By Dalton Del Don
The 49ers continue to find new ways to lose, with Sunday being the most frustrating yet. All Nate Clements had to do was lay on the ground after his interception (instead he tried to return it and got stripped from behind), and itâs game over. What was he thinking? Even if he returns it for a touchdown, that actually was a better scenario for the Falcons (who would get the ball back immediately, and it would still be a one score game). Dumbest play of the 2010 season so farâ¦Roddy White has been targeted 50 times this season, easily the most in the NFL. Heâs firmly in the discussion as the top fantasy wideoutâ¦Iâm not overly concerned about Michael Turnerâs declining YPC (3.8) and still view him as a top-10 fantasy commodity, but Jason Snelling is noticeably quicker when he enters Atlantaâs backfieldâ¦Matt Ryan is 15-1 at home during his career.
Lee Evans is on pace to finish the year with 376 receiving yardsâ¦Itâs far from an ideal situation, but with Marshawn Lynch traded, maybe the Billsâ backfield can have some fantasy value after all. Fred Jackson has the higher floor, but C.J. Spiller has by far the most upside. Iâd prefer the latterâ¦After a poor Week 1 against a Ravens defense that has allowed an NFL-low 5.2 YPA with just one passing touchdown this season, Mark Sanchez has gotten 7.9 YPA with an 8:0 TD:INT ratio. He hasnât been sacked over the past two games and hasnât lost a fumble this year either. Only one other QB (Mike Vick) in football has yet to throw an interception this season. With a strong running game led by the rejuvenated LaDainian Tomlinson (who rushed for 100 yards Sunday for the first time in 26 games), Sanchezâs fantasy upside is limited, as heâs averaged just 25.8 passing attempts per game, but the addition of Santonio Holmes gives him yet another weapon moving forward. Sanchez looks like the real deal.
Mike Wallace is on pace for just 36 receptions and has essentially been worthless in three of four games this season, but heâs clearly talented and should really improve once Ben Roethlisberger returns after the bye. Target him now before itâs too lateâ¦Baltimoreâs touchdown with 34 seconds left Sunday cost me a perfect 8-0 ATS during the morning games. Not that anyone caresâ¦Not sure what to make of Ray Rice right now. His YPC has dropped from 5.3 last year to 3.8, and heâs on pace to catch about half the amount of balls as he did in 2009. And heâll never be the goal-line guy. The knee injury is a real mystery, so the safe play would be to stay away. However, he was a full participant in practice Wednesday and is coming off a tough matchup in Pittsburgh, so Iâd personally try to buy-low here.
Whatâs going on with New Orleans? The defense taking a step back isnât a shock, but the offense has regressed as well. It took Drew Brees nearly 50 pass attempts to reach 275 yards at home against the Panthers on Sunday, as New Orleans continues to struggle throwing deep. After getting 8.5 YPA last season, Brees is down to 7.1 this yearâ¦Chris Ivory certainly looks like he could put up big numbers if given the opportunity, but he struggles with fumbles and in pass protection, and the Saints love their running back by committee anyway. The real question is how will Pierre Thomas be used once he returns to the lineup. Thomas is officially injury-prone, and he needs to be downgraded for it at draft tables in the futureâ¦DeAngelo Williamsâ 39-yard touchdown run was sick, with a cutback few other RBs in the league could make. Donât let Jonathan Stewartâs final stats fool you into thinking he can be used as a flex right now, as his 55-yard TD catch came on complete blown coverage, and Stewart still almost didnât score when the 10-yard line apparently tripped himâ¦Those who backed New Orleans in survivor got lucky. Not only did Steve Smith leave injured over the final 1.5 quarters, but Carolina had the ball at the Saintsâ 36-yard line on 2nd-and-8 with 1:46 left. Of course, the Panthers are awful this year and proceeded to lose eight yards over the next two plays, effectively taking them out of field goal range.
Laurence Maroney has gotten 1.3 YPC since joining Denver. Funny how badly the Broncos could use Peyton Hillisâ¦The blocking just hasnât been the same for Tennessee this season. Chris Johnson is still the clear No. 2 fantasy player (unless you prefer Arian Foster), but Adrian Peterson has definitely passed him as No. 1â¦It hasnât been easy predicting production from Broncos receivers on a weekly basis, but itâs become clear Brandon Lloyd is currently the teamâs No. 1 option. After seeing a whopping 18 targets last week, heâs now up to 40 on the year, which is the seventh most in the NFL. The Broncos have no semblance of a running game, and Kyle Orton, who is fast developing into an elite QB, is on pace to attempt 700 passes this season. Lloyd is no sure bet to remain Denverâs No. 1 WR over the rest of the year, and heâs disappointed in the past, but itâs hard not to consider him a top-25 fantasy wide receiver right nowâ¦Orton has the second most passing yards through four weeks in NFL history. The most ever is by Kurt Warner in 2000, when he managed a decent 11.5 YPA to start the season.
Terrell Owens entered Sunday with just 14 catches for 152 yards and no scores over three games, so few could have seen such an outburst (10 catches, 222 yards, one TD) coming. The Browns decided to double cover Chad Ochocinco, and Owensâ 78-yard touchdown catch came when a Cleveland corner fell down, but itâs hard to ignore 222 yards. Owens still has to deal with Carson Palmerâs declining skills and cedes plenty of targets to Ochocinco, but itâs clear he still has plenty left in the tankâ¦Peyton Hillis has averaged 3.3 yards after contact, which is tied for the fifth highest in the NFLâ¦Not sure why Cleveland is handing the QB job back to Jake Delhomme. Seneca Wallace isnât going to be their savior by any means, but at least he limits turnovers. The Browns have played competitive football so far, but Delhomme could single-handedly change that.
Pretty crazy Green Bayâs offense produced zero points over the final 35+ minutes at home against the Lionsâ¦After entering the year averaging 15.9 yards-per-catch during his career, Calvin Johnson has managed just 11.9 this season, and heâs finally healthy. At least heâs been utilized in the red zone, but I canât help but think how poorly Detroit uses such a dangerous weapon.
After another 14 targets Sunday, Mark Clayton is up to 41 on the year â good for sixth in the league. What an underrated trade by the Rams. Who knew he had such ability to contort and change positions to grab deep balls. And while his hands were previously a question mark, heâs been rock solid there too. Heâs been a steal for St. Louis and his fantasy ownersâ¦Funny how Sam Bradford is already clearly the best quarterback in his divisionâ¦Justin Forsett averaged 20.5 touches over the past two games, dominating the carries in Seattleâs backfield. Unfortunately, he failed to impress, averaging just 3.6 YPC, so the Seahawks traded for Marshawn Lynch. Expect Forsett to be nothing more than a third down back moving forward, as Lynch is likely to dominate early down work and short-yardage situations. Weâll see if he can take advantage of his new role while playing in an easier divisionâ¦Chris Long has been useless in IDP leagues so far with just one sack and eight tackles, but itâs worth noting his 22 quarterback pressures easily lead the NFL. In fact, the second most is 18. More sacks, and possibly in bunches, should be in store.
After bragging about my near 8-0 start ATS Sunday, Iâd be remiss not to reveal my losing two-team teaser, which featured the Chargers and Colts. Let me say, Iâm not the biggest Jim Caldwell fan, to say the least. There have been plenty of coaching mistakes so far in 2010, but Caldwellâs decision to call a timeout when Jacksonville had the ball with 42 seconds left on 2nd-and-2 was by far the worst yet. The Jaguars were conceding overtime! Hereâs the alternative â either the Colts win the coin toss and get the ball to start OT, or the teams are essentially in the same exact situation (Jags ball around the 25-yard line). And again, it was 2nd-and-2! Indy gave up 5.0 YPC on the day! That was indefensible, but just when I thought things couldnât get worse, Caldwell calls a timeout to âiceâ Josh Scobee when the Jagsâ special teams unit was rushing to line up for a 59-yard field goal with one second left on the play clock. They probably would have got the play off, but again, it would have been rushed. Brilliant! Caldwell is an idiotâ¦Scobeeâs 59-yarder by the way was the third longest game winning FG in the history of the NFLâ¦Peyton Manning is on pace to throw for 5,460 yards, and his lone interception this season was a perfectly thrown ball that wasnât his fault Sundayâ¦Have a game, Reggie Wayneâ¦Mike Sims-Walker was held without a catch for the second time this season, seeing just one target in the process. He has just 23 looks all year and seems to be a much smaller part of Jacksonvilleâs offense compared to last year. It would be rash to go dropping Sims-Walker, but thereâs no way he can safely be used right now either. Heâs looking like a bust.
Houston is shaping up to be an ideal opponent for your fantasy QB. Not only do they have a highly susceptible secondary (8.7 YPA, 8:2 TD:INT ratio), but the Texans continue to stop the run, which dates back to the second half of last season. Moreover, Houston is sure to put plenty of points on the board on offense, so your QB will be asked to throw frequently. Good news for Eli Manning and company in Week 5â¦If a draft were held today, Arian Foster shouldnât make it past the third pickâ¦Michael Bush appeared to take over goal-line work last week, but his value took an even bigger jump when Darren McFadden suffered a hamstring injury. Itâs supposedly not serious, but McFadden is unlikely to play in Week 5, so Bush is relevant again. For those who own both in fantasy leagues, the way these two backs have rotated injuries has been perfect so far, as the worst case scenario would be having them both healthy and in a timeshare (well, that and both being injured at the same time). As long as McFadden is sidelined, Bush is a weekly RB2.
Ryan Mathews, who was dealing with an unreported elbow injury suffered in practice last week as well as his previous ankle sprain during Sundayâs game, looks like a decent buy-low candidate. The same could be said for Chris Wellsâ¦After Derek Anderson completed just 51.8 percent of his passes, Arizona has decided to go in a different direction, naming rookie Max Hall the teamâs starting quarterback. Anderson recorded one touchdown and committed six turnovers during three games on the road this season. Larry Fitzgeraldâs fantasy value is looking down either way, but the switch here certainly canât hurt. The alternative has been a big problemâ¦I keep hearing how Vincent Jackson is unlikely to play before Week 10, but isnât the most likely scenario him sitting out the entire season? That would certainly be my best guess.
Tough break for Michael Vick, who suffered damage to his ribs last week and will miss at least one game and possibly a few more. Itâs too bad since he was playing so well, and heâs sure to get the starting job back once he returns, but this shows the greater risk involved with quarterbacks who run opposed to those who always stay in the pocket. Kevin Kolb needs to be added in fantasy leagues, but heâs a clear downgradeâ¦It must be noted just how injury-prone Ryan Torain has been throughout his career, and Keiland Williams could step into the mix as well, but those who picked up Torain last week could be sitting on a goldmine. Clinton Portisâ groin injury is serious, as heâll likely miss 4-6 weeks and quite possibly the rest of the season. Mike Shanahan has heaped praise on Torain, calling him, âA top back in the National Football League. Thereâs no question about it.â While thereâs some hyperbole there, remember it was Shanahan who drafted Torain back in 2008 in Denver, and the RB has averaged 4.6 YPC throughout his brief career. Heâs an ideal fit for Washingtonâs system, and Shanahan wants to make the Redskins a run-heavy team. Torain is a must-start this week at home against the Packers, and if he somehow manages to stay healthy, donât be surprised if heâs a top-15 fantasy back over the rest of the season.
What an ugly football game that was Sunday night. The nine first half sacks were comical, but the 14 combined penalties and six total fumbles were patheticâ¦Hakeem Nicks is the real deal and should be considered a borderline top-10 fantasy wide receiver from here on out. Donât give up on Johnny Knox â things will get better. Try to trade for him, in factâ¦Ahmad Bradshaw gained 129 rushing yards on 23 carries (5.6 YPC) against a Bears team that entered allowing the fewest YPC in football. Over the last three games, Brandon Jacobs has just 14 rushing attempts compared to 55 by Bradshaw, so this backfield belongs to the latter. Bradshaw is dealing with a sore ankle, and it remains to be seen how many carries he can withstand as a workhorse over a season, but heâs currently on pace to finish the year with 1,772 total yards and 12 touchdowns. He should be viewed as a top-12 fantasy backâ¦Chris Collinsworth actually said Jacobs has âsoft handsâ during Sundayâs telecast. What?? Jacobs has improved as a receiver, and I generally like Collinsworth, but only Shonn Greene and Michael Turner have worse hands than Jacobsâ¦Love when Al Michaels talks about the spread at the end of games like he did Sunday. Take that NFL.
Almost everyone predicted Monday nightâs game to be a shootout, so naturally, the score was 7-6 at halftime. A 28 point outburst in the third quarter eased the minds of those who took the over, and it also pleased those who used New Englandâs fantasy defense, who scored three touchdowns in three different waysâ¦BenJarvus Green-Ellis has averaged 87 rushing yards and a touchdown over the past two games, securing his role as the Patriotsâ lead back. Of course, thatâs yet to result in 25+ touches in an offense that is pass-heavy, but heâs clearly established himself as the No. 1 option (heâs never fumbled in his career), and with the trade of Randy Moss, New England may shift offensive philosophies a bit. Green-Ellis isnât going to be a workhorse like other backs in the league, but heâs the favorite for carries and goal-line work on an offense that should put up plenty of points, so heâs got valueâ¦Davone Bess has racked up 15 catches over the past two weeks, and while heâs not a dangerous downfield weapon or a major threat in the red zone, heâs suddenly a hot commodity in PPR formats. If defenses continue to focus on Brandon Marshall, Bess is Chad Henneâs next read underneath, and the wideout is actually pretty impressive, with good hands and after the catch abilityâ¦Tom Brady will continue to be an every week starter in fantasy leagues, but the loss of Randy Moss definitely hurts his value. Even when Moss wasnât catching balls, he was demanding defendersâ attention and opening up lanes underneath. While Aaron Hernandez has been highly impressive, Wes Welker isnât close to being back to 100 percent and has averaged just 8.3 yards-per-catch, and heâll see more double teams moving forward too. The team appears to be asking an awful lot from Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman. Moss must have really been a problem for New England to deal him for a third round pick in a year they are likely to make the playoffs.
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