RotoScoop.com

Top-40

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. David Wright
3. Jose Reyes
4. Hanley Ramirez
5. Miguel Cabrera
6. Chase Utley
7. Matt Holliday
8. Ryan Howard
9. Jimmy Rollins
10. B.J. Upton
11. Ryan Braun
12. Prince Fielder
13. Johan Santana
14. David Ortiz
15. Albert Pujols
16. Carl Crawford
17. Grady Sizemore
18. Jake Peavy
19. Brandon Phillips
20. Alfonso Soriano
21. Nick Markakis
22. Mark Teixeira
23. Erik Bedard
24. Vladimir Guerrero
25. Ichiro Suzuki
26. Carlos Beltran
27. Justin Morneau
28. Carlos Lee
29. Curtis Granderson
30. Chone Figgins
31. Robinson Cano
32. Victor Martinez
33. Russell Martin
34. Josh Beckett
35. Alex Rios
36. Lance Berkman
37. Brandon Webb
38. Carlos Guillen
39. Rickie Weeks
40. Carlos Pena

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23 responses to “Top-40”

  1. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    If it’s a one catcher league, then I’d probably wait longer on those two backstops. Also, if you think you can get a guy like Weeks later on, fine, then wait, but this is my own one-man mock, and it’s how I’d draft em.

  2. JR Ewing Avatar
    JR Ewing

    Rickie Weeks at 39 is just way too high. I’m pretty high on him but so wow that’s really high. So far he’s shown potential to be a 20-30 guy with a low batting average, which puts him about in Kinsler territory. Again, that’s just potential. He’s never hit 20 HR nor stolen 30 bases yet in his career, so drafting him as though you expect those numbers out of him (or even more) is setting yourself up to have zero upside and a whole lotta room for downside and disappointment.

    And that’s not even considering the fact that you just have to put some injury risk on this guy. I’d say ranking him 40 is like ranking R Braun #3. He could definitely produce those numbers, but he’s gotta max out for you to break even in value.

  3. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    I am torn on this rickie weeks kid. His career is garbage. He is totally injury prone, Seriously, what are the odds that he plays 150 games? He was left for dead in least years drafts. He did nothing last year, until the last two weeks when he went absolutely insane, i mean seriously, we wouldnt have believed it if arod went off like that. Weeks batted 500 and slugged 1000 his senior year in college, and he has crushed the minor leagues. I see crazy potential, but also an extremely high chance of disappointment. My draft is next week and I am undecided on this guy.

  4. Lister Avatar
    Lister

    Dope. Thanks so much for responding so quickly with this.

    I have to say I see you being overaggressive on Weeks, though I’m bullish about what he can do *if he stays healthy*. I think his ADP of 110 or so is a classic underrating, though the guy has a well earned reputation for keeping himself off the field. I love picking aggressively with dudes up the middle (hello brian mccann and bj upton) b ut i don’t think I can justify weeks in my top 75. I’d put him around there, though – late 6th to early 8th type guy.

    I have to say I have Santana well within the 1st round. If I have, say, the 7th pick and he’s still there, I’m taking him ahead of slugging 1B and OF types. Monster year.

    Thanks so much though. Happy to see you’re giving David Wright props. Another 30-30 year w/130+ RBI is in order.

    Go Mets.

  5. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, Trump. Weeks last SIX WEEKS were flipping amazing, if you had him on your team in a H2H, you chances of victory essentially doubled. I’m talking 9 dingers and 10 steals in the last 30 days alone. Extrapolate that and you get 50/60. Can he do that? Of course not. Can he do 30/40? I don’t see why not. He’s already launching bombs off guys like fellow disappointment Felix Hernandez.

    The fact of the matter is that he can take a walk like no one’s business, so he’s going to be insulated against really bad streaks b/c he’ll at least still get on base and have a green light to run. Obviously he’s going to score a boatload of runs if he stays healthy, backed by Fielder, Braun and Hart.

    It’s myopic to hold his early career shortcomings against him. Many young guys struggle (hell, if you go on last year, apparently Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin are both complete crap), and his situation was compounded by hand and wrist injuries. Since his greatest weapon is probably his immensely quick wrists, it stands to reason that those sorts of setbacks would effect him even more. But he’s healthy now. This is the first offseason in his pro career in which he hasn’t had to undergo surgery and/or rehab.

    I don’t see any reason this kid can’t hit .280-plus with a .900ish OPS. Add in the speed and he’s a terrifying weapon. Guys like Keith Law are forecasting a massive breakout from him. If you don’t value him at 40, fine, I completely understand. I might not take him there myself, at least in a redraft. But you can’t wait too long, because someone else in your league will buy into the hope of him making good on his promise. And lord, if he does, this is your one and only shot to get him cheap. If this kid puts up a “better than Sizemore” kind of year, out of the 2B slot, do you think there is any prayer of him lasting past the first round, or of his owner letting him go in a keeper? I say no way. If he truly “maxes out”, as you put it, JR, a #39 pick will look like a complete heist.

    In parting, allow me to leave you with this one thought: BJ Upton.

  6. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Also, I’m happy to see certain other guys plummeting in this list, esp. Albert “future zipper recipient” Pujols and Lance Berkman, who seems to be held together with duct tape and prayer.

  7. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Lister – I have no problem with Johan going higher. None at all. I used to draft him top-3 in years past, and that was before he moved to the NL. I’ve just personally switched my philosophy to going with more offense early and waiting on the more risky SP position. Then again, Johan has never had a hint of arm trouble. I could see him going top-5, really.

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I understand Weeks is both injury-prone and a BA risk, so people wanting certainty and safety should be nowhere near this aggressive with him. However, I recently kept him over guys like Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu in a keeper-league, and names like that would probably appear on my 40-50 range, so I had to rank accordingly.

    Dreamweapon does a good job of highlighting his upside, which is massive. Stolen base rate, walk rate, lots of good signs here. Check out his final six weeks again.

  9. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    Dreamweapon:
    Nobody disagrees with the fact that weeks has a very high ceiling. That must be discounted by the fact that he has 3 straight years of under 410 at bats. He also hit .235 last year.
    Also, he hit 7 homers and stole 6 bases in the last two weeks. Thus, it was an unbelievable two weeks, not an amazing 6 weeks.
    How high were you or anyone else on him last year? Not very. Everything rests on those last two weeks. That is sketchy. I think I will have him in at least one league this year, but there is lots of risk.

  10. Lister Avatar
    Lister

    just had my first draft of the year. a tune-up against randoms on yahoo

    12 teams, 5×5, killed it, standard yahoo settings

    C: McCann, R. Hernandez
    1B: Big Papi, (Morneau)
    2B: Brandon Phillips
    3B: Wright, Andy Laroche
    SS: Lugo
    OF: Markakis, Francouer, Fukodome, Burrell, J. Upton, J.D. Drew
    UTIL: Morneau

    SP: Smoltz, King Felix, Sheets, Phil Hughes, Garza
    RP: Mariano, Marmol

    What do people think of Fukodome?

    Pecota weighted mean puts him at
    81R-15-58RBI
    9 SB
    .289 AVG
    .905 OPS
    .303 EqA (!!!)

  11. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Look, my point is, if you want to play it safe, you’re going to end up with someone like Vernon Wells in the 7th round where Weeks should have gone, in my view. Then you’ll end up having to take a guy like Jeff Kent or Dustin Pedroia to fill 2nd, while the guy who took Weeks will use his pick in the round where you took Kent to take another toolsy upside guy like Josh Hamilton or Matt Kemp. My guess is, at the end of the season, Educated Gambler Guy is going to have a giant shit-eatin’ grin on his face, while Safety Dance Guy will be staring at his shoes like a friggin’ mope.

    Playing it safe is fine, for the first four or five rounds. Beyond that, drafting pedestrian, vanilla “known quantities” is a self-defeating strategy. It is a guaranteed ticket to mediocrity. Safe players are safe for a reason–there is very little variance in their play. But, for the same reasons they lack a deep basement, they also lack a high ceiling, and are entirely replaceable, except in incredibly deep leagues. Tooled-up 5-cat players are not, especially ones with MI eligibility. If you are aiming for a 4th place finish, yes, by all means, play it safe. You will almost be guaranteed to finish in the top third of your league. Every year. And I guess that’s good, to some people. By taking some risks there is a chance of flameout, sure, and maybe every couple of years you will flub it entirely and miss the playoffs or finish in the bottom half of your league. But you’ll also hit some years, and come home with some hardware and cash. In keeper/dynasty leagues, the calculus skews even further in favor the risk takers. I will take a championship and three 6th place finishes over four 4th place finishes every time. We are fantasy GMs, no actuaries or insurance adjusters. It’s better to be shot down than to quietly rust out on the runway.

    The meek will inherit the Earth, they say. That’s all well and good. The bold, my friend, will reach out and seize the heavens.

  12. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Fukudome gets me about as wet as the Atacama desert, if that says anything, listerine.

  13. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    That was inspirational. I feel like shouting out YES WE CAN

  14. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Save your shout and just vote for Obama, it’s pretty much the same thing.

  15. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Lister – Team looks loaded to me. Nice work.

    Fukodome strikes me as the type of player who will be better in real life than in fantasy, although his claim that he’s going to run more here gives some optimism. He’ll be a solid player, and if the Cubbies bat him high in the order, he should score a ton of runs with what I’m guessing will be a high OBP. Still, in most leagues I’ve seen, he’s gone much higher than I was willing to take him. There’s a major lack of HR/SB there.

  16. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – Fantastic speech. I am officially inspired. I agree with the underlying message very much so.

  17. Lister Avatar
    Lister

    Yeah, I clicked “select* for Fukudome with great apprehension. It’s a team I will probably never attend to at any rate. But one must get one’s draft warm ups in.

    I think Piniella is going to bat him 3rd, that’s what I’ve heard at least. BP and co. like him a lot there but, needless to say, the rest of the batting order defies logic.

  18. Brett Avatar
    Brett

    DDD,

    Noon Pacific Tomorrow.

    Brett

  19. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    I think I like it for the most part. Weeks is a tad high for my tastes, but I’d certainly take the gamble on him…just not 4th round. Guillen is a great SS pick this year in redraft leagues.

    I just did my first draft…dynasty league, 11 teams roto, with OBP instead of AVG, and adding Total Bases and Holds:

    1 10 Utley, Chase (PHI)
    2 13 Sizemore, Grady (CLE)
    3 32 Dunn, Adam (CIN)
    4 35 Granderson,Curtis (DET)
    5 54 Hart, Corey (MIL)
    6 57 Mauer, Joe (MIN)
    7 76 Hernandez,Felix (SEA)
    8 79 Furcal, Rafael (LAD)
    9 98 Liriano, Francisco (MIN)
    10 101 Smoltz, John (ATL)
    11 120 Bay, Jason (PIT)
    12 123 Thome, Jim (CHA)
    13 142 Fields, Josh (CHA)
    14 145 Soriano, Rafael (ATL)
    15 164 Bonderman, Jeremy (DET)
    16 167 Broxton, Jonathan (LAD)
    17 186 Hoffman, Trevor (SD)
    18 189 Lidge, Brad (PHI)
    19 208 Sherrill, George (BAL)
    20 211 Lopez, Felipe (WAS)
    21 230 Johnson, Randy (ARI)
    22 233 Lugo, Julio (BOS)
    23 252 Morrow, Brandon (SEA)
    24 255 Carpenter, Chris (STL)
    25 274 Wood, Kerry (CHN)
    26 277 Church, Ryan (NYN)
    27 296 Quentin, Carlos (CHA)
    28 299 Guillen, Jose (KC)
    29 318 Johnson, Nick (WAS)
    30 321 Embree, Alan (OAK)
    31 340 Wilkerson, Brad (SEA)

    I moved Dunn way up in the OBP league, and felt Granderson was a steal with a league that counts total bases. Prospects were going crazy early, so I was very happy with Hart in the 5th as well. I think I’m really going to go pitching later than usual this year, though I couldn’t land the McGowans and Greinkes later like I planned. I didn’t end up with any pure prospects, but I still think I got enough elite youth…and now I get to root for Liriano again.

  20. Lister Avatar
    Lister

    It’s pretty remarkable how late Lugo is going.

    The guy, if nothing else, gets you 30 steals and yet he’s being valued with the likes of Chris Carpenter.

  21. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Ya I really like Lugo as a value pick this year…That team looks ridiculously good to me. Filled with a bunch of guys I want on my teams. I like the Broxton before Hoffman move. I’d be pretty shocked if you don’t win the saves cat for years to come. In a dynasty league, Carpenter in the 24th round should really pay off.

  22. Eddie Avatar
    Eddie

    “Look, my point is, if you want to play it safe, you’re going to end up with someone like Vernon Wells in the 7th round where Weeks should have gone, in my view. Then you’ll end up having to take a guy like Jeff Kent or Dustin Pedroia to fill 2nd, while the guy who took Weeks will use his pick in the round where you took Kent to take another toolsy upside guy like Josh Hamilton or Matt Kemp.”

    This is absolutely positively EXACTLY what happened to me in my draft. I begrudgingly picked Vernon Wells in the 7th, hoping Weeks would fall to me later. He was picked in the next round. I ended up with Dustin Pedroia. I mourn my 7th round pick to this day, until I manage to pry Weeks away from his not-100%-sure owner. Agh.

  23. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    That’s pretty crazy.

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