The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Let me be clear, I don’t think much of Reggie Bush as an NFL player, as he’s been nothing but a disappointment since getting drafted out of USC. A 3.7 YPC mark over 418 career carries is ugly, and for such an explosive college player, it’s truly surprising he has just one rush for 40-plus yards over three seasons. Those numbers look even worse when you consider Bush has compiled them while playing for an offense that has ranked No. 1, No. 4 and No. 1 during his NFL tenure. That said, he seems to be entering 2009 as a somewhat undervalued fantasy commodity. Bush actually totaled 600 yards with five touchdowns over the first six games last year before going down with a knee injury in Week 7 that essentially ruined his season – that’s a 1,600-yard and 13-touchdown pace over a full season. Of course, he’s missed 10 games over the past two years, so durability is a major issue. Still, that’s big upside for someone typically going in the fourth round (42.06 ADP). Pierre Thomas will no doubt be more in the mix, since he’s by far the superior runner, but Bush was also on pace for a whopping 109 receptions, so he’s a PPR monster who is going to be a major part of what was the league’s No. 1 passing attack in 2008. Bush has quietly gone from overrated to underrated, at least in fantasy circles.

Most would consider there to be a big three with the quarterback position this year – Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. While I won’t argue that, I would contend Aaron Rodgers makes it a big four. Because of his weapons on offense and ability to run the ball (207 rushing yards with four scores last season), I actually think he has more upside than Manning, but because Rodgers is a much bigger health risk, he remains outside the big three for now. Still, this is a QB who got 7.5 YPA with a 63.6 completion percentage and 32 touchdowns in a season he entered having never started a game in the league. Over his final four games, Rodgers got a staggering 8.6 YPA while tossing eight touchdowns. Donald Driver may be aging, but Greg Jennings has established himself as a star, Jordy Nelson impressed as a rookie, and James Jones is an overlooked talent who will finally be healthy after a knee injury limited him throughout 2008, so the Packers are loaded at wide receiver. Rodgers could blow up.

I’m a huge Clinton Portis fan, drafting him No. 1 overall in my home league during his second year in the league when he was typically going 5-10 spots lower. He rewarded me with an epic playoff performance, going off for 254 yards and five touchdowns during a Week 14 game against the Chiefs, so he will always have a special place in my heart. Portis is a fantastic blocker and consistently willing to play through pain, but with an ADP of 16.20, there’s no chance he’ll end up on any of my teams in 2009. At age 27, Portis is hardly old, even for a position for the young. However, since he was worked so hard early on, his career mileage (2,052 carries) is frightening. He averaged just 2.9 YPC over the last five games last year, failing to record a single run of more than 15 yards over that span. And while that doesn’t necessarily suggest the end is here – after all, an offseason of rest could lead to some rejuvenation – Portis’ inactivity in the passing game has become a concern (he only broke 20 yards receiving in one game in 2008). Moreover, his 667 carries over the past two seasons easily lead the league. In fact, it’s 60 more than the second most (LaDainian Tomlinson). He has four 325-plus carry campaigns over the past five years, making him a significant injury risk. Since Portis also plays in an extremely tough division, let someone else take him.

Larry Fitzgerald is the best all-around wide receiver in the NFL today, and what he did in last year’s postseason was special (30 catches, 546 yards, seven touchdowns). However, I give Calvin Johnson the slight edge when it comes to my No. 1 fantasy receiver entering 2009. For one, Fitzgerald’s numbers drop when Anquan Boldin plays alongside him (Fitz scored six touchdowns during 12 games with Boldin in the lineup last regular season and six touchdowns in four games without him). Of course, Boldin could get traded (unlikely) or get hurt again (more likely), but it’s still something to consider. Moreover, last season marked just the second time since 2001 that Kurt Warner played in more than 10 games, which was also the last time he played in all 16 contests (which he’s done only three times during his 11-year career). Matt Leinart, who I actually like as a deep sleeper, has supposedly impressed during the offseason, so it’s not like Fitzgerald’s numbers would plummet when the inevitable Warner injury occurs, but it’s yet another note of just how perfectly things went for the Cardinals (and Fitz) in 2008. As for Johnson, it really shouldn’t be underestimated just how impressive he was last season for a sophomore (8.81 YPA despite a 52% reception percentage thanks to terrible quarterbacks). His 1,331 receiving yards were fifth most in the NFL, and Johnson matched Fitzgerald’s league-leading 12 touchdowns despite just 12 red-zone targets and two goal-line looks (Fitzgerald had 40 and 10, respectively). Sure, Detroit figures to once again have poor quarterback play, but if Johnson can put up those numbers with Dan Orlovksy taking the majority of the Lions’ snaps last year, the situation can’t get any worse. And while he’s surely to make mistakes, Matthew Stafford’s strong arm is likely to be a decent upgrade. Because running back is such a volatile position, I’d consider Johnson with the first pick in a dynasty league.

I don’t like writing off 26-year-old running backs coming off a bad year just one season removed from scoring 15 touchdowns, but Joseph Addai won’t be on any of my teams in 2009. After all, this is a back who has averaged a paltry 3.98 YPC over the past two seasons despite playing for a potent Indy offense. He’s a solid receiver but also extremely fragile, effectively missing six games last year while banged up in numerous others. Meanwhile, a team that clearly needed help on the defensive side didn’t draft a running back in the first round not to play him. I understand veterans often get treated with unnecessary seniority in the NFL, so I fully expect Addai to retain the starting job, at least initially. Whether it is an injury or ineffectiveness, Donald Brown is going to get an opportunity, and his ceiling is much higher than the mediocre Addai. Brown is coming off an impressive junior year at Connecticut, leading the nation with 2,083 yards. His 4.51 40 at the Combine was faster than Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells and Shonn Greene, so he’s much more explosive than Addai. And as for the goal line, Addai has just a 32% conversion rate there throughout his career, so that role is up for grabs as well. Addai may be the safer pick, but he has rushed for 80 yards just one time over his last 21 games, and his affinity for the trainer’s room can’t be underestimated. Without even factoring in how much cheaper he’ll typically come (44.74 vs. 84.96 ADP), I’d draft Brown over Addai without thinking twice.

No one is a bigger Jay Cutler fan than me, and I plan on talking about the Bears’ situation more in the future, but one aspect of the trade that has been driving me crazy is the running game. While I consider Matt Forte the No. 3 player on the board in fantasy drafts, I cringe every time I hear about how the one area Cutler upgraded in offense with the trade to Chicago is in the running game. While I do like Forte and expect him to perform even better in 2009 thanks to the huge upgrade at QB, that statement is blatantly false. The Bears averaged 3.9 YPC last season, ranking 27th in the NFL, whereas the Broncos averaged 4.8 YPC, ranking second in the league. I guess it just seems like Chicago was better because it was largely one player accumulating the stats, which is obviously a good thing in fantasy leagues but totally meaningless in real football.

If you want a deep sleeper, look no further than Josh Morgan. His overall numbers may not jump off the page last year (319 receiving yards, three scores), but a huge preseason was ruined by a virus that was originally held quiet yet later revealed a loss of 15 pounds – something that was clearly serious. Later a groin injury held him back, but when on the field, Morgan did nothing but impress, averaging an elite 16.0 yards-per-catch. He’s since dominated during OTAs and looks like a future star. Of course, the 49ers are likely to be a run-first team and drafted Michael Crabtree and re-signed Isaac Bruce, but make no mistake the two best players will start (Crabtree and Morgan), and the one with more experience may be more productive in 2009, although no doubt Crabtree has a higher long-term ceiling. Alex Smith actually opened eyes during OTAs, and he’s finally got a healthy shoulder (and was dealing with his best friend committing suicide last year, which wasn’t reported), so stranger things have happened than a QB finally developing after a few years of disappointing. There are worse late round fliers than Morgan.

Larry Johnson is coming off his second straight disappointing season after an NFL-high 429-carry campaign in 2006. While still accruing a modest 1,234 career carries and at the age of 29, it remains to be seen how that record-setting season will take its toll long-term. Still, Johnson averaged 4.5 YPC last year, and his 17 goal-line carries tied for fourth-most in the league despite playing in just 12 games, and all four of the DNPs were due to disciplinary reasons, not injury. New head coach Todd Haley likes to throw near the goal line, but his offensive system, along with new QB Matt Cassel, should be upgrades, and with Tony Gonzalez jettisoned, Johnson could see plenty of scoring opportunities. Of course, he’ll need to get back in good graces with the organization, but with only Jamaal Charles (who has impressed when healthy) as an alternative, he should remain in Kansas City. Maybe most importantly, with matchups against the Bills, Browns and Bengals during Weeks 14-16, Johnson could be a huge difference maker in the fantasy playoffs.