By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Editor’s Note: The following article was written for Yahoo’s baseball draft kit, which RotoWire produces.
Andy Pettitte – Pettitte’s run support should increase significantly now back in a Yankees’ uniform, but the rest of his numbers should suffer as a result of the league switch. During the final six seasons in his last stint pitching in New York, Pettitte kept his ERA under 3.99 just once, and that was during an injury-shortened campaign. His WHIP was never better than 1.31 during that same time span. The AL East remains filled with powerful lineups, so expect Pettitte’s numbers to regress from where they were as an Astro over the last three years.
Mike Gonzalez – While a move from Pittsburgh to Atlanta means an improved team, it also means Gonzalez enters the season as a setup man and no longer a closer. He may be the long-term answer to close in Atlanta, but Bob Wickman figures to remain effective enough for one more season. Gonzalez was an exceptional 24-for-24 in save chances last year, but it could take some adjusting to when being asked to enter with men on base this season, especially considering his high walk rate. He’s likely to remain effective, but losing the closer’s role decreases his fantasy value significantly.
Gary Sheffield – Yankee Stadium is rough on right-handed hitters, but leaving that potent lineup can only hurt Sheffield’s counting stats. During his career, Sheffield has posted a .932 OPS at Yankee Stadium and just a .640 OPS at Comerica Park. If the Tigers go through with their plan of playing him primarily at DH, Sheffield has a better chance of staying healthy and could still be a productive bat. Still, leaving the Yankees’ lineup decreases his chances at another 125 RBI season.
Gary Matthews – Matthews was paid well, but he traded a hitter’s paradise for a park in Anaheim that saps power from both sides of the plate. He also moves to a lineup that figures to score fewer runs than when he was playing for Texas. Coming off a career-year at age 32, Matthews already had the deck stacked against him; the change in scenery only adds to his likelihood of being a bust in 2007.
Adam LaRoche – There are some advantages to LaRoche’s move from Atlanta to Pittsburgh, as he’s likely to bat cleanup now. Last year, he often found himself batting toward the bottom of the lineup. However, PNC Park suppresses home runs almost more than any other park in baseball, so another run at 30 bombs appears unlikely. LaRoche also may see more time against left-handers this season, and while that will help his counting stats, his average will likely take a hit as a result; he’s batted just .228 in 180 career at-bats versus southpaws. Hitting directly behind Jason Bay is nice, but the rest of Pittsburgh’s lineup is a big drop off from Atlanta’s. LaRoche’s 2006 season is likely to go down as a career-year.
Luis Gonzalez – When Gonzalez became a Dodger, he left behind one of the game’s best hitter’s parks for one of the top pitcher’s parks in Dodger Stadium. During his career, he’s posted a .904 OPS at Chase Field but just a .770 OPS in 403 career at-bats at Dodger Stadium. Gonzalez isn’t likely to even reach 20 homers in 2007.
Marcus Giles – Petco Park is the toughest park to hit in, and it’s not even close. Turner Field has mostly played as a neutral park, but going to San Diego now will really suppress Giles’ numbers and makes him a far less enticing fantasy property.
Doug Davis – Davis could approach 15 wins with better run support in Arizona, but he now finds himself pitching in one of baseball’s best environments for hitters; Chase Field allowed the most home runs in the National League last year. Davis found most of his success while pitching at Miller Park throughout his career, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home and in a Brewers’ uniform. When pitching everywhere else, Davis sees his ERA increase all the way to 4.82. Expect a similar number this season.
Jay Payton – Payton upgraded ballparks when he moved from Oakland to Baltimore, but he also gave up plenty of at-bats in the process. Once the Orioles added Aubrey Huff, Payton essentially became a fourth outfielder. Last season, Payton received 557 at-bats, the second highest total of his career. This year, he’ll be lucky if he gets half of that amount.
Woody Williams – In choosing his hometown of Houston, Williams left baseball’s best pitching park in San Diego to join the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park. Over the last two seasons, Williams succeeded almost exclusively at home, compiling a 3.39 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP pitching at Petco Park and a 5.46 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP on the road. He previously had his uses if you were able to spot start him, but in 2007, Williams figures to cease all fantasy value except those in NL-only leagues.
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