By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Ironically, the Colts find themselves in the Super Bowl the one postseason everyone had written them off. It’s easy to forget, but Indy and Chicago were the last teams to lose during the regular season, peaking early but apparently again late. Everyone wants to see a good game Sunday, and Indy really hasn’t played all that well this postseason except for the second half against New England. On the surface, however, this game really does look like a mismatch.
The AFC dominated inter-conference games this year; since Week 7, the AFC went 34-11 against the inferior NFC, beating its opponents by an average of 7.6 points per game. Indianapolis has faced seven top six pass defenses this season and went 6-1 against them, scoring more than 25 points per game. The Bears have hardly played like a top defense since losing Tommie Harris, their best defensive player.
Indy’s emerging defense is yet another poor matchup for Chicago, and specifically, Rex Grossman. The Colts, as do the Bears, play the Cover 2, which concentrates on limiting big plays. Unfortunately for Chicago, Grossman relies heavily on the big play, as almost 12 percent of his completions went for more than 25 yards this season. The Colts allowed a “big play” on just six percent of completions, by far the lowest rate in the league. Manning mastered the dink and dunk this year, but asking Grossman to do so efficiently for 60 minutes is a tall order. How is he going to react if Chicago gets down early?
All of that said, the Bears aren’t doormats and do have some chalk on their side as well. Chicago forced 44 turnovers during the regular season, and this may be the single biggest factor Sunday. Considering Peyton Manning actually gets sacked less when blitzed than when not, Chicago is going to struggle creating turnovers with pressure. The Bears recovered an NFL-high 20 fumbles this year; the most unpredictable, equalizing play in football. Also, Chicago may hold the greatest advantage in the game: kick returns. Led by Devin Hester, the Bears have the best special teams unit in the league, while Indy sports one of the very worst.
The Bears catch a break the game isn’t going to be played on turf, but Chicago also won’t be aided by wind chill, a sloppy field, or any other extreme homefield advantage like when playing at Soldier Field. If Manning is going to make his mark on a legacy this Sunday, Marvin Harrison probably needs to break out of his postseason funk. Over the last 13 playoff games Harrison has played, the wideout has recorded zero touchdowns in 12 of them and tallied 299 yards total during his last seven postseason games.
While I can’t see Indy losing this game, and I’d be mildly shocked if it wasn’t a blowout, one major caveat exists here: the public is going to be predominantly siding with Indianapolis as well – after all, they have the more prolific skill position players – and the public is usually wrong. Last year, I thought the same exact thing about Pittsburgh, so I backed Seattle. This year, I’m not making the same mistake. The last two Super Bowls held in Miami have been blowouts; count on it happening again.
COLTS 31-17
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