NFL Barometer

By Dalton Del Don

RISERS

Chris Wells – A lingering ankle injury had Wells’ ADP plummeting, but after a strong performance during his preseason debut Friday (seven carries, 46 yards, two touchdowns), he’s shooting back up draft boards. Durability concerns aren’t going away, but it’s abundantly clear who the Cardinals’ best running back is, so expect the rookie to get more than his fair share of carries, even if Tim Hightower starts the season atop the depth chart. Wells is raw as a receiver, but Arizona has an underrated run-blocking unit, and especially with Todd Haley gone, coach Ken Whisenhunt may elect to run more frequently in 2009.  The NFC West looks bad defensively, at least on paper.

Knowshon Moreno – Like Wells, an injury has prevented Moreno from claiming the starting running back job, although he was able to return to the practice field Tuesday for the first time since August 14, when he sprained his MCL. Moreno was sporting a non-contact jersey, but it qualifies as good news regardless. He’s unlikely to play in the Broncos’ preseason finale Thursday, but there’s a real possibility he’s back in action come the season opener. While Denver may have a lot of quantity when it comes to the RB position, there isn’t much quality after the rookie, so expect Moreno to get the majority of touches when he’s physically able. There’s quite a bit of upside here.

Matt Leinart – While there has been some chatter about Leinart having to battle even for the No. 2 QB job, he ended any doubts with a superb performance during the team’s third preseason game last week. Leinart went 24-for-38 for 360 yards (9.5 YPA) and three touchdowns (he also threw one pick) in essentially one half of football, and although it came against the Packers’ second and third stringers, it was impressive nevertheless. While Leinart was facing backups on defense, his touchdown recipients were Early Doucet, Onrea Jones and Jason Wright, so it’s not like Leinart had the benefit of Arizona’s best offensive weapons on his side either. Kurt Warner has somehow managed to start 31 straight games, but it’s worth noting last year marked the first time he played in 16 games during a season since 2001. He’s now 38 years old with a bad hip. Leinart is the rare “handcuff” at the QB position for Warner owners, and he’s also a good late round flier for any owner to stash away in deep leagues.

Jeremy Shockey – It’s come to the point where Shockey has burned so many owners in the past, he’s something of an afterthought. Sure, the injury worries remain, but once ten tight ends are off the board, there isn’t a later option with more upside. Shockey is entering year two under New Orleans’ system, so it’s safe to assume he’ll be more comfortable, highlighted by his strong preseason. He’s shown a nice rapport with Drew Brees, and there’s plenty of potential playing for a passing attack that ranked No. 1 in the league last year. Shockey won’t be asked to block nearly as much as he did when in New York, and there have never been any doubts about his receiving ability. He’s not exactly the safest option, but Shockey could easily be a top-five tight end in 2009.

Byron Leftwich – Coach Raheem Morris has named Leftwich Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback. Despite an uneven performance in Thursday’s game against Miami, Leftwich has outplayed Luke McCown throughout training camp. He’ll begin the season as the starter and likely gives the Bucs the best chance at winning now, but Tampa seems unlikely to stick with one passer for all 16 games. Rookie Josh Freeman is waiting in the wings and could see some starts later in the season, especially if the Buccaneers struggle. Leftwich will go undrafted in most fantasy leagues, but Tampa Bay has an underrated offensive line, and he’ll have Kellen Winslow and Antonio Bryant as weapons, so crazier things have happened than him eventually emerging as a viable option.

Laurent Robinson – After getting traded from Atlanta to St. Louis, Robinson looks like the Rams’ new No. 2 WR, thanks to a strong preseason. Robinson has racked up 10 receptions for 137 yards over three games, and while that’s not overwhelming, it’s come in limited action and with Marc Bulger (finger) sidelined. The return of Donnie Avery (foot) should help take away defenses attention as well. Robinson isn’t going to win your league for you, but he’s a former third-round pick entering his third year in the league, so he’s a sneaky addition for those in PPR formats.

Jermichael Finley – Finley has received nothing but glowing reviews all offseason, and it appears the hype was well warranted after he caught two touchdowns during Green Bay’s third preseason game. He’ll still battle Donald Lee, who is a superior blocker, for playing time, but Finley is a physical freak who won’t be easy to keep off the field, especially since he’s become a favorite target of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a plethora of options in the passing game, but Finley could be a major force in the red zone, and he has the skills to really make an impact.

FALLERS

Wes Welker – Welker is a good football player, but he’s currently getting drafted far too high in fantasy leagues. It’s a different story in PPR formats, obviously, but in standard leagues, Welker’s current ADP (31.68) is perplexing. It means he’s the 12th wide receiver off the board, which is too high for someone not used near the goal line. Remember, even when Tom Brady threw an NFL-record 50 touchdowns in 2007, it only resulted in eight scores for Welker. He’s averaged just 10.5 yards-per-catch over his two seasons in New England. Moreover, no one seems to care he’s been sitting out practice (and two of the three preseason games) with a mysterious injury, and while it may turn out to be nothing, the lack of disclosure from New England can be maddening. In fact, his status for Week 1 is now reportedly in question. Draft Chad Johnson or even Eddie Royal instead.

Daunte Culpepper – Culpepper, who took eight stitches in one of his toes after an incident at his home Saturday night, is still experiencing soreness in his foot as of Wednesday. Coach Jim Schwartz has left open the possibility that Culpepper could play in Thursday’s preseason finale against the Bills, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely. Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, got 8.1 YPA during the team’s last preseason game and now appears to be the favorite to start Week 1. Stafford has shown more willingness than Culpepper to go downfield, an area that’s especially important to Detroit’s offense with Calvin Johnson around. Culpepper picked a bad time to get hurt.

Matt Cassel – Cassel will reportedly miss 2-for-4 weeks after suffering a sprained MCL, but this is really more of a “hold” than a downgrade. There are conflicting reports of whether he’ll be ready for Week 1, but with a matchup in Baltimore, he wasn’t an option in fantasy leagues then anyway. Think more long-term, where Cassel is a nice option as a QB2 with good upside playing in Todd Haley’s offense. With what should be a terrible team defensively, Kansas City will be forced to throw frequently, and while Cassel is the odds on favorite to take the most sacks in the NFL this season, he could also put up some nice fantasy stats.

Bernard Berrian – Berrian remains out with a hamstring injury, which is a concern for any wideout, let alone one who relies primarily on his deep speed. Berrian had a better season than his numbers indicated last year, as he drew a ton of pass interference calls. However, this is still a WR who has never reached 1,000 yards receiving in any of his five years in the league. Moreover, with a now healthy Sidney Rice to go along with exciting rookie Percy Harvin, there are more mouths to feed in Minnesota. The addition of Brett Favre seems like a good thing for the speedy Berrian, but Favre’s vertical YPA was below average last season, and he’s once again shown an unwillingness to go downfield this preseason, even during his successful outing against the Texans. Contrary to popular belief, Favre is not a very good deep ball thrower, so let someone else draft Berrian.

Willie Parker – After recovering from back spasms earlier in August, Parker is now missing action with a hamstring injury, highlighting just how brittle the back is. Rashard Mendenhall hasn’t exactly dominated during his recent opportunity, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be given a big chunk of the carries come the regular season. Playing for Pittsburgh theoretically has its advantages, but the offensive line is actually shaky, and Parker doesn’t catch any passes and is a poor option at the goal line. Since he’s also a big injury risk, why even bother?

Cedric Benson – Benson remains atop the Bengals’ depth chart, and with a healthy return of Carson Palmer combined with a motivated Chad Johnson, Cincinnati’s offense could be one of the better units in the league, especially if Andre Smith can somehow upgrade the line. However, Benson has gotten just 73 yards rushing on 23 carries this preseason, good for a 3.17 YPC mark. It’s just the preseason, but don’t let two big games against terrible run defenses at the end of last season overshadow the rest of Benson’s hugely disappointing career. Draft Bernard Scott 10 rounds later instead.

LenDale White – White has an ADP of 70.71, which means he’s actually typically getting drafted in the sixth round of fantasy leagues, ahead of other running backs like Felix Jones and Donald Brown, which is positively staggering. Yes, White had 15 touchdowns last year and has cut back his Patron intake, but there’s too much risk playing someone entirely reliant on getting a goal-line carry, as he averaged just 48.3 rushing yards per game last year. He doesn’t catch the ball, and remember, despite getting over 100 carries more in 2007, he scored fewer than half the amount of times (seven) he did last season, as touchdowns are extremely unreliable year-to-year. When the Titans trailed last season, White was essentially worthless and rarely on the field, so any prospective owners better hope the team’s defense doesn’t take even a small step backward this year. Chris Johnson is easily Tennessee’s best offensive player, so he’s going to be on the field more during his second year in the league.