1. Atlanta Braves 91-71
Overview: Many claim the Mets to be this year’s division favorite. Don’t buy it. The Braves will claim their 15th straight division title. Although, it will be interesting to see how truly great of an effect Leo Mazzone’s departure will have.
Hitting: Andruw Jones won’t be as productive as a year ago, but the Braves possess many weapons on offense. Renteria should enjoy his return to the NL, and Francoeur’s impressive debut was legit. Langerhans figures to start in the beginning, but Matt Diaz and Kelly Johnson make the outfield deep and should prove to be a strength.
Pitching: Always their strongest point, the Braves will continue to rely heavily on their rotation. Smoltz should have another dominant year left in him, and Hudson will bounce back with a better year than last. Jorge Sosa’s 1.39 WHIP suggests a rise in ERA, but he should remain an asset. Look for a trade to eventually open a spot for Kyle Davies, who will become a fixture on the staff for years to come. The bullpen will be a problem area. Reitsma is not the long-term answer at closer. The Braves better hope Joey Devine is ready, and his spring numbers say that he is.
2. Philadelphia Phillies 89-73 *** Wildcard winner
Overview: The Phillies should have no trouble putting runs on the board; their pitching, however, will ultimately decide their fate. What, if any, effect will the moving back of the leftfield fences have?
Hitting: Too bad they traded Polanco for the incarcerated Urbina, or the Phillies would be the favorites to lead the league in runs scored. Instead, they’ll employ a weak bottom third of the order. Still, the rest will be potent. Howard and Utley could be scary good.
Pitching: The staff will appreciate newcomer Rowand’s terrific center field defense. Myers, Lieber and Madson form a solid top three. Gavin Floyd looks ready to contribute and is capable of immediate success. His and Cole Hamels development will play a big part in the franchise’s future. Tom Gordon will successfully step right into the departed Wagner’s closer role.
3. New York Mets 87-75
Overview: Not that far off a year ago, the Mets added Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner this off-season. Willie Randolph can’t possibly continue messing up his lineup arrangements this year, can he? Never has a franchise’s fortunes been so dependant on one toe.
Hitting: Beltran will start earning his huge contract this year, and Wright will begin a long run at MVP-type seasons. The health of Floyd, Reyes and Delgado will be paramount. The Nady/Diaz platoon should be rather productive.
Pitching: After Pedro, the rest of the rotation will ultimately be the Mets downfall. If they really do end up sending Heilman to the pen, then they are in even more trouble. Even if the Glavine after last year’s All-Star break shows up (he just turned 40, by the way), the Mets will find it difficult to reach expectations with Steve Trachsel, Victor Zambrano and Brian Bannister filling out their rotation. Look for the club to end up disappointing yet again.
4. Washington Nationals 74-88
Overview: Last year the Nationals surprised and remained in the playoff hunt almost until the very end; this year they might be eliminated by the All-Star break. Good thing they share divisions with the Marlins.
Hitting: Losing Guillen would’ve been crushing, and his recovery from the wrist injury will be vital. Nick Johnson has a big year in him somewhere, but he can’t stay healthy. Same goes for Vidro. The Soriano situation will have a soap opera vibe throughout.
Pitching: John Patterson is here to stay. How many more 150-pitch outings can Livan Hernandez take? Lawrence and Ayala both succumbing to injury doesn’t help an already Nicole Richie-like-thin pitching staff. Chad Cordero will continue to shine, but save opportunities will be minimal.
5. Florida Marlins 60-102
Overview: The Marlins might just be undergoing the most extreme youth movement ever. Cabrera and Willis are the true cornerstones of the franchise, but with their supporting cast, a 100-loss year may very well be in store.
Hitting: Cabrera’s patience will be greatly tested this year; why would anyone ever throw him a fastball? Hermida is the early favorite for ROY honors, and Willingham will more than hold his own; however, after that, it gets worrisome. While Hanley Ramirez and Mike Jacobs have bright futures, for the short-term, the Marlins will really struggle to score runs. It should be the least potent offense in the majors.
Pitching: If Willis doesn’t work out his mechanics, and his WBC performance continues into the season, the Marlins are in even more trouble than anticipated. Jason Vargas, Scott Olsen and Travis Bowyer are all promising prospects, but again, not much should be expected for the time being.
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