By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
1. Francisco Rodriguez – You really can’t go wrong with either Nathan or K-Rod as the first closer off the board, but I’m never one to chase saves early on in drafts. Rodriguez battles Ben Sheets for the honor of best curveball in the game.
2. Joe Nathan – Think Brian Sabean wants a mulligan on that Liriano/Nathan/Bonser for Pierzynksi trade? Last year’s 0.79 WHIP was flat-out ridiculous.
3. Mariano Rivera – Still going strong. While he won’t help out in Ks like other elite closers, remember, Rivera is pitching for a contract this season.
4. Billy Wagner – Expect his WHIP to return to the sub-1.00 level this year.
5. B.J. Ryan – There isn’t a bigger mismatch in baseball than a left-handed hitter with B.J. Ryan on the mound. They hit .120 against him last year.
6. Huston Street – After an unbelievable rookie campaign, Street predictably fell back to earth last year. Still, his K:BB ratio actually improved (67:13), and he’s a fine target in the middle rounds.
7. J.J. Putz – Where did that come from? Putz always had the stuff, but his 100 MPH fastball was too straight, resulting in too many long balls. He put it all together last year, and a run as a dominant, top tier closer looks to be in the cards.
8. Chad Cordero – The actual “saves” category is volatile, so it’s best not to read into that very much. His nickname is The Chief, and he wears a flat bill, what’s not to like?
9. Chris Ray – Posting a 1.29 ERA over the final two months of the season last year, Ray is officially an upper-tier closer.
10. Trevor Hoffman – Pitching in Petco and the NL West has masked a drop in velocity, but that changeup is as good as ever. Since he’s 39 years old, there is some risk involved.
11. Tom Gordon – It’s hard to figure out how his ERA and WHIP rose considerably last year after switching from pitching in the AL East to the NL East. Chalk it up to the shoulder ailment he suffered, and expect an ERA drop back into the 2.80 range, just as long as the veteran’s body cooperates.
12. Bobby Jenks – There’s cause for concern. Jenks had a 2.83 ERA and 1.11 WHIP before the All-Star break last year but a 5.72 ERA and 1.80 WHIP after it. Now, he’s suffering from shoulder tightness this spring. Bid cautiously.
13. Francisco Cordero – While it’s possible Derrick Turnbow reemerges as a late-inning threat, Cordero excelled once moving to the Senior Circuit. After losing the closer’s job in Texas, Cordero posted a 1.69 ERA and 30 Ks in just 26 2/3 innings in a Brewers’ uniform. He’s never been a big help in WHIP, however.
14. Brad Lidge – Is the Albert Pujols NLCS homer really going to ruin his career? A remarkable 104 Ks over 75 innings last season suggests his electric stuff is still there, but 10 HRs allowed and 36 walks indicate location remains a big problem. Lidge brings huge upside and significant risk. He could easily lose his job.
15. Brian Fuentes – However Coors Field plays this year, Fuentes has proven the ability to succeed there.
16. Takashi Saito – He was the best reliever in the National League last season, and it wasn’t even really that close. Pacing the league in strikeouts out of the pen, Saito deserved more ROY consideration. While imports sometimes fail the second time around the league, Saito will probably only regress so much. While it’s nice Eric Gagne isn’t lurking over his shoulder, Jonathan Broxton looms.
17. Bob Wickman – The downside is a lack of Ks and two good alternatives (Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano) lurk in the Braves’ pen. The upside is he’s currently locked in the role, at least for this year, and he posted a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings after joining Atlanta last year. The NL will prolong both his career and fantasy relevance.
18. Octavio Dotel – Forget about the last two years. Dotel is only now finally back to full strength, has a good hold on Kansas City’s closer’s role and has averaged 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings throughout his career. Even the worst team in baseball produces 35-45 save opportunities.
19. Jose Valverde – He’s dominant. He’s terrible. The only thing consistent about Valverde is his inconsistency. Still, it’s hard not to get excited about his peripherals (11.7 Ks per nine innings in his career). During the second half of last season, he posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, continuing his career-long trend of pitching better after the All-Star break. He has quite a bit of upside for where he’s typically being drafted, making him a fine gamble.
20. Jason Isringhausen – If health permits, he could be a bargain.
21. Eric Gagne – It remains to be seen just how effective Gagne can be with such a drastic decrease in velocity. His devastating changeup will help keep him successful, but since he remains an injury risk and now pitches at Ameriquest Field in the AL, his days as a dominant closer are probably over.
22. Kerry Wood – Wood can likely be drafted later than this ranking suggests, especially considering the fact Ryan Dempster is currently atop the Cubs’ bullpen depth chart. The thing is, Dempster isn’t anything special, and Kerry Wood has a better chance at staying healthy with a move to the pen. If he’s on his game, a switch to the closer’s role is inevitable. I’m a sucker for upside.
23. Todd Jones – The anti-Kerry Wood. Boring yet steady, Jones is 39 years old and has a better pitcher in Joel Zumaya setting him up. If Jones lasts the entire year in the closer’s role, it would be an upset.
24. Salomon Torres – Torres posted a tidy 3.28 ERA last year, but his 1.46 WHIP suggests he was lucky. Coming off a season in which he made the second most appearances in MLB history (he’s eclipsed 90 innings in each of the past three years), fatigue is a concern as well. Matt Capps might already be the better pitcher.
25. Armando Benitez – His arthritic knees are a legitimate concern. So is his inconsistency when on the mound. Unless he falls extremely late, it’s best to let someone else bid here, while you take Brian Wilson a few rounds later. I’d put the odds that Wilson finishes with more saves than Benitez this season at 50-50.
26. Joe Borowski – Yawn. It’s safe to say that Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera and Fausto Carmona will all finish the year as better pitchers than Borowski.
27. Joel Pineiro
28. Seth McClung
29. David Weathers
30. Brian Wilson
31. Joel Zumaya
32. Kevin Gregg
33. Ryan Dempster
34. Taylor Tankersley
35. Akinori Otsuka
36. Jonathan Broxton
37. Scot Shields
38. Bob Howry
39. Scott Linebrink
40. Rafael Soriano
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