By Dalton Del Don
TIER ONE
1. Kellen Winslow – Winslow only caught 55 percent of the passes thrown his way last year, but that’s more to do with all those targets (148) than lack of skill. He’s essentially Cleveland’s No. 2 wideout, and considering the team’s poor defense and Braylon Edwards taking up much of the opponent’s attention, it’s a great situation to be in. All those knee surgeries may eventually catch up to him, but he’s the top rated TE for 2008.
2. Jason Witten – Witten’s in a similar situation as Winslow, acting as the No. 2 option in the passing game while playing in a great aerial attack with an elite WR beside him. Despite last year’s seven scores, he’s rarely targeted in the red zone, so he’s a better option in yardage heavy leagues.
3. Antonio Gates – He’s still the best, but the lingering toe/foot injury knocks him down a couple of pegs. With Chris Chambers’ arrival and the emergence of Vincent Jackson, there’s also more options in the passing game than ever before in San Diego. The injury is a legitimate concern.
TIER TWO
4. Tony Gonzalez – Thought to be on the downside of his career, Gonzalez’s 2007 season was one of his best ever, thanks in no small part to a league-leading 154 targets. Unlike running backs, receivers can still be effective into their 30s, so there’s no reason to expect a total collapse this year. Because Kansas City is likely to be playing from behind early and often, plenty of more looks should follow.
5. Jeremy Shockey – Shockey can’t stay healthy, so there will be safer options here. However, the move to New Orleans was a big boost to his fantasy value. The Giants frequently asked him to block more than he liked, and he immediately becomes the Saints’ No. 2 option in the passing game. His YPA is typically disappointing for a perceived star, but New Orleans throws the ball more than any team in the league, and you can be sure Sean Payton will effectively use him downfield.
6. Chris Cooley – Cooley is very solid, especially in TD-heavy leagues, but he doesn’t get targeted like the other elite tight ends. Moreover, Al Saunders’ departure is of some concern. Still, he’s a safe pick.
7. Vernon Davis – Davis doesn’t have great hands, but his physical ability is second to none. Of course, that doesn’t always translate to success on the gridiron, but he’s still at the stage of his career where a huge leap forward is possible. New OC Mike Martz has never utilized the tight end position, but he’s all about creating mismatches, and Davis is the team’s best playmaker in the passing game. Quarterback figures to be a big problem in San Francisco, but that doesn’t mean VD can’t still breakout.
8. Owen Daniels – Playing in perhaps the league’s most underrated passing attack, Daniels got 8.17 YPA last year, which was higher than both Winslow and Witten. In this his third year, expect a big leap. And don’t punish him for last year’s subpar TD total (three), as touchdowns can be fluky. Remember, Witten had just one score in 2006. At 6-3, 247 lbs, there’s no reason Daniels can’t be utilized in the red zone.
9. Tony Scheffler – Scheffler’s lingering foot problems aren’t without concern, but his 8.45 YPA last year reveals a future star. If that’s not enough, he caught a ridiculous 75 percent of the passes thrown his way – both marks better than Gates. Of course, that came in a more limited sample size, but Denver has produced huge TE numbers before, and Jay Cutler is a rising superstar. In your draft, you’ll likely be able to wait much longer than where Daniels and Scheffler are placed here, so keep that in mind. Since tight ends have a limited upside, it’s best to wait and target one of these two.
10. Todd Heap – Heap’s extremely productive when on the field, but he’s now missed an average of five games over the past four seasons. He’s also already dealing with a nagging calf injury and has a weak quarterback throwing to him. Still, he’s not a bad target if he falls coming off such a down year.
11. Dallas Clark – Clark scored 11 touchdowns last year and plays in the prolific Indy offense, but don’t go chasing last season’s stats. For one, he’s injury-prone. Also, his catch rate (57 percent) and YPA (6.10) are subpar, and he’s unlikely to find himself in such an ideal situation as last year, as either Marvin Harrison will return to health and/or Anthony Gonzalez will develop even further. A remarkable 25 percent of Clark’s targets last year came in the red zone, so he’s totally reliant on scoring.
12. Alge Crumpler – Crumpler should bounce back after coming to a Tennessee system that loves to feature the tight end. He’s already developing a nice rapport with Vince Young, who figures to dump off to him frequently. There isn’t much upside, but Crumpler could reemerge as a TE1 option.
TIER THREE
13. Greg Olsen
14. Heath Miller
15. Randy McMichael
16. Zach Miller
17. Ben Utecht
18. Ben Watson
19. Donald Lee
20. L.J. Smith
Leave a Reply