BABIP

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

The following are abnormally high and abnormally low hit rates through 10 weeks of the season. Some of these players’ skill sets may have truly changed, but more likely, most will eventually regress to the mean. Act accordingly:

BABIP = Batting average on balls in play or “hit rate.” Most balls in play result in hits about 30 percent of the time. Home runs are not accounted for.

BJ Upton .447 BABIP – 534 career at-bats isn’t a big enough sample size to establish a trend with Upton’s hit rate, but it’s safe to say .447 is on the high side. It’s a mark that not only leads all of baseball but also is 33 points ahead of the next player. When you combine his lucky hit rate with a subpar .66 contact rate, Upton’s .320 batting average is more than a little fluky. Unless he starts taking a drastically different approach to the plate, he’ll be lucky to bat .260 from here on out.

Also see: Jorge Posada (.414 BABIP), Derrek Lee (.402), Matt Holliday (.396)

Elijah Dukes .200 BABIP – Of all batters with the qualified number of at-bats, Dukes is having the worst luck in the game this year. Just 20 percent of all balls put into play are falling in for hits, helping to explain a terrible .196 average despite an average contact rate. Maybe it’s karma punishing Dukes for being an asshole. More likely, however, is that Dukes’ hits start missing more gloves.

Also see: Jermaine Dye (.232), Corey Patterson (.247), Andruw Jones (.253), Pat Burrell (.254), Gary Sheffield (.262), Barry Bonds (.263)

Adam Wainwright .359 BABIP – The worst number in MLB. Wainwright hasn’t pitched great this year (1.68 K/BB ratio, 6.1 K/9 IP), but he also hasn’t been as bad as his 5.19 ERA indicates. A switch to the starting rotation figured to take a toll on his numbers, and he’s still working on developing that important third pitch (slider) that wasn’t needed when he was in the pen last year. But he dominated during spring, has a very good curveball and has Dave Duncan on his side. Wainwright could be a useful fantasy pitcher from here on out, especially once the abnormally high BABIP gets corrected.

Also see: Boof Bonser (.352), Randy Wolf (.336), Erik Bedard (.333), Daisuke Matsuzaka (.327), Scott Kazmir (.326)

Dan Haren .218 BABIP – There isn’t a better sell-high candidate in the game right now. While most balls in play result in hits about 30 percent of the time, it’s happening just 21.8 percent of the time for Haren this season, the lowest mark in major league baseball. When you also add in his league-leading strand rate (the percentage of batters that reach base but do not score) of .87 (a typical number is .59), you’re looking at the luckiest player in the league so far. His control is superb, he can strike guys out and he’s no doubt an excellent pitcher, but to call Haren’s ERA unsustainable would be an understatement. See if you can cash out now.

Also see: Rich Hill (.218), Jeremy Guthrie (.244), James Shields (.250), Oliver Perez (.251), Chris Young (.267), Matt Cain (.268)

Posted

June 11, 2007

BASEBALL

RotoScoop

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8 responses to “BABIP”

Robby

June 12, 2007

Chris Young is no fluke. The guy knows how to get hitters out, that’s it.

Seriously though, doesn’t BABIP imply that the only thing that matters in pitching is Ks and Walks, since everything else is a “ball in play?” I find this a little hard to believe. Aren’t there guys who are ground ball pitchers or guys who throw pitches to get guys out without striking them out?
Keith

June 12, 2007

Robby asking questions to Dalton now, is this what things have come to here? BABIP does oversimplify things some, but it also shows how dependent on luck (and defense) pitchers can be. Defense has a huge effect on BABIP, so I think that combined with the Oakland Coliseum’s huge foul area are two things that help Oakland pitchers (see Haren, Dan) to a large degree. When looking at pitchers, the easiest things to look at are K/9, K/BB (or BB/9), GB% and HR rate (HR/9). Ground balls don’t turn into HR’s, and don’t turn into extra base hits as often (I’ve always felt like slugging percentage against, or OPS against should be looked at somehow), while also increasing DB% (helping to increase strand rates as well). The whole “pitch to contact” thing is interesting, because I saw Mark Mulder do a lot of that back in his prime. The Oakland infield D was typically pretty good, and when he got runners in scoring position, you could see him change his approach and go for the K (Haren does it to some degree, but is more aggressive going for the K more often with his splitter). Halladay does it too, as does Webb (the most extreme groundballer, with another good infield behind him). I just think you have to be a very good pitcher to effectively pitch to contact, and there’s likely a pretty thin margin for error.

I’m trying to sell Rich Hill, but I think the curve might help him follow Zito in the regularly below BABIP, plus with his good K/rate, his H/9 should stay low (though I worry about the HR’s).

Oh, and if you guys could help get Lincecum back on track, that would be great. I was at the game on Friday and thuroughly enjoyed watching Lowry head out to RF…I just wish the game could have lasted a couple more innings to get him and Feliz some more action!
RotoScoop

June 12, 2007

Keith – I was at that game Friday night as well. Lincecum was killin me. He retired the first 7 hitters no problem, then completely fell apart. He does need to work on his command some.

Feliz looked solid behind the plate! I wish they would have held runners on, b/c he has a strong arm, and I wanted to see if he could gun em down. Hennessey later complained that he gave up that two-run hit to Stewart b/c he was afraid to throw his slider in the dirt, but I don’t buy it. Feliz looked surprisingly capable.

I was begging for a flyball to right field. That said, did you happen to watch Winn take grounders at third to warm up? I underestimated his lack of arm. He could barely get it across the diamond. Anyway, ya, that was a crazy game to be at.
RotoScoop

June 12, 2007

Robby – Keith said a lot of what I wanted to touch on, but here goes: there’s three main things involved in a pitchers success – 1)Ks 2)Walks 3)ability to limit HRs. Remember, BABIP does NOT account for HR. (it’s balls in play that don’t leave the yard). They say about 1 out of every 10 flyballs leave the yard, so keeping the ball on the ground, and therefore limiting HRs, is a skill and just as important as K/B rates. Defense matters quite a bit with BABIP, which is part of my reasoning that ERA isn’t a great indication of how a pitcher is throwing.

I’ve mentioned this before, but after watching Tom Glavine live get batter after batter off balance and taking feeble swings, this theory doesn’t come without some question, even from myself. However, it’s pretty well proven. Here’s a good example – During the HR derby next month, watch every ball put into play that isn’t a homer. I’d venture somewhere around only 30 percent would you indentify as sure-fire base hits.
RotoScoop

June 12, 2007

Chris Young is legit, though, don’t get me wrong. Flyball pitchers (like Young) do seem to have on average a lower BABIP. It makes sense, as balls in the air are more likely to find a glove than grounders as a rule. Plus, he has Petco working for him. That said, he seems to wear down easier than other pitchers and has never even thrown 180 innings in a season.
Donald Trump

June 13, 2007

What do you think about Pat Burell? Is he going to turn it around, or is he hiding an injury?
RotoScoop

June 13, 2007

You get the feeling Burrell is always battling some sort of minor injury. However, I think Charlie Manuel is the bigger obstacle. Actually, it does look like he’s back playing regularly. I think he’ll be fine. As mentioned above, he’s getting terrible luck on balls put into play. The plate discipline (45/48 K/BB ratio) is by far the best in his career, so not only should his average improve, he should be batting above his career norms. The power not being there is an issue, but Id’ expect it to come, and he does have playing in Citizen’s Bank Park going for him. I think Burrell turns it around.
Anonymous

June 13, 2007

elijah dukes is a great man and is going straight to heaven!!!!

BABIP

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8 responses to “BABIP”

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