The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Before we get started, I’d like to report a change in scheduling. My weekly radio segment has moved times and will now be airing Mondays at 8:25 PST on XM channel 144.

Although I’m stating the obvious, Johan Santana’s fantasy value sees a definite boost with the move to the Mets. Not only will the league switch be huge, but he also improves offenses as well. It’s ironic that the best pitcher in baseball has only one plus pitch. Of course, that pitch is probably the best in the game. Also, his command – the most important aspect of pitching – is pretty good as well.

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In most drafts, there seems to be a clear top-3 (ARod, HRam, Reyes), but I’m going to argue there’s actually an obvious top-4, with David Wright sliding in next. A rarity, Wright contributes in all five roto categories, and it’s easy to forget he’s still just 25 years old. Last season’s 30/30 campaign looks even more impressive when you realize he finished April with zero homers and just three stolen bases. He hit .364/.465/.596 with a 42:53 K:BB ratio after the All-Star break. In fact, I don’t think he can go too high in drafts this year.

Carlos Pena is moving up my draft list as the season approaches. It’s never easy backing someone coming off such an obvious career-year, and he’s almost guaranteed to regress in 2008. However, I actually think he can become a bargain because of those facts. A once big-time prospect, Pena’s power and plate discipline are for real. When looking at his home runs from last season, a far greater percentage were “no doubters” than the league average, so the luck element can’t be blamed. Also, Pena’s isolated slugging (.344) was better than Alex Rodriguez (.331) and Prince Fielder (.329). He also had more walks per plate appearance (.168) than stars like Ryan Howard (.165), David Wright (.132) and Magglio Ordonez (.111). Don’t go taking some lower upside first baseman like Derrek Lee over him.

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One good thing to remember when analyzing a player’s walk rate is that K:BB ratios don’t always tell the whole story. Placido Polanco has a terrific batting eye, but his walk totals don’t reflect that because pitchers simply aren’t afraid of his bat. Conversely, it’s no coincidence that hitters like Sammy Sosa started walking at incredibly higher rates once he started compiling those 60-homer seasons. How pitchers treat hitters can have just as much of an affect on walk rates as the skill itself.

If you are looking for a breakout candidate, look no further than the Nationals’ outfield, where one exists at each spot. I like Lastings Milledge’s power/speed potential the most, but Austin Kearns isn’t too far behind. He saw his strikeouts per plate appearance (.157) drop dramatically last season, and RFK Stadium really suppressed his numbers, something that won’t be a problem this year. He may not ever develop into the star that he was once expected to, but still just 27 years old, there’s time for him to become a major fantasy asset. Oh, and Wily Mo Pena could easily clobber 40 bombs this season as well. And for those in NL-only leagues looking for a late flier, try Elijah Dukes, who would also likely excel if one of the aforementioned players were to get hurt.

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Willy Taveras looks like a better value pick than Juan Pierre this season. Pierre has the big contract, but he’s the Dodgers’ fourth best outfielder, so banking on playing time is a little risky for the price it will take to get him. Taveras, meanwhile, is locked into his role on the Rockies, which included a 55-steal pace last year. An injury left him with 33 SBs, and since his career-high is still a modest 34 SB campaign, his price tag on draft day shouldn’t be too outrageous. He has Coors Field at his aid, and the Rockies clearly have given him the green light.

Pedro Martinez is another player I see as a bit undervalued right now. His surgery is far enough in the rearview mirror that he should enter 2008 close to 100 percent, and while his fastball no longer breaks 90 MPH, his changeup and ability to locate remain top-notch. It also doesn’t hurt that other than maybe Greg Maddux, he’s the game’s smartest pitcher. His 32:7 K:BB ratio and zero homers allowed over 28 innings last season reveal there’s still plenty left in the tank, and with that offense, he should have no trouble in the wins department either. He’s 36 years old, which is hardly ancient when you realize Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens are 44 and 45, respectively. However, taking Martinez in your fantasy draft would be tempting the karma gods, as this is pretty disturbing.