Week 16, and Antonio Gates remains highly questionable as well. Fantasy owners should start Jackson with confidence this weekâ¦Michael Crabtree has totaled a paltry 10 receptions for 126 receiving yards over the past five games, as heâs been one of the bigger fantasy busts of 2010. Heâs hauled in more than five catches and reached 65 receiving yards during just one game all season long. Crabtree has a lot of work to do with his route-running, and itâs surprising to see a pedestrian receiver like Josh Morgan out produce him. Crabtree has scored five times this year, and there remains plenty of untapped upside for the sophomore wideout, but the 49ers badly need to upgrade the QB situation if heâs ever going to reach his potentialâ¦Only Joe Theismann would call it a âgutsy decisionâ for the 49ers to accept a penalty giving them a first down after kicking a field goalâ¦Matt Millen: âI think the loss of Justin Smith has hurt San Franciscoâs defensive front.â Really? As opposed to what, helping it?…Philip Rivers is now 20-1 during December throughout his career.
Iâm not having an especially good year against the spread, so please donât take this as bragging, but I somehow was 11-0 ATS after the early games Sunday and finished 14-2 overall. I knew I should have put in that 11-team parlay! Seriously, I doubt Iâll accomplish something so meaningful in life ever again. Itâs all downhill from here.
Impressive performance by Matt Cassel toughing it out Sundayâ¦Seeing Jamaal Charles get caught from behind during his 80-yard run was one of the more surprising plays of Week 15â¦Assuming the Seahawks lose in Tampa Bay, the 49ers/Rams matchup is essentially a playoff game. Surprising to see St. Louis favored by fewer than three points at home.
John Skelton has been awful, but at least heâs made Larry Fitzgerald relevant againâ¦Although he lost yet another fumble (his fourth of the season in fewer than 150 carries), Jonathan Stewart topped 130 rushing yards for the second consecutive game last week, and heâs averaged 5.9 YPC over the past four contests. Unfortunately, in Week 16 he faces a Steelersâ front seven that has allowed 3.0 YPC and five rushing scores on the year â both league-lows. In fact, Pittsburgh has ceded just one carry for 20-plus yards all season long, and the second stingiest run defense in football (the 49ers) has allowed a full half-yard more per carry. Stewart owners should look elsewhere during the fantasy super bowlâ¦Iâd make the over/under for offensive touchdowns scored for Carolina this week 0.5, and Iâd take the under.
After throwing for 242 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 130 yards and another score, most of Michael Vickâs fantasy owners are likely still playing in Week 16. Put differently, thatâs equivalent to throwing for 240 yards and eight touchdowns in a single game. If you prorate Vickâs numbers from the 10 games heâs finished this year, he produces a seasonâs pace of 4,330 passing yards, 32 passing TDs, 954 rushing yards and 13 rushing scores. Thatâs essentially the same as a non-running QB throwing for 6,238 yards and 52 touchdowns. Iâm never one to take a quarterback within the first five rounds, and Vick offers plenty of risk with his style of play, but I really couldnât fault anyone for making him the No. 1 overall pick in 2011 draftsâ¦Like clockwork, Andy Reid once again botched a challenge Sunday in spectacular fashionâ¦That was easily one of the craziest games Iâve ever seen in my life. Twenty-eight points scored in the final 7:30 minutes?! Unbelievable. As a result, the odds are now against the Giants making the playoffsâ¦DeSean Jacksonâs punt return was the first in NFL history to win a game as time expired.
It was a fun ride while it lasted, Buccaneersâ¦Apparently, the Lions have the deepest QB group in all of footballâ¦Despite getting just 285 snaps (44th in the league among running backs), LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL with 45 missed tackles. Thatâs impressive stuff.
Itâs a small sample to be sure, but Colt McCoyâs rookie season canât be overlooked. Heâs gotten 8.0 YPA with a 65.8 completion percentage despite having possibly the worst receiving corps in the NFL. Durability remains a concern, but McCoy absolutely looks like a potential franchise quarterbackâ¦Before injuring his knee a few weeks back, Terrell Owens clearly proved he has plenty left in the tank, even at age 37, but he also already wore out his welcome in Cincinnati, despite being so productive. Should be interesting to see which (if any) team takes a chance on him in 2011.
For Buffalo fans who were furious when the team passed on line help during the draft to take a running back, I can only imagine their frustrations now after the season C.J. Spiller has hadâ¦Itâs pretty incredible Miami is 1-6 at home and 6-1 on the road this season. Also, they have somehow alternated wins and losses in every game since Week 4. But somethingâs got to give Sunday, as they are playing at home coming off a loss.
Making his first start since 2008, Rex Grossman threw for 322 yards and four touchdowns against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and Grossman also committed three turnovers and produced most of his stats while coming back from a 20-point deficit, so it all needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Still, he produced 30 points, which is a season-high for Washington and more points than the team has scored against the Cowboys during their last four meetings combined. Donovan McNabb is done in Washington, and while the team is certain to select a QB in the upcoming draft, Grossman is going to get a trial run, and heâs always had a backer in offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. With Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Ryan Torain and an emerging Anthony Armstrong combined with an awful defense, Grossman is actually in a pretty good situation to put up stats. Heâs a sneaky fantasy option in Week 16 against a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed an NFL-high 8.4 YPA this seasonâ¦Miles Austin has averaged 6.6 catches and 97.2 receiving yards with Tony Romo at QB and just 3.1 catches and 42.0 receiving yards with Jon Kitna under center. Austin deserves some blame being among the league-leaders in drops this season, and his lack of production has been especially discouraging considering the team has averaged 32.2 points over six games since Jason Garrett took over as head coach. Austin will be a buy-low target at drafts next season coming off a disappointing campaign and with Romo back, but realize itâs possible he takes a backseat to the ultra talented Dez Bryant in the passing game.
Making his first appearance since Week 11, Austin Collie had already racked up eight catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns in the first half Sunday before leaving with yet another concussion. This is turning into a scary and sad situation, as itâs the third time since November he has departed a game with concussion symptoms. His season is almost certainly over, and at this point, itâs safe to question his career as well. Itâs a shame, as Collie had scored eight touchdowns over the seven games he was able to finish this year, which is a seasonâs pace of 18 scoresâ¦Who would have thought Donald Brown would have 83 more rushing yards than Maurice Jones-Drew in their matchup last week…It sure looked like Mike Thomas called for a fair catch before he returned a punt 78 yards for a touchdown.
While hardly a bust, Ray Rice has failed to live up to his preseason ADP, but he made it up to owners who were still alive in Week 15, when he totaled 233 yards and two touchdowns. It marked just the second game heâs reached 90 rushing yards this season, as his YPC has dropped from 5.3 last year to 4.0 in 2010. Heâs racked up 417 receiving yards over the past seven games â a seasonâs pace of 953 yards. Rice doesnât possess the scoring upside of other backs in the league, but like Brian Westbrook before him, heâs certainly capable of reaching the end zone 8-12 times in a given year. Heâll be someone to target late in the first round at 2011 draft tablesâ¦Drew Brees is having another strong year, on pace to finish with a career-high 35 touchdown passes, but heâs also been picked off in 10 consecutive gamesâ¦Over the last seven games, Anquan Boldin has averaged just 3.1 receptions and 42.1 yards with only two touchdowns over that span. Heâs been held to 50 yards or fewer in six of those seven contests despite Joe Flacco emerging as one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Boldin is now 30 years old and has taken a lot of physical punishment throughout his career, and his days as an elite fantasy option appear to be finished.
Not an ideal time for Arian Foster to rush for a season-low 15 yards in Week 15. Any fantasy owner who survived it should be rewarded in the fantasy championship, when Foster faces a Denver defense that has allowed the most points to running backs this season, assuming heâs healthy of course. Just in case, Derrick Ward is a must-add in all leaguesâ¦Seriously, whatâs the deal with Randy Moss? Can he really be this bad at this stage of his career?
Matt Hasselbeck somehow managed just 71 passing yards with three turnovers and zero touchdowns at home against an Atlanta secondary that ranks in the bottom half of the league, posting an anemic 28.9 QB rating despite getting his full receiving corps back. Heâs committed a whopping 13 turnovers over the past four games, and since Hasselbeck has posted a 6.8 YPA mark or lower in four of the past five seasons, the 35-year-oldâs days as a starter appear to be coming to an endâ¦Matt Ryan continues to defy the odds, somehow throwing 25 touchdowns despite a 6.5 YPA mark. That said, he actually leads the NFL in win probability added (4.43 WPA), so heâs been clutch. Atlanta is doing an excellent job of revealing just how important winning the turnover battle is.
A great bounce back victory for the Jets, but the Steelers are still in the driverâs seat for the AFC North, needing only to beat the Panthers and Browns over the final two games to win the divisionâ¦Mark Sanchez didnât play great, but he did well protecting the football, and that naked bootleg TD run on fourth down legitimately faked me out. One of the best Iâve ever seen.
Tim Tebowâs first NFL start was mixed, as his 40-yard touchdown run and 33-yard TD pass to Brandon Lloyd were both impressive, but he also completed just 50.0 percent of his passes while implementing one of the most scaled back game plans youâll ever see. Of course, the conservative attack should come as no surprise for a rookie QB making his first career start, especially for a passer as raw as Tebow. Heâs clearly got a long ways to go, but any quarterback with his rushing potential is noteworthy in fantasy leagues. With Tebowâs dominance at the goal line, 15 rushing scores isnât out of the question if he became a full-time starter down the roadâ¦With a win in Week 17, Oakland could become the first team in NFL history to go undefeated in its division and not make the playoffsâ¦The Raiders scored 98 points against the Broncos this year, which is the most ever against a single opponent since the mergerâ¦Knowshon Moreno left Sundayâs game after gaining just five rushing yards with a rib injury, which is too bad since he had totaled 682 yards with four touchdowns over the previous five games. As one of the few backs in football who dominates his teamâs carries, including at the goal line, and is also plenty active as a receiver, he offers a ton of fantasy potential, even if heâs not a special running back, but itâs safe to say Moreno is an injury risk at this point.
Matt Flynn proved what a difference a weekâs worth of starter snaps in practice can be. Also, Green Bayâs system is pretty goodâ¦Week 16âs matchup between the Giants and Packers should be one of the best of the regular season. Either team is absolutely capable of winning the NFC, yet the loser likely wonât even make the playoffsâ¦Surprisingly, Wes Welker has the third most drops in the NFL this season (only Steve Johnson and Mike Williams have more)â¦Yes, Dan Connollyâs 71-yard kick return was absolutely one of the coolest plays of the year.
Adrian Peterson has produced a fine season and has been worthy of a top fantasy selection despite his team crumbling around him, but his surprise inactive was crushing, considering it came on a Monday night and during a crucial Week 15. He also managed just 26 total yards the week before, so Petersonâs collapse couldnât have come at a worse timeâ¦With those weather conditions and defenses in battle, it was quite surprising to see the Bears and Vikings combine for 54 points. Thatâs 21 more than the over/under…What a crazy turn of events for fantasy owners who started Peterson or Joe Webb on Monday night. And while I would use Webb as a WR3 in Week 16, you better have a backup plan, because itâs bad news the team once again plays a night game. Weâve been here before with Brett Favre, so donât be surprised if he plays no matter how bleak his outlook appears.
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