The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

I liked Kendry Morales as a sleeper entering the year, but I certainly didn’t expect him to be this good. Over his last nine games, he has six homers with 16 RBI. The .296 batting average is hardly a surprise, but the .575 slugging percentage is. At age 26, the switch-hitting Morales should only get better. In fact, his OPS has increased during all five months this season. The Angels scored just the 10th most runs in the American League in 2008, and despite getting virtually nothing from Vladimir Guerrero and losing Mark Teixeira, the team has scored the most runs in major league baseball in 2009. The Angels signed Bobby Abreu for about $5 million this offseason. The Giants signed Edgar Renteria, who has posted a robust .633 OPS with a -2.3 UZR/150, to a two-year, $18.5 million deal. One of these things is not like the other.

Everyone knows Brian Bannister is a fan of sabermetrics, but he’s officially become the smartest man in sports, citing xFIP as his favorite method of analyzing pitchers. Even the majority of enlightened baseball writers still seem to think plain old FIP is the way to go, for some reason.

Really good article by Jeff Passan. It’s amazing how a pitch Tim Lincecum just learned how to throw basically last year has become the very best offering in all of baseball.

Asdrubal Cabrera has six multi-hit games over his past nine contests, moving his season OPS all the way to .794, which ranks in the top-10 among all MLB shortstops. A previous DL-stint has stunted his numbers some, but if you prorate his stats over 162 games, here’s what you’d get: 10 homers, 111 runs scored, 85 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Since Cabrera is also eligible at second base, he’s an underrated fantasy commodity.

Understanding you’re unlikely to get much at all in a trade, at least adding Mike MacDougal in offers can’t hurt. He’s converted 9-of-10 saves and remains entrenched as Washington’s closer, and he does sport a 2.81 ERA. Still, an 11:18 K:BB ratio over 25.2 innings is about as bad as it gets, so I might not even roster him altogether, really. The imminent damage to your ERA and WHIP is hardly worth a handful of saves. It’s coming.

Over the last two months, John Lannan has recorded a 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. That’s been accompanied by a staggering 2.67 K/9 mark. Unbelievable, really. This is another ship that must be jumped. Now.

When the bases are loaded this season, Albert Pujols is 7-for-9 with five home runs and 24 RBI. That’s a 3.144 OPS.

It really is ridiculous just how terrible Delmon Young is. He has three home runs on the year, with a 66:7 K:BB ratio over 222 at-bats. If he qualified, Young’s .624 OPS would rank second to last among all outfielders in baseball (Willy Taveras is worst with a .565 OPS). Young is also running less than ever before, successful on just two of his four SB attempts. His career, which has always been a massive disappointment, is going in the wrong direction.

Since Matt Kemp moved up to fifth in the order three games ago, he’s recorded 10 RBI. Now, I’m not sure he’d be able to knock in 540 runs if he’d have been hitting there all season, but it’s safe to say Joe Torre was a bit late in moving him up the lineup.

A 4.20 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for a 21-year-old rookie is impressive enough, but Brett Anderson has really turned it on recently, finishing July with a 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Since May ended, he’s posted an 8.69 K/9 mark, so his future looks bright.

Here’s updated rankings for my top-25 starting pitchers:

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Dan Haren
3. Javier Vazquez
4. Roy Halladay
5. Justin Verlander
6. Zack Greinke
7. Josh Beckett
8. Felix Hernandez
9. Jon Lester
10. Chris Carpenter
11. Josh Johnson
12. Cole Hamels
13. Cliff Lee
14. Johan Santana
15. Ricky Nolasco
16. Yovani Gallardo
17. Matt Cain
18. Chad Billingsley
19. Adam Wainwright
20. Wandy Rodriguez
21. Clayton Kershaw
22. CC Sabathia
23. Roy Oswalt
24. Rich Harden
25. Joe Blanton


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11 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    The Kemp situation is an abomination, as you well know I’ve been banging away on that ol’ gong all season. Right now, today, he is one of the best all-around players in the game. There’s nothing he can’t do at a star level, either at the plate or in the field (or on the basepaths for that matter). I’m absolutely convinced that the only thing not named Pujols or Utley sitting between this kid and legitimate NL MVP talk is his own stick-in-the-mud manager. God Torre sucks, but his team wins despite him. What can you do? It’s a miracle he finally relented and moved the guy up. Maybe one of his precious pets like Tino or Bernie gave him a call and broke his balls a bit on the kid’s behalf.

    Speaking of, has geographic proximity caused some of Torre’s managerial acumen to start rubbing off on Scioscia? How does Kendrick sit 4 of 5 games with the bat he’s been swinging?

    Delmon Young needs to just accept his fate as a future star for the Samsung Lions and move on. The sooner he develops a taste for kimchi, he better off his career will be.

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Scioscia has always made questionable calls with his lineup and given preferential treatment to veterans. He, like Torre, appears to be a good clubhouse guy, but like Torre, a pretty bad tactician.

  3. Brett Greenfield Avatar

    DDD,

    Great stuff. I wonder how many baseball players in addition to Brian Bannister think along those lines?

    Matt Kemp should never bat 8th. Even in an All-Star game.

    I like the respect for Javier Vazquez and Ricky Nolasco.

    Could Adam Wainwright be one of the five most valuable pitchers in real life, yet only top 20 in fantasy because of his lack of K’s?

    I think Kendry Morales is going to have a career much like that of Garrett Atkins.

    Both came up in their prime (age 26) and immediately began producing at an above-average level. Then, three years later, at age 29, a normalizing decline begins.

    There were no growing pains because they occurred in the minor leagues, but the bell curve comes much more quickly for an otherwise average player in a good lineup.

    Keep up the good work DDD.

  4. Brett Greenfield Avatar

    Re: MVP Talk.. Wouldn’t it be nice (Mark Reynolds) if the MVP consideration didn’t have to do to a contending team (Mark Reynolds).

    On the flip side of the contending team argument is… consider how much worse the Diamondbacks would be without him (Mark Reynolds).

    Just a thought…

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Brett – I would guess very, very few other baseball players think along those lines.

    I saw two recent updated SP rankings, and neither had Javy Vazquez in the top-15. Unreal.

    Nolasco’s xFIP is the sixth best in baseball! Even better than Verlander’s, Beckett, Felix, Carpenter, etc. He’s pitched well this season. The ERA is catching up.

    Considering his ADP, there’s little doubt Mark Reynolds is the fantasy MVP.

  6. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Maybe fantasy, sure, but in real life his horrific fielding will probably never allow him to sniff any non-Silver Slugger award. Fantastic season, still.

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  8. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Good stuff indeed…the Bannister article and Passan’s Fangraphs article were both good reads; though I’m still not sold on some of the Pitch Fx data. I do get baffled by how quickly some pitchers can learn a pitch very quickly and have it become awesome almost overnight (a la Lincecum), while some guys can toil for years in the minors trying to learn a change. I guess talent shows itself in a number of way. Brett Anderson has really impressed me. He was supposed to be the polish guy, and Cahill was supposed to be the stuff guy, but Anderson’s breaking stuff has been nasty, and he can still get low to mid 90’s on the fastball. Cahill’s sinking fastball has some nasty movement to it, almost too much it seems, as he doesn’t seem to be able to spot it very well. I had absolutely zero interest in drafting Mark Reynolds this year…my bad. Kemp is really good. I always have a really hard time shifting gears into football, even though I should be devouring information right now. I’m mainly just mad at Crabtree and his agent…and maybe even moreso at the Raiders for signing DHB to a crazy contract that is going to jack everything else up, even though he’s 100% sure to be a bust.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Keith – Pitch Fx is certainly not perfect. But it’s a pretty cool development. Scouts are pretty much worthless now, really.

    I don’t even want to go back and read what I wrote about Mark Reynolds before the year. Let’s just say I wasn’t a fan either.

    We are approaching mid-August. It’s officially football time!

    After this latest DHB incident, nothing the Raiders do can ever surprise me again.

  10. Stefan Avatar
    Stefan

    Matty Cain 5 spots behind Cole Hamels?

    What’s your take on the Crabtree situation? At what point does he dump his agent b/c he is sure to be taken lower than 10th in next year’s draft if he re-enters? His agent definitely seems to lack leverage in this situation.

  11. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Stefan – I actually don’t see a big difference b/w #12-19 in my ranking. I had a hard time with that group. I love Cain, but yes, I’d rather have Hamels over the rest of this season.

    I have no idea what to make of the Crabtree situation. I just hope it gets worked out ASAP. He’d be an idiot to sit out all season and re-enter the draft next year. Diva!

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