By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
1. New York Yankees 97-65
Overview: Having Carl Pavano act as your Opening Day starter doesn’t scream World Series favorite, but so is the case with the Yankees this season. The staff isn’t deep, but the lineup is murderous – one of the very best ever – and should be more than enough to carry them deep into October.
Hitting: Top to bottom, this is the best lineup baseball has seen in years and maybe decades. A guy who hit .342 last year is their No. 8 hitter. And while first base was their one glaring hole on offense, it just got a whole lot more potent against lefties with Josh Phelps set to platoon instead of Andy Phillips. With the rest of that lineup, the Yankees can afford having light-hitting Doug Mientkiewicz in there for his glove when a right-hander is on the mound. Here are the on-base percentages of the Yankees’ top-8 hitters from last season: .359, .417, .424, .392, .413, .393, .374, .365. Leadoff hitter Johnny Damon was the worst at getting on base of the bunch, but it’s safe to say there won’t be many 1-2-3 innings by Yankee hitters this season.
Pitching: Admittedly a weak point, New York’s rotation enters the season in shambles, as Chien-Ming Wang, already due for some regression, is hurt and Andy Pettitte is ailing. Still, Mike Mussina returned to form last year, and Phil Hughes is the best prospect in baseball, so they have plenty of gas left in reserve. Also, Pettitte may not put up gaudy regular season stats now back in the AL East, but in a playoff game, he’d still be one of the 10 best options in the game. Mariano Rivera is pitching for a fat contract, and the biggest X-factor of all is Roger Clemens, who I give an 80 percent chance of wearing pinstripes come June.
2. Boston Red Sox 95-67 — Wild Card
Overview: The best second place team in the history of the game? That label may ring true come season’s end, as Boston boasts a potent lineup and a rebuilt pitching staff that should be able to dominate.
Hitting: The lineup isn’t as good as New York’s, with Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek and Dustin Pedroia clear downgrades at their respective positions. Still, it’s the next best that the league has to offer, as even if Coco Crisp or JD Drew succumbs to injury, an increasingly likely result, Wily Mo Pena is ready to step in. Big Papi gets the pub and deservedly so, but Manny Ramirez is Boston’s best hitter. His health and craziness, er, happiness, will go a long way toward deciding the Red Sox’s place in the standings.
Pitching: I was no fan of Boston’s decision to move Jonathan Papelbon into the pen, but the rotation still has three arms that could prove very difficult to beat in a playoff series. Dice-K looks like the real deal, and Curt Schilling is pitching for one last contract. But Josh Beckett is the difference maker here, as he’s rediscovered his curveball this spring. Health remains a concern, but Beckett has as much upside as anyone else on the staff. After Papelbon, the bullpen doesn’t have many inspiring options.
3. Toronto Blue Jays 84-78
Overview: They have a terrific heart of the order, a legitimate staff ace (maybe two) and a dominant closer. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays are stuck in the AL East, so third place is as good as it’s going to get.
Hitting: There’s no way Frank Thomas is hitting 39 homers again this season, as even in a DH role he’s likely to spend a DL stint or two, but he will be a force when in the lineup. Vernon Wells continues to progress, and his best season is probably yet to come. The best hitter of the bunch, however, may very well turn out to be Alex Rios, but he’ll need to put his past injury troubles behind him. The middle of this lineup is potent, but the top and bottom is pretty weak. There’s a good chance Royce Clayton is the worst hitting shortstop in the game.
Pitching: If Roy Halladay can put up Cy Young caliber seasons while pitching in the AL East, imagine what his numbers would look like if he played in the NL. A.J. Burnett has the stuff of an ace, but he’s never been able to reach his potential, in large part to health problems. No. 5 starter Josh Towers posted an 8.42 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over 62 innings last year, so it’s safe to say the back half of their rotation isn’t very good.
4. Baltimore Orioles 71-91
Overview: There’s been some positive talk among baseball circles regarding the Orioles this season, but it’s awfully tough playing in such a competitive division.
Hitting: The lineup is solid overall, but nothing jumps out at you. Melvin Mora is declining, and Corey Patterson is only valuable in fantasy baseball, as he has a career OBP less than .300 and strikes out far too often. I like Nick Markakis to produce good counting stats slated in the third spot in the lineup, but he probably won’t reach his All-Star potential until 2008 or 2009. Miguel Tejada batted a career-best .330 last season, but it came at the expense of extra-base hits, as his Isolated Power (.168) was the second worst mark of his career.
Pitching: They have a great foundation in Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen, but Steve Trachsel and Jaret Wright both could finish with ERAs more than 5.0. Still, the top-2 might start realizing their potential as soon as this season, as Bedard posted a 3.10 ERA after the All-Star break last year, and his strikeout rate is strong. Cabrera, meanwhile, features one of the nastiest arsenals in the game. Maybe corrective eye surgery improves his command, and if it does, watch out, because Cabrera is flat-out filthy. His strikeout potential is literally second to none, and his spring results have been encouraging. Give Leo Mazzone a mulligan last year and expect better progress from Baltimore’s young hurlers this time around.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 63-99
Overview: Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes and Scott Kazmir form a nice young nucleus, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.
Hitting: Baldelli has the ability to hit .320 and go 30/30. What’s more likely, however, is that one of his hamstrings falls off the bone. It might’ve happened while I typed this. I liked Jonny Gomes as a bounce back candidate after a shoulder injury disrupted a big season last year, but he’s struggling so far this spring. Still, he did enough to beat out Jorge Cantu, who is surprisingly headed to the minors. When you can’t hit or play defense, that sort of thing happens. As a result, BJ Upton’s fantasy value just shot through the roof. Even if he struggles playing second and won’t get on base at a very good clip, his 40-50 steal potential makes him quite a valuable fantasy asset right now. Ty Wigginton slated to bat fourth means Tampa Bay has the worst cleanup hitter in baseball by a wide margin.
Pitching: Health is the only obstacle standing in Scott Kazmir’s way to stardom, but things fall apart after him. It’s a rotation that should get roughed up more often than not, and a bullpen in flux. Seth McClung blew yet another chance, but the more surprising guy sent to the minors is Chad Orvella, who allowed just one run over 10 1/3 innings this spring. Questioning Tampa Bay’s decision-making isn’t even worth the time anymore. Al Reyes looks like the current favorite for saves in the Devil Rays’ pen, but Juan Salas could later emerge as the best option.
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