By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
1. Cleveland Indians 88-74
Overview: Over the last two seasons, the Indians are 40-62 in one-run games. Part of this was bullpen troubles, as they had the worst save conversion rate in the game last season. In fact, Cleveland relievers converted just 24-of-47 saves. The 2006 Indians bullpen was among the worst 3 percent of all teams since 1959, according to Baseball Prospectus. Another problem was defense, as they allowed the most unearned runs (84) in baseball last year as well. However, plain old bad luck can also be to blame, as the Tribe scored the second most runs in the AL and gave up the sixth fewest runs. Based on those numbers, the Indians should have had 11 more wins last year when adjusting the standings. Cleveland has outscored its opponents by 236 runs over the last two seasons, the second highest in the majors. And yet, they failed to reach the postseason in either campaign; things even out this time around.
Hitting: Grady Sizemore had 92 extra base hits while playing half his games at Jacobs Field (slight pitcher’s park) at age 23 last season. Folks, that’s unreal. Once he starts turning those doubles and triples into long balls, a legitimate run at a 40/40 season may follow. Half project, half donkey, Travis Hafner is my favorite to win the MVP award this year. Fluke injuries have derailed his previous two seasons, but a full-time DH role increases the likelihood of a 600 at-bat year. He was the American League’s best hitter last year, posting a 1.097 OPS with 42 homers in just 454 at-bats. He also walked 100 times. In fantasy, I see him worthy of a top-10 pick. The rest of the lineup does have some holes, but Josh Barfield, Andy Marte and Ryan Garko give the team plenty of young bats with upside.
Pitching: C.C. Sabathia is a legitimate Cy Young contender, although his inability to stay healthy is concerning; he’s only thrown 200 innings once during his career. Still, he’s never suffered a major injury and is showing signs of a true breakthrough coming this year, as he finished the second half of last season with a 2.97 ERA and a 91/21 K/BB ratio over 103 innings. Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, Paul Byrd and Jeremy Sowers can best be described as innings eaters, but with that lineup, ERAs in the 4.20 range should be sufficient. Fausto Carmona and Adam Miller are decent alternatives as well. Defense could remain a problem with the Tribe, but the bullpen should be leaps and bounds better than last year, with the addition of Joe Borowski and the continued maturation of Fernando Cabrera and Rafael Betancourt.
2. Chicago White Sox 87-75
Overview: It’s tough betting against Ozzie Guillen, who is the most entertaining manager of all-time.
Hitting: With Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad slated to hit atop the White Sox’s order, Jim Thome is going to be batting with the bases empty an awful lot. With Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede all coming off career-seasons, Chicago doesn’t figure to put quite as many runs on the board this year. I’m especially concerned with Dye, who figures to go too early in most fantasy drafts. He hasn’t played in 150 games since 2000 and hit an unsustainable .351 with RISP last season. He also hit better than .300 for just the second time in his career, and it’s not like his contact rate improved. Playing in Cellular Field certainly helps, but banking on a guy repeating career-bests in all three triple crown categories at age 33 is not recommended. Still, Tadahito Iguchi and AJ Pierzynski are decent bats at the bottom of the order, and the lineup is solid overall.
Pitching: The team needs Jose Contreras to act as an ace, because there’s not much to like after him in the rotation. Javier Vazquez continuously shows great peripherals, but he’s yet to figure out how to translate that into the ERA category. His strikeout rate and WHIP are consistently strong, but he’s too erratic and serves up too many long balls to finish with an ERA less than 4.0. Mark Buehrle is pitching for a new contract, but it looks like his days as being anything more than a No. 3 or No. 4 starter are finished. Jon Garland and John Danks form an average at best back half of the rotation. The bullpen isn’t anything special either, and Bobby Jenks’ lack of velocity this spring is a major concern heading into the season.
3. Detroit Tigers 86-76
Overview: I consistently underrated this team last season, and with full awareness that this is a solid club, Detroit won’t be quite as lucky this time around. They were remarkably healthy last season and went 19-31 over their final 50 games. The AL Central is also extremely competitive.
Hitting: The Gary Sheffield addition was huge, as the slugger will no doubt be motivated to prove he’s not done. Placido Polanco may be the toughest batter to strikeout in the game, but he does little else than single. Pudge Rodriguez is a player in decline, evidenced by his eroding plate discipline; he’s walked a total of 37 times over his last 1,051 at-bats. Plus, last year’s .437 slugging percentage was his lowest mark since the 1993 season. The chances are slim that you’ll get back-to-back healthy seasons from Carlos Guillen and even slimmer that Brandon Inge hits 27 homers again.
Pitching: Jeremy Bonderman has improved each year he’s pitched in the majors. While a true breakthrough has yet to occur, the peripherals suggest its immanency. Justin Verlander is going to have a nice career, but a repeat of last year’s 17 wins and 3.63 ERA are unlikely this season. He needs to utilize that terrific fastball better and miss some bats, as 124 strikeouts won’t get it done. I’ve been skeptical of Kenny Rogers’ ability to keep getting hitters out, but his injury is a major blow to the team’s hopes this year. The 3.94 batters Todd Jones struck out per nine innings last year was historically bad for someone who reached 30 saves. History isn’t kind in these situations the following year. Joel Zumaya is the No. 1 setup man to target in fantasy drafts, and you can count on him closing by June 1. In fact, I’d actually rather own Zumaya than Jones at this point.
4. Minnesota Twins 80-82
Overview: The Twins sure looked a whole lot better entering last year, before losing Francisco Liriano to injury and Brad Radke to retirement. There isn’t a worse No. 2-5 starting rotation in the league.
Hitting: Manager Ron Gardenhire is not very good at lineup arrangements and extremely inflexible once a decision is made. Still, it’s a lineup that won’t struggle to score runs like in year’s past. Mauer, Cuddyer and Morneau form a productive heart of the order and Jason Kubel should start hitting this year as well.
Pitching: After Johan Santana, things get ugly. Not sure why Minnesota’s brass is so reluctant to insert Matt Garza into the rotation, but you have to figure he’ll be up sooner rather than later. In Ramon Ortiz, Carlos Silva, Boof Bonser and Sidney Ponson, there’s a good chance none finish with an ERA better than 4.50. The bullpen remains a strength, but they figure to get overworked with such a decrepit starting five.
5. Kansas City Royals 57-105
Overview: Bringing in up and coming Dayton Moore looked like the franchise was finally moving in the right direction, but every decision the young GM has made since then has suggested otherwise.
Hitting: David DeJesus, Mark Grudzielanek and Mike Sweeney give the Royals a triumvirate of the most injury-prone players in the game. Mark Teahen, Ryan Shealy and Alex Gordon, however, are an exciting young trio. Especially Gordon, who represents the first reason a Kansas City fan has had to get excited in years. Angel Berroa was one of the bigger ROY flameouts in memory.
Pitching: You don’t need me to tell you the Gil Meche signing was egregious, but at least it looks like Zack Greinke has turned his career around. He’s the early favorite for Comeback Player of the Year and could even have some fantasy value at some point. Yep, Odalis Perez is still in the league. Octavio Dotel is a solid ninth-inning option (one of the biggest baseball fallacies is people thinking last-place teams don’t generate enough save opportunities), but don’t forget about past prospect David Riske if Dotel should suffer another injury.
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