RotoScoop.com

By Dalton Del Don

I’ll admit I fully joined the Peyton Hillis as a bust in 2011 chorus earlier this summer, but I’ve since changed my mind. What looked like a throw-in as part of the Brady Quinn trade at the time, Hillis took over Cleveland’s backfield after injuries struck last season, and despite not starting until Week 3, racked up 1,654 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns. He was fantastic in all aspects besides ball security (his eight fumbles were the most in the NFL), but he wore down badly over the year’s second half as his YPC fell from 4.8 to 3.9, likely due to his bruising, physical style. Since his fade came on a modest 270 rushing attempts, it made sense Cleveland talked all offseason about planning on more of a committee attack this year. But Montario Hardesty continues to battle health problems, finally making his preseason debut Thursday (five carries for 15 yards), and Brandon Jackson is out indefinitely with turf toe. Incorporating all aspects of football (running, receiving, blocking, penalties), Pro Football Focus graded Hillis as the second best running back in the NFL last season (Jamaal Charles was No. 1), and remember, even if he sees fewer snaps on a weekly basis, he totaled more than 1,650 yards with a modest 270 rushing attempts during just 13 starts last season, so he wasn’t exactly a huge volume guy, and he’s going to remain a huge part of the passing game in new coach Pat Shurmur’s offense and is a beast at the goal line. Similarly to Brandon Lloyd, Hillis, who was the No. 2 overall fantasy back last season, is getting overly discounted so far at 2011 draft tables.

Here are the results from the recent Yahoo Friends & Family draft. I really like my team but admittedly it’s pretty boom-or-bust.

While I can’t condone assault, especially toward the handicapped, this guy is the man. Seriously, who hasn’t seen someone chasing a neighbor down the street with a chainsaw?

I’m not sure I’ve ever owned Wes Welker in a fantasy league, but I’d like to change that this year. Obviously a PPR monster, Welker averaged 115.3 catches over his first three years after joining New England before racking up 86 receptions while missing a game last season while coming off serious knee surgery. His 2009 campaign needs to be reiterated, as he recorded 123 catches for 1,348 receiving yards over essentially just 13 games (he left the Week 17 contest early in the first quarter)! To put that into perspective, those 123 receptions tied Welker for the second-most in NFL history, and he accomplished that while missing three games. Of course, even during that historic season, he scored only four touchdowns, which has been his biggest fantasy hindrance. He’s never scored more than eight touchdowns in his career, but it’s worth noting only Larry Fitzgerald saw more targets inside the 10-yard line last season, as Welker received 13 looks from in close. There are plenty options for Tom Brady to look for in New England this season, but each tight end will likely alternate big weeks, Randy Moss is gone, and Chad Ochocinco has been slow to pick up the offense, so another year removed from the knee injury, don’t be surprised if Welker has a big 2011. He’s the clear favorite to lead the league in catches.

Man tries to stop car with his feet via Flintstones style. Fails miserably.

This restaurant review is controversial, intriguing and downright bizarre.

Reggie Bush has looked sharp since coming over to Miami and has secured the starting role. He won’t be treated like a true workhorse, but 12-15 carries and 3-6 catches per game aren’t out of the question. Bush has never reached even 600 rushing yards in a season during his career, and it’s hard to see him being more productive on an inferior Dolphins team compared to the Saints, at least on a per play basis. Of course, the expected increase in volume is what has his fantasy needle moving up, and there’s some thought playing on grass could help him stay healthy. Rookie Daniel Thomas has been thoroughly unimpressive so far in the preseason, showing little physicality, which has led to the signing of Larry Johnson, which is about as desperate as it gets. Clearly, Bush enters the year as the Dolphins’ lead back, so he should be treated as a borderline top-25 RB in PPR formats.

The best head first slide in the history of baseball.

Not to be outdone, here’s a triple play after a ball bounces off a center fielder’s head.

I’m in no way a Matt Ryan hater. In fact, according to Advanced NFL Stats, which is a great site, he led the NFL in WPA (win probability added) last season, so he may have even been underrated since he performed so well in clutch situations, but I’m not on board with his hype entering 2011. Ryan is consistently being drafted ahead of Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning. I’ve written about my Stafford love plenty before, but I admit he’s obviously a much bigger risk, but why is Ryan going before Eli? By all accounts, Julio Jones looks like the real deal, but all this talk about Atlanta throwing so much more this season seems misguided considering Ryan attempted the sixth-most pass attempts in the NFL last year. The team is facing without a doubt a harder schedule in 2011, and Ryan’s 6.5 YPA mark last year was highly unimpressive, especially considering he played 10 of his 16 games in a dome. Eli threw for more than 4,000 yards for the second straight year (Ryan set a career-high with 3,705 yards last season) and 31 touchdowns while playing outdoors. Joe Flacco, who is going much later in fantasy drafts and got 7.4 YPA while tossing 25 touchdowns and also upgraded his WR corps during the offseason, looks like the superior real life QB and has about an equal shot of matching Ryan’s 2011 fantasy value.

Best roommate ever? Best roommate ever.

This optical illusion is pretty crazy.

Ben Tate busted loose during his preseason debut Saturday against the Saints, as he ran for 95 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries. After being selected in the second round last year, Tate broke his ankle in his first preseason game and missed the year with the injury. More problematic, he missed a bunch of practices this season with a lingering hamstring injury, so it was not only nice to see him on the field but also performing at a high level as well. Steve Slaton continues to miss time with a hamstring injury of his own and is a candidate to be traded, but Tate still needs to beat out Derrick Ward to become Houston’s RB2. Ward is missing time with a concussion and is 31 years old, so the more talented Tate is the favorite, assuming he can stay healthy. It’s a role that could pay huge dividends should Arian Foster get hurt, as Houston has produced some monstrous numbers from its lead back over the past few years. The Texans might deploy the best run-blocking unit in all of football and have a favorable looking schedule in 2011, and it also helps coach Gary Kubiak likes to feature a single runner. No other player available so late has the chance to be a bigger difference maker in fantasy leagues than Tate.

If you truly caught a Chupacabra, why release it?

I’m a fan of “Explosions In The Sky,” but I could see why this billboard has caused a bit of controversy.

Willis McGahee totaled 39 yards and scored two touchdowns on seven touches during the Broncos’ 24-10 win over the Bills on Saturday. There’s obvious downside here, as McGahee is clearly behind Knowshon Moreno on the RB pecking order, has averaged a pedestrian 4.0 YPC throughout his career, will turn 30 years old this season and plays for a Denver team that doesn’t project to be very good. However, Moreno is an injury risk (and has reached 20 carries during just seven of his 29 career games played) and is hardly an overly talented back himself. Moreover, new coach John Fox likes to implement backfields by committee, and most importantly, it appears McGahee should dominate goal-line work. Now out of Baltimore where he was clearly behind Ray Rice and in a more defensive-oriented division, McGahee is back on the fantasy radar.

This lady took carpooling to the next level.

Not to be outdone, this lady was arrested on charges of DUI not once, but twice in one morning.

Colt McCoy had an awful end to his rookie season last year, recording a 1:6 TD:INT ratio while getting 5.1 YPA over the final two games. However, those outings came against strong defenses (Baltimore and Pittsburgh), and it’s worth noting McCoy had a higher completion percentage (60.8% vs. 60.0%) and a much higher YPA mark (7.1 vs. 6.0) than Sam Bradford, and he didn’t benefit from playing in a dome stadium (and easier division) like the more highly touted rookie. McCoy no doubt has a weaker arm than Bradford and remains an injury risk, but he’s highly accurate and shouldn’t be ignored in dynasty leagues. For what it’s worth, McCoy entered Thursday leading the NFL in passer rating (132.6) during the preseason, and he continues to impress coaches in practice. Cleveland’s receiving corps remains one of the weakest in the league, but at least Greg Little offers some long-term upside, and McCoy offers some rushing ability for a quarterback. He’s a sleeper in 2-QB formats.

Arizona woman hopes to become world’s first infinity-sized model.

Speaking of plus-size, seriously, what’s up with this baby?

What do we make of the Peyton Manning injury situation? The guy has started 208 straight games, and former coach Tony Dungy recently stated on national television the only way Manning won’t play Week 1 is if he’s dead. But Colts management doesn’t believe Manning will be available for the start of the regular season, and as a result, has signed Kerry Collins. If Manning isn’t going to be available Week 1, admittedly not a sure thing at this point, that raises the question of exactly how much time he’ll miss, as clearly he’s at risk for it to be lengthy. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo now all have to be drafted comfortably ahead of him, with the likes of Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning strong possibilities too. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Joseph Addai all need to be downgraded as well. Chris Johnson’s similar uncertainty means more since he costs a higher draft pick, but at least you can back him up with Javon Ringer, whereas a lengthy Manning absence would affect so many other fantasy options. I’m not saying Manning has clearly been a better quarterback than Tom Brady throughout their careers, but I will argue his Colts teams have been far inferior. Indy could easily go 3-13 if he were to miss the season. He’s that important.

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By Dalton Del Don

Hakeem Nicks is something of a risk if drafted as a top-five fantasy receiver since he’s missed five games over the first two years of his career and was banged up in others, but he revealed a ton of potential racking up 79 receptions for 1,052 yards and 11 touchdowns over just 13 games during his second year in the league last season. At 6-1, 215, Nicks is physical and willing to go over the middle yet also possesses plenty of speed, evidenced by his 20 catches for 20-plus yards in 2010. Last year’s 8.2 YPT wasn’t anything special, but it’s worth noting Nicks was one of just eight receivers to see more than 25 percent of his team’s targets, according to Pro Football Focus, and that number should only increase with the departure of Steve Smith (Eli Manning relies as much on his X and Z receivers as any quarterback in football). Moreover, Nicks was targeted 12 times inside the 10 last season – the leader was Larry Fitzgerald with 14, and Nicks did that in just 13 games. As a second round pick, there’s no doubt Nicks carries some risk with his questionable durability and lack of a track record, but his per-game stats prorated to 97 catches, 1,295 yards and 14 touchdowns over a full season last year, and it’s safe to expect him to further improve during his third year as a pro. Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White are safer options, but only Calvin Johnson matches Nicks’ upside from the receiver position.

One of the most sexist ads of all-time.

Deacon Jones, on the other hand, is a staunch backer of equal rights.

I entered summer somewhat down on Felix Jones but have since joined the ever growing hype train (late to the party, I know). His lack of goal-line work (he’s just 1-for-6 there over the past two seasons) remains a concern, but he’s explosive and plays in a potentially extremely high-powered offense, so while he scored just two total touchdowns last year, there’s no reason he can’t reach eight or so in a similar way LeSean McCoy can. While Jones saw his YPC drop from 5.9 in 2009 to 4.3 last season, he improved greatly as a pass catcher, as he racked up 49 receptions for 450 receiving yards after entering with a career total of just 21 and 129, respectively. With Marion Barber out of Dallas, Jones is looking at a career-high workload in 2011, barring injury. He’s never going to be a 325-carry guy, but with his newfound ability as a receiver, all it would take is 250 rushing attempts (say 15-17 carries a game) for him to be a potential major fantasy factor. Coaches have soured on Tashard Choice, and rookie DeMarco Murray continues to battle the injury-prone label, whereas Jones has had a fantastic camp so far. As the lead back in an offense featuring Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, Jones shouldn’t be overlooked in fantasy leagues.

This mockup of sportscasters by “Batting Stance Guy” slayed me. Tim Kurkjian is hilarious.

This is likely the last red card this ref ever considers giving.

What Josh Freeman did last season shouldn’t go unnoticed. Considered raw coming out of Kansas State, he completed 61.4 percent of his passes with a 25:6 TD:INT ratio during just his second year in the league. Thanks to a more difficult schedule and some natural regression after the Bucs were generally considered quite lucky in 2010, most expect Tampa Bay to take a step back this year, and Freeman’s stats may suffer as a result. While there’s little doubt last season’s INT% isn’t sustainable, from a fantasy perspective, things could actually get better. For one, a tougher schedule should result in playing from behind more often, which should lead to more pass attempts, as the Bucs ranked 23rd in that category last season. Moreover, considering Freeman got 7.6 YPA with a 15:1 TD:INT ratio over the second half of last season, it sure seems like he’s improving with more experience, and further growth could be expected in year three. Mike Williams has a ton of talent and should only get better as a sophomore now capable of running more than just a handful of routes, and add in Arrelious Benn along with a healthy Kellen Winslow who had the rare offseason without a knee surgery, and Freeman has more than enough weapons to work with. It would be nice if LeGarrette Blount was a better pass catcher, but his tackle breaking ability will also demand opposing defenses’ attention. Carolina is obviously a plus matchup, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if shootouts ensued versus the Saints and Falcons, so Tampa’s division is also a plus. Finally, only Michael Vick had more rushing yards as a QB than Freeman last year, and at 6-6, 248, it’s safe to call it a fluke he didn’t run for a single score. Freeman is just another reason to wait on quarterbacks in fantasy leagues, as I’d feel comfortable with him as my QB1.

This chimp makes a gorilla look like a chump.

I’m guessing this marriage didn’t end happily.

I’ve been burned by Beanie Wells each of the past two years, yet still find myself willing to give him another chance this season. I’m not some crazy apologist – he’s clearly injury-prone and was downright awful when on the field in 2010. During his rookie season, fumbles could be blamed for his lack of carries. Last year’s excuse was a preseason knee injury that lingered throughout and sapped all his explosiveness. With Tim Hightower jettisoned, this is seemingly Wells’ make-or-break year, as even with second round pick Ryan Williams in tow, Arizona’s coaching staff is apparently going to give Wells every chance to act as the team’s feature back in 2011. When healthy, he has the physical tools to take advantage of it, but at some point, that statement comes off as me saying if I threw 100 mph I’d pitch in the majors or if my uncle had a sex change he’d be my aunt, as Wells needs to actually prove he can remain durable. I’m not the biggest Kevin Kolb fan, but there’s little doubt he’ll be an upgrade at QB (last year Arizona quarterbacks combined for a 50.8 completion percentage with 5.8 YPA and a 10:19 TD:INT ratio), and it’s an inherent advantage playing in the weak NFC West. Fool me once, shame on Wells. Fool me twice, shame on me. Is there a third saying to this?

Asian baller schools and dunks on LeBron James.

Tony Romo’s bachelor party sounds like it got out of control.

Dallas police on the lookout for pantie-headed bandit.

After Vincent Jackson’s impressive, albeit brief, performance on national TV recently, he’s likely shot up draft boards, and rightfully so. VJax has never had 70 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards or double-digit touchdowns in a season during his career, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he passed all those marks in 2011. As a deep threat, he loses some value in PPR formats, but at 6-5, 230 and in a dominant passing attack, there’s no reason he can’t reach a dozen touchdowns, especially with Antonio Gates continuing to battle foot problems and TD machine LaDainian Tomlinson no longer on the roster. Once again playing for a big contract, Jackson will be highly motivated and has the benefit of one of the best quarterbacks in football throwing to him as the team’s clear WR1. After missing the first 14 weeks of last season thanks to a holdout and calf injury, he promptly racked up 112 yards and three touchdowns in his second game, revealing the kind of upside matched only by a handful of other receivers. One year after Jackson got a whopping 11.8 YPT (the highest since the yards-per-target stat was tracked) on a ridiculous 69 percent catch rate, Jackson got 10.3 YPT in his brief action last season, so even a modest increase in looks would make him an easy top-five WR. I’d certainly prefer Jackson over Dwayne Bowe.

55-year-old casino exec releases one of the worst rap videos ever.

While I wish this clip wasn’t so cut up, I dominated this argument (although admittedly, after the fact it sounds like Vince Young is actually battling Mike Kafka to even win the QB2 role).

I’ve never been a big Tim Hightower fan (of course, this probably has everything to do with owning Beanie Wells the past two years), and Pro Football Focus actually graded him as the worst running back in the NFL last season, with his biggest liabilities coming as a pass catcher and blocker, which doesn’t exactly fit his narrative as a great third down back. Regardless, what matters most to fantasy owners is that Mike Shanahan is apparently a big believer, and with the competition dwindling (I like Ryan Torain, but he can’t stay healthy, and while I still consider Roy Helu a nice late round flier, he appears a ways off from contributing), Hightower is seemingly Washington’s feature back, although it’s worth noting his previous fumbling problem has carried over into practices this year. While I admittedly question Hightower’s talent, this is a back who’s one year removed from racking up 63 receptions, got 4.8 YPC last season playing in a bad offense and has totaled 23 rushing touchdowns over the past three years despite never seeing more than 153 carries, so if he truly becomes a lead back in a Shanahan offense, a role that looks increasingly likely, he’s going to make an impact in fantasy leagues.

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By Dalton Del Don

I keep preaching patience with quarterbacks, but I do admit Michael Vick offers more fantasy upside at the position than ever before and wouldn’t fault someone for taking the plunge. If you prorate the 11 games he started and didn’t leave early with an injury last year over a full season, you get this: 4,319 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 959 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. In standard scoring formats, that’s equivalent to throwing for 6,237 yards with 51 passing touchdowns, making Tom Brady’s 2007 campaign look tame in comparison. Vick is still in the prime of his career, playing for a new contract and finally has his head on straight, willing to put in the work necessary to reach his potential. He also has a terrific Andy Reid scheme with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin at his disposal, which almost seems unfair. Of course, there’s very real injury concerns with him, as I’d probably set the over/under on games played somewhere around 13. While last season’s pace may not be sustainable, Vick is also now more comfortable in Philly’s system (his YPA jumped from 7.6 to 8.5 from his first six starts compared to his final six last year), and he also gets to toy with the NFC West in 2011. Again, I personally shy away from quarterbacks early in fantasy drafts, but there’s an argument to be made Vick should be the first player off the board this year.

Although not (yet) incarcerated, I too suffer from the same affliction.

I pathetically can’t even use chopsticks at Asian cuisine. This boss is using them to pickpocket.

A revenge plot so intricate, the prosecutors were pawns.

Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the tougher players to evaluate entering 2011 because of his unclear health status. He totaled 1,641 yards over 14 games last season while playing through a knee injury the entire time. While his touchdown total dropped to seven, he averaged 13.5 TDs over the previous four seasons, and since three of those came in a timeshare, it’s a safe bet to expect his scoring to rebound in 2011. But if the rumored “bone-on-bone” condition exists like a game of tummy sticks, then MJD is an awfully risky pick, one that will certainly cost a first rounder. Still, it’s not like others who will go at a similar time like Darren McFadden, Frank Gore and Michael Turner don’t also come with question marks. And while Rashad Jennings’ emergence could cause concern of a committee, Jones-Drew was on pace to finish with a career-high 342 carries last year, so Jacksonville relied on him more than ever. The presence of Jennings could actually be a positive, as there’s now a clear cut handcuff to back MJD up with, meaning you’d likely maintain 85 percent of the production should he go down. While the offense may take a step back should the team turn over QB duties to rookie Blaine Gabbert, Pro Football Focus graded the Jaguars as the fourth-best run-blocking unit in the NFL last season, so it’s an underrated offensive line. I wouldn’t fault anyone if they shied away because of the knee issue, and I imagine I ranked him higher than most in the magazine, but don’t forget Jones-Drew was a unanimous top-three fantasy pick last season and is still just 26 years old with a modest career workload.

This mayor has decided to punish those who park their cars illegally with a tank. I especially like how he swept up the glass afterward.

Seriously, what’s up with this guy? The slowest walker ever.

This footage of Kevin Durant’s first visit to Rucker Park (where he dropped 66 points) is pretty sick.

Last week I spoke of the debate between Ray Rice vs. LeSean McCoy after the “big four” were off the board, and since then, the former officially lost Willis McGahee as a goal-line vulture and added FB Vonta Leach, while the latter welcomed Ronnie Brown as a teammate. Brown’s addition to Philadelphia shouldn’t affect McCoy’s value much, but Rice’s should receive a nice boost with the other news. After eclipsing 2,000 total yards during his second season in the league, Rice was something of a disappointment to fantasy owners last year, as he finished with 119 fewer rushing yards despite seeing 53 more carries. Still, he totaled 1,776 yards with 63 catches, so he was hardly a bust. Dealing with a knee injury and an offensive line that went from a strength in 2009 to a weakness in 2010, Rice forced just five missed tackles on 307 rushing attempts, which was the lowest ratio in the NFL. Still, he enters 2011 back to full health and could even grab the goal-line carries with McGahee gone. While the addition of Leach might not have as big of an impact as some media are making of it, the move certainly doesn’t hurt, neither does a schedule that faces the NFC West this season. There’s also a chance Joe Flacco takes “the leap” this year into stardom, which would result in more scoring opportunities. Rice shouldn’t make it past the middle of the first round of fantasy drafts.

Pretty touching (that’s right, I said touching) story about someone who inexplicably suffered paralysis during his teenage years only to miraculously recover later.

Brendan Ryan with an infield triple.

An interesting idea to combat our nation’s debt crisis.

Brandon Lloyd is looking more and more like a bargain. I don’t blame people for being skeptical. After all, Lloyd had never even reached 750 receiving yards during his eight-year career before finishing as the No. 1 fantasy wideout last season. He also moves from having pass-happy Josh McDaniels as head coach to run-first John Fox. There is certainly a possibility he’s a one-hit wonder who’s a major bust in 2011. But Lloyd’s current ADP is 42, so I’ll sign up for grabbing someone who had 1,448 receiving yards with 11 touchdowns last season in the fourth round. It’s unlikely Lloyd pulls a Jose Bautista or Jered Weaver (two who dropped in fantasy baseball drafts as most questioned the extent of their regression, when in reality they have actually only gotten better), but at some point, let’s not outthink ourselves where credit is due. Lloyd flashed plenty of potential back in his days with San Francisco, and he remains Denver’s clear No. 1 target. While he actually performed just as well (slightly better even) with Tim Tebow at quarterback, most agree the move to Tebow in a full-time role would also cause a hit to Lloyd’s value, but it now seems as though Kyle Orton will enter the year as the Broncos’ starter. And for all the talk of Fox wanting to go run-heavy, Denver’s defense looks terrible, so they may be forced to play catch up quite a bit in 2011, and Fox has produced some monster seasons from his WR1 in the past (even the year Steve Smith went down with an injury, Muhsin Muhammad then proceeded to catch 93 balls for 1,405 yards and 16 touchdowns). I hope the Lloyd skepticism remains in my drafts.

This news crew deplorably distorted a quote just a bit.

Messy burglar smears house, even dog with peanut butter and jelly.

Looks delicious.

What do we make of Ryan Mathews? Not only am I confident owners who were burnt by him last year will stay away in 2011, I’m also pretty sure most are still violently angry at those who recommended him (this includes me). In a Norv Turner offense led by Philip Rivers (and in a soft AFC West division), there are few better situations to be in as a lead back. In fact, entering last season, San Diego was coming off a year in which they produced 28 goal-line carries – the most since 2004, which was also the Chargers. While Mathews flashed at times during his rookie campaign, he was never 100 percent after suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 2, and he fumbled five times over just 158 rushing attempts while going 0-for-5 at the goal line. Moreover, Mathews is already dealing with a toe injury this preseason, and he even failed a recent conditioning test. While the latter is probably nothing to worry about, as he’s seemingly a good character guy, it’s entirely possible his body simply can’t hold up at the NFL level. While plenty of rookie running backs have enjoyed big seasons right out of the gate, the unknown makes them inherently riskier, and Mathews is similarly again a gamble entering his second year as a pro. With Darren Sproles’ departure, there’s a big opportunity to rack up receptions in San Diego this year, and while Mike Tolbert enters the favorite to play on passing downs thanks to his superior blocking, Mathews should improve in that area as a sophomore, and he certainly has the physical tools to excel more than Tolbert as a receiver. The Chargers used the No. 12 pick to draft Mathews, so the team still envisions him as their franchise back, and while it remains to be seen if he can take advantage of the opportunity and stay healthy, at least Tolbert is there as insurance for Mathews owners (go ahead and reach a round or two early for Tolbert, to be safe). While playing hurt, Mathews forced 19 missed tackles last year despite playing 291 snaps (which ranked 50th among running backs) – the same amount as LeSean McCoy and more than Frank Gore, Ray Rice and Shonn Greene, so talent exists. Combine that with his situation, and top-five upside remains.

This Russian brawl (near a dolphin pool) is no joke.

Stan Van Gundy has handles.

This kid survived quite a cumbersome injury.

Matthew Stafford has a 54.5 career completion percentage accompanied by a 5.9 YPA and has been the most injury-prone quarterback in football since entering the league, yet I still consider him the QB to target in fantasy drafts this year. Not only does he benefit from the single biggest freak in the NFL in Calvin Johnson out wide, but Brandon Pettigrew at tight end and Jahvid Best out of the backfield are two other major weapons to work with, not to mention rookie Titus Young as a deep threat. Continuity within Detroit’s coaching staff also helps, and while the defense should improve thanks to a potentially dominant line, the secondary remains shaky, and either way, should result in favorable time of possession if opposing teams can’t run the ball. And it wouldn’t be a stretch to envision shootouts with all their division rivals. This is almost certainly like using UZR/150 in baseball (meaning worthless), but Pro Football Focus gave Stafford a grade of 7.9 over his three games last year (in which two came against the Bears and Jets), which would prorate to 126.4 over a full season. To put that into perspective, their highest grade of any QB last year came in at 61.3. Possessing one of the strongest arms in the NFL with potential to improve greatly still just 23 years old (Andy Dalton is older) with the league’s most dangerous wide receiver at his disposal and an offensive coordinator in Scott Linehan who called the third-most pass plays in all of football last season, only health can prevent Stafford from being a top-10 fantasy QB this year, and his upside is actually quite a bit higher.

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By Dalton Del Don

I’m a big fan of LeSean McCoy. After the “big-four,” to me, it comes down to him or Ray Rice next. McCoy isn’t a true workhorse, but Brian Westbrook proved for years that isn’t necessary to be highly productive in Andy Reid’s system. Thanks to an NFL-high 78 receptions among running backs, McCoy totaled 1,672 yards last season despite seeing 20 carries in just one contest. But don’t let that low carry total fool you, as the Eagles clearly trust and rely on him heavily, as McCoy played 837 snaps, which tied for third among backs despite sitting out Week 17 because Philadelphia had nothing to play for. At age 22, McCoy’s five rushes for 40-plus yards led the NFL, so while he’s not going to dominate at the goal-line, he can score from anywhere on the field, and it’s worth noting he received 15 targets inside the red zone, including four inside the five-yard line. While McCoy would see an increase in touches should Michael Vick go down, it would likely be for the best if the QB stayed healthy, as defenses have their hands full focusing on stopping the elusive Vick with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as options outside. McCoy is set up for a huge 2011 season.

One of the better gaffes in recent game show history. Not knowing how many feet are in a yard is one thing, but she must’ve thought those two kids were really tall.

I’m not one to get political, but I must say, I wholeheartedly support Obama’s new high-speed bus plan.

Tony Romo is coming off a season that was cut short after just 5.5 games, but despite the Cowboys’ disappointing record at the time, he had completed 69.5 percent of his passes and was on pace to toss 32 touchdowns while taking few sacks. Because of Dallas’ third-place finish last year, its schedule gets easier in 2011, including facing the weak NFC West. Moreover, with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, few teams can match the weapons at Romo’s disposal. That’s just gravy, as Romo is a true superstar in his own right, as his career 8.0 YPA ranks fourth overall in NFL history, and the three ahead of him played in the 30s, 40s and 50s. It’s possible DeMarco Murray becomes a dominant goal-line back, but the safe bet is Dallas relies on its passing attack this year, and there’s a reasonable argument Romo should be the third quarterback off the board in fantasy leagues.

Our good friend Steve is back at it yet again.

This 747 landing is no joke.

I’m conflicted about Steven Jackson. I want to call him a bust candidate, and I’m almost certain he’ll end up on none of my teams, as I’m unwilling to buy someone so vulnerable to break down at his cost. In fact, Jackson has more touches than any other back in football since 2005 despite missing 10 games over the stretch. Now that’s a heavy workload. Still just 28 years old, Jackson has already accrued 1,878 career carries – to put that into perspective, Frank Gore and DeAngelo Williams, who are the same age, have racked up 1,371 and 841 rushing attempts, respectively. Of course, fantasy owners welcome high volume, but all those touches have seemingly sapped some of Jackson’s explosiveness. He’s averaged just 6.0 touchdowns over the past six years and somehow gained a net total of zero yards on 10 rushes inside the five-yard line last season. However, Jackson may be in a better situation than ever in 2011, with a returning (and competent) head coach in Steve Spagnuolo and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels joining the fold (for all his terrible personnel decisions, of which there were many, McDaniels sure can run a productive offense). Sam Bradford should improve in year 2, and the Rams’ wide receiver crew could quickly go from a weakness to a strength. The defense also has the makings of being sneaky good, and Jackson continues to have the benefit of playing in the NFL’s easiest division. I’m personally staying away, but while on the downside of his career, Jackson’s situation looks to be quite improved this year.

The three craziest photos of the week: here, here and here.

This gentleman appears to be slightly invested in a soccer match.

Sticking with St. Louis, I was pretty surprised to see them at +275 to win the NFC West during a recent trip to Las Vegas. I’m a 49ers fan, but I’m picking the Rams to win this division outright, so any odds are gravy. St. Louis had the seventh most sacks in football last year and added DE Robert Quinn with the 14th pick of the draft. Moreover, the team signed Quintin Mikell, who Pro Football Focus graded as the NFL’s best safety two of the past three years, in free agency. I’m also of the belief some combination of Mark Clayton, Danario Alexander, Donnie Avery, Danny Amendola and Austin Pettis will form a capable WR corps, and don’t be surprised if the team also makes a run at Darren Sproles. I’m all over that bet.

This person took parallel parking to the next level.

“Dead” man wakes screaming after day in morgue.

What is Carolina thinking spending all that money on DeAngelo Williams? I mean, $21 million guaranteed? I don’t care so much he’s already 28 since his career workload is low, but he’s missed 13 games over the past two seasons while not acting as a true workhorse. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a believer in Williams’ talent and consider him one of the five best running backs in football, but problem is, Jonathan Stewart isn’t far behind (if at all), so why is a team that just finished 2-14 (or any, for that matter) tying up so much money into the most fungible position on the field? Running backs get hurt, fine, but then there’s Mike Goodson on the roster as well. What a mind blowing, awful use of resources, as Carolina clearly doesn’t get it. While some Stewart fantasy owners will hold out hope, pointing to his 1,133-rushing yard, 10-TD season in 2009, realize he got 39% of those rushing yards (and four touchdowns) over the final three games of the year when Williams was sidelined, so he was essentially unusable on a weekly basis beforehand, and Carolina currently fields a much worse team than 2008-2009. While Stewart no doubt has top-10 upside (if not higher), it’s going to take another Williams injury for him to be playable (and this is coming from a Stewart dynasty owner).

Alien life form turns out to be hairless monkey.

A prayer unlike any other.

Tarvaris Jackson is yet another reason to wait on quarterbacks in fantasy leagues. I’m not saying I’d rely on him as a QB1, and of course I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him starting for my favorite NFL team, but he can run (averaged 23.2 rushing yards per game while starting over his career), is moving to football’s easiest division and now has Sidney Rice as a weapon. Jackson should have little trouble beating out Charlie Whitehurst for the starting job in Seattle and got 7.4 YPA with a 10:2 TD:INT ratio over limited work from 2008-2009. Jackson will almost certainly be a below average QB for the Seahawks, but he’s a former second round pick with just 20 career starts under his belt at age 28, so some improvement could occur, especially since his learning curve will be minimal with former Vikings’ offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell (who clearly must see something in him with this transaction) now in Seattle. Jackson can run, plays in the NFC West and has a bona fide WR1 at his disposal, so he’s a worthwhile late round flier.

Did this kid kill a Chupacabra?

Great read about what has happened to Kei Igawa.

LeGarrette Blount admittedly loses a lot of value in PPR formats, but otherwise, I’m willing to take the plunge in the middle of round 2. He led the NFL last year in broken tackles as a runner with 50, which is a remarkable feat considering his 201 carries ranked just 22nd. His 3.7 YPC after contact also was the best in football. However, despite Blount’s big build (6-0, 247), his coaches lost trust in him in short-yardage situations, and the stats backed them up (Blount was just 2-for-9 at the goal line), so securing the role at the goal line will be crucial to his 2011 fantasy value. There’s no reason he can’t succeed there given his attributes as he’s not only a physical beast but also possesses the best hurdle in the NFL, and while some question his speed, Blount’s three carries for 40-plus yards and 10 carries for 20-plus last season both equaled Jamaal Charles’ output. QB Josh Freeman and WR Mike Williams look like stars in the making, so this Bucs’ offense could soon be dangerous. With his ability to break tackles, Blount’s numbers could be scary good if Tampa Bay’s poor offensive line improves.

What exactly is going on here during this robbery attempt?

What exactly is going on in the background of this interview?

Santonio Holmes has played his entire career for run-first teams, something that’s unlikely to change after re-signing with the Jets. However, he’s been both an advanced metric and scout favorite for some time, posting impressive YPT marks throughout his career. He’s one season removed from a 1,248-yard campaign and scored six touchdowns over 12 games while playing for a new team in New York last season. Holmes will not only be more familiar with the Jets’ system in 2011, he should see a big increase in targets with Braylon Edwards likely gone, and Mark Sanchez should also improve during his third year in the league. Holmes will still be in a run-heavy environment, but he’s never been a true WR1 dominating all the looks in the past, but that should change this season, and he has the skills to fully take advantage of the situation.

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By Dalton Del Don

It’s pretty clear the tier 1 of running backs (and overall) features four players, and although they almost certainly won’t finish as such by the end of the year, I do prefer getting a top-four pick, if for no other reason than it gets pretty dicey soon thereafter. I don’t feel strongly one way or the other in the Adrian Peterson vs. Arian Foster debate, and while I also wouldn’t fault anyone for taking Jamaal Charles No. 1, his workload is most questionable of the group, and unlike the three others in this tier (including Chris Johnson), Charles is hardly guaranteed goal-line work. I personally prefer LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice next, but after pick No. 4, each league will likely look very different from then on, so it might make sense to move to the back end of round one if you don’t get a top-four pick. The next tier of backs is so tough to gauge, I’d almost prefer someone else makes the decision for me anyway, which would then also come along with an earlier second round choice (hello Ryan Mathews).

This surveillance video of a Chihuahua staving off a robbery killed me. The L.A. Times even reported the culprits bounced with their bag far from full.

The night Brooks Conrad’s life almost fell apart. He’ll always have a soft spot in my heart as a Giants’ fan, but man, that was one brutal day no one should ever have to endure. What a story.

Preaching patience with quarterbacks is obviously a tired bit of advice, but both Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers are likely to go in the top-15 picks in drafts this year, so it’s clear not all agree with this strategy. Assuming it’s a one-quarterback league (this changes completely in 2-QB formats, even in leagues in which a QB is eligible at the flex position, which is probably the best format strategically), I simply can’t see taking one within the first six rounds or so (assuming Rodgers or Vick don’t fall to the fourth or something). Quarterback is without question the safest position, as an early running back selection carries a far greater likelihood of being a total bust, but the former’s higher floor is also a reason to grab them later on, when plenty of viable options should be available. You can draft multiple (the last to draft a QB, first to draft a backup strategy) and play matchups, but I’d also feel perfectly comfortable with Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford or even Tim Tebow being my No. 1 starter entering 2011. Each of their current ADPs resides outside the top-100 right now.

Great blooper reel. Dadgummit!

This “huge Pats fan” is looking to score some tickets to the New England/New Orleans game this year.

Fantasy owners in dynasty formats should have an interesting upcoming rookie draft. Normally I side with running backs all else equal, especially considering wide receivers typically take 2-3 years to develop, but I’d make A.J. Green the first pick. He’s not in an ideal spot with such an uncertain QB situation, but Green looks like a true “freak,” and with both Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco likely gone, he could dominate targets immediately. I can’t see not taking Mark Ingram next. He only averaged 15.9 carries per game in college and doesn’t appear to be a truly special back, and it’s unclear if Sean Payton will again employ a RBBC, but if he becomes a workhorse in New Orleans’ offense, he’ll make those who took Green before him regret it. I originally had Daniel Thomas ahead of Ingram (in redraft leagues), as it appeared he was going to be Miami’s lead back, but it now seems like he might also be part of a committee. Still, he’s likely the obvious third pick. Julio Jones would probably be considered next, but he’s the fourth option in Atlanta (seriously, how bad was that trade for the Falcons? You’re telling me the Cardinals turn down that same deal for Larry Fitzgerald?). Later, some real interesting sleepers at running back include Roy Helu, Delone Carter and DeMarco Murray. As for rookie quarterbacks, I’d bet right now Andrew Luck appears in more Pro Bowls than Cam Newton, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker combined.

I went to this legit Thai restaurant last week in Las Vegas. If you like spicy food, I highly recommend it. One of the best meals I’ve ever had in my life, hands down.

Watched the last Harry Potter movie last weekend, which I definitely enjoyed. Although after never reading any of the books and without giving any spoilers, I must say, the epilogue was truly awful. I mean beyond terrible.

Shonn Greene’s current ADP is 59.82, which certainly won’t be a reflection of reality come draft day in August in any league I’m in. He absolutely burnt fantasy owners last season, but I believe the Jets’ coaching staff when they say they are going to make him the team’s featured back in 2011, especially since LaDainian Tomlinson himself has even admitted he’s best suited for solely third-down work at this stage of his career. Moreover, the Jets have run the ball 1,141 times the last two years since Rex Ryan took over as head coach – that’s 147 more carries than the next closest team (the Chiefs). Greene takes a hit in PPR formats, but after recording just two catches over the first 20 games of his career, he hauled in 14 receptions for 103 yards over his last nine contests in 2010. That’s not exactly Marshall Faulk in his prime, but 200 additional receiving yards yearly is better than what Michael Turner gives you, and further development can be expected, even if Tomlinson dominates third-down work. Who gets the goal-line carries will be key, and although Greene got just three attempts there last season, he’s certainly built to be successful in short-yardage situations. While I’ve been wrong writing off Tomlinson the past couple of years, he’s now 32 years old with 3,099 career rushing attempts and averaged just 3.28 YPC over the second half last season. Few players typically available as third and even fourth round picks offer as much upside as Greene in 2011.

What an obnoxious penalty kick. Not that I’m against it. We all know the U.S. women’s team could have used such a PK in the final in the World Cup. I kid – what a terrific match. Never expected to get so worked up over it. I was on the edge of my seat. Brutal loss for the U.S.

Mario Manningham is one of my favorite targets this year. I’m pessimistic about Steve Smith’s ability to perform after undergoing microfracture surgery, which should lead to a serious increase in targets for Manningham. Eli Manning has quietly developed into a star over the past couple of seasons (completing 62.6% of his passes with a 7.7 YPA and 58 touchdowns while playing in a windy outdoor stadium. Last year’s 25 picks involved a lot of bad luck (QBs are far less responsible for INTs), and he took just 16 sacks while remaining remarkably durable), and while I’m a huge Hakeem Nicks fan, there’s no denying he’s an injury risk, so imagine if Manningham became New York’s WR1. His touchdown:reception ratio (9:60) isn’t sustainable, but Manningham was highly impressive during his third year in the league last season (after essentially red-shirting during his rookie campaign). According to Pro Football Focus, despite seeing a modest 23 “deep” targets (20-plus yards), Manningham tied for sixth in the NFL with 12 receptions. Only four receivers recorded more yards on deep passes (Brandon Lloyd, Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson and Greg Jennings) and just two scored more long touchdowns (Calvin Johnson and Wallace). Impressive stuff considering Manningham was mostly a WR3 for the Giants. Go get him.

It appears this woman was displeased with the judge’s decision.

It’s no secret I’m a Jay Cutler fan (and not entirely because I resemble him), but after a seemingly modest season last year, realize when looking over his stats they came in 14.5 games, and it’s possible the lasting narrative of him leaving the NFC Championship Game hurt might also bump him down a couple pegs (admittedly, a stretch). Regardless, Cutler will be entering his second year under Mike Martz, which shouldn’t be underestimated, and it’s hard to imagine the Bears’ offensive line being worse than last season, and their wide receiving corps should also improve. Moreover, it’s also a safe bet to expect Chicago’s defense to take a step back, and it’s not crazy to imagine shootouts with Detroit and Green Bay, and it’s not like Minnesota is a poor matchup either. Cutler posted a career-high 7.6 YPA during his first year working with Martz, and if the attempts increase should Chicago’s defense be unable to remain elite, big numbers could be in store, especially since they also face the AFC West in 2011. Plus, his fiancée isn’t exactly hard on the eyes.

Woman pays $10,000 for “non-visible” work of art.

Darren McFadden is one of the most interesting players entering 2011. While his teammate Michael Bush was drafted ahead of him last year, McFadden finally lived up to his pedigree during his third season in the league, totaling 1,664 yards and 10 touchdowns despite missing three games and getting just 223 carries. Known as a burner with sprinter type speed, which was evidenced by his NFL-high 14 rushes for 20-plus yards, McFadden also recorded 3.5 YPC after contact, which was the second best mark in football. He received just four goal-line carries (converting three of them), but because McFadden has become one of the most dangerous backs as a receiver, it wouldn’t be a stretch if someone took him with the fifth overall pick this year. After all, only Arian Foster averaged more yards from scrimmage than McFadden last season (128.0 yards per game. To put that into perspective, Michael Turner averaged 91.0 YPG). Having said that, McFadden seems like a pretty big bust candidate, as he’s jumping about eight rounds in cost and remains a big health risk (he’s never played more than 13 games in his career while never carrying the ball even 225 times). I’m in no way recommending you avoid Run DMC altogether and acknowledge pretty much all backs present some risk, but no first round pick carries more this year, so make sure you go a round or two earlier to secure Michael Bush (whom I’m assuming remains with Oakland) if you draft McFadden.

Like mother like daughter.

Seriously, this lockout should seemingly be finished any minute now. I was once quite pessimistic, but what encouraging news. I’m pumped for some football!

Normally I’m all about young over old in football (although the opposite has become true in baseball, as boring veterans are now the market inefficiency), but I’m on board with Fred Jackson. I agreed with the criticism when Buffalo used its ninth overall pick to select C.J. Spiller, but that was more so because they had far more pressing needs to address, not to mention using a high pick on a running back is insane unless it’s a once in a generation talent, not that I had a problem with Spiller’s ability to play in the NFL, per se. Apparently, that last issue is as great as the first, as Spiller has struggled with the transition. There’s plenty of time to improve, and he proved solid as a receiver, but the Bills’ coaching staff has recently compared him to Reggie Bush, which seemingly means he’s not exactly viewed as a major threat to Jackson’s carries. After Marshawn Lynch was traded last season, Jackson totaled 1,055 yards with six touchdowns over 12 games. His eight dropped passes were most among running backs, but he improved greatly in pass protection. With a shaky offensive line, Buffalo isn’t an ideal situation, but Ryan Fitzpatrick gives them a better QB in 2011 than a handful of teams who will be relying on rookies. Assuming Spiller’s development doesn’t take a huge leap, Jackson should once again pay big dividends in fantasy leagues.

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By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 2-0, winning my best bet. I’m now 7-3 during the postseason, going 2-1 on best bets. Onto the Super Bowl:

Steelers +2.5 at PACKERS (Best Bet)

Comments: Entering the Divisional Round this year, I was 12-25 ATS in the postseason dating back to when I started picking every game in 2007. I’ve since gone 6-0. I’m not exactly sure what this means, but one thing I’m positive of – I have very little feel for the Super Bowl. Full disclosure – I have a 30-1 futures bet (placed in Week 16 for $50) on Green Bay, so I’ll be a huge Packers fan Sunday. As far as hedging goes, I was somehow able to roll the points up to 3 in Reno this week, and it only cost me the normal 10% juice (this still seems incredibly insane, and the only explanation I can come up with is the book is basically begging people to put money on Pittsburgh at this point). Let’s get to some actual game analysis – Pittsburgh seems to have the advantage on defense, running the ball, experience and coaching, and even when you look at respective passing attacks – Big Ben’s 8.2 YPA is right there with Rodger’s 8.3 mark. But the Steelers’ dominant run defense may actually help Green Bay if it forces the team to rely heavily on its passing game, as Rodgers will be the best player on the field. Maurkice Pouncey’s absence may be a bit overblown (he received a -4.2 grade by Pro Football Focus this year), but there’s no doubt his replacement is a downgrade at a pretty important position. This is the lowest point spread in a Super Bowl in nearly 20 years, and it really could go either way, but the fact it’s being played on turf and in a dome no doubt helps Green Bay. In a coin flip, I’ll side with the Pack, if only because I’m going to be rooting heavily for them either way Sunday.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 4-0, winning my best bet. I’m now 5-3 during the postseason, going 1-1 on best bets. Onto the Championship Round:

PACKERS -3.5 at Bears

Jets +3.5 at STEELERS (Best Bet)

Comments:  It seems I’m backing both teams most of the public is also on, made apparent by the lines already moving a half point, but it’s becoming clear that matters little in the postseason. Frankly, I don’t love either bet this week and would stay away.

By Dalton Del Don

The last four Ravens/Steelers games were decided by three points, and it was four points or fewer in each of their past six meetings, and the over/under Saturday was 36 points. So naturally, Pittsburgh won by a touchdown, and they combined to score 55 points. Of course, that’s not to say this wasn’t a close game, but how they got there was pretty surprising…How many times do you see players trying to run toward the end zone well after many whistles have been blown? Well, the opposite occurred during a pretty important game Saturday. What a crazy fumble taken for a TD by Cory Redding…Ray Rice made Troy Polamalu look absolutely silly not just once but twice…Baltimore had the fewest drops in the NFL this year but suffered two crushing ones Saturday. The first by Anquan Boldin in the end zone when it was 24-21, and the second by T.J. Houshmandzadeh, which effectively ended the Ravens’ season…With 2:07 left in the fourth quarter, Dan Dierdorf killed the Steelers for taking a timeout, arguing they shouldn’t be saving Baltimore any time. Problem was, the T.O. came after an incompletion. Seriously, why are announcers so bad?…I was rooting for the Steelers, but I must admit, this call was highly questionable.

I recently participated in a fantasy baseball mock draft, hosted by the good folks at Fantasy Phenoms. The results are here.

This guy is no joke at Wiffle Ball.

The gaffe was mildly amusing, but the others’ responses is what was truly humorous.

Wow, what a performance by Aaron Rodgers. The numbers are incredible (86.1 completion %, 10.2 YPA, four touchdowns, zero turnovers), but they don’t tell the whole story. Rodgers’ ability to escape the pass rush and then break out of the pocket and fire accurate throws downfield was simply amazing. One of the better games played in recent memory. An absolute clinic on how to play the quarterback position. Rodgers now has a 10:1 TD:INT ratio over three career postseason games. I’m beginning to think the 49ers should have taken him instead of Alex Smith…How exactly, did this Packers team lose six games this season? And imagine if Jermichael Finley hadn’t gotten hurt (among many others)…Tramon Williams came awfully close to having a Leon Lett moment while strutting in for a touchdown during his pick-six to end the half…Green Bay had zero punts Saturday night…Atlanta certainly proved they had the edge on special teams like most expected, but this game also showed that entering with an advantage in areas like penalty yardage and turnover ratio isn’t exactly a predictive measure. Then again, it also showed just how unlucky the Falcons were, having to play such a dangerous six seed while the Bears got a vastly inferior Seahawks squad…Some interesting coaching decisions. Mike Smith once again showed how willing (and how successful the strategy is) he is to go for it on fourth-and-short, which you knew was the right decision as soon as Troy Aikman disagreed with it – “I’m not so sure you don’t take the points here.” Guess what Aikman, you get “points” for a touchdown too. In fact, four more of them. Aikman wasn’t done making head-scratching comments, as he later proclaimed Mike McCarthy as NFL coach of the year. Actually, as much as I’ve criticized his in-game management this season, McCarthy impressed Saturday, refusing to pull off the accelerator (did last week teach him a lesson?). In fact, I actually wanted him to punt up 21 points with 13 minutes left instead of attempting a 50-yard field goal (at that point, the trailing team needs crazy things to occur, so why not just pin them there?), but I can’t have it both ways, so I applaud McCarthy’s effort.

Ricky Gervais just turned in the single greatest hosting performance in awards show history Sunday night. He was absolutely brilliant. So naturally, he’s taking a ton of heat and is unlikely to ever host the Golden Globes again.

While maybe a bit sad for obvious reasons, this is a cool story nonetheless. It also reminds me of “Grizzly Man,” one of my favorite documentaries of all-time, and if you haven’t seen it, do so.

Well, that was a pretty successful first ever postseason pass by Jay Cutler…Thank you for kicking the extra point, Pete Carroll, as that would have been a brutal backdoor cover (albeit a tie). Speaking of Carroll, talk about playing for the friendliest loss and not to win. How can you possibly kick a field goal down 28-0 with two minutes left in the third quarter? Seattle actually ended up scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter! Remember this when coaches make similar decisions in the future. Sure, a comeback seemed highly unlikely, but that doesn’t mean going for a TD there wasn’t the obvious call. You never know. Moreover, they punted down 28-10 with six minutes remaining. Huh? You can’t make this stuff up…Say this for the Seahawks, at least they remained undefeated in games decided by 10 points or fewer this season…Marshawn Lynch didn’t exactly build off last week’s highlight reel run…Mike Martz, you have the lead and a big advantage, what are you thinking with that Matt Forte pass play? And why can’t non-quarterbacks simply throw the ball away if the trick play doesn’t result in a wide open player? They consistently refuse to…Tom Brady, who was the unanimous first QB (and overall, for the most part) taken in playoff fantasy leagues, threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Matt Hasselbeck, who was the unanimous last QB taken, registered 530 passing yards and seven touchdowns. I admit, I didn’t see that coming.

What is Adrian Peterson doing eating McDonald’s?

Finally, an ATM that suits my needs.

While I wasn’t shocked the Jets beat the Patriots (I took NYJ ATS), I also can’t say I wasn’t surprised. What a difference compared to the last time these teams met just six weeks ago. Teams coming off a bye are now just 12-12 over the past six postseasons, and Tom Brady is now 0-3 during his last three playoff appearances (with a 5:4 TD:INT ratio over that span). Other than New England, only three other 14-win teams were one-and-done in postseason history. Brady is undefeated at home over his past 28 regular season games. He’s 0-2 over his past two home tilts during the playoffs…What were your guys’ thoughts about Wes Welker getting benched? I’m mixed. Of course I enjoyed Welker’s foot press conference and am all for adding fun in sports, but part of me also respects Bill Belichick for actually sacrificing his team’s chances of winning when a player doesn’t follow the Patriot way (albeit for just a series). The Jets trash talk like crazy, but Welker’s was pretty personal…I hate after the fact criticism (doesn’t it seem like surprise/trick plays are always universally praised when they work yet killed when they don’t. For instance, while not a trick play, I had no problem when the Chiefs ran a sweep on fourth-and-1 to Jamaal Charles last week, a play call that has been getting slammed. It didn’t work, but how many times have we seen the jumbo package right up the gut fail too?), but I seriously question that fake punt by New England, mainly because of the situation. In general, it’s better to take risks when you are the underdog, not the heavy favorite. Moreover, what was the upside there? There was just 1:06 left in the half and they were at their own 38-yard line. The risk vs. reward made little sense…I have more confidence in Braylon Edwards making a spectacular catch than I do an easy one. And that celebration by him was pretty awesome. Also, Santonio Holmes’ catch in the end zone was terrific. Those Jets’ receivers are quite talented…I was on the fence regarding the Pats going for two down 14-9 with more than a quarter left, but ultimately I think it was the right decision. Because even if they missed it, and New York kicked a field goal, they could still tie it by successfully converting a two-point try after a subsequent TD…You won’t find a bigger Belichick backer than myself, but New England’s clock management in the fourth quarter was positively perplexing. They actually had a 7:40 drive that only reached the Jets’ 34-yard line (running 14 plays to gain 48 yards, leaving just 5:15 left in the game). And they were down two possessions! Think about that again. I understand New York’s coverage begged them to run, but why were they huddling, often snapping with fewer than five seconds on the play clock? Unbelievable. And if that wasn’t bad enough, they made another huge mistake later. With 2:21 left on 3rd-and-10, they somehow throw a one-yard pass to Wes Welker. An incompletion there isn’t the end of the world at all, as a field goal made the game one possession. However, any completion better get a first down, because as a result, the kickoff came after the two-minute warning, effectively costing the team a timeout (they had two remaining, and they wouldn’t have had to attempt an onside kick, although that would have still been an option). Ultimately, Rex Ryan and the Jets deserve a ton of credit, and they were the better team. Activating a whopping 11 defensive backs, playing a ton of zone and rarely blitzing, the defensive schemes won the game for New York, who is definitely a team worthy of playing in the AFC Championship for the second straight season.

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The following song is not only NSFW, but I’m also pretty sure it’s not safe for common decency either.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 1-3, losing my best bet. Onto the Divisional Round picks:

Ravens +3 at STEELERS

PACKERS +2.5 at Falcons

Seahawks +10 at BEARS (Best Bet)

JETS +9 at Patriots

Comments: I expect Chicago to roll, but I had a hard time picking the Jets/Pats game. I could easily see another blowout, but it’s pretty crazy how much this line changed from when these two teams met just six weeks ago.

Check it out. This one gets heated toward the end.

By Dalton Del Don

While the Seattle upset was obviously a bit surprising, what made it especially more so was the fact they found themselves down 10-0 right away. It seemed to me they would be particularly ill equipped to play from behind…I really didn’t know Pete Carroll and Matt Hasselbeck had it in them. Two terrific performances Saturday. It wasn’t fun watching Hasselbeck after I chose Mark Sanchez over him as my second QB in a playoff fantasy league…I’m beginning to question whether Reggie Bush lacks durability…A defending Super Bowl champion hasn’t won a playoff game since 2004…When the Seahawks aren’t blown out, they are the best team in the NFL (8-0 in games decided by 14 points or fewer)…Saturday marked the first time Drew Brees wasn’t intercepted since Week 4, and he was only sacked once…As much as I praised coach Carroll earlier, his decision making at the end of the game was questionable. After calling two straight run plays for Marshawn Lynch (who didn’t pick up a first down), he then just kneeled the ball, and the game was over (New Orleans had only one timeout to begin with). I guess the runs ran a couple more seconds off the clock than a QB kneel, but was that really worth the risk of a fumble at midfield up just five points?…Speaking of Lynch, I’ve heard his 67-yard touchdown run called the best of the season, but come on, it was definitely the best run ever, right? I don’t want to be hyperbolic, and I guess a safer way of me saying it is “in my lifetime,” but I can’t even come up with a No. 2 to compare it to. If you had me name running backs who would produce “the best run ever,” I would have named at least 30 before Lynch in today’s NFL. Considering it happened in a close playoff game late in the fourth quarter, that only enhances such a sick run that produced a whopping eight broken tackles.

I had a vested interest in Oregon winning Monday night, but I’m guessing this guy was even more upset at the outcome.

You know when you go to some restaurants, and the waiter or waitress won’t write down any of your order, kind of just to prove how awesome their memory is? That always drives me nuts and convinces me our order will be messed up. Well, I can’t argue against eliminating the human element.

While it appears most online books have them lower, my friend who lives in Las Vegas alerted me today that “The M” had the Milwaukee Brewers at 40-1 to win the World Series. While future bets like this really aren’t that smart, I couldn’t help myself not to throw $50 on it. In comparison, the Nationals were 35/1, the Marlins 30/1 and the Padres 30/1. In fact, the only NL teams listed as bigger long shots were the Diamondbacks, Astros and Pirates!

I feel like I’ve somehow become something of a Peyton Manning apologist, and I understand some criticism is merited since he’s now just 9-10 during the postseason throughout his career, but he just completed 69.2 percent of his passes while getting 8.7 YPA while taking only one sack and not committing a turnover against a strong Jets’ defense with a depleted receiving corps (I know the great ones make the receivers and not vice-versa, but this statement holds even more true when you consider Reggie Wayne was also non-existent). That’s an awful Colts team, with a bottom-five coach in the league. This is like LeBron James and the Cavs, only playing in a far more team dependent sport (albeit the QB is disproportionately important)…Mark Sanchez was not good Saturday night…Why did Dominic Rhodes get more carries than Joseph Addai?…Adam Vinatieri is the man, no doubt about it…What was up with Rex Ryan’s eye? That must have been some halftime speech. Not sure why he didn’t call a timeout (he had all three remaining) when the Colts had the ball at their own 36-yard line on 1st-and-10 with 1:42 left in the fourth quarter, allowing Indy to run 32 seconds off the clock…Of course, that blunder pales in comparison to Jim Caldwell’s absolutely dumbfounding timeout called about a minute later, but that’s been criticized ad nauseam. But this should come as no surprise to those who have followed Caldwell, who also made one of the dumbest challenges earlier in the game when it was quite clear the punt went right through Santonio Holmes’ legs. Without question, Caldwell is one of the worst coaches in the NFL.

This guy (I feel like Jon Gruden) is 18 years old. Seriously. Meet Thapa Magar, the shortest man in the world.

This feel good story got sad fast.

This video probably deserves an even greater warning than NSFW. And while I acknowledge it’s horrible, and the woman should be locked up, I must admit, I have watched it a few too many times to claim I didn’t find it funny. I mean, the trance music is mesmerizing, and the woman’s expression throughout it all is just so crazy. And she makes it like a fireworks show, with the finale going all out, and why the random stills? There’s little doubt I’m going to hell.

The Chiefs’ second half Sunday was one of the worst two quarters played in the league this year. How can Jamaal Charles receive one single carry during that span, and Dwayne Bowe get zero targets all game? Unbelievable. Charles was .02 YPC away from breaking Jim Brown’s NFL record this season…While visiting some friends in USC back in college, late one night after leaving the bars we ran into Matt Cassel on some fraternity row. Somehow, my friend ended up betting him he’d beat him in a foot race, and after he smoked him twice (the second time he even gave Cassel a head start, just because), Cassel got extremely butt hurt and refused to pay up, so I can’t say I’m exactly shedding tears to see him fail so miserably when it matters most…As someone with rooting interest in the 49ers, I hope Jim Harbaugh is half as good a coach as his brother. This Ravens team is a bit hard to figure out, but they are clearly among the elite in the NFL.

You’ve got to admit “Boats N’ Hoes” was pretty good.

The Falcons deserve credit for taking care of business, and they don’t turn the ball over and have a good special teams, but for those who consider their season a bit lucky, let me flame the fire: opponents made just 15-of-23 field goals against them this season, which is 65.2 percent, nearly 10 percent lower than the next most beneficial team in the league. In comparison, the Chargers didn’t have a single missed field goal against them this year. Breaks.

I understand gas stations keep their refrigerator temperatures high to keep costs down, and maybe 50 percent of their clientele are commuters, but it’s extremely annoying either way. No one is buying a single soda (or juice or water) at such a place not to drink immediately. Seriously, they are all barely consumable. Someone tell the owners I’d be willing to pay higher gas prices for a colder drink on a road trip. That alone I assume would sway them to change their ways.

I’m a huge baseball guy coming off a season in which my Giants became World Champions, and it’s also probably my preferred fantasy sport, but this weekend proved football is the best sport in America. What ridiculously good games. You can’t beat it…DeSean Jackson is an unbelievably talented player and possibly the most explosive in the league, but it’s pretty crazy he finished with just 47 catches for 1,056 yards and six touchdowns this year. He had the season’s most memorable play on special teams, his 22.5 yards-per-catch mark easily led the NFL, and he missed two games, so it’s not a knock. But he ultimately ended the season with just 49 receptions over 15 games…James Starks was impressive, especially when you consider the defense was more likely to key on the run whenever he was on the field…If it wasn’t clear before, Aaron Rodgers’ poor record in close games should 100 percent (or at least something close to it) fall on Mike McCarthy, who is absolutely horrible. Talk about playing not to win down the stretch (and also at halftime, when he allowed Green Bay to run the clock out with 20 seconds left at midfield with a timeout remaining). And what about Troy Aikman telling us that McCarthy told him he doesn’t measure success running the ball by YPC but instead by the number of carries. Huh? That’s like saying you should judge a hitter by RBI more than OPS (and yes, even the latter is rudimentary in this day and age)…Speaking of Rodgers, who I think is pretty safe to call the best player in the NFC by far (yet, he wasn’t even named to the Pro Bowl. And imagine if Jermichael Finley didn’t go down.), now has a 19:2 TD:INT ratio over the past eight games. And those numbers would look even better had James Jones not made such an egregious drop on a perfectly thrown ball on a sure would-be long touchdown Sunday.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 12-4, so my overall regular season record ends at 135-117-4. I won my best bet, so I finished 12-5 there. Onto the Wild Card weekend picks, and we’ll start fresh for the postseason:

Saints -11 at SEAHAWKS

Jets +2.5 at COLTS (Best Bet)

Ravens -3 at CHIEFS

Packers +2.5 at EAGLES

Comments: I actually like the setup for the Saints, coming off a loss while the Seahawks enter following an emotional win that was essentially a playoff game in primetime, but this is the single biggest line of the 2010 NFL season. And that’s a long trip for New Orleans, who has to play in possibly the toughest venue in football. The Saints will also be without Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and both Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston are banged up, while Matt Hasselbeck looks likely to return for Seattle. I’m certainly not saying the Saints shouldn’t be a comfortable favorite, but I’d feel better rolling a teaser up to 18 points than down to four points…I picked Indy without much trepidation, yet I wouldn’t be even a little surprised by a New York upset. Both teams are worse than last year’s versions, when they met in the AFC Championship…The Ravens have been the more legitimate team all season, and the Chiefs have no doubt been aided by a far easier schedule, but Kansas City is coming off a horrible performance, and they were 7-0 at home beforehand. And it’s not like the Ravens are some juggernaut. I’m going contrarian there…The Eagles/Packers matchup is a true coin flip, and I think there’s an argument they are the second and third best teams in the NFL. Of course, the problem is picking which one will win Sunday. On a neutral field, I’d feel confident backing Green Bay, but Philly has been unbeatable coming off a bye under Andy Reid, and this is essentially the same situation (plus I’m hedging since I have a ticket for the Packers to win the SB at 30-1).

By Dalton Del Don

Tom Brady was left needlessly into the third quarter of a blowout, but you have to respect the fact Bill Belichick played to win Sunday, especially since the team has an upcoming bye…After watching Brian Hoyer get 9.4 YPA with a 111.7 QB rating, I think it’s pretty clear the system has made Brady a star and not vice-versa. With Hoyer breathing down his neck, Brady better watch his back in 2011…Ronnie Brown did the unimaginable this season by staying totally healthy yet wildly unproductive.

Remarkably, the Lions were the best team in the NFL against the spread this year…After Brett Favre got 7.9 YPA and posted a 33:7 TD:INT last season, the Vikings enter 2011 with one of the shakiest QB situations in all of football…Calvin Johnson being active yet not seeing the field was the absolute worst-case scenario for fantasy owners still playing in Week 17. Why waste the roster spot if he’s not going to play a snap?…Jahvid Best will present one of the more interesting dilemmas at draft tables next year. After totaling 310 yards and five touchdowns over the first three games this season, he was essentially worthless in fantasy leagues from there on out, failing to top 65 yards rushing while scoring zero TDs on the ground over the final 13 games. The positives: two turf toe injuries can be blamed for it all, and it showed toughness he was able to even play at all. Thanks to so much activity as a receiver, Best still topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage during his rookie season despite the debilitating injuries and getting just 171 carries. If you believe the coaching staff, the toe ailments made a night-and-day difference with his explosion, and a healthy Best has a ton of upside on what could quickly turn into a highly productive offense. The negatives: That 3.2 YPC mark is hard to stomach, especially when you consider the number was actually lower before the turf toe problems popped up. And while he’ll enter 2011 with fresh feet, Best still needs to be viewed as a health risk, and it remains unlikely Detroit ever gives him 300 carries even if he remains injury-free. His 1.8 YPC after contact was the lowest in the NFL, and Pro Football Focus graded him as the second-worst running back in football this season (with Tim Hightower being the worst).

The offhanded final sentence to this story killed me.

It’s been a while since a franchise’s future depended so much on a stay in school versus come out decision like Carolina is dealing with when it comes to Andrew Luck. The 49ers should hire Jim Harbaugh and offer the Panthers their entire draft to move up six spots…On a neutral field, I’d argue the No. 1 seeded Falcons would be underdogs against every NFC playoff team except the Seahawks (and the Giants would probably be a pick ‘em too). Of course, that doesn’t mean Atlanta shouldn’t be the favorite to come out of the NFC right now.

Talk about laying an egg, Kansas City, allowing Oakland to become the first team in NFL history to go undefeated in their division yet not make the playoffs. I would not have fired Tom Cable…Speaking of possible firings, if Jamaal Charles doesn’t get 80 percent of the carries against the Ravens, Todd Haley deserves to get canned immediately afterward…In 2008, Michael Bush ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns in Week 17, and he just totaled 171 yards with a TD run Sunday. The man cannot be stopped during the final week of the season (except in 2009, but that ruins my narrative).

This invention is pretty cool, although I certainly hope it’s not relegated to terrible beers.

I’d be shocked if there was ever a more productive season by a wide receiver who recorded just 60 catches than Mike Wallace in 2010. And remember, he was held to 25 yards or fewer in two of the games before Ben Roethlisberger returned from his suspension. During just his third year in the league, Wallace will unquestionably enter 2011 as a top-10 fantasy wideout…Peyton Hillis will be one of the tougher guys to rank among running backs for next year’s cheatsheets.

There might not be anyone who cares less about who belongs (and who doesn’t) in the baseball Hall of Fame than me.

I guess that whole Brian Brohm versus Chad Henne debate looks moot right about now…Those who stashed Joe McKnight all season were rewarded handsomely Sunday. Seriously, this year proved once and for all fantasy leagues need to end before Week 17…I never like to write anyone totally off, but C.J. Spiller’s rookie season was highly discouraging. Of course, that also makes him a nice buy-low target moving forward, and a Fred Jackson injury could make him quite valuable.

A truly remarkable story that is a must-read.

There are some pretty impressive counterparts, but I’d argue Josh Freeman, Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount are absolutely in the conversation among the best triplets in football moving forward…I hate to play the what if game, but Tampa Bay’s Week 15 loss at home to the Lions stings even more after what happened Sunday. Especially when you consider this…For those of you playing in a fantasy league in the playoffs (and really, why wouldn’t you? Six people works perfectly), Julius Jones makes for an interesting late round flier. We really have no clue as to Pierre Thomas’ availability, and Chris Ivory was just placed on IR.

I’m curious if Slippery Pete was in anyway involved.

I turned down a trade last week involving Jerome Simpson in a dynasty league. I very well may live to regret it…Over his past 844 rushing attempts, Cedric Benson has scored just 15 touchdowns…Despite facing a team that was undefeated at home this season until Week 17, Baltimore is three-point favorites in Kansas City, which is pretty interesting. The “sharps” will hammer the Chiefs, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re right. Should be a good game either way…Billy Cundiff is the man…I’ve killed this issue enough this season, but I can’t stop until the madness does. At the end of Sunday’s game, the Bengals spiked the ball on 2nd-and-1 from Baltimore’s two-yard line with 22 seconds left down six points. Their next play took a whole three seconds, so they were then left with a fourth down with 19 seconds left. Another incompletion followed, so they turned it over on downs with 10 seconds still remaining. Andy Reid thinks this was horrible clock management.

These commercials are legit.

Make no mistake this Bears defense is the real deal and absolutely championship worthy. We’ll see if the offensive line and offense are also up to the task…Eagles v. Packers is easily the game of the Wild Card weekend, and Philly better be prepared for a ton of blitzes…Despite topping 40 yards just once (when he got 82) over the first five games this season, Greg Jennings finished with 1,265 receiving yards – the fourth most in the NFL. Most will disagree, but I can see taking Jennings over Roddy White in non-PPR leagues in 2011.

If by “obnoxious” they meant hilarious, then I agree.

Mario Manningham’s 92-yard TD catch was the longest reception of the season…Osi Umenyiora set an NFL-record by forcing a whopping 10 fumbles this year…I love Hakeem Nicks and no receiver has as much upside as him entering 2011 (expect maybe Calvin Johnson), but he simply must be considered an injury risk at this point. There’s no way around it…Pro Football Focus gave Ahmad Bradshaw a grade of 10.6 in blocking. To put that into perspective, the next best RB was Fred Jackson at 4.6 (which is pretty surprising since Jackson finished dead last in the category last year at -6.7), so that’s an extreme lead. Bradshaw deserves a big payday, so we’ll see if the Giants reward the free agent…Ryan Torain averaged 3.4 YPC after contact this season, which tied for fourth-best in the NFL. He remains a huge injury risk, but if he somehow stayed healthy and was given the role as Washington’s true workhorse next year, big things could follow.

Fascinating results that should further the movement to basically question everything. I’m sure there’s some connection with sports and sample sizes here too.

While not exactly surprising, where was that performance in Week 16 Rashad Jennings?…I believe in the talent and love the setup with Gary Kubiak returning, but it’s kind of weird how those who finish with the best numbers the previous year are then reflexively ranked No. 1 the following campaign on most cheatsheets. I love Arian Foster, but should he be the no-brainer No. 1 pick in 2011? I’m personally on the fence…If you prorate Owen Daniels’ last four games over a full season, you get 88 catches for 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns. I’m under no illusions he’ll come cheap at draft tables next year, but he’s probably worth reaching for. A healthy Daniels has about as much upside as any tight end in the league.

This is pretty crazy. I’m rooting for this guy. (h/t Jonah Keri)

Kevin Kolb played without all of his team’s best offensive weapons Sunday, but he was at home and remained in a terrific system, so it’s worth noting the awful stats (50.0 completion percentage, 4.5 YPA, one touchdown, four turnovers) against a Dallas defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2010…Felix Jones has become the Cowboys’ featured runner, and he’s fully capable of rebounding in the YPC department next season, but once Marion Barber leaves, Tashard Choice may become the better back to target in 2011 fantasy leagues. Jones has just two touchdowns this year over 233 touches. And Choice will obviously come way cheaper.

I could understand family members being a bit upset over this.

It speaks volumes about Donald Brown ceding so many carries to Dominic Rhodes. Although that may not continue after the latter’s egregious fumble late in Sunday’s game. Only that was countered by an even worse one during a snap by Kerry Collins, turning a sure win into a loss. Crazy turn of events involving two lost fumbles in the final 90 seconds…Kenny Britt won’t be a secret, and he’s definitely an injury risk, but he’s also capable of finishing 2011 as a top-five fantasy wide receiver. If Arizona doesn’t do something drastic to address its quarterback position, I’d prefer Britt over Larry Fitzgerald next year…I get his owners’ frustrations this season, but there’s no way Chris Johnson lasts past the fifth pick of next year’s drafts, right?…I try not to be hyperbolic, but I really can’t remember an athlete running out of gas like this ever. And it’s not like he’s some lineman or something. It’s almost as if Antoine Bethea didn’t care I had the Colts in a teaser with the 49ers!

This guy is no joke. And bear in mind, death can result.

I can’t think of a crueler thing for Ryan Mathews to do to his owners this year than having such a terrific Week 17. Seriously, how frustrating. It also likely raises his price tag for prospective owners next year. Clearly, the guy can play…I try to keep an open mind with all things NFL, but I must admit, Brandon Lloyd leading the league in receiving yards is pretty mind-blowing…Although they still won, it was only fitting to see San Diego’s special teams allow Denver to recover the onside kick at the end of Sunday’s game. And with Tim Tebow’s magic, I’m actually surprised neither of his two Hail Mary attempts landed in the arms of a Bronco. While it seems like most of his passing stats come on simple screens, and his accuracy remains an issue, Tebow will be a viable fantasy option moving forward because of his running ability…San Diego became the first team in NFL history to finish top-three in offense and defense and not make the playoffs. And this is underrated, but they actually ended up ranked first in both categories (getting 395.6 ypg on offense and allowing 271.6 ypg on defense)! And I’m pretty sure having an easy schedule makes that feat actually worse, not better. I certainly can’t think of someone ever more deserving to be fired than Norv Turner as a result. Not only did they have the best offense and defense in the NFL (basing this on yards per game isn’t perfect admittedly, but still), they also had the second most sacks in the league, yet were eliminated from playoff contention even before Week 17. If Turner isn’t fired (which seems unlikely), I’d love to see the scenario that finally prompts such an act in the future.

Believe me, I know no one cares, but I can’t help myself – I went 35-13 against the spread over the final three weeks of the season.

That Larry Fitzgerald was able to gain more receiving yards this season compared to last was pretty remarkable. He’s a special player relying on horrible options at a QB position he’s completely dependent upon…Let me repeat, I’m not an Alex Smith apologist and fully believe the 49ers need to address their quarterback situation, but I’d also argue he’s not quite as awful as his public perception suggests. For one, his 82.1 QB rating was the best among all NFC West signal callers, making it hard to blame the disappointment of San Francisco not making the playoffs on him. In fact, Smith had a 9:0 TD:INT ratio inside the 20 this season, recording the best red-zone QB rating in the NFL! Digging deeper, Smith got 8.2 YPA with 11 TDs over five home games this year, despite facing three playoff teams over that span. That’s a season’s pace of 4,195 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. Unfortunately, half the games must be played on the road, but I’d love to see an NFL team implement a strict platoon, treating Smith as a lefty batter who struggles mightily against southpaws.

I think we can all agree the mother and 3-year-old showed up to the agreed upon location.

Sam Bradford was impressive this year, and Rams fans should be encouraged, but even as someone who went on record saying St. Louis should take the QB over Ndamukong Suh, Bradford’s rookie season seems to be a bit overblown. He dealt with a below average receiving corps, but he also got an anemic 6.0 YPA while accounting for nearly as many touchdowns (19) as turnovers (17) despite a ridiculously easy schedule…The brother-in-law of a close friend recently became the sous chef of a high-end restaurant in my town, so I didn’t get around to watching the Seattle/St. Louis battle until later Sunday night on DVR after eating a beautiful 40-day aged New York steak. And I nearly lost such a great piece of meat due to vomiting watching such an ugly affair, although it perfectly represented an abysmal NFC West.

Follow me on Twitter.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 9-7, bringing my season record to 123-113-4. I won my best bet, so I’m 11-5 there. Onto the Week 17 picks:

BUCCANEERS +8 at Saints

BENGALS +10 at Ravens

PANTHERS +14.5 at Falcons

Steelers -6 at BROWNS

Vikings +3 at LIONS

Raiders +3.5 at CHIEFS

Bills +1 at JETS

Dolphins +3.5 at PATRIOTS

GIANTS -4 at Redskins

COWBOYS +7 at Eagles

TITANS +10 at Colts

BEARS +10 at Packers

Jaguars -2.5 at TEXANS (Best Bet)

CHARGERS -3 at Broncos

Cardinals +6.5 at 49ers

Rams -3 at SEAHAWKS

Comments: I understand the Jaguars have something to play for while the Texans don’t, but this line is still surprising. On the road and with Trent Edwards starting at QB, Jacksonville is favored?

By Dalton Del Don

Only one team in NFL history has scored two touchdowns or fewer in every game during a season. Carolina will attempt to match that feat in Week 17…Atrocious quarterback play is far more to blame than himself, but Steve Smith is on pace to finish this season with fewer than 600 receiving yards and just two touchdowns while playing in 15 games. He’s dropped a whopping 10 passes and has caught just 52.9 percent of his targets. Maybe Andrew Luck will help resurrect Smith’s career, but at age 31, he’s clearly no longer an elite fantasy option…I still don’t understand why Pittsburgh’s over/under entering the year was just 8.5.

Despite a plus matchup, Jon Kitna got only 5.8 YPA and somehow managed to throw two pick-sixes against the Cardinals in Week 16. He later left with a hip injury, after which an unknown Stephen McGee came in and played better. Kitna actually played reasonably well after Tony Romo was lost for the season this year, but he killed a lot of fantasy owners relying on him during the championship week, and he’ll be 39 years old next season, so his run even as a backup may be finished…The Cardinals’ upset was even more surprising considering Larry Fitzgerald was held to just one catch for 26 yards. I admit, I had never heard of Andre Roberts before Saturday…My friend Joey lost a teaser because of David Buehler missing an extra point. That’s rough.

The world’s craziest free throw attempt.

Matt Cassel finished Sunday’s win with a 70.6 completion percentage, a 9.2 YPA mark and a 3:0 TD:INT ratio. After throwing just 16 touchdowns with 16 picks last season, he’s currently sporting a 27:5 TD:INT ratio over 14 games in 2010. He’s also cut his sack percentage in half and fumbled 11 fewer times this year compared to last. Cassel has had the benefit of a terrific rushing attack on his side and an easy schedule, but he might be the most improved player in the NFL…Kerry Collins was absolutely brutal Sunday…I’ve heard multiple people claim Chris Johnson as a bust, but while he’s disappointed, he’s on pace to finish the year with 1,620 yards and 12 touchdowns. If you drafted Johnson and didn’t win your fantasy league, it wasn’t because of him…Jamaal Charles enters Week 17 second in the NFL with 1,380 rushing yards, just 56 yards behind leader Arian Foster, despite seeing 80 fewer carries.

Peyton Hillis has been possibly the biggest fantasy surprise of 2010, carrying teams who added him off the waiver wire for most of the year. However, he fizzled at the worst possible time, gaining just 94 rushing yards over Weeks 15 and 16. After scoring 13 touchdowns over the first 11 games, he hasn’t recorded one over the past four contests. Opposing defenses have focused on stopping him more of late, but Hillis has also worn down, as he’s already accrued 324 touches this season after entering the year with just 81 career rushing attempts. Fantasy owners can hardly complain about Hillis’ season, but they will be left with a bad taste in their mouths…Everyone applauds the surprise onside kick, but it can also backfire. After Cleveland failed to recover theirs to open the second half, Baltimore easily drove down the short field to score a touchdown…The Browns’ time management at the end of the first half was as bad as you’ll ever see. It’s now unclear if Eric Mangini believes timeouts carry over to the second half.

Most know by now Tom Brady set an NFL record when he threw his 309th consecutive pass without getting intercepted, and while he’s been a bit lucky with some drops by defenders, the streak is even crazier when you consider his last pick came on the last play of regulation on a hail mary attempt against the Ravens in Week 6…Thanks to a modest 209 rushing attempts (16 running backs have more), BenJarvus Green-Ellis has yet to reach 1,000 yards on the ground this season, but his 12 touchdowns are tied for the second most in the NFL. He doesn’t offer much as a receiver, and he’s been given 20 carries in just two games all year (season-high is 21 rushing attempts), so he’ll present an interesting dilemma at draft tables in 2011. Assuming the Pats don’t bring in a new back, Green-Ellis has as much scoring potential as any RB in the league playing for New England. Remember, those 12 scores came after not being involved much in the first two games of the season, and Green-Ellis still hasn’t fumbled once during his career. I would love to see his numbers if the Patriots made him a true workhorse…Ryan Fitzpatrick proved to be an upgrade over Trent Edwards and impressed throwing 11 touchdowns over his first four starts this year, but he’s since thrown multiple scores in just two of nine games. After his hot stretch, I strongly recommended him in fantasy leagues, but I’ll freely admit that was ultimately wrong and take solace in the fact I personally lost a lot of FAAB as a result. Fitzpatrick plays in a tough division and often in poor weather conditions, but he’s committed 20 turnovers over 13 games, and both his 57.8 completion percentage and 6.8 YPA mark are pedestrian. New England’s defense has played better of late, but they still deploy a beatable secondary, so Fitzpatrick’s performance Sunday (48.6 completion percentage, 0:3 TD:INT ratio) made it clear Buffalo needs to aim higher at the quarterback position…The fewest turnovers in a given season in NFL history is 13. The Patriots currently have committed just nine.

Good riddance, Mike Singletary. The guy literally had zero to do with the Xs and Os, so other than locker room speeches, the one thing he couldn’t get wrong was a decision like starting Troy Smith over Alex Smith, and then getting into a near physical confrontation with the former on the sidelines during the team’s biggest game of the season was the final straw. I’m not an Alex Smith apologist, but he’s a better quarterback than Troy Smith…Alex Smith lost a crucial fumble, but it came on a play in which Chris Long abused Anthony Davis, who has been one of the five worst tackles in the NFL this season. What a bust…Just because Vernon Davis tried to catch a ball whizzing above his head at high speed does not necessarily mean the TD toss to Michael Crabtree was actually intended to the tight end…Steven Jackson had 24 carries for 48 yards. Wow…Although Danario Alexander ended up stepping out of bounds by a half inch afterward, that still doesn’t excuse the fact Shawntae Spencer didn’t even bother trying to touch him while on the ground after getting beat for a 46-yard gain. Truly pathetic. Only health can prevent Alexander from becoming a major fantasy factor in the future.

The Lions went 26 games (that’s a lot of days, but I’m too lazy to do the math) before winning on the road in Week 15, and then won again away from home seven days later in Week 16. The Dolphins are somehow 6-1 on the road and 1-7 at home this season…Miami allowed 17 points over a two minute and 26 second span late in the fourth quarter Sunday…Chad Henne is terrible.

First Toledo goes for a two-point conversion down 31-30, then FIU gains 17 yards and one inch on a hook-and-lateral on 4th-and 17 afterward, leading to a game-winning field goal. I’m not a big college football fan, but I run a confidence pool every year, so I definitely get into all the bowl games. Sounds like I picked the wrong time to go to the movies Sunday night (only because the NFL game was canceled). That said, “Black Swan” was pretty awesome. I make end of the year lists, and Darren Aronofsky has now directed three I’ll put at No. 1 in their given year. I also really liked this tweet by Michael Ian Black: “Black Swan spoiler alter: Natalie Portman is hot.” Seriously, if she doesn’t win an Oscar, it’s a crime against humanity.

I pegged Rashad Jennings for 125 yards and a score in my Game Capsules column last week and easily considered him a top-10 RB start. I even started him over Peyton Hillis in a crucial championship game in one of my leagues. An apology is probably in order, but it’s not like I would do anything differently in hindsight. He entered averaging 6.8 YPC on the year, and the Redskins have allowed an NFL-high 4.8 YPC, even after shutting down Jacksonville last week. What are you going to do? I’d have no problem using him in Week 17. On a side note, Maurice Jones-Drew’s season becomes all that more impressive after considering he’s been playing on an injured knee all year…Chris Cooley had four drops before it was even halftime Sunday, including one of the worst of the 2010 season. With 72 catches and 796 receiving yards, Cooley has been anything but a fantasy bust, especially since so many tight ends either got injured or disappointed this year. But his 100 targets are the second most among all tight ends (Jason Witten has 114), making Cooley’s three touchdowns really disappointing.

After throwing an egregious pick-six, Jay Cutler picked apart a strong Jets’ secondary Sunday, getting 8.6 YPA with three touchdowns despite completing just 13 passes. His deep ball was impressive, and he’s now totaled seven touchdowns over the past two games, helping fantasy owners when it matters most (although many probably had him benched against the Jets). Cutler hasn’t put up the gaudy yardage totals we all expected under Mike Martz, but his 7.9 YPA mark and 90.6 QB rating are both career-highs, and he’s done so with a middling wide receiver corps in a Chicago environment not conducive for passing. Cutler’s performance against the Jets was highly impressive. And he’s also dating Kristin Cavallari, who isn’t exactly unattractive…Mark Sanchez has 13 dropped interceptions this season. The next highest in the NFL is seven (Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning). That’s pretty incredible luck…You’ve got to admit, Rex Ryan’s wife’s feet are pretty hot.

Andre Johnson owners have to be livid that Houston’s game in Week 16 just happened to be scheduled for late afternoon…It can’t be understated just how bad this Houston secondary is (they are the only team in the NFL to allow a QB rating above 100.0 and their YPA and TD passes yielded are both league-highs), and many of his passes were screens, but I’m intrigued by Tim Tebow. The guy just exudes a star like quality. And nobody tries harder! In all seriousness, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Drew Brees all didn’t have a single 300-yard passing game during their rookie season, something Tebow accomplished during his second start.

There’s nothing wrong with liking a catchy one immediately, but truly great songs typically take multiple listens before fully appreciating them.

Other than Reggie Wayne, only six other receivers in the history of the league have recorded three 100-catch seasons in their career…Donald Brown had six carries in Week 16. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes combined for 29 rushing attempts…Since the Chiefs have only the No. 3 or No. 4 seed to play for Sunday, the Raiders have an even greater chance to become the first team in NFL history to finish with an undefeated record in their division and not make the playoffs.

Despite his teammates struggles, Ryan Mathews totaled 83 yards with a touchdown on just 15 touches in Week 16. It was obviously too little, too late for his fantasy owners, but the key here is Mathews passed the eye test, and if you squint, he resembles a young LaDainian Tomlinson. Of course, Tomlinson has been one of the most durable backs in league history, whereas Mathews has been anything but during his rookie campaign. But it’s been the nagging ankle injury that has plagued him mostly, not a plethora of ailments, and because the problem was clearly more serious than originally reported, his final YPC mark should be taken with a grain a salt. Mike Tolbert could remain a factor next season, even if it’s only at the goal line, but San Diego traded up to take Mathews at the No. 12 pick, so if he can remain healthy in 2011, he’ll likely be the team’s workhorse. He’ll be the very definition of buy low next year, and you probably won’t have to fight anyone who was burnt by him in 2010…Jerome Simpson hauled in six catches for 124 yards and two touchdowns during the Bengals’ win Sunday, as the third-year wideout benefited from Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco both being inactive. Simpson came in with just three catches during his career, as he entered the league extremely raw coming out of Coastal Carolina as a second round pick. The production was against a San Diego secondary that entered ranked among the best in the NFL (although it was somewhat skewed thanks to an easy schedule), and the Chargers were in must-win mode, so Cincinnati’s big game through the air was surprising. Let’s not overreact to one game, and it’s clear Simpson has a long way to go, but he was a highlight reel machine in college, and with Owens and Ochocinco both unlikely to be in Cincinnati in 2011, he’s a terrific chip to own in dynasty leagues…Maybe it was just happenstance, but it’s entirely possible Carson Palmer’s best game of the season wasn’t despite of Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco’s absence. It could have been because of it. Maybe their route running really was the cause of all those interceptions, and he obviously no longer felt the need to force feed a big name.

LeGarrette Blount gained 164 yards on just 18 carries Sunday, and his hurdle was simply one of the best highlights of the 2010 season. He has a ton of work to do as a receiver and blocker, and while his three fumbles on the year aren’t a dramatically high amount, the Bucs have been critical of the way he carries the ball, and his role as the team’s goal-line back has been tenuous. But the negatives end there, as Blount has been one of the most impressive running backs in the league as a rookie who went undrafted. During his six starts this season, he’s averaged 97.0 rushing yards per game. The NFL’s leading rusher is Arian Foster, who has averaged 95.7 yards per game on the ground. This despite Pro Football Focus rating Tampa Bay’s run blocking as the worst in the NFC. Blount leads all of football by getting 3.8 YPC after contact in 2010. If he was more active in the passing game, he’d be a surefire first round pick in fantasy leagues next year, but as is, he’s still unlikely to last much past the middle of the second round…The Seahawks had literally zero at stake when they started their game in Week 16. It all came down to a win or loss versus the Rams in Week 17 regardless of their outcome against the Bucs. While I’m not going to kill Pete Carroll for leaving in his starters, it was pretty crazy to see Matt Hasselbeck leave the game with an injury during a touchdown run when he was untouched. And while I understand how ridiculous it is if a 7-9 Seattle team makes the playoffs while the Giants and Chargers don’t, I’d be absolutely shocked if Roger Goodell changes the rules because of it. It won’t happen.

Mario Manningham is the rare receiver who appears to be much more productive as his team’s No. 2 WR opposed to No. 1…Colleague and friend Scott Pianowski said it best: “Stupid Aaron Rodgers. You’ll never get that “can’t win close games” monkey off your back by throwing 45 on the Giants.”…I could actually see Hakeem Nicks being ranked as the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy drafts next year, but he’s clearly an injury risk…The Giants have allowed 73 points over the past five quarters…Before last week, I placed a $50 bet on the Packers to win the Super Bowl at 30-1 odds. Wish me luck! The fact they are now staring at a round one matchup in Philadelphia (assuming they even win in Week 17, which is far from a sure thing) is probably my worst-case scenario. Andy Reid is unbeatable after a bye, which is essentially what’s now in place for the Eagles.

I like NBA Hangtime for Nintendo 64 better, but the new NBA Jam released for PS3 is definitely worth buying. Speaking of which, an insane ending to an NBA game.

The Falcons are one of the weaker No. 1 seeds in recent memory. If this team wins the Super Bowl, I’ll be shocked…Two interesting prop bets two friends of mine took advantage of during the Monday night game – Michael Turner under 99.5 rushing yards, and Pierre Thomas over 38.5 rushing yards…With Brett Favre all but retired (and by that I mean there’s at least a 35 percent chance he’s finished playing), there needs to be a new gunslinger in the league, and apparently Drew Brees is willing to take the mantle. Seriously, how many risks is he willing to take these days?…Remember when analysts said the Saints would be much easier to defend with Reggie Bush injured. Good times. I have no idea how they managed to still make the playoffs with him missing eight games. He’s clearly so integral to their success (he has negative four rushing yards over the past two games)…Atlanta needed a stop either way, so please explain to me why they punted down three points near midfield on 4th-and-6 with 2:44 left. What a ridiculously embarrassing decision by Mike Smith. Frankly, it was a fireable offense.

He dealt with a ton of pressure, but Michael Vick was not good Tuesday. He had at least two or three potential interceptions dropped…Even during a pedestrian performance, Joe Webb proved why he was so valuable in fantasy leagues he was eligible at wide receiver…Down 10 points at the 50-yard line with 4:23 left in Sunday’s game, Andy Reid chose to punt. You can’t make this stuff up.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 14-2, bringing my season record to 114-106-4. I was somehow 11-0 after the early games and envisioned the impossible, going a perfect 16-0 in a given week – odds are 1 in 65,536. I would complain about how one of my losses was Denver, and I was on the fence about that game even before Tim Tebow was named starter (after I was locked in), but in all honesty, backing Seattle was one of my favorites of the week. Either way, it was a nice comeback after a depressing Week 14. I won my best bet, so I’m 10-5 there. Onto the Week 16 picks:

Panthers +15 at STEELERS

COWBOYS -7 at Cardinals

Lions +3.5 at DOLPHINS

49ers +2.5 at RAMS (Best Bet)

Jets +1 at BEARS

PATRIOTS -8 at Bills

REDSKINS +7 at Jaguars

TITANS +5 at Chiefs

Ravens -3.5 at BROWNS

COLTS -3 at Raiders

TEXANS -2.5 at Broncos

Chargers -7.5 at BENGALS

SEAHAWKS +6 at Buccaneers

Giants +3 at PACKERS

Vikings +15 at EAGLES

SAINTS +2.5 at Falcons

Comments: I’m taking way too many favorites, including ones on the road that are almost assuredly on the sucker side. After I went 14-2 last week, the smart play would be to fade me in Week 16.

By Dalton Del Don

Vincent Jackson rewarded fantasy owners who gambled on him in Week 15, when he recorded five catches for 112 yards and three touchdowns. He was inches away from a fourth score, and his numbers were also subdued thanks to San Diego getting conservative after grabbing a 31-0 lead. Jackson’s performance reminded everyone why he wants a huge contract – he’s highly talented. Malcom Floyd returning to action would cut into Jackson’s targets, but that’s hardly a guarantee for Week 16, and Antonio Gates remains highly questionable as well. Fantasy owners should start Jackson with confidence this week…Michael Crabtree has totaled a paltry 10 receptions for 126 receiving yards over the past five games, as he’s been one of the bigger fantasy busts of 2010. He’s hauled in more than five catches and reached 65 receiving yards during just one game all season long. Crabtree has a lot of work to do with his route-running, and it’s surprising to see a pedestrian receiver like Josh Morgan out produce him. Crabtree has scored five times this year, and there remains plenty of untapped upside for the sophomore wideout, but the 49ers badly need to upgrade the QB situation if he’s ever going to reach his potential…Only Joe Theismann would call it a “gutsy decision” for the 49ers to accept a penalty giving them a first down after kicking a field goal…Matt Millen: “I think the loss of Justin Smith has hurt San Francisco’s defensive front.” Really? As opposed to what, helping it?…Philip Rivers is now 20-1 during December throughout his career.

I’m not having an especially good year against the spread, so please don’t take this as bragging, but I somehow was 11-0 ATS after the early games Sunday and finished 14-2 overall. I knew I should have put in that 11-team parlay! Seriously, I doubt I’ll accomplish something so meaningful in life ever again. It’s all downhill from here.

Impressive performance by Matt Cassel toughing it out Sunday…Seeing Jamaal Charles get caught from behind during his 80-yard run was one of the more surprising plays of Week 15…Assuming the Seahawks lose in Tampa Bay, the 49ers/Rams matchup is essentially a playoff game. Surprising to see St. Louis favored by fewer than three points at home.

John Skelton has been awful, but at least he’s made Larry Fitzgerald relevant again…Although he lost yet another fumble (his fourth of the season in fewer than 150 carries), Jonathan Stewart topped 130 rushing yards for the second consecutive game last week, and he’s averaged 5.9 YPC over the past four contests. Unfortunately, in Week 16 he faces a Steelers’ front seven that has allowed 3.0 YPC and five rushing scores on the year – both league-lows. In fact, Pittsburgh has ceded just one carry for 20-plus yards all season long, and the second stingiest run defense in football (the 49ers) has allowed a full half-yard more per carry. Stewart owners should look elsewhere during the fantasy super bowl…I’d make the over/under for offensive touchdowns scored for Carolina this week 0.5, and I’d take the under.

After throwing for 242 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 130 yards and another score, most of Michael Vick’s fantasy owners are likely still playing in Week 16. Put differently, that’s equivalent to throwing for 240 yards and eight touchdowns in a single game. If you prorate Vick’s numbers from the 10 games he’s finished this year, he produces a season’s pace of 4,330 passing yards, 32 passing TDs, 954 rushing yards and 13 rushing scores. That’s essentially the same as a non-running QB throwing for 6,238 yards and 52 touchdowns. I’m never one to take a quarterback within the first five rounds, and Vick offers plenty of risk with his style of play, but I really couldn’t fault anyone for making him the No. 1 overall pick in 2011 drafts…Like clockwork, Andy Reid once again botched a challenge Sunday in spectacular fashion…That was easily one of the craziest games I’ve ever seen in my life. Twenty-eight points scored in the final 7:30 minutes?! Unbelievable. As a result, the odds are now against the Giants making the playoffs…DeSean Jackson’s punt return was the first in NFL history to win a game as time expired.

It was a fun ride while it lasted, Buccaneers…Apparently, the Lions have the deepest QB group in all of football…Despite getting just 285 snaps (44th in the league among running backs), LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL with 45 missed tackles. That’s impressive stuff.

It’s a small sample to be sure, but Colt McCoy’s rookie season can’t be overlooked. He’s gotten 8.0 YPA with a 65.8 completion percentage despite having possibly the worst receiving corps in the NFL. Durability remains a concern, but McCoy absolutely looks like a potential franchise quarterback…Before injuring his knee a few weeks back, Terrell Owens clearly proved he has plenty left in the tank, even at age 37, but he also already wore out his welcome in Cincinnati, despite being so productive. Should be interesting to see which (if any) team takes a chance on him in 2011.

For Buffalo fans who were furious when the team passed on line help during the draft to take a running back, I can only imagine their frustrations now after the season C.J. Spiller has had…It’s pretty incredible Miami is 1-6 at home and 6-1 on the road this season. Also, they have somehow alternated wins and losses in every game since Week 4. But something’s got to give Sunday, as they are playing at home coming off a loss.

Making his first start since 2008, Rex Grossman threw for 322 yards and four touchdowns against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and Grossman also committed three turnovers and produced most of his stats while coming back from a 20-point deficit, so it all needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Still, he produced 30 points, which is a season-high for Washington and more points than the team has scored against the Cowboys during their last four meetings combined. Donovan McNabb is done in Washington, and while the team is certain to select a QB in the upcoming draft, Grossman is going to get a trial run, and he’s always had a backer in offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. With Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Ryan Torain and an emerging Anthony Armstrong combined with an awful defense, Grossman is actually in a pretty good situation to put up stats. He’s a sneaky fantasy option in Week 16 against a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed an NFL-high 8.4 YPA this season…Miles Austin has averaged 6.6 catches and 97.2 receiving yards with Tony Romo at QB and just 3.1 catches and 42.0 receiving yards with Jon Kitna under center. Austin deserves some blame being among the league-leaders in drops this season, and his lack of production has been especially discouraging considering the team has averaged 32.2 points over six games since Jason Garrett took over as head coach. Austin will be a buy-low target at drafts next season coming off a disappointing campaign and with Romo back, but realize it’s possible he takes a backseat to the ultra talented Dez Bryant in the passing game.

Making his first appearance since Week 11, Austin Collie had already racked up eight catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns in the first half Sunday before leaving with yet another concussion. This is turning into a scary and sad situation, as it’s the third time since November he has departed a game with concussion symptoms. His season is almost certainly over, and at this point, it’s safe to question his career as well. It’s a shame, as Collie had scored eight touchdowns over the seven games he was able to finish this year, which is a season’s pace of 18 scores…Who would have thought Donald Brown would have 83 more rushing yards than Maurice Jones-Drew in their matchup last week…It sure looked like Mike Thomas called for a fair catch before he returned a punt 78 yards for a touchdown.

While hardly a bust, Ray Rice has failed to live up to his preseason ADP, but he made it up to owners who were still alive in Week 15, when he totaled 233 yards and two touchdowns. It marked just the second game he’s reached 90 rushing yards this season, as his YPC has dropped from 5.3 last year to 4.0 in 2010. He’s racked up 417 receiving yards over the past seven games – a season’s pace of 953 yards. Rice doesn’t possess the scoring upside of other backs in the league, but like Brian Westbrook before him, he’s certainly capable of reaching the end zone 8-12 times in a given year. He’ll be someone to target late in the first round at 2011 draft tables…Drew Brees is having another strong year, on pace to finish with a career-high 35 touchdown passes, but he’s also been picked off in 10 consecutive games…Over the last seven games, Anquan Boldin has averaged just 3.1 receptions and 42.1 yards with only two touchdowns over that span. He’s been held to 50 yards or fewer in six of those seven contests despite Joe Flacco emerging as one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Boldin is now 30 years old and has taken a lot of physical punishment throughout his career, and his days as an elite fantasy option appear to be finished.

Not an ideal time for Arian Foster to rush for a season-low 15 yards in Week 15. Any fantasy owner who survived it should be rewarded in the fantasy championship, when Foster faces a Denver defense that has allowed the most points to running backs this season, assuming he’s healthy of course. Just in case, Derrick Ward is a must-add in all leagues…Seriously, what’s the deal with Randy Moss? Can he really be this bad at this stage of his career?

Matt Hasselbeck somehow managed just 71 passing yards with three turnovers and zero touchdowns at home against an Atlanta secondary that ranks in the bottom half of the league, posting an anemic 28.9 QB rating despite getting his full receiving corps back. He’s committed a whopping 13 turnovers over the past four games, and since Hasselbeck has posted a 6.8 YPA mark or lower in four of the past five seasons, the 35-year-old’s days as a starter appear to be coming to an end…Matt Ryan continues to defy the odds, somehow throwing 25 touchdowns despite a 6.5 YPA mark. That said, he actually leads the NFL in win probability added (4.43 WPA), so he’s been clutch. Atlanta is doing an excellent job of revealing just how important winning the turnover battle is.

A great bounce back victory for the Jets, but the Steelers are still in the driver’s seat for the AFC North, needing only to beat the Panthers and Browns over the final two games to win the division…Mark Sanchez didn’t play great, but he did well protecting the football, and that naked bootleg TD run on fourth down legitimately faked me out. One of the best I’ve ever seen.

Tim Tebow’s first NFL start was mixed, as his 40-yard touchdown run and 33-yard TD pass to Brandon Lloyd were both impressive, but he also completed just 50.0 percent of his passes while implementing one of the most scaled back game plans you’ll ever see. Of course, the conservative attack should come as no surprise for a rookie QB making his first career start, especially for a passer as raw as Tebow. He’s clearly got a long ways to go, but any quarterback with his rushing potential is noteworthy in fantasy leagues. With Tebow’s dominance at the goal line, 15 rushing scores isn’t out of the question if he became a full-time starter down the road…With a win in Week 17, Oakland could become the first team in NFL history to go undefeated in its division and not make the playoffs…The Raiders scored 98 points against the Broncos this year, which is the most ever against a single opponent since the merger…Knowshon Moreno left Sunday’s game after gaining just five rushing yards with a rib injury, which is too bad since he had totaled 682 yards with four touchdowns over the previous five games. As one of the few backs in football who dominates his team’s carries, including at the goal line, and is also plenty active as a receiver, he offers a ton of fantasy potential, even if he’s not a special running back, but it’s safe to say Moreno is an injury risk at this point.

Matt Flynn proved what a difference a week’s worth of starter snaps in practice can be. Also, Green Bay’s system is pretty good…Week 16’s matchup between the Giants and Packers should be one of the best of the regular season. Either team is absolutely capable of winning the NFC, yet the loser likely won’t even make the playoffs…Surprisingly, Wes Welker has the third most drops in the NFL this season (only Steve Johnson and Mike Williams have more)…Yes, Dan Connolly’s 71-yard kick return was absolutely one of the coolest plays of the year.

Adrian Peterson has produced a fine season and has been worthy of a top fantasy selection despite his team crumbling around him, but his surprise inactive was crushing, considering it came on a Monday night and during a crucial Week 15. He also managed just 26 total yards the week before, so Peterson’s collapse couldn’t have come at a worse time…With those weather conditions and defenses in battle, it was quite surprising to see the Bears and Vikings combine for 54 points. That’s 21 more than the over/under…What a crazy turn of events for fantasy owners who started Peterson or Joe Webb on Monday night. And while I would use Webb as a WR3 in Week 16, you better have a backup plan, because it’s bad news the team once again plays a night game. We’ve been here before with Brett Favre, so don’t be surprised if he plays no matter how bleak his outlook appears.

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By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 6-10, bringing my season record to 100-104-4. I lost my best bet, so I’m 9-5 there. It was salt in the wound during a week in which I also lost in my home fantasy league, thanks to facing a team that has Michael Turner, Darren McFadden and Pittsburgh defense, and I also lost in Yahoo Friends & Family despite having the most overall points for the year. Another league with a $100 buy in I went to sleep with a 1.5 point lead Monday night, only to wake up to find I lost by 0.5 points thanks to some scoring change. Good times. As for ATS, I’ve actually been on fire with teasers, but I’m embarrassed with my performance here this season. After being 27 games over .500 during my first two years picking every game, I’m now five games under .500 over 2009 and this year. Onto the Week 15 picks:

49ers +9 at CHARGERS

BILLS +5.5 at Dolphins

Browns +1.5 at BENGALS

LIONS +6 at Buccaneers

Jaguars +5 at COLTS

Cardinals +2.5 at PANTHERS

Saints +1 at RAVENS (Best Bet)

EAGLES +3 at Giants

CHIEFS +1 at Rams

REDSKINS +6 at Cowboys

Texans +1.5 at TITANS

Falcons -7 at SEAHAWKS

JETS +6 at Steelers

BRONCOS +6.5 at Raiders

PACKERS +11 at Patriots

BEARS -3 at Vikings

Comments: I was close to making the Panthers my best bet but just couldn’t stomach it. The Eagles/Giants game was the one I had the toughest time with, and I also switched to the Redskins at the last second. No clue why the Ravens are giving fewer than the standard three points.

By Dalton Del Don

Normally I use this space to bash the Thursday night announcing crew, but I’d like to thank them for informing me that the first country song Kerry Collins wrote was titled “Momma’s fried chicken”…Kenny Britt managed just four catches for 39 yards during his return to the lineup, although it’s worth noting it was his first action since Week 7. He started and played a full complement of snaps, and it’s clear he’s back as Tennessee’s No. 1 wide receiver. Britt had scored seven touchdowns over five games before suffering the strained hamstring, as the sophomore wideout was enjoying a breakout season. At home facing a Houston defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, Britt can be started with confidence in Week 15…What a ridiculous backdoor cover by the Titans. Unreal. I’d hate to be Jeff Fisher’s bookie…The 37 drops by Colts receivers this year are the most in the NFL.

What a horrible time for Mike Williams to have his worst game of the season. Still, fantasy owners should keep him going at home against the Lions in Week 15…Making his first appearance since Week 8, Ryan Torain had 24 carries for 172 rushing yards Sunday, including a remarkable 121 yards on the ground in the first quarter. Keiland Williams was the only other Redskins back to get a rushing attempt, receiving just four totes on the day, as Torain has clearly retaken the team’s featured role. He’s reached 100 yards rushing in each of the past three contests he’s been able to finish, averaging an impressive 4.9 YPC on the year. Torain is a viable RB2 option for fantasy leaguers down the stretch…Those in deep leagues desperate for a WR sleeper in Week 15, look no further than Anthony Armstrong. Before last week’s disappointing performance, he averaged 73.2 yards over the previous five games and gets a matchup in Week 15 against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL this season by a wide margin.

That’s eight fumbles for Peyton Hillis now, easily the most in the league among running backs…Lee Evans was lost for the season with a high-ankle sprain, ending yet another disappointing campaign for the once promising wide receiver. Evans will enter 2011 taking a backseat to teammate Steve Johnson, and he’s now become an afterthought in fantasy leagues.

Aaron Rodgers managed just 4.2 YPA with no touchdowns and a pick against a porous Detroit secondary before departing with a concussion, so fantasy owners have to feel cheated. It was his second concussion suffered this season, so Rodgers’ status for Week 15 is in question, and the answer may not be revealed until Sunday night, with the Packers/Patriots matchup being in primetime…Greg Jennings certainly didn’t help, as he dropped a sure 80-yard touchdown and turned it into an interception…Needing just three feet toward the end of the game, it was curious to see Green Bay throw a deep ball into the end zone on 4th and 1.

Darren McFadden totaled 209 yards and three touchdowns on just 19 touches Sunday, helping many fantasy teams move onto Week 15 in the process. He’s missed two games this season due to injury and totaled just 16 rushing yards over Weeks 11 and 12, but he’s still on pace to finish the year with 1,760 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns. McFadden is tied for second in the NFL with 3.4 YPC after contact, and few runs in the league this season have been as impressive as this. Fantasy owners have to be salivating at the thought of him going against a Broncos team that has been gashed for the second most fantasy points to running backs this season in Week 15…David Garrard’s TD pass to Jason Hill was the throw of the day…Maurice Jones-Drew should have taken a knee at the 1 yard line at the end of his 30-yard touchdown run with 1:34 left, but he has himself on all his fantasy teams, so he knows better, especially during the first week of the playoffs.

Despite Cincinnati’s defense keeping the Steelers out of the end zone all game long, the Bengals still lost 23-7 in Week 14, thanks mostly to two costly pick-sixes by Carson Palmer. He managed just 5.6 YPA and tossed three interceptions in all, as his nightmare season continued. Palmer’s 18 picks are the second most in the league, and his 6.4 YPA mark is a career-low. The two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns were simply inexcusable…According to Pro Football Focus, the Steelers have the worst pass blocking and the worst run blocking in the AFC. They also have been the most penalized team and have the second worst special teams in the conference…Pittsburgh spiked the ball on 1st and goal with 34 seconds left in the first half and a timeout remaining. Of course, they then kicked a field goal with 21 seconds left. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

Dan Marino has the most wins ever (33) by a quarterback over their first three seasons in the league, but Matt Ryan currently has 31 wins and counting…Jonathan Stewart is a borderline RB1 in Week 15 at home against the Cardinals, but he’s already lost three fumbles this year on just 120 carries…A new nominee for worst announcing moment of 2010 – “Matt Ryan can just walk into the end zone” right before he gets clobbered short of the goal line.

Alex Smith completed 17-of-27 passes for 255 yards and a 3:0 TD:INT ratio during the 49ers’ win Sunday, finishing with a 130.9 QB rating. Smith was starting for the first time since Week 7, and his performance made coach Mike Singletary’s decision to go back to him look brilliant. Smith has gotten 7.9 YPA with nine touchdowns over four home games this season, but he has a tough matchup Week 15 in San Diego against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season…With three kick return touchdowns already this season, it’s hard to figure how Leon Washington has been given only 24 rushing attempts.

Making his first appearance since Week 3, Pierre Thomas led the Saints with 12 carries Sunday, although that resulted in a modest 39 rushing yards. He added four catches for 29 receiving yards as well, and Chris Ivory was limited in practice this week with a hamstring injury. If Ivory misses any game action, Thomas would once again become a viable fantasy option, although a Week 15 matchup against a Ravens defense that has allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to running backs this season is hardly enticing…As funny as it sounds, the Chiefs/Rams matchup is basically a playoff game.

Deion Branch hauled in eight catches for 151 yards against a Bears defense that entered having allowed an NFL-low 6.2 YPA and just nine passing TDs on the year. Over the past three games, Branch has racked up 328 receiving yards and four touchdowns. If you prorate his stats since joining New England over a full season, he’s on pace to finish with 78 receptions, 1,152 yards and nine scores. Branch hadn’t reached 750 receiving yards or scored five touchdowns in a season since leaving New England in 2005, but at age 31, he’s clearly not washed up. All he needed was Tom Brady as his quarterback again…Since 2001, when the Patriots have a plus turnover differential, they are 80-3. (h/t Ken Tremendous)…New England is now 11-0 under Bill Belichick in the snow, and during their last three such games, the team has outscored its opponents 109-0 during the first half…New England has now gone five straight games without a turnover, setting an NFL record.

Tim Hightower ran for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries against the Broncos last week, and it’s clear he’s the RB to own in Arizona’s backfield. Hightower has averaged 5.2 YPC this season, and Beanie Wells hasn’t received more than eight touches in a game since Week 8. In a matchup against a Carolina defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to running backs this season, Hightower is a fine start in Week 15…Arizona scored as many points in Week 14 as they did during its previous four games combined…Jay Feely’s fantasy performance was one for the record books…Over the past two games, Kyle Orton has completed just 40.6 percent of his passes while getting a paltry 4.1 YPA with zero touchdowns and four turnovers. Week 14’s performance was especially galling, as his 27.1 QB rating came against a middling Arizona secondary in perfect weather conditions. Orton has enjoyed a fine season – easily the best of his career – but he’s slumping at the worst possible time for fantasy owners, and he’s a risky proposition down the stretch.

Mark Sanchez completed just 17-of-44 passes at home against the Dolphins in Week 14, getting only 4.9 YPA, and he’s lucky just one of his four fumbles was lost. Sanchez has committed six turnovers over the past three games after not committing one over the first five games of the year. In fact, he’s been intercepted at least once in eight consecutive contests. While the Jets’ receivers have done him no favors, dropping 35 passes, which is the second most in football this year, Sanchez’s 53.3 completion percentage is the lowest in the AFC. He’s really regressed of late, but it’s obviously too soon to give up on the sophomore signal caller…While Kareem McKenzie has been fantastic, Jake Long is the best offensive tackle in all of football…What an indefensible drop in the end zone by Santonio Holmes. Pathetic.

Brodie Croyle is now 0-10 as a starter throughout his career…Ryan Mathews gained 65 rushing yards on 16 carries Sunday during his first action since Week 9, also hitting paydirt. Mike Tolbert received the same amount of rushing attempts, and while he’s a better bet to score each week as the team’s goal-line back, don’t be surprised if the rookie starts getting the majority of the carries from here on out. As nearly double-digit favorites at home against the 49ers on Thursday night, the Chargers should be playing with the lead mostly, resulting in plenty of carries to go around…With Antonio Gates highly questionable and Malcom Floyd also banged up, Vincent Jackson deserves an upgrade…During Weeks 6-12, Dwayne Bowe recorded 49 catches for 733 yards and 13 touchdowns. Over his other six games this year, he’s totaled 10 catches for 155 yards and one touchdown. There hasn’t been a bigger boom-or-bust player in football.

A favorite for the craziest stat of the 2010 season: LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 709 yards after the catch. He has 538 receiving yards on the year…Michael Vick has gotten 9.3 YPA with a 17:3 TD:turnover ratio over five games on the road this season…To me, the Tashard Choice asking Vick for an autograph issue is much ado about nothing.

If that wasn’t a safety on Tavaris Jackson, then I don’t know what one is…Returning to action after a two-game absence, Hakeem Nicks racked up seven catches for 96 yards Monday night. Nicks’ 81.5 receiving yards per game this season rank as the fifth most in the NFL, and his nine TD receptions are also tied for the fifth most in football, despite playing in just 11 games. With Steve Smith out for the season, and Mario Manningham also hobbled, Nicks is going to be targeted heavily, returning him to elite status in fantasy leagues. The Giants could be in a shootout against the Eagles in Week 15, although the likely return of Asante Samuel isn’t ideal…Brett Favre’s purple hand was pretty gross. Joe Webb, who might get the start under center in Week 15, presents an interesting fantasy option, as he’s eligible at WR in Yahoo leagues.

While Monday night’s game was thrilling, the Ravens showed exactly how not to play with a big lead. What kind of defense was that? Matt Schaub, who’s the only quarterback in the league yet to commit a penalty this season, was somehow sacked just twice despite dropping back (mostly in obvious passing downs) a whopping 63 times…Anquan Boldin has reached 70 yards receiving just twice over the past nine games, and after entering the year as the all-time leader in receiving yards per game, he’s dropped to third on the leaderboard (Andre Johnson is currently first with 79.9 Y/G).

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