RotoScoop.com

By Dalton Del Don

I understand the “take best player available” theory, I really do. It’s just that I disagree with it in St. Louis’ case this year. Now, before I continue, my argument assumes Bradford’s shoulder has been fully cleared by Dr. James Andrews and will soon be 100 percent. But if so, I really don’t see an argument the other way here. I mean, it’s simple: quarterback is the single most important position in all of sports. And it’s not even close.

Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy certainly look like sure things, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s true. I mean, McCoy only put up 225 lbs 23 times! And the leaning opinion right now has him slightly above Suh, who had more than a third of his sacks last year come in one game. But in all seriousness, I’m not here to criticize either defensive tackle. Each look nearly certain to have bright careers in the pros. But so what? Let’s say one becomes the greatest DT in the history of the NFL – I’d still rather a top-12 current QB in the league than that. There’s a reason the franchise tag for defensive tackles right now is $7,003,000 (only tight end, safety and kickers are lower) compared to quarterbacks’ $16,405,000. I guess ideally St. Louis would be drafting third this year, so they would spend a little less and wouldn’t be worried about being criticized for “reaching,” but is that any better than making a player yet to take a snap in the league the highest paid defensive tackle in the NFL?

I actually don’t watch much college football and have no opinion of Bradford. I’m totally agnostic. However, if there’s a chance he can truly be a franchise quarterback, which clearly seems to be the case (since this is such a crapshoot, the end result is actually beside the point I’m trying to make), then the Rams’ decision is easy. After all, either defensive tackle could be a bust too, or even if they turn out to be a very solid, maybe even Pro Bowl caliber talent, that still doesn’t change the fact St. Louis will be a below average football team until the QB position is upgraded by a wide margin. Maybe that’s possible through free agency (pretty rare), but this is a team that hasn’t drafted a QB in round one since 1967 – and it shows, as there might not be a franchise with a worse outlook at the NFL’s most important position.

The Rams should draft Bradford and not even think twice about it.

By Dalton Del Don

Immediately after the Championship games, I was convinced I was backing Indy in the Super Bowl. Of course, it’s never smart to overly rely on the last game played, and considering the Saints are a No. 1 seed that had the far better point differential throughout the season, I assumed the spread would be around three points and certainly not approaching seven like it has been. Plenty of Colts games this season were close, and five-six points is quite a bit to be laying against a team that has a legitimate argument as the best in the NFL, especially on a neutral field. This is essentially saying Indy would be favored by nine points if they were at home, which is pretty crazy. Moreover, the Colts beat the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds at home to get into the Super Bowl, while New Orleans annihilated a good Cardinals squad before beating a Vikings team that could also easily be viewed as the best in football, even if the Saints were lucky in doing so. Dwight Freeney’s injury is obviously a big concern (although conversely, the lack of a pure pass rusher may actually hurt the Saints’ screen game, an area in which they excel), and there’s a 30 percent chance of precipitation, which would probably help the underdogs. Another injury that seems to be underrated is the one to talented young DB Jerraud Powers, who is questionable with a foot problem that kept him out of the AFC Championship game. Secondary depth will sure mean a whole lot more against the Saints than it did versus the Ravens and Jets.

Delving into the Xs and Os, it’s fairly simple; both teams have mediocre run defenses, underrated secondaries and strong passing attacks, although the Saints’ ground game is noticeably better. And then there’s Peyton Manning, who is probably the best football player ever. Drew Brees had a terrific season with gaudy stats, but so did Philip Rivers. And Tony Romo. Manning is simply in a class by himself and is currently the most important player in sports. When Brees played outdoors this year, his numbers took a precipitous drop (7.7 YPA, 9:5 TD:INT ratio compared to 9.0 YPA, 25:6 TD:INT indoors), whereas Manning’s YPA actually increased from 7.5 indoors to 8.2 outdoors; it might not mean much, but it’s something to think about. While Manning was picked off 16 times this season (the most since 2002), and New Orleans’ 26 interceptions were the third-most in the NFL in 2009, with two weeks to prepare and on the biggest stage possible, I just don’t see this remaining a team strength for the Saints. Moreover, New Orleans loves to blitz, which is suicide against Manning, and the vaunted Saints’ passing game faces an Indy secondary that allowed just 6.2 YPA this season – the third-lowest in the league. Put simply, the matchup doesn’t exactly favor New Orleans.

Right now it’s clear the public is all over the Colts, and the sharps are supposedly backing the Saints, but in my opinion, this means far less in the playoffs, especially the Super Bowl (Vegas takes advantage of these situations over big samples, plus they could easily lose ATS yet kill on the O/U, which appears to have a bunch of action on the “sucker side” – the over). My early Indy convictions have definitely been tested over the past 10 days, and this is a game I’d recommend staying away from if not for it being the Super Bowl (of course you have to bet!). Five-six points is quite a lot in a seemingly even matchup, and even a straight MLB on New Orleans makes sense, but I’m backing the Colts to cover Sunday, and it’s pretty much because of one single player.

I know it’s baseball time, and I’ll have multiple “The Scoops” up this week, along with a different type of article (be on the lookout!) later Monday as well, but until then, here’s a fantasy football mock draft I was just in for you all to chew on in the meantime.

By Dalton Del Don

For those who took the over in the Jets/Colts game Sunday, what a difference a quarter makes. The game was scoreless at the end of the first quarter, yet the teams had totaled 30 points at halftime…What an effort by New York. Ironically, the last person to blame for the loss was Mark Sanchez, as the defense gave up its most yards in a game all season, and the team’s rushing attack was actually far less effective than Indy’s. The Jets didn’t win a single game (0-6) when allowing more than 17 points this season…I was waiting for Brad Smith to throw from that formation. Yes, the ball was (pretty badly) underthrown, but when you have a receiver that open, and you’re attempting the first pass of your NFL career, far better to underthrow than overthrow. And the team scored on the drive anyway…Sanchez’s elusiveness is underrated. And for a QB with (much) worse stats over his first 15 NFL starts than JaMarcus Russell, I’m beginning to think Sanchez will ultimately have the better career…Rex Ryan absolutely was right being pissed for the no-call when Sanchez was destroyed after a handoff. Like he said, if that happened to Peyton Manning, he would have probably been escorted out of the building. Speaking of Ryan, I love how he completely gave the Colts credit after the game, essentially saying this team is the best he’s faced and New York has a long ways to go to be in their class. He’s cocky, but Ryan’s not stupid…What was up with the Jets being so conservative in the second half?…For the most part, running back is the most overrated position in the NFL, but there’s no doubting Shonn Greene’s injury was a big deal. Thomas Jones, who is probably more injured than we have been let on, was a pretty obvious downgrade. And as for the Colts, you won’t find someone who’s been more critical of Joseph Addai than me in the past (and as a result, I lost out on an excellent value in fantasy leagues in 2009), and I was the first one making the “Addai is in the locker room dealing with a bad case of PMS” jokes when he left the field Sunday. But you know what, the guy returned and played a great game, hitting holes hard, blocking well (as always), and it’s so apparent Addai is a superior player to Donald Brown right now. And I guarantee Peyton Manning agrees. Addai did lose a fumble, but that came on a jail break when the defender hit him immediately, and ball security in general is another point in his favor (he’s fumbled just two times over his past 635 carries since his rookie season. Put differently, he’s the anti-Adrian Peterson)…Is there a luckier person in all of sports than Jim Caldwell?…I get the fact Indy rested its players over the final 1.5 games didn’t adversely affect their performance in the postseason, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t have been cool to see a team go 19-0…Do you realize that during the coin toss, the referee said, ‘‘The New York Giants call tails.’’ I tell ya, the Jets get no respect. (My favorite Rodney Dangerfield joke: “I saved a woman from getting attacked today. Yeah I changed my mind.”)…At this point, the only relevancy Anthony Gonzalez has in 2010 is how much will he hurt Pierre Garcon’s budding star status?…Catching is a pretty important part of being a receiver, I’d say, but other than spotty (terrible?) hands, Braylon Edwards is a very good WR, consistently getting separation from DBs. As a result, he improved the Jets’ running game, and few wideouts in the history of the league are good enough to catch 80-yard touchdowns in Championship games…With Manning an obvious no-show, this year’s Pro Bowl will apparently make past efforts seem like a playoff atmosphere. Vince Young? David Garrard? As far as Miami goes, I’m more interested in Burger King starting to serve beer there than that game…Saying Peyton Manning was fantastic Sunday doesn’t do him justice. You see, sometimes when players reach a status such as him, greatness is expected, and the only time his play is really worth noting is when he fails. I rarely get historical (or sappy), but we are all lucky as hell right now – we are watching the Michael Jordan of the NFL in his prime. He made the Jets’ defense, quite possibly the best unit of this decade, (h/t Mike Salfino), look feeble Sunday, posting 30 points over the final three quarters, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 9.7 YPA with a 3:0 TD:INT ratio, making guys named Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon look like stars on the biggest stage of the biggest sport in America.

It wasn’t the smoothest game ever, but the NFC Championship was still memorable and close to a classic, with fumbles being the overriding story (which is the worst kind, since they are the most random part of football). Of course, New Orleans deserves credit for doing a terrific job of hitting the ball out of the Vikings’ hands, but Percy Harvin and especially Adrian Peterson were bordering on pathetic…Sean Payton still underused Pierre Thomas, but it’s fairly clear what the coach really thinks of Mike Bell after two postseason games…Pretty crazy (funny?) that both Brett Favre’s final passes as a Packer and in an NFL uniform were intercepted (assuming he retires, which of course, remains to be seen. Naturally). I’m hardly going to kill Favre though. He dealt with horrible conditions Sunday and was constantly under duress, and as bad as his last pass was, he played well enough for Minny to win, and despite the three turnovers in the box score (his one fumble was clearly Peterson’s fault), it’s hard not to say the Vikings didn’t outplay the Saints (475 yards to 257. 5.8 YPP vs. 4.7)…How many fumbles would it take for it to truly affect Peterson’s playing time? I mean, this has past become an epidemic, but really, this isn’t Steve Slaton we are talking about. Could AP put the ball on the carpet another 8-10 times next season without consequence? Probably, right?…One of my favorite parts of Sunday’s contest was the shot of Bourbon Street about 25 minutes before the game ended and then the subsequent view right after it was finished. It wouldn’t be a bad time to be in New Orleans right now…An absolutely crazy stat from Scott Pianowski entering this week: Since 1970, there have been 78 Championship games, and when the line is fewer than 10 points, the team winning the game was a perfect 65-0-2 ATS. So of course, the Vikings lose yet cover Sunday…I criticized Joe Buck and Troy Aikman enough live, so I’m saving my breath (and words) here, but let’s just say I don’t quite agree with Fox’s assessment that Buck should be announcing such important athletic events…Last week word broke that the spread would be Colts -3 if they were matched up with the Saints in the Super Bowl, but unsurprisingly, the line opened at -4.5 or -5 Sunday night. For the most part, taking the dog in Super Bowls has been highly favorable over the past decade, and this is the rare instance of two No. 1 seeds meeting up. It certainly appears like it should be a great game on paper, but for some reason, I see the Colts rolling. Maybe New Orleans covers, but Indy is the best team this year, and I fully expect them to show that in Super Bowl XLIV (I think that means 45).

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 2-2, making me 3-5 during the postseason. Here’s my outlook for the Championship games:

Jets +8 at COLTS (Best Bet)

VIKINGS +3.5 at Saints

Comments: The Jets are no fluke, and turnovers could be the great equalizer, but this is a tough matchup for New York. Not getting down early could be imperative, or it could turn into a laugher in the second half. Of course, an upset wouldn’t truly shock, either. The Colts can defend the run pretty well when they focus on doing so. I don’t feel good at all backing the Vikings, who are probably the public side after they just undressed America’s team in the spotlight last week, but the dome setting mitigates the road factor, at least somewhat (except for the crowd noise). I’ll take the points, but this is a game I’d stay away from.

By Dalton Del Don

What a performance by the Saints. I would have loved to see how the Packers would have fared (no doubt a much closer contest), but the Cards were also pretty unlucky losing both Antrel Rolle (concussion) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (knee) in the first quarter Saturday…I still like Beanie Wells plenty long-term, but I’ve never seen a running back have more problems with handoffs/pitches than him during his rookie season…”Jeremy Shockey comes up limping.” The only news I heard this weekend less shocking than the rumored Lindsay Lohan sex tape…Might want to keep your head on a swivel after an interception Kurt Warner. What a hit he took…Imagine taking Mike Bell in a fantasy playoff format since the always hurt Pierre Thomas was banged up, only to see the immortal Lynell Hamilton get the goal-line TD instead…What a clean pocket Drew Brees had all game. New Orleans’ offensive line is very good when healthy…Arizona’s tackling was bordering on pathetic this week, but Reggie Bush did look pretty explosive.

Peyton Manning wasn’t exactly sharp Saturday night, but the apparent rust factor by the Colts didn’t come to fruition. The Ravens are not built to be down 17-3 at halftime…As much as any team in the league, Baltimore needs to acquire a playmaker at wide receiver. Brandon Marshall?…In a way, Joseph Addai’s constant injuries are even more frustrating since he’s often able to return to the same game (or a week later with no mention on the injury report). Either this guy is extremely tough, or he’s missing action with maladies most players wouldn’t. My bet is the latter…That said, while I’ll be all over younger, more exciting backs who ended 2010 behind veterans, I’m not sold on Donald Brown. Addai should enter next year well ahead of Brown on fantasy cheat sheets…I’m a John Harbaugh fan for sure, but his decision to punt down 20-3 with eight minutes left Saturday was indefensible. Have we really reached the point where coaches are playing to lose by the least amount of points as possible over giving their team the best chance to win even in the playoffs? I mean, even if they didn’t convert and held Indy to a field goal, it was still a three-score game. Just awful…Since the Colts rested their starters and ultimately helped the Jets reach the postseason, will the verdict end up being “careful what you wish for” with an upcoming matchup against New York? Or did they inadvertently give themselves a far easier opponent in the AFC Championship game (if the Chargers were involved instead, you’d have to think the spread would be three points instead of seven). You certainly can’t dislike this matchup from the Colts’ perspective…If you haven’t read this article about Marvin Harrison, do so immediately. I implore all of you.

The Dallas/Minnesota game was closer than the final score indicated, but I got that game flat-out wrong, no two ways about it. And seriously, what’s up with the kicking in the NFL this season?…Tony Romo didn’t have his best game, and his interception was terrible, but he had no chance against that pass rush. Sunday’s loss was hardly his fault…Sidney Rice is very, very good, and only the uncertain QB situation (will Brett Favre return? At 41, can he remain healthy and effective even if he does come back?) prevents me from ranking him as a top-five fantasy WR in 2010…I understand Dallas couldn’t go downfield with such problems in pass protection, but what happened to all those successful WR screens we’ve seen recently, which would have seemingly been a perfect counter? Jason Garrett got far too cute Sunday…The Cowboys didn’t allow a single rusher to gain 100 yards in a game in 2010…I’m beginning to think Roy Williams is overpaid…Favre posted a 25:2 TD:INT ratio over nine games at home this season…Marion Barber may return with more explosion back to 100 percent next year and remains the top goal-line option, and Felix Jones is definitely an injury risk (so is Barber), but there’s no way Jones can’t be ranked ahead of Barber in fantasy leagues, right? Is it even close? I say no…What about Joe Buck repeatedly talking about how the Vikings declined a penalty on themselves? I never knew you could do that. After Brian Sabean (who has every one beat by a mile), I’d probably say Buck is my second least favorite person in the world.

No team chokes like the Chargers in the playoffs (specifically, Nate Kaeding and Norv Turner). Admittedly, the Jets were an awful matchup for the pass first team, but still, what a debacle. I can understand why Darrelle Revis wasn’t shadowing Vincent Jackson (so Philip Rivers didn’t have an obvious first read always, and obviously Antonio Gates is a huge weapon as well), and none of Jackson’s catches came with Revis on him. What an interception by the best player who isn’t a quarterback in the NFL…Rex Ryan is my favorite coach/manager in all of sports, and I’m happy for him…That said, with 55 seconds left in the first half at the Chargers’ 45-yard line, why did the Jets spike the ball? You’re telling me 5-10 seconds is more important than a down at that point?…Vincent Jackson kicking the challenge flag was incredibly stupid, but I agree with Phil Simms – is a penalty really necessary at that time? I mean, who cares if he kicked a challenge flag? The winner of this game is playing in the AFC Championship!…Question San Diego’s decision to go for an onside kick at the end of the game all you want (and in hindsight it looks worse because on 4th-and-1 from their own 30, the Jets are punting no matter what instead of going for it), but one thing is indisputable – it was a fantastic kick…Speaking of Norv Turner (I probably would have gone for the onside kick, to be fair), this guy has no clue. Please give LaDainian Tomlinson 15 touches compared to just six to Darren Sproles. After all, pleasing veterans who used to be good should definitely take precedence over making the AFC title game. Congratulations Norv, you were blessed with an awful AFC West division and one of the three best players in football, but after that, what is there? And I’d love to know what this guy got on his SATs. With 2:07 left Sunday, he decided to wait until after the two-minute warning to use his last timeout. This would be defensible with something like two-three seconds left beforehand, because then that opens up the opponents’ playbook (they can pass), but this wasn’t that case. Pathetic. Especially since Ryan and the Jets went for it on 4th-and-1 later on to seal the victory, I took pleasure in watching stupidity ultimately lose…I get that just because I think a RB is better than the veteran behind him doesn’t mean the playing time will be dispersed as such, but considering Thomas Jones’ mileage, what’s happened down the final stretch, New York’s ridiculously good defense, offensive line and run-first philosophy, I’m going to be drafting Shonn Greene aggressively in 2010. It would be nice if he were more of an option as a receiver (his catch Sunday was the first of his career), but I’ll have him ranked as a top-15 fantasy back next year.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 1-3 to open the playoffs, making it a particularly bad time to happen to be in Reno. The Green Bay loss will be felt for some time. Here are my divisional picks, and beware, I actually feel pretty confident about them:

CARDINALS +7 at Saints

Ravens +6.5 at COLTS

COWBOYS (Best Bet) +2.5 at Vikings

JETS +7.5 at Chargers

Comments: The over/under in the N.O./Zona game is 57. 57! So I suppose seven points means less, and the Cardinals have been pretty hit-or-miss all season, but then again, it’s not like the Saints can be trusted right now. Take the points and don’t be surprised if Arizona wins outright… Indy is hardly in an ideal situation having not played a meaningful game in a full calendar month, and the team is 0-3 historically during their first game after a first-round bye in the postseason. Baltimore is also dangerous, and Peyton Manning has run into problems against the 3-4 in the past. Still, a dome environment on short rest is also hardly ideal for a run-first team like the Ravens, and Joe Flacco is clearly playing hurt. Remember, this is a Colts team that would almost certainly be riding a 25-game regular-season winning streak if it wanted to… Minnesota has been the toughest venue in which to win this season for opponents, but Dallas enters playing the best football in the NFL. They surely would have preferred a matchup against the Saints, and it should be a highly competitive game Sunday, with the winner the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Ultimately, expect the Cowboys to prevail – it’s the rare game in which they actually have a coaching advantage, and this defense might be the most underrated unit in the league… San Diego is rightfully the (heavy) favorite, but New York was the No. 2 team defending tight ends this season, and obviously Darrelle Revis will shut down Vincent Jackson on Sunday, so while I still expect SD to win, how are the Chargers, with no running game, going to score a bunch of points? Expect a relatively close game this week, especially since San Diego’s defense is hardly elite.

By Dalton Del Don

Funny, I backed the Jets ATS more than any team in the league this season and consistently proclaimed the Bengals would be “one-and-done” in the playoffs, yet picked Cincy last week. I’m an idiot…Leon Washington will enter the picture, but for 2010 fantasy drafts, I guarantee I’d draft Shonn Greene ahead of Thomas Jones…Where did that come from, Dustin Keller?…Seriously, how bad are Braylon Edwards’ hands?…What happened to Carson Palmer? His 21:13 TD:INT ratio (with three rushing scores) wasn’t bad this season on a run-first team, but over his last 595 passing attempts over his past two seasons, he’s gotten 6.4 YPA…What a fantastic performance by Jay Feely. Three punts inside the 20? Pretty crazy from a placekicker…Speaking of kicking, I love how Shayne Graham is the Bengals’ “franchise player.” What a choke job…This is ultimately still a passing league, so the Jets are severely hampered, but with such a dominant run game and the best defense in the league, they remain dangerous. New York was the No. 2 team defending tight ends this season, and obviously Darrelle Revis will shut down Vincent Jackson on Sunday, so while I still expect San Diego to win, how are the Chargers, with no running game, going to score a bunch of points? Expect a close game this week…Speaking of Revis, what a travesty he didn’t win Defensive Player of the Year. Charles Woodson had a very good year and was easily the second-most deserving pick and would have been the right choice in many other seasons, but Revis so clearly should have won it in 2009. Aside from quarterbacks, if I were starting a franchise from scratch, he’d be my No. 1 pick. Put it this way, if Revis replaced Woodson last week in Arizona, I guarantee the Packers would still be alive in the playoffs. Revis got screwed worse than Conan O’Brien. But don’t listen to me, Rex Ryan has his own thoughts on the matter.

I’m beginning to think the Cowboys are better than the Eagles. Seriously, the outcome just gets worse each time they face each other. The Vikings were undefeated at home this season and might be the toughest opponent in the NFL when in Minnesota, but gun to head, I’m picking Dallas to win the NFC this year. And I’m done with Marion Barber. He’s dead to me. Felix Jones is a pretty big upgrade anyway…I wouldn’t bump down DeSean Jackson’s ranking too much next fantasy season because of his two terrible games against the Cowboys to end 2009, but it’s also worth noting just how impressive Jeremy Maclin looks. There will be more mouths to feed in Philly’s passing attack in 2010…What happened to Brian Westbrook on Saturday? You simply can’t touch him with a 10-foot pole in fantasy leagues next year…I will say this – a Colts/Cowboys teaser this week might be one of my favorites in a long time. You can thank me later.

Baltimore caught some breaks Sunday, and with no Wes Welker and a clearly injured Randy Moss, the Pats became pretty easy to defend. That said, looking back at their schedule and with so many close losses this season, the Ravens also deserve a ton of credit. This is a very good team. Still, it’s not a great matchup in Indy this week. And Joe Flacco’s health is a big concern as well…What about Laurence Maroney surprisingly getting New England’s first carry of the game, and then not another one the rest of the way? Of course, Kevin Faulk was needed more once the Pats got down early, and the team had to go shotgun heavy. That and Maroney can’t block…Tom Brady entered Sunday with a 23-game home winning streak. Pretty impressive performance by Baltimore. But what the hell was John Harbaugh thinking not challenging that fumbled punt? He says his guys upstairs didn’t get the right view. Umm, no one had it turned on the CBS feed that was available to all of us?…Julian Edelman is pretty good, I must admit…Flacco completed four passes, got 3.4 YPA and finished with a 10.0 QB rating. He’ll need to play a bit better for the Ravens to have a chance in Indy this week.

What a crazy Packers/Cardinals game. Unbelievable play by the quarterbacks, and I loved Mike McCarthy’s willingness to go for it on fourth downs as well as his surprise onside kick…Anquan Boldin has officially lost all leverage. Look for him to be moved during the offseason…Next year, I see no reason why Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t be ranked as the No. 1 QB, Jermichael Finley as the No. 2 tight end and Greg Jennings as a top-10 receiver in fantasy leagues…Anyone who doesn’t consider Kurt Warner a Hall of Famer by now is crazy. I’d be surprised if Arizona doesn’t make it a close game in New Orleans this week…Neil Rackers = shankapotamus…The line opened with the Cards as 2.5-point favorites. By Sunday morning, the Packers were favored by three. I’ve never in my life seen a spread change 5.5 points like that…My pocketbook will be feeling that Rodgers to Jennings would-be touchdown miss in overtime for quite some time.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 9-6-1 to close the regular season, making me 126-125-5 for 2009. Over the last three years, I’m 386-358. My best bet (Titans) pushed last week, leaving me an underwhelming 7-8-2 for the season. We’ll start fresh for the postseason:

Jets +2.5 at Bengals

Eagles +4 at Cowboys

Ravens +3.5 at Patriots

Packers (Best Bet) +1 at Cardinals

Comments: I’ve rode the Jets and faded the Bengals all season long, so naturally, I’m backing Cincy this week. First team to 13 points wins…The Cowboys may just match up too well against this Eagles team, but I’ll stubbornly take the points again. Either team could easily make the Super Bowl, but I expect the Eagles to perform far better than last week’s embarrassment…I don’t get the Joe Flacco hate – I expect him to move the ball plenty against a mediocre New England defense. The loss of Wes Welker is significant, so expect a close game Sunday, although ultimately, the Pats are undefeated at home and should win it…This isn’t a great setup for Green Bay, coming off an easy win just the week before when they showed far more of their hand than Arizona did. They keep having to travel back and forth as well. Still, the Packers have quite a bit of upside, and even if it’s the “sucker” side, I’m backing Green Bay, who ended the season 7-1 over its final eight games.

By Dalton Del Don

Quarterbacks

1. Peyton Manning
2. Philip Rivers
3. Drew Brees
4. Brett Favre
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Tony Romo
7. Tom Brady
8. Donovan McNabb
9. Kurt Warner
10. Joe Flacco
11. Carson Palmer
12. Mark Sanchez

Running Backs

1. Joseph Addai
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Ryan Grant
4. Pierre Thomas
5. Marion Barber
6. LaDainian Tomlinson
7. Cedric Benson
8. Ray Rice
9. Thomas Jones
10. Beanie Wells
11. Reggie Bush
12. Brian Westbrook
13. Felix Jones
14. Darren Sproles
15. Sammy Morris
16. Mike Bell
17. Fred Taylor
18. Willis McGahee
19. Shonn Greene
20. Tim Hightower
21. Donald Brown
22. Laurence Maroney
23. Chester Taylor
24. Leonard Weaver

Wide Receivers

1. Reggie Wayne
2. Vincent Jackson
3. Sidney Rice
4. Miles Austin
5. Marques Colston
6. Randy Moss
7. Greg Jennings
8. Pierre Garcon
9. Robert Meachem
10. Larry Fitzgerald
11. Julian Edelman
12. DeSean Jackson
13. Malcom Floyd
14. Donald Driver
15. Percy Harvin
16. Steve Breaston
17. Chad Johnson
18. Jeremy Maclin
19. Derrick Mason
20. Austin Collie
21. Roy Williams
22. Braylon Edwards
23. Anquan Boldin
24. Jerricho Cotchery
25. Bernard Berrian
26. Devery Henderson
27. Patrick Crayton
28. Laveranues Coles
29. Mark Clayton
30. James Jones

Tight Ends

1. Dallas Clark
2. Antonio Gates
3. Jason Witten
4. Jermichael Finley
5. Visanthe Shiancoe
6. Brent Celek
7. Jeremy Shockey
8. Ben Watson
9. Todd Heap
10. David Thomas
11. Dustin Keller
12. Martellus Bennett

Kickers

1. Adam Vinatieri/Matt Stover
2. Garrett Hartley
3. Nate Kaeding
4. Ryan Longwell
5. Mason Crosby
6. Shaun Suisham
7. Stephen Gostkowski
8. David Akers
9. Neil Rackers
10. Billy Cundiff
11. Shayne Graham
12. Jay Feely

Defenses

1. Colts
2. Saints
3. Chargers
4. Vikings
5. Packers
6. Cowboys
7. Patriots
8. Bengals
9. Jets
10. Eagles
11. Ravens
12. Cardinals

By Dalton Del Don

It’s never easy to project next season just after this one ended, especially with a new coaching staff taking over, but you have to think Fred Jackson’s Week 17 performance put a stamp on him being Buffalo’s true workhorse moving forward. Marshawn Lynch’s presence still causes concern, dropping him from first round consideration, but Jackson could be a second round pick in fantasy leagues in 2010…I’d let others make Reggie Wayne a top-five WR selection next season and take Pierre Garcon much later…Over the last five quarters, Curtis Painter has completed 28.6 percent of his passes for a 3.0 YPA mark. He also committed four turnovers without a TD. Of course, his opponents were two of the best secondaries in football, but still, that’s strikingly bad. After resting its starters in the second half of Week 16, what was Indy thinking having Peyton Manning attempt 18 passes last week?

No team has ever won the Super Bowl after finishing the regular season with two straight losses, something both No. 1 seeds have done this year, including the Saints dropping their final three games. To say they are limping into the playoffs would be an understatement…The Panthers would be fools not to enter 2010 with Matt Moore as their starting quarterback. Sure, the sample size has been small, but Moore just ended the season with an 8:0 TD:INT ratio with a 7.8 YPA mark over the final four contests. Three of the four opponents made the playoffs (the other being the Giants), and he didn’t have Steve Smith for one of them either. And if you want to talk sample size, how about Jake Delhomme’s last 12 games, when he’s committed 27 turnovers to just eight touchdowns.

Chris Jennings had one of the best runs of the season Sunday, but when it comes to Cleveland running backs, what more can be said about Jerome Harrison? It’s a joke he was planted on the bench so long. And while there’s no guarantee he could withstand a 350-carry type season, he ended the year by setting an NFL-record with 106 rushing attempts over the final three games – the most ever by a back over a three-game stretch…Over the last five games of the year, Mike Sims-Walker totaled just 12 catches for 129 yards with one touchdown, so he really struggled to finish the season, perhaps keeping his price tag down at 2010 draft tables.

Leave it to Jay Cutler to toss eight touchdowns to just one interception over the last two games, reminding everyone of his still vast potential. Especially if the recent revelation that Matt Forte suffered an MCL sprain in the middle of the year affected his performance more than we realized, he, Cutler and Greg Olsen should all be good targets in fantasy leagues next season…The Lions are 2-30 over the past two years – the worst stretch in NFL history (and yet they don’t even get the No. 1 pick in 2010’s draft).

Good luck trying to handicap Houston’s backfield next year. I’m still a Steve Slaton fan, and he might represent a good buy-low opportunity, but the Texans probably view him strictly as a change-of-pace type used extensively in passing situations, and undrafted Arian Foster impressed in between fumbles. To wit, the Pats entered last week having allowed an NFL-low four rushing scores on the year, yet Foster hit pay dirt twice Sunday (of course, New England’s D-line wasn’t at full strength, but still). Houston’s defense quietly improved over the second half of the year, and if not for some crazy last second losses, this 9-7 team could have easily been 11-5 this year. With continuity in the coaching staff and system, if Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels stay healthy in 2010, a playoff appearance should finally result…Interesting decision by Bill Belichick to play Tom Brady but remove him during both two-minute drills last week, the thought being to eliminate risk in obvious passing situations. What a devastating injury to Wes Welker (and how crazy was it that it once again involved Bernard Pollard?), and anyone who thinks Julian Edelman is a reasonable facsimile is way off.

Scary hit taken by Pat White. Weird he was ahead of Tyler Thigpen on the depth chart to begin with though. I’ve never seen a more conservative offense with White in. Chad Henne’s “eye” injury was clearly a euphemism for concussion…If you want to draft Rashard Mendenhall in fantasy leagues next year, it will likely cost a top-eight pick.

The toughest opponent in the NFL might very well be the Vikings when playing in Minnesota. They have a lot of warts and benefitted from a very easy schedule, but with the Saints looking extremely vulnerable, don’t be surprised by a deep run in the playoffs from the Vikes. Sidney Rice is a top-three WR in postseason fantasy leagues…Everyone keeps talking about Brandon Jacobs being soft, but if the guy really suffered a fairly serious knee injury Week 1, can we really fault him for his lackluster season? Of course, he seems to suffer a knee injury every year, so it’s not like I’m targeting him in fantasy leagues in 2010.

I love Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark, but I’d have a real hard time not ranking Vernon Davis as the No. 1 tight end in 2010…Ndamukong Suh looks can’t-miss, but he’s a defensive tackle. How can the Rams not take a quarterback?…San Francisco allowed 6.75 points per game during second halves this season, easily an NFL-low…It would be a big mistake if the 49ers entered 2010 completely content with Alex Smith as their quarterback of the future.

It’s too bad Antonio Bryant has likely talked himself off another team, because if he returned with a fully healthy knee next year, he would be just the weapon Josh Freeman could really grow with…If you examine the Falcons’ schedule and account for injuries, this is a team that will be dangerous in the NFC in 2010.

Dallas hadn’t scored a touchdown on its opening drive of any game over the first 13 contests this season and then did so in each of the final three games to close out the year. Go figure…The more I think about it, the more I’m willing to rank Miles Austin as the No. 3 wide receiver for fantasy purposes in 2010….The Eagles looked nothing short of terrible Sunday, but don’t be surprised if Saturday night’s wild card matchup is much more competitive, with a Philly win a possibility…You’ll hear people talk about how hard it is to beat a team three times in one season, and while that may be true because it’s rather rare, it’s not that hard once the first two games are out of the way. In fact, when teams meet for the third time in a given season, the squad that has won the first two times has a better winning percentage in game three than the one who has dropped the first two contests.

It’s safe to say the Cardinals will be in a lot of trouble when Matt Leinart becomes QB1. Considering Kurt Warner will be 39 years old when next season starts, that prospect may be sooner than any prospective Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Beanie Wells fantasy owner would like…The Packers are a weird team. On one hand, they were the most penalized team in the NFL this year and have a bad special teams unit. On the other, they led the league in turnover ratio and had the second-best point differential in football this season. They could easily lose this week to a team that didn’t try while watching GB utilize its playbook last Sunday, but the Packers also wouldn’t surprise if they made the Super Bowl either.

I won’t say the Broncos didn’t miss Brandon Marshall last week, but Jabar Gaffney sure made Eddie Royal look bad with a big performance. Marshall will be tough to rank in fantasy leagues next year, but hopefully his situation will become clearer come August…Tim Castille’s halfback pass was honestly one of the five-worst throws I’ve ever seen in any football game of my life last week, emphasized by the announcer suggesting the cornerback should have “called for a fair catch” on the throw.  I get it – you’re not a quarterback and not used to throwing in an NFL game. I don’t care. If the trick play doesn’t result in someone wide open, just throw the ball 10 rows deep in the stands. This isn’t rocket science…I‘ve been guilty in the past of overrating running backs similar to what Jamaal Charles has done – huge performances (on a bad team) down the stretch (and against weak competition) with little to no history. That said, I have Charles as the No. 6 overall pick in 2010 drafts, and I stand by it. He’s the real deal.

JaMarcus Russell didn’t show up to the Raiders’ season-ending meeting because he wanted to go to Vegas instead? I can’t say I blame him, but he’s now officially one of the five biggest busts in NFL history…Willis McGahee was the most worthless fantasy player to ever score 14 touchdowns in a given season this year…I keep hearing Joe Flacco getting killed in the media, but this is a sophomore QB who has posted a 7.9 YPA and a 7:1 TD:INT ratio over his past four games despite a bad outing in Oakland last week. His season YPA (7.2), TDs (21) and completion percentage (63.1) all rank in the top half of the league; he’s played one game indoors this season while facing an extremely difficult schedule with one of the worst receiving corps in football. Flacco deserves far more credit than he gets.

While I wasn’t impressed with Mike Shanahan the GM (at least not toward the end of his Denver tenure), it’s hard to deny he wasn’t a good coach, so I can’t wait to see what he does with this Washington roster, especially on offense. Good luck in that division…Here’s a Peter King quote from his MMQB column this week: “This is the year (Philip) Rivers joined the elite of NFL quarterbacks.” Look, I still read King and don’t care if he makes me cringe from time-to-time; the guy means well and works hard, but that comment is indefensible. I picked Rivers as the MVP last season. Dude had 34 TD passes (which tied for the NFL-lead, but he had six fewer INTs) with an 8.4 YPA that easily led the league. Call me crazy, but I think he entered the “elite” last season. Not to kill the guy, but later in King’s article, he argues Tim Tebow should be selected high because Joe Montana and Tom Brady lasted far too long during their drafts. Huh?

I love how many in Seattle are shocked by T.J. Houshmandzadeh being a bust during his first year as a Seahawk when he averaged 10.2 and 9.8 yards-per-catch during his last two seasons in Cincinnati. I mean, he’s always had good hands and had to deal with a terrible QB in his final season with the Bengals, but he’s eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving just twice during his eight-year career – never reaching 1,150 yards. He’s an OK possession receiver in a good offense and nothing more…That holding call should NOT have been called. Chris Johnson was screwed.

I’m beginning to think the Bengals didn’t show up to play Sunday night. Now that was embarrassing. That said, don’t be shocked if Cincy wins this week…The Jets have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL this season, and the No. 1 ranked run offense as well (I like YPC better than YPG, but still, their rushing attack is legit either way), but unfortunately, this is a passing league, so they have little chance of advancing past the divisional round of the AFC playoffs (and I’m a big Rex Ryan fan too).

Check it out.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 7-9, leaving me with a 117-119-4 record on the year. My best bet (the Pats) covered easily, making me 7-8-1 there. It’s been my worst year since I started picking every game ATS in 2007, but it’d be nice to finish with a record better than .500. But Week 17, as usual, features some pretty absurd lines.

COLTS +7 at Bills

SAINTS +7 at Panthers

JAGUARS +1 at Browns

BEARS -3 at Lions

PATRIOTS +8 at Texans

STEELERS -3 at Dolphins

GIANTS +9.5 at Vikings

49ers -7 at Rams

FALCONS -2.5 at Buccaneers

EAGLES +3 at Cowboys

PACKERS +3 at Cardinals

CHIEFS +13 at Broncos

RAVENS -10.5 at Raiders

REDSKINS +3.5 at Chargers

TITANS (Best Bet) -4 at Seahawks

Bengals +10 at JETS

Comments: I’ll go with the Titans as a best bet, despite them being a road favorite. The Seahawks are playing as poorly as any team in the league, and while Seattle isn’t an ideal place to play, Tennessee has had 10 days to prepare and is 7-2 over its past nine games. Chris Johnson should run wild.

By Dalton Del Don

RISERS

Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI – Westbrook (concussion) returned to action Sunday for the first time since Week 10, seeing 23 snaps. He remains a huge injury risk and is unlikely to be a true workhorse like in years past, but if he’s truly back to 100 percent, the Eagles will give him the majority of touches in Philly’s backfield from here on out. Westbrook is 30 years old and in the decline phase of his brilliant career, but he’s gotten 4.6 YPC and has remained active as a receiver when on the field in 2009, so he’s hardly finished. Because of his versatility, he could prove a difference maker during the Eagles’ postseason run.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – Foster has had an up-and-down last few weeks, but he was able to gain 97 yards rushing (5.1 YPC) with a score against the Dolphins last week, taking over as Houston’s lead back in the process. A good week of practice followed by no fumbles and a productive outing Sunday should lead to a continued featured role in Week 17 against the Patriots, and if he continues to impress, he’ll enter the mix for carries in 2010. The Texans’ running back situation is far from settled, and while Foster is undrafted and lacks the explosion of Steve Slaton, he’s more of a bruiser, and the coaching staff clearly likes him. He’s someone to keep your eye on moving forward.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Aside from his fumbling problems, Shonn Greene has quietly impressed when given the opportunity this season, getting 5.0 YPC. Thomas Jones has obviously played quite well this year and will enter 2010 as the Jets’ unquestioned RB1, but he’ll be 32 years old while approaching 2,300 career rushing attempts. Jones will also be coming off five straight seasons with at least 290 carries, so he’s a major candidate to breakdown, making Greene a highly desirable target in fantasy leagues, especially on a run-first team with an elite defense.

Brandon Gibson, WR, STL – Gibson’s overall numbers won’t jump out at you. In fact, he didn’t have a touchdown on the year until last week, but he’s shown plenty of flashes of promise regardless, and this is a rookie who was traded midseason and has endured a horrible quarterback situation in St. Louis. While Gibson is unlikely to have an elite signal caller working in his favor with the Rams next season, he’s probably passed the brittle Donnie Avery to become the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, and it’s not like the QB position can get any worse. Playing for a team that will need to pass frequently to offset a bad defense and in a division with mostly soft secondaries, Gibson will enter 2010 as a deep sleeper. He’s got legit potential.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – New York’s defense has been a big disappointment this season, but they entered last week with a YPC allowed mark ranking in the top-10 in the league and playing their final home game in Giants Stadium with its playoff lives on the line, so Stewart’s huge performance (206 rushing yards) was highly impressive. His fantasy value will remain limited as long as DeAngelo Williams is on the roster and healthy, but it’s worth noting just how good Stewart is when given the opportunity. Only eight backs have scored more than his 19 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and that’s come with a modest 389 rushing attempts. He’s gotten 4.9 YPC in 2009 despite playing through a painful heel injury, and any given week Williams is out with injury, Stewart is a top-five RB option regardless of opponent.

Devin Aromashadu, WR, CHI – No one has truly emerged from Chicago’s wide receiver corps this year, at least until Aromashadu recently, although that was too little too late to help any fantasy owners. At 6-2, 200 lbs with good speed, he possesses more physical tools than Earl Bennett and better size than Devin Hester. There’s no guarantee he’ll enter 2010 as a starter, but if Jay Cutler’s targets are any indication, the strong-armed QB thinks highly of Aromashadu, so he’s someone to consider late in drafts next year. Cutler has obviously been a disappointment this season, but he’s still got plenty of upside, and even if the interceptions continue, he’s likely to put up far bigger passing stats next season, and Aromashadu could be a big beneficiary.

FALLERS

Laurence Maroney, RB, NE – Maroney didn’t see the field again after losing his fourth fumble of the season last week and his third that occurred at the goal line. He’s the most talented back on the Patriots’ roster, but that’s still resulted in just 3.9 YPC on the year, and with such huge ball security issues, there’s no reason not to give Sammy Morris (and even Fred Taylor) most of New England’s carries from here on out. Maroney’s long-term outlook has suffered a hit as well, as Bill Belichick will have a hard time trusting the perennially disappointing back in the future.

Alex Smith, QB, SF – Smith finished with a 97.5 QB rating Sunday, but against the worst secondary in the league and with the benefit of their defense creating six turnovers, the 49ers’ offense was pretty disappointing, scoring just 20 points at home versus the Lions. San Francisco’s offensive line is solid, Frank Gore is one of the better running backs in the league and with Vernon Davis emerging as the league’s best tight end combined with exciting rookie WR Michael Crabtree, Smith has plenty of weapons to work with. The offensive scheme is hardly innovative, but coach Mike Singletary has played to Smith’s strengths, using the spread/shotgun formation often, yet it’s resulted in mediocre results. Smith’s 6.2 YPA mark is simply unacceptable, so San Francisco’s quarterback situation remains up in the air moving forward.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Even without Justin Fargas (knee), McFadden managed just 23 yards on seven carries last week against a bad Browns’ front seven. He’s averaged a paltry 3.5 YPC on the year, also fumbling five times (losing three) on just 99 rushing attempts. McFadden has only one touchdown in 2009 and too easily goes down on first contact, completely inept between the tackles. He has racked up 139 receiving yards over the past three games, so he’s not useless when used in the right capacity. McFadden can be productive as a change-of-pace type back, but he’s highly unlikely to ever live up to his draft status and has become an afterthought in fantasy leagues.

Quinton Ganther, RB, WAS – Since Ganther totaled 93 yards with two touchdowns during his first ever start in Week 14, he’s combined for just 34 rushing yards over the past two contests. He’s averaging an anemic 3.4 YPC on the season and looks nothing like a feature back in the NFL. The Redskins really need to improve their running back position during the offseason.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA – Over his last seven games, Hasselbeck has gotten 6.1 YPA with a 6:12 TD:INT ratio. He’s also fumbled eight times over that span, lucky enough to lose just two during that stretch. At age 34, it seems a bit premature to say he’s finished, but last season’s horrible performance (5.8 YPA, 5:10 TD:INT ratio) was hoped to be written off by a bad back injury, but then what’s the excuse for 2010? The offensive line has obviously really declined, but that can hardly be blamed for Hasselbeck suddenly becoming a well below average quarterback in a league where passing stats are through the roof. The Seahawks might live to regret taking Aaron Curry over a QB in last year’s draft for seasons to come.

Pierre Thomas, RB, N.O. – Thomas’ already disappointing fantasy season got even more frustrating last week, when he left early with a rib injury. He was able to rush for 60 yards with a touchdown before departing, but he hasn’t exactly proven his ability to stay healthy either, giving coach Sean Payton further reason to avoid giving him a full workload. Thomas has gotten an impressive 5.4 YPC on the year and will finish with more than respectable final numbers (1,168 total yards and nine touchdowns despite missing 2.5 games). But playing for the NFL’s best offense (33.3 points per game), Thomas was given more than 15 carries in a game just once this season, despite the gaudy YPC average, as clearly Payton simply doesn’t view him as a workhorse. It could have been so much more.

By Dalton Del Don

Vince Young showed last Thursday he’s still far from a finished product, but with 40 rushing yards and a TD on the ground as well, the outing also revealed that even during a terrible passing performance, his fantasy floor remains high because of his running ability. Young will enter 2010 as a strong QB2 target with upside…Give LaDainian Tomlinson credit for his still strong skills at the goal-line, but San Diego has an uncanny ability of producing many 1^st-and-goals from the one this season, often after pass interference calls in the end zone. Tomlinson’s 12 scores in 2009 have salvaged his fantasy value, but with a 3.3 YPC mark and just 866 total yards over 13 games, he’s clearly someone to avoid in 2010…Not much more can be said about Chris Johnson at this point. He’s both fantasy football’s No. 1 player as well as the NFL’s best running back. I’d feel comfortable spending around 40 percent of my budget on him in an auction next year.

Something is clearly wrong with the Saints, who have been outscored over the past four games, which has included back-to-back losses. It’s the wrong time of year for them to sputter, but there’s still time for correction…Over five games on the road during his rookie campaign, Josh Freeman has gotten 7.9 YPA…I’m not convinced I wouldn’t prefer Robert Meachem over Marques Colston next year, and since the latter should require a much higher pick, Meachem is the better target.

As much as any team in football, Buffalo needs to address its quarterback position during the offseason. Giving Brian Brohm one more tryout in Week 17 couldn’t hurt, but the team’s long-term answer under center isn’t currently on its roster…Where will Terrell Owens end up next season?…Matt Ryan’s YPA has plummeted this year (6.5) compared to his rookie campaign (7.9), as has his INT%. However, after throwing 16 touchdowns over 16 games last season, he’s already tossed 20 over just 12 contests in 2010. The loss of Michael Turner has led to some of the increased TDs, but expect Ryan to show marked improvement during his third year in the league. He’s a QB to target for those who wait on the position in the latter half of fantasy drafts next year.

Once again, the Texans are finishing a season strong, giving renewed hope for a playoff berth the following year. In no small part because he was finally able to stay healthy, Matt Schaub has firmly established himself as an elite quarterback. He’ll enter 2010 along with Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Brady and Romo as a strong tier 1 of fantasy quarterbacks…Larry Fitzgerald will be the only wide receiver worth considering drafting ahead of Andre Johnson in 2010 fantasy drafts…Miami badly needs a playmaker at wideout, and it looks like age (and a full workload) finally caught up to Ricky Williams.

How nice of John Carlson to score three touchdowns over a three-game stretch during the fantasy playoffs, when most owners had already given up on him…Put a fork in Matt Hasselbeck, he’s done. Is there a worse team in the NFL than the Seahawks right now?…Brandon Jackson entered Sunday’s game with two career touchdowns, so naturally, he reaches the end zone three times in Week 16, much to the chagrin of Ryan Grant owners.

What a pathetic performance by the Giants. Truly embarrassing. That said, with Matt Moore upgrading the QB position immeasurably, this is a dangerous Panthers team (at least until Steve Smith went down with a broken arm)…What a fitting end to Brandon Jacobs’ season. He should definitely come at a discount in fantasy leagues next year, but even when he’s able to suit up, Jacobs is seemingly always injured. I can’t stomach owning the guy…Jonathan Stewart was extremely impressive Sunday, as Carolina sports two top-10 NFL backs. It’s too bad each hurt the other’s fantasy value so much.

Mohamed Massaquoi could really be a player if Cleveland ever finds a capable quarterback. Same goes for Zach Miller and the Raiders…Considering it was freezing, how long could Sebastian Janikowski’s field goal have been good from in a dome or in Denver?…There are plenty of reasons why Eric Mangini deserves to be fired but none so glaring than him wasting so many carries on Jamal Lewis this season when an obvious and extreme upgrade in Jerome Harrison rotted away on the bench. If the Browns don’t bring in any backfield competition during the offseason, how high do you rank Harrison among fantasy backs next year?

No one fumbles more from the 1-yard line than Laurence Maroney. Don’t be surprised to see Sammy Morris and even Fred Taylor get the majority of New England’s carries from here on out…Over seven road games this season, David Garrard has thrown one touchdown pass. He has ran in three scores away from home, but that certainly hasn’t helped Mike Sims-Walker’s owners.

This Bengals offense is a real problem. Their surprising season is worth applauding, but with such a weak passing attack, it’d be a surprise if Cincinnati wasn’t one-and-done in the playoffs, despite a home game…Only Chris Johnson has been a more valuable fantasy commodity than Jamaal Charles since he took over workhorse duties in KC’s backfield. Assuming the Chiefs’ RB situation remains mostly the same, who would you take higher in 2010 fantasy drafts, Charles or DeAngelo Williams?

With a touchdown dropped by the usually sure-handed Derrick Mason and nearly 100 more penalty yards than the Steelers, the Ravens’ loss Sunday was a tough one to swallow. Thankfully for Baltimore, they still make the playoffs with a win in Oakland in Week 17…Santonio Holmes has scored three of his four touchdowns this season over the past five games, which would be huge news for his fantasy value moving forward if it’s a sign of things to come. His lack of TDs has really kept him from becoming an elite option over his career, and he’s on pace to finish with 1,326 receiving yards in 2010.

While QB will remain a problem in St. Louis, it can’t get any worse than this year, making Brandon Gibson a deep sleeper next year. Donnie Avery, meanwhile, simply can’t stay healthy…Like two other games in Week 17, the Cardinals are facing a weird situation this week, as why would they show their hand against a Packers team they very well may play six days later?…Of the Rams’ 45 active players in Week 16, 30 of them were sixth-round picks, seventh-round picks or undrafted.

Alex Smith finished with a 97.5 QB rating Sunday, but against the worst secondary in the league and with the benefit of their defense creating six turnovers, the 49ers’ offense was pretty disappointing, scoring just 20 points at home versus the Lions. San Francisco’s quarterback situation remains up in the air moving forward…If you’re a Detroit fan, are you rooting for a loss this week and a win by the Rams?

Getting more playing time thanks to Eddie Royal’s injury, Jabar Gaffney scored twice last week, and the Broncos’ offense looked improved. Royal, meanwhile, is still searching for his first score of 2010…Donovan McNabb has gotten a whopping 9.4 YPA over the past four games, as the Eagles’ offense has become a force. Teams will have a harder time worrying about DeSean Jackson deep with Jeremy Maclin’s return to the lineup as well. Few fantasy picks have been as profitable as Brent Celek this year.

As a football fan, I would have liked to see the Colts go for an undefeated season, but no one should act shocked with them benching some starters after the coaches spoke of the very real possibility throughout last week. With the Saints and Vikings also sputtering, the playoffs sure look a lot more wide open than a few weeks back…What a terrific goal-line TD run by Donald Brown…Aside from his fumbling problems, Shonn Greene has quietly impressed when given the opportunity this season, getting 5.0 YPC. Thomas Jones has obviously played quite well this year and will enter 2010 as the Jets’ unquestioned RB1, but he’ll be 32 years old while approaching 2,300 career rushing attempts. Jones will also be coming off five straight seasons with at least 290 carries, so he’s a major candidate to breakdown, making Greene a highly desirable target in fantasy leagues, especially on a run-first team with an elite defense.

Tony Romo was picked off Sunday for the first time since Week 11, and while his YPA (8.1) and TD production (24) remain elite, his big improvement in ball security makes Dallas dangerous in the postseason. Romo entered 2009 with 46 interceptions over 61 career games. He has thrown just eight over 15 contests this year…The Jim Zorn era isn’t ending pretty in Washington. How does a team punt down 17-0 at their own 40-yard line with 5:55 left? Isn’t the goal to win?

What a fantastic Monday night game, especially the second half. Where has that been all year Chicago? The Bears are just an entirely different team when at home…It’s Devin Aromashadu’s world, and the rest of us are just living in it…Adrian Peterson has averaged just 3.3 YPC over the past six games, and his fumbling problem has become an epidemic. Thankfully, Peterson’s drastic improvement in the passing game has kept him as one of the four most valuable fantasy backs. But the YPC slump has been curious, especially with such a strong passing attack working in his favor. The small sample size is growing.

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 8-6-2, bringing my overall season record to 110-110-4. Like Jerry Seinfeld, I’m Even Steven entering Week 16. My best bet (KC) lost, making me 6-8-1 there on the year. Every single home team is favored this week until Sunday night’s game, and I really struggle with all these big spreads. Merry Christmas.

Chargers +3 at TITANS

BILLS +9 at Falcons

CHIEFS +14 at Bengals

Raiders +3 at BROWNS

SEAHAWKS +14 at Packers

Texans +3 at DOLPHINS

Panthers +7 at GIANTS

Jaguars +8 at PATRIOTS (Best Bet)

Buccaneers +14 at SAINTS

Ravens +2.5 at STEELERS

RAMS +14 at Cardinals

Lions +12 at 49ers

Broncos +7 at EAGLES

JETS +5.5 at Colts

Cowboys -7 at REDSKINS

Vikings -7 at BEARS

Comments: Pats are a sleeping giant and tough at home, whereas the Jags are frauds and extremely vulnerable on the road. That said, no best bet jumped out at me this week.

Check it out.

By Dalton Del Don

RISERS

Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE – Harrison and Chris Jennings have traded off as upgrades seemingly every other week for the past month, so Cleveland’s backfield usage is anything but predictable. After Harrison’s performance Sunday (286 rushing yards, three touchdowns), he should be the starter from here on out. The former Pac-10 leading rusher has always impressed when given the opportunity, averaging 5.2 YPC throughout his NFL career while showing good skills as a receiver as well. Poor blocking has held him back and kept him in the coaches’ doghouse, but at some point, Harrison needs to be given the chance to act as the Browns’ workhorse. Even if it came against a bad Chiefs’ rushing defense, Sunday’s outburst was truly impressive and a historically great day by the running back. It’s a shame Cleveland wasted so many carries on Jamal Lewis this season.

Maurice Morris, RB, DET – Morris totaled 161 yards on just 22 touches last week against the Cardinals, immediately upgrading Detroit’s backfield. In fact, Morris’ 64-yard TD run provided a rare case of explosion previously missing from the Lions’ rushing attack, as Kevin Smith’s longest run of the season was 31 yards – his only carry that went for more than 20 yards on the year (217 rushing attempts). Morris is a former second round pick, but that was way back in 2002, and he’s basically a career journeyman without much long-term upside. Still, his performance Sunday highlighted what was missing from Detroit’s running game all year, so the team really needs to address the position during the offseason. Morris isn’t a terrible flex start for those desperate in Week 16, but his matchup in San Francisco doesn’t look great on paper.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Over the last three weeks, Smith has racked up 318 receiving yards with two touchdowns, giving a glimpse of the kind of stats he could compile with even mediocre play from his quarterback. Smith’s 2009 season will no doubt go down as a disappointment (although he could still finish with the second-highest TD total of his career), but that just means he could come at something of a discount at fantasy drafts next year. All six of his touchdowns this season have come over the past eight games.

Michael Bush, RB, OAK – Bush ran for 133 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries Sunday (7.4 YPC) in Denver, and few if any fantasy owners benefitted. That’s because coach Tom Cable has refused to give Bush much of an opportunity this season, as he’d been given a total of eight carries over the previous four games combined, despite Bush’s 5.0 YPC mark on the year. In fact, he only got an opportunity Sunday because starter Justin Fargas tweaked a knee. Fargas has gotten just 3.8 YPC this season and is an underwhelming back, and while Darren McFadden remains a factor, he’s better suited as a change-of-pace RB and not one who runs between the tackles. Bush clearly looks like Oakland’s best running back, but it remains to be seen if the coaching staff ever agrees.

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – Over the past three games, Manning has gotten 10.1 YPA with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio – all against division rivals with strong secondaries, so he’s currently playing some of the best football of his career. If you go back further, Manning has posted a 13:3 TD:INT ratio over the past six games. His current 8.1 YPA mark is by far a career-high (previous best was 6.8), and his 26 touchdown passes are already more than he’s ever had in a season with two games left on the schedule. Who knows what his final numbers would have looked like had a foot injury not affected his play in the middle of the year. With three young wide receivers fast developing into potential stars, Manning’s fantasy outlook has never looked better.

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – Over the past three games, Finley has racked up 21 catches for 223 yards and three scores. His knee that has hampered him for much of the season still isn’t even 100 percent, so imagine the type of numbers he could put up in 2010 while fully healthy and entering just his third year in the league. Having Aaron Rodgers throwing to him doesn’t hurt either. Finley should probably be viewed as a top-five tight end entering 2010, while Rodgers is likely to go in the second round of most drafts.

FALLERS

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – Wayne is coming off a big game last week (132 yards, one TD), topping 50 receiving yards for the first time since Week 11. Still, there’s no guarantee the Colts don’t start resting their star players in Week 16, and even if Wayne does play a full complement of snaps Sunday, he’ll likely be shadowed by Darrelle Revis this week. In seven games against Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss this season, Revis has limited them to 32 catches for 179 yards and one touchdown combined. Wayne is at least worth considering benching Week 16 in fantasy leagues.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – Williams cost a lot of fantasy teams their league last week, when he left Sunday’s game for good after gaining just 13 rushing yards on six carries. Williams aggravated an ankle sprain that has been bothering him for the past few weeks, and salt was poured in the wound watching Jonathan Stewart tear it up afterward (123 yards, two touchdowns). Williams has shown improvement as a receiver this season, and his 5.2 YPC mark remains impressive, but he hasn’t received 20 carries in a game since Week 9 and has been given that amount just three times all year, so he’ll go down as a fantasy disappointment in 2009.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – After gaining 88 yards in Week 14, Foster looked like Houston’s lead back and was a popular fantasy start Sunday, but a fumble led to an early benching and zero carries the rest of the way (he had also fumbled in practice earlier that week). Ryan Moats underwhelmed in his place (13 carries, 46 yards), so as long as he corrects the fumbling problem, coach Gary Kubiak is likely to give Foster another chance over the final two games of the season. Still, he’s a gamble in fantasy leagues.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Turner lasted just one carry when he returned to action last week, leaving after his high-ankle sprain was aggravated. He’s been useless in fantasy leagues over the past five games, as the injury has essentially ruined the second half of his season. Even if he’s able to suit up in Week 16, Turner is simply too risky to use with the chance of him exiting early once again.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Jacobs is still searching for his first 100-yard rushing game this season, and he’s averaged just 3.2 YPC over the past five contests. Moreover, he lost goal-line work to Ahmad Bradshaw last week, and despite already playing in more games this year compared to last, his rushing scores have dropped from 15 to five.

Brady Quinn, QB, CLE – Quinn’s season is finished after Cleveland placed him on IR with a foot injury. He got just 3.9 YPA with a 0:2 TD:INT ratio in his final game of the year, so he didn’t exactly leave on a high note. Quinn finished 2009 with a paltry 5.2 YPA mark and an 8:7 TD:INT ratio over nine starts, so it’s safe to assume the Browns will take a hard look at addressing the quarterback position during the offseason.

By Dalton Del Don

At home this season, David Garrard has posted a 12:5 TD:INT ratio, but when on the road, he’s recorded just a 1:2 TD:INT ratio. There wasn’t a big discrepancy entering 2009, so it’s likely an anomaly (albeit a season long one), but it’s worth noting nevertheless. Mike Sims-Walker’s stats have been directly affected by Garrard’s splits as a result…Dallas Clark’s five touchdowns over a five-day span probably led to a bunch of his fantasy owners still being alive come Week 16…Reggie Wayne ended his mini slump in a big way Thursday, but he’s worth considering benching in fantasy leagues this week. There’s a chance he’s rested some come Sunday, but even more worrisome, Darrelle Revis is likely to shadow him all game. It’s a big concern for Wayne’s fantasy owners.

What a performance by the Cowboys. This is still a vulnerable squad, especially outdoors, but Dallas is also capable of beating any team in football when they play their “A” game. Hard to believe DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field just six days earlier…What’s up with the horrible kicking this season?…The Wade Phillips blank stare from the sidelines is easily one of my five favorite things of the 2009 NFL year. Sometimes I rewind them on DVR multiple times. It never gets old. It looks like he’s trying to do long division in his head or something…The Saints have actually been outscored over the past three weeks…Over his last four games, Tony Romo has gotten 8.5 YPA with an 8:0 TD:INT ratio, recording a 111.9 QB rating over that span. Not this season of course, but in many others he’d be a legit MVP candidate.

Over the Browns’ three wins in 2009, their quarterbacks have combined for 18-for-53 (33.9%) for 179 yards (3.4 YPA) and a 0:3 TD:INT ratio. Josh “take it to the” Cribbs is pretty ridiculous. He deserves a huge payday this offseason. Best kick returner of all-time?…For those who gambled and started Dwayne Bowe during his first game back from suspension, the end result was disappointing, but the decision wasn’t necessarily misguided considering he received a team-high 10 targets and immediately went back to being KC’s No. 1 option in the passing game. Still, rust played a factor, as he dropped three passes (then again, he does that even without time off), one of which was a sure touchdown…The back-and-forth between who to use between Chris Jennings and Jerome Harrison has to go down as one of the most frustrating aspects of the year, at least during crunch time. Harrison’s performance Sunday was one for the ages, and he was highly unlikely to be in any fantasy lineups. It may have come against a bad Chiefs’ run defense, but Harrison has always impressed (other than in pass protection) when given the opportunity. What a joke that Cleveland wasted so many carries on Jamal Lewis earlier this year. There’s no guarantee what Eric Mangini will do, but if I own Harrison, there’s no way I’m not playing him at home against Oakland in Week 16…Did you see the final play of the game Sunday? At the 26-yard line, Matt Cassel dropped back and waited about 5-10 seconds and threw basically what amounted to a hail mary that ended up hitting the field goal post. Did he think he was at the 50-yard line? Truly bizarre (and pathetic). I hope he watched Ben Roethlisberger during Pittsburgh’s final play later that day…If Kansas City doesn’t bring in any competition and Jamaal Charles stays durable over the final two games, how high does he go in fantasy drafts in 2010? Second round? Higher? His late season schedule has been favorable, but remember, he’s doing all his damage running behind an already bad offensive line that was missing its left guard and right tackle last week.

I’m all for players gutting it out and playing hurt, but Michael Turner needs to learn when it’s too soon to return to action, if only to save fantasy owners from headaches. He could be a steal if he falls to the end of the first round in drafts next year because of his injury-riddled second half this season…The Jets are a quarterback away from being one of the best teams in the NFL. Of course, that’s the most important position on the field. Hopefully Mark Sanchez takes a big leap next year…Darrelle Revis is unbelievable (no clue why he wasn’t guarding Roddy White in man coverage when the Falcons had 3rd-and-9 with 2:15 left in the fourth quarter), and it’s almost to the point where fantasy owners need to bench clear No. 1 WRs when facing him, no matter the name. In eight games against Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss and Roddy White this season, Revis has held them to 35 catches for 196 yards and one touchdown combined. There isn’t a more valuable defensive player in football.

The Dolphins’ defense has allowed 8.1 YPA this year (third highest) and have given up 15 scores on the ground (bottom-10). On offense, their 20 rushing scores lead the league, but the passing attack has averaged just 203.6 yards per game with a 12:15 TD:INT ratio, so on paper this team hardly looks like a playoff contender. In reality, they seem to always find a way to be in the game on Sundays, as they are clearly better than the numbers suggest…What a catch by Brian Hartline. One of the better plays of the 2009 season…If it wasn’t abundantly clear already, it is now: Chris Johnson is the No. 1 pick in fantasy leagues in 2010. Hands down…I’m a Jeff Fisher fan, but there’s no excuse for what he did Sunday. With Miami pinned at their own 2-yard line with 56 seconds left in the fourth quarter, he decided not to use any of his three timeouts, opting for overtime instead of potentially forcing the Dolphins to punt deep out of their own end zone.

Tom Brady has a 4:6 TD:INT ratio over the past four games, although with a 7.5 YPA mark and just one sack over that span, he hasn’t been truly awful. Look for a strong finish to the season, with a home game against the Jaguars this week followed by a trip to Houston afterward…The Bills rely on their ground game and secondary to win games, but with Brian Brohm taking over QB duties, the team could be in big trouble Sunday. The Falcons defense suddenly becomes a viable fantasy option in Week 16.

Maurice Morris sure made Kevin Smith look bad Sunday, as his 64-yard TD was easily the longest run by a Lions’ back this season. In fact, Kevin Smith only had one rush for more than 20 yards all year, his long of 31 yards. Morris did so during a game when two Detroit offensive lineman were benched. The Lions really need to address the RB position during the offseason…With constant double teams and bad quarterback play, Calvin Johnson really has odds stacked against him, not to mention he’s playing on a banged up knee as well. He’s been a massive fantasy disappointment this year, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a bargain in 2010…Beanie Wells remains an injury-risk and still needs to improve in pass protection, as a receiver and with ball security, but man is he a terrific running back with the ball in his hands. He’s a top-10 start in Week 16, and I might be willing to spend a second round pick on him in 2010. If he’s available later, all the better.

Steven Jackson has already played in more games this year than either of the past two campaigns, showing real toughness fighting through a painful back injury in a lost Rams’ season. The four touchdowns have been a real disappointment, but he’s also on pace to finish with 1,914 total yards playing for a St. Louis team that has averaged an NFL-low 11.4 points per game. He’ll once again be worth a mid-first round pick in fantasy leagues next year…Ultimately, those who started Arian Foster last week were burned, but if not for a fumble on the opening drive, he likely would have had a nice game. What’s with Texans’ backs and fumbling this season?

I’m not sure what was my favorite moment of the Raiders/Broncos game Sunday, Gus Johnson comparing JaMarcus Russell to Johnny Unitas, or Greg Papa’s touchdown call…If there’s one thing Oakland does well, it’s kick. Shane Lechler continues to be the best punter in the league averaging a whopping 51.5 yards per punt (the highest in NFL history, and yes, he also leads the NFL with a 44.2 net), while Sebastian Janikowski leads the NFL with five FG makes from 50-plus yards, and his only three misses all season are from 45, 57 and 66 yards out (he also ranks in the top-10 in touchbacks)…Why did it take Justin Fargas tweaking his knee for Michael Bush to get carries? Like Jerome Harrison, Justin Forsett and Jamaal Charles, it’s simply maddening how coaches refuse to give carries to superior backups, electing to give them to inferior veterans instead. Infuriating really. I hope they all get fired…While Mike Lombardi, Bill Simmons and Josh McDaniels would argue the opposite, it appears Knowshon Moreno (like most running backs) wasn’t worth a top-15 pick in the draft. He’s struggled in short-yardage situations and has yet to have one rush of 40-plus yards all year. In fact, he has just two carries that have gone for more than 20 yards over 224 rushes this year, and the Broncos’ offensive line is good. Journeyman Correll Buckhalter has averaged 5.3 YPC compared to Moreno’s 3.9 on the year. Why would any team spend an early pick on a running back unless he’s a true (and rare) game changer? Moreno can still be a plenty valuable fantasy back, but Denver made a mistake taking him so early as well as giving up a first round pick in 2010 to draft the disappointing Alphonso Smith in the second round last year.

Nice to see Carson Palmer still has a pulse, as Sunday’s game was his first 300-yard effort of the season and also his first multiple TD game since Week 7…For owners who survived Cedric Benson’s dud last week, they should be rewarded big time in Week 16 with a home game against a Chiefs’ front seven that has allowed an NFL-high 4.8 YPC and 16 rushing scores on the year…With 58 yards through the air Sunday, LaDainian Tomlinson nearly doubled his receiving output on the season. Fantasy owners would be wise to concentrate more on his 3.3 YPC average than his 10 touchdowns at next year’s draft table.

Over seven games on the road this year, Jay Cutler has thrown 20 interceptions. No other quarterback in the NFL has more than 20 interceptions in the 2009 season…Don’t tell Ray Rice owners there isn’t such a thing as too good of a matchup. He’s totaled 323 yards (and 8.7 YPC) over the past two games, but thanks to lopsided scores (they’ve won 79-10 over that span), he’s played essentially just five quarters, so it could have been so much more.

Despite playing for an offense that has averaged the second-most points in the league this year (28.5), there simply isn’t a running back on the Eagles worth using in fantasy leagues. That’s even more true if Brian Westbrook (concussion) returns in Week 16…Conversely, Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree and the 49ers’ defense are all worth using at home against the Lions this week…I’m beginning to think you might want to devote some attention to DeSean Jackson in the secondary. How did 49 players get drafted before him in 2008?

Jermichael Finley should enter next year as a top-five tight end, while Aaron Rodgers is likely to be gone by the end of the second round. I still don’t know what to make of Ryan Grant…Ben Roethlisberger has completed 67.7 percent of his passes with an 8.6 YPA mark (third-highest in NFL) this year, also throwing 22 touchdowns over 13 games. The Steelers have been hugely disappointing in 2009, but it certainly hasn’t been his fault. What a terrific pass on the final play of the game Sunday.

Matt Hasselbeck has posted a 5:8 TD:INT ratio over the past six games, and the QB position has become a real concern in Seattle. Where has that been all season John Carlson?…Thinking back on his early ADP, it’s pretty crazy that last week Derrick Ward’s 67 yards rushing were his season-high. He also hasn’t had a rushing touchdown since Week 1. I guess that’s what happens when in a timeshare on a bad team.

If DeAngelo Williams owners weren’t already burned this year, they are now after Sunday’s early exit. And if that wasn’t already frustrating enough, it couldn’t have helped watching Jonathan Stewart score two touchdowns and become the first RB to run for 100 yards against the Vikings in 37 games in Williams’ place….Brett Favre has five touchdown passes over four outdoor games this year. He has 22 scores through the air over 10 games indoors. And am I supposed to be surprised he has more control than Brad Childress?…Steve Smith was awesome Sunday night, but I was most impressed by his postgame interview when he established the “rules and regulations.”

Over the last four games, Fred Davis has 17 catches for 211 yards and five touchdowns, so while he’s still a major work in progress as a blocker, it should be interesting to see how he coexists with Chris Cooley next season…It’s so easy to criticize after the fact, but that fake field goal was pretty humorous. Might want to block the oncoming defensive linemen…Over the past three games, Eli Manning has gotten 10.1 YPA with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio – all against division rivals with strong secondaries, so he’s currently playing some of the best football of his career. If you go back further, Manning has posted a 13:3 TD:INT ratio over the past six games. His current 8.1 YPA mark is by far a career-high (previous best was 6.8), and his 26 touchdown passes are already more than he’s ever had in a season with two games left on the schedule. Who knows what his final numbers would have looked like had a foot injury not affected his play in the middle of the year. With three young wide receivers fast developing into potential stars, Manning’s fantasy outlook has never looked better.