The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

The first couple weeks of the season are my least favorite time to write about baseball. During March, it’s easy to speculate on any player and how they’ll perform in the upcoming year. And in May, there’s at least some information worth using to examine how the season is going. But in the early going, there’s really not much even worth discussing. You’ll hear everyone talk about the “small sample” problem right now, but this can’t be underestimated. What’s happened so far in the 2010 season is absolutely worthless and shouldn’t change the opinions you had before Opening Day. Well, except for two cases: injuries and role changes, and the latter mostly comes down to closers. But other than that, treat (ignore) the 30 at-bat or two-start samples like you would in mid-July and don’t let the fact they happen to have occurred at the beginning of the season cloud your judgment.

If others disagree with this notion, here are guys I’d be targeting in trades: Jay Bruce, Elvis Andrus, Grady Sizemore, Julio Borbon, Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Nolasco and Jake Peavy. I’d also be selling: Scott Podsednik, Vernon Wells, Jason Heyward, Max Scherzer and Fausto Carmona.

In my high stakes league (WCOF), with a $200,000 grand prize, the three closers I drafted were Frank Francisco, Mike Gonzalez and Jason Frasor, which hasn’t been a good thing over the first 10 days of the season. Normally, I typically either wait longer to address the position or punt closers altogether at the draft table, but you simply can’t ignore a category in a league like this – where there’s no trading allowed and you are competing against multiple leagues for the grand prize (punting isn’t an option). But the early returns have hardly changed my original stance, to say the least. And it’s not like I targeted that trio, but rather, I let the draft dictate whom I’d grab at the “closer” position. And all three of these guys actually entered with strong career peripherals, but the worst week for a closer to struggle is the first one, and even if they pitch up to their capability the rest of the way, if their role is changed (i.e., what inning the manager decides to use them), their fantasy value changes irreparably. Forget how ridiculous it is to judge a reliever based on 70 inning sample sizes – imagine doing so over 1.5 weeks: Did they enter with a one-run or three-run lead? What stadiums have they pitched in so far? Was it the bottom of the order or the middle due up when they were summoned? I hate drafting closers. I guess Mariano Rivera should be treated like a top-40 fantasy player, since he’s just so much safer as a contributor in saves (not to mention the other three cats) than any other player in baseball.

Regarding Mike Gonzalez, he hasn’t looked right since spring training, with his velocity way down. I’d stash Koji Uehara if possible – he’s a sleeper to rack up saves this season.

If closers have been the most maddening position to start the season, catchers are a close second. I’ve personally installed a Chris Iannetta/Miguel Olivo platoon in my daily leagues, but that does little good for those with smaller rosters or in weekly formats. And even Iannetta owners think people who drafted Mike Napoli are getting screwed. And I haven’t mentioned Miguel Montero’s injury yet. Unless it’s a 12-team league with a 1-C slot, Chris Snyder needs to be added; he’ll be a fine replacement for those who suffered Montero’s loss (and while he doesn’t possess as much upside and will likely hurt your BA, in a way, he might even be a better option, since he’s looking at a greater percentage of starts than Montero was). I still say Desmond Jennings is the best position player to stash right now, but Carlos Santana is a close second.

I know complaining about Joe Morgan’s commentary is a little like criticizing Bill Simmons – everyone’s done it, and it’s getting old because it’s such an easy target. But I must indulge here. During ESPN’s Sunday night telecast, Morgan argued Ryan Ludwick was a terrible choice to bat second in the Cardinals’ lineup – this in itself isn’t completely unreasonable, as Ludwick has a career OBP of .340. But Morgan’s reasoning is that a No. 2 hitter should forgo power for the willingness to move the leadoff runner over when need be. This obviously makes less sense considering Albert Pujols follows in the order, which means two things: advancing the leadoff hitter one station means the best hitter in the game will be less likely to see hittable pitches, and it also ignores the fact Ludwick will see more fastballs in this spot. According to pitch type (via Fangraphs), Ludwick was well above average against fastballs last year (12.5 wFB) and was the fifth-best hitter in all of baseball versus heaters in 2008 (34.9 wFB). But my criticism of Morgan – expecting him to realize these things – is obviously quite unreasonable. No, what really got me was when Ludwick took a walk during this situation (runner on second, no outs), Morgan considered this a bad outcome, stating a bunt (or groundout to second, presumably) would have been better. Unbelievable. Where’s FJM when we need them? (Actually, “Parks and Recreation” has become so good, I can forgive Michael Schur).

While I’ve preached how ridiculous it is to look at stats over the 2010 season, it’s worth noting some are better than others, and what happens before the ball is put into play (which puts luck far more into the equation) is a little more worthwhile. To wit, Pablo Sandoval’s early plate appearances have been highly encouraging. Sure, his current BA is certain to come down, but here is his O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) over the past three years, with the last one being 2010: 53.8%, 41.5%, 38.3%. Here is his Z-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone) over that span: 76.9%, 82.9%, 84.6%. Put simply – he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and swinging at more pitches inside the zone. Of course, his former approach has led to a career .336/.385/.548 line, so it’s hard to argue against it. Still, his strikeouts are way down in the early going this year, which has to have fantasy owners salivating for someone with a career .356 BABIP. Panda has just one long ball on the year and has the disadvantage of playing in a park that suppresses homers as well as hitting in one of the worst lineups in all of baseball, but no one should be surprised if he’s one of the three best hitters in the National League in 2010. Pretty impressive for someone who’s fat, a switch-hitter equally good from both sides, just 23 years old and went undrafted.

Sticking with the Giants – Tim Lincecum gave up a homer at home Sunday for the first time since 2008. That’s pretty crazy. Additionally, the team’s leadoff hitter (Aaron Rowand) has zero walks over 40 at-bats this season.

Sticking with O-Swing% – Colby Rasmus has gone from 25.9% his rookie year to 8.6% so far this season, which is a huge improvement. He had a 95:36 K:BB ratio over 474 at-bats in 2009, while this year it’s 5:9. He’s also already attempted half as many SB attempts in 140 fewer games. This is all highly encouraging, to say the least. A major breakout looks to be in store.

If you lose a first round pick in fantasy football, it’s much more crushing than losing an early round pick in fantasy baseball, since it’s so much deeper. But I’m sorry, this needs to be said: baseball players are a bunch of wussies (and by wussies I mean pussies) to the point of pathetic. Please just look over the litany of hurt players over the first 10 days. What a joke. Easily my least favorite aspect of participating in fantasy sports.

If you’re a believer in karma: Milton Bradley entered Tuesday as the only player in baseball with a .000 BABIP (this further validates you shouldn’t draft Ben Rapistberger on your fantasy football team this year).

Ozzie Guillen is a great quote, but he’s already asked his second (or third) best hitter (Gordon Beckham) to sacrifice bunt twice this season. That’s not a sound decision. Even more egregious, how did he let current MLB stolen base leader Scott Podsednik get away?!

It sure sounds like Jacoby Ellsbury’s injury isn’t serious, but I’m adding Jeremy Hermida in any league he’s available in regardless. Mike Cameron and J.D. Drew are both injury risks, and DH at-bats may also open up if David Ortiz keeps performing like he has so far (although I’m still not sold on his demise). Hermida hasn’t come close to reaching his expectations as a former No. 11 overall pick, and he’s now entering the more difficult league, but consider this: his career OPS on the road (.822) is more than 100 points higher than at home (.721), so Land Shark Stadium (what an awful name) has really taken a toll on his numbers, which is especially encouraging since he’s now playing in a highly favorable park for hitters. He’ll hit lower in the lineup, but it’s obviously far superior to the Florida one he’s accustomed to, so only playing time stands in the way of Hermida being a serious fantasy contributor. If you’re in a daily league where you can use him when he starts (and exclusively against righties), you should get top-25ish type production from an outfielder during those times.