RotoScoop.com

By Dalton Del Don

As someone who owns Ubaldo Jimenez in WCOF, watching his first start of the season was a brutal experience. It’s never fun getting burned in ERA right out of the gate (don’t panic Cole Hamels owners), but that was far from the biggest issue here. After his fastball averaged 96.1 mph last season (a full 0.7 mph faster than any other starter in baseball), it averaged 91.3 during Jimenez’s first start, and his secondary stuff was equally as unimpressive. He faced 26 batters. And struck out one of them. He didn’t allow his second homer of the season until June 6 last year, a feat that lasted all of 5.1 innings in 2011. The following excuse – cut on thumb – seems about the best news possible, and fantasy owners will gladly accept a couple skipped starts if that results in last year’s version returning shortly thereafter. Jimenez looked shockingly ordinary during his first start of the year.

An oldie but goodie. Let’s hope this guy is behind bars by now.

This guy is fearless, and it’s almost as if he’s disappointed at the lack of aggression.

Before injuries ruined his 2009 season, Jose Reyes averaged 14 homers, 65 steals, 113 runs scored and 66 RBI over the previous four years. He wasn’t all the way back last season, but Reyes did hit 11 homers and swipe 30 bags despite missing 30 games. He’s a career .285 hitter still just 27 years old. There’s some uncertainty involved with him a prime trade candidate now in the final year of his contract, but that really only really matters in NL-only formats that lose stats if moved to the American League. I’m not a believer in performance having anything to do with contracts, but stolen bases are the one category based greatly on will, and Reyes should be plenty motivated to rack up the steals with an eye on a monster contract entering his prime. It’s possible Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter bounce back, but after Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki, the shortstop landscape looks pretty barren in fantasy terms, giving Reyes even more value. His upside (20 homers, 75 steals) might be higher than any player in the league.

Pretty scary car crash.

Fernando Rodney entered the year likely the biggest favorite to lose his closer’s job at some point this season, but it happened sooner than expected, with Mike Scioscia pulling the plug after just two appearances, when he managed to walk as many batters (four) as he retired. Expect the move to be permanent, both because Rodney is a below average reliever, and his replacement Jordan Walden is more than capable of running away with the job (and if he isn’t, Scott Downs or Kevin Jepsen are superior alternatives). With eight walks over 19.2 major league innings, Walden’s hardly a finished product, but with a whopping 30 strikeouts over that span, it’s clear his stuff is electric (his average fastball velocity in the majors is 98.4 mph, and his slider 85.4 mph). Walden’s numbers weren’t overwhelming in the minors, as he finished with a 1.53 WHIP (and a 7.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9) over Double and Triple-A last season, but he obviously now has the opportunity to make a major fantasy impact.

I’m not a religious fellow, but I can get behind this idea for Lent.

Milton Bradley was a popular late round pick by me this year, and in most leagues I didn’t grab him, I’ve since added him via the waiver wire. Of course, we are talking about deeper formats, and he’s coming off a year in which he hit .205/.292/.348. But he posted a .378 OBP in 2009 and was a monster the year before that (.321/.436/.563). That was in Texas, and he’s now in Seattle and soon to be 33 years old, but Bradley is currently hitting third in the lineup and capable of producing before his next inevitable injury strikes. Even while hitting .205 in a miserable season last year, he was on pace for 20 homers and 20 steals over a 600 AB projection. Bradley deserves to be on most rosters right now.

Your everyday love story between a man and a…goose?

Ya that’s real normal.

Curtis Granderson was already an interesting target this year coming off a disappointing first season in New York, but since his health status was in question when many drafts were held the final weekend leading up to Opening Day, he could prove to be a real bargain in 2011 with him being ready since day one. He’s hit .249 and .247 over the past two years, as he continues to struggle mightily against lefties, but he’s also averaged 27 home runs and 16 steals over that span, and that’s included just 69 games in new Yankee Stadium. Granderson has been successful on 81 percent of his SB attempts during his career, and manager Joe Girardi encourages running, so he’s fully capable of swiping 20-25 bags, especially while hitting at the bottom of the lineup. Batting eighth is hardly ideal otherwise, but with the Yankees that’s like hitting third in a normal lineup. According to the Bill James Handbook, Yankee Stadium had a home run index of 170 for left-handers last season, which led the majors. Put differently, it was 70 percent easier to hit homers there than the rest of the parks in the league. The HR index is 141 for LHB since the stadium’s inception. Granderson is a career .268 hitter, and don’t be surprised if he sets a career-high in homers this year.

So basically, members of the Phillies’ rotation are A-holes?

Man barks at dog. Gets arrested.

Sean Burnett is a former first round pick (back in 2000) and was very good last season, recording 62 strikeouts with 20 walks over 63.0 innings, resulting in a 2.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Maybe he’s finally figured it out, but it’s worth noting he was essentially the pitcher he’s always been when looking at velocity and pitch type, which is someone with a career 1.6:1 K:BB ratio. In fact, Burnett has recorded 102 strikeouts to 76 walks over 157.0 career innings versus right-handers, and the lefty won’t be protected there in the closer’s role. Drew Storen had a shaky spring, posting an 11.12 ERA, and he’s allowed two runs (one earned) over 2.2 innings since the season started, but that’s all been accompanied by a 12:4 K:BB ratio over 14.0 innings, so he hasn’t pitched as poorly as the cosmetic stats suggest. His stuff is better than Burnett’s, so while fully aware we are paying for roles as much as skills in fantasy baseball, I’d still be targeting Storen in trade talks right now. He’s the guy the franchise wants to see runaway with the job anyway…As for other middling fantasy closers, could things have started better for Joel Hanrahan? Not only has he already recorded four saves, but Evan Meek has been tattooed for seven runs (four earned) over 2.2 innings, further solidifying Hanrahan in the ninth inning role.

I’m pretty obsessed with the new TV On The Radio. It’s now official – they are one of my three favorite groups over the past decade.

Zach Britton is probably long gone in your league by now, but even with all the normal pitching in the A.L. East caveats applying, the rookie was a must-add. His opportunity came earlier than expected with Brian Matusz’s unfortunate injury, and Britton didn’t disappoint during his first career start, holding the Rays scoreless over six innings despite lacking his normal sinking fastball, usually his go-to pitch. He allowed just three hits nevertheless, and his ability to induce groundballs in the minors should translate well in the big leagues. But as far as rookie pitchers go, Brandon Beachy looks to be the better guy to own this year, and not just because he plays in the easier league. At first I thought the Braves were crazy for choosing him over Mike Minor, and while the latter still has a bright future himself, maybe the former isn’t just keeping the seat warm in Atlanta. Beachy went undrafted, but that looks like a huge mistake now, as his strong spring training was backed by absolutely dominant numbers over Double and Triple-A as a 23-year-old last season (11.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9). I ignored him during my fantasy drafts, and it looks like it’s going to be at my own peril.

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Before we get started, make sure you didn’t miss my latest “Scoop” (I say this because I’m making a rare two posts in one day).

N.L. West

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (wild card)
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

N.L. Central

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

N.L. East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

A.L. West

1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland A’s
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Seattle Mariners

A.L. Central

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

A.L. East

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (wild card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

World Series: Phillies over Yankees

AL MVP – Alex Rodriguez

NL MVP – Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young – Jon Lester

NL Cy Young – Clayton Kershaw

AL ROY – Jeremy Hellickson

NL ROY – Brandon Belt

Over/Unders:

(these are all bets I actually placed at normal -110 juice at the Las Vegas Hilton)

New York Yankees over 91.5

Los Angeles Dodgers over 83.5

Philadelphia Phillies under 96.5

Tampa Bay Rays over 84

Toronto Blue Jays over 76.5

(Others I like include: White Sox over 84.5, Royals under 69.5, Reds over 85.5, Astros under 72.5 and Padres over 75).

I also took the Reds at 5/2 to win the NL Central and have the Brewers to win the World Series at 40/1.

I also have Jay Bruce (30/1), Carlos Quentin (100/1) and Justin Upton (100/1) to lead MLB in home runs.

By the way, these aren’t for entertainment purposes only. These are all for serious cash, and I need a comeback after this recent epic fail.

By Dalton Del Don

Alex Gordon has a line of .244/.328/.405 over nearly 1,500 career at-bats in the major leagues, but thanks to a white hot spring (1.188 OPS) he’s back on the fantasy radar. The former No. 2 overall pick isn’t really a sleeper and don’t expect him to be available super late in drafts, but he could ultimately prove to be a bargain nevertheless. Plenty of past owners have been burned, and many others likely remain skeptical. Gordon posted a 1.019 OPS in Triple-A last season, so it’s not like the former top prospect has forgotten how to hit. While he batted just .215 and struggled yet again in Kansas City, his BABIP was .254 despite a 23.2 line drive percentage. Kauffman Stadium suppresses home runs, especially for left-handed hitters, but Gordon has already been named the team’s No. 3 hitter, so he’s worth giving one more chance, and he’s even eligible at third base in Yahoo leagues and fully capable of swiping 15 bags as well. Teammate Kila Ka’aihue has been even more impressive this spring, with a .397/.462/.845 line and seven homers over just 58 at-bats. It’s only spring training, but big jumps in slugging percentage like that can often portend major breakouts.

Yeah but I bet I could beat this kid at fantasy sports.

I must say, I’ve always been a sucker for “Careless Whisper.”

It’s taken much longer than expected, but Tim Stauffer is finally ready to make a major impact. Taken early in the first round back in 2003, he admitted to the Padres his arm was injured after San Diego used the fourth overall pick on him, but the team signed him anyway. It’s been a long road back, and while it’s obvious his numbers are going to regress this year compared to last, he’s got a decent enough skill set to succeed with Petco Park on his side. Stauffer has pretty good control, and while his fastball is mediocre, his velocity was better than ever last season, and both his slider and changeup are plus pitches, and he’s an extreme groundballer (54.5 GB%). He’s a solid investment.

I could give 15 a pass, but 16 is crossing the line.

With friends like these, who needs enemies?

Magglio Ordonez is one of my favorite boring old veterans to target this year. Before suffering a season-ending ankle injury last year, he was on pace to finish with 21 homers, 96 runs scored and 101 RBI. He won’t add any speed, and his power is limited at this stage of his career, but he’s also a career .312 hitter, and average continues to be an overlooked fantasy category. Once again slated to hit in the middle of Detroit’s lineup, which improved during the offseason, I’d be fine with Ordonez as my fourth outfielder and thrilled if he were my fifth.

I always suspected the Olsen twins were total racists.

I’m a huge fan of bacon, but even I say this is taking it too far.

The closer we get to the season starting, the more I find myself moving Matt Thornton up my closer rankings. He’s unproven in that role, and Chris Sale looks impressive behind him, but with so many question marks around the league, Thornton suddenly looks like a legitimate top-10 option. He has an elite 4.2:1 K:BB ratio over the past three seasons, a span in which his ERA has never reached 2.75 or his WHIP 1.10. There’s also no reason to worry about him being a southpaw, as he’s almost as tough on righties as he is lefties. The White Sox are my favorites to win the AL Central, so plenty of save opportunities should arise, and his 12.02 K/9 rate last year was fifth best among all relievers in baseball. Thornton’s fastball is simply unhittable.

A legendary drunk dial.

The human garbage can.

A different member of the White Sox I’m actually a bit worried about is Adam Dunn. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling him a bust, but his underlying skills quietly changed last year, even if his traditional stats remained exactly the same. In essentially the same amount of at-bats, Dunn walked 39 fewer times compared to the year prior, and he also struck out 22 more times. In fact, his walk rate was a career-low while his K rate was a career-high. It could mean nothing and just be noise over an inconsequential sample and not the sign of a player 32 years old entering decline, but he’s now playing in the tougher league and has to deal with learning an entirely new set of pitchers. Moving to U.S. Cellular Field will certainly help, but while it boosts home runs for both, it has a much more dramatic effect on right-handed batters than left-handers (according to the Bill James Handbook, over the past three years, the park’s index is 117 for LHB and 145 for RHB). It also remains to be seen how he’ll adjust to becoming a full-time DH, something he’s been reluctant to do his entire career. Dunn will most likely be good for another 40 bombs this season, but remember his career batting average is .250.

These are some serious limbo skills.

This Skittles commercial is pretty whack.

Gio Gonzalez posted a 2.59 ERA and 1.23 WHIP after the All-Star break last season, but while he also showed improved control over that span, he walked 20 batters over 33.2 innings in September, which marked his worst month of the year. Still, his K potential is strong, and pitching in Oakland is always helpful with all that extra foul territory. The defense behind him should also be exceptional. Gonzalez has recorded a 2.30 ERA with 29 strikeouts over 27.0 innings this spring, and his teammates have raved about how legit he’s looked, so if you believe in those kind of things (I personally think sometimes performance during spring matters), you better reach for him, because he’s not coming cheap.

Me talking about my high stakes WCOFB draft.

Those in the Bronx better keep your head on a swivel. And straight toward the ground.

Brett Gardner stole 47 bases last year over just 477 at-bats, and thanks largely to 79 walks that led to a .383 OBP, he also scored 97 runs despite hitting ninth the majority of the time. While his true talent might be more of a .360 OBP kind of guy, he’s slated to bat first against right-handers this season, so his upside is that of a top-20 fantasy hitter. He has a strong 85% success rate on the base paths throughout his career, and since he’s one of the best defensive players in baseball, Gardner should be in the lineup virtually every day. Especially as a left-hander playing in Yankee Stadium, he’s fully capable of also adding something like eight homers and 60 RBI, which is a difference compared to the Juan Pierres and Michael Bourns of the world. I’ve personally been (over)drafting Jacoby Ellsbury, and I’m sure I’ll later be regretting it knowing I could have had Gardner much later.

Meet Rebecca Lanier, the world’s oldest woman.

Here’s a Q & A follow up to a recent Yahoo Friends & Family draft I was in. No matter how I try, looks like I’m stuck with the pic of me with a goat (on a related note, check out the third comment in the article).

While Daniel Hudson looked nothing like the pitcher he was in the minors when with the White Sox, he looked like an ace after getting traded to Arizona. There’s no doubt he was pitching over his head and like anyone with a 1.69 ERA, experienced plenty of good fortune (.241 BABIP, 7.0 HR/FB%), but Hudson also posted a 10.41 K/9 and 2.99 BB/9 in Triple-A as a 23-year-old, so he was a legitimate prospect. As an extreme fly ball pitcher calling Chase Field home, he’s going to surrender plenty of homers, but his WHIP should remain an asset, and it’s hard not to get overly excited about someone who just posted a 4.4:1 K:BB ratio as a rookie who will be pitching in the NL West. Go get him.

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By Dalton Del Don

Over the past three seasons, Alex Rodriguez has averaged 31.6 homers, 109.3 RBI and 12 steals while batting .286, which looks even better when you consider he’s also missed an average of 29 games per year over that span. He’s in the decline phase at age 35, but he also benefits from hitting in one of baseball’s best lineups and hitter’s parks. Consistently a top-five pick entering last season, why is Rodriguez now commonly falling out of round one altogether in fantasy drafts? The only difference I see is that he enters 2011 feeling healthier than he has in years. Maybe Evan Longoria goes nuts one of these years, but he hasn’t shown any real improvement over the past two campaigns and plays in a park that ranked as the toughest to hit in all of baseball last season, when he managed just 22 home runs. David Wright has been all over the map recently, and he struck out a career-high 161 times in 2010, so I’m not sure why ARod is typically the third third baseman off the board. Rodriguez is an inner circle Hall of Famer, and if he’s truly back to full health, a monster season should follow, even at his advanced age.

Things continue to get worse for Cleveland Cavalier fans.

Clayton Kershaw is my favorite pitcher to target this year. The big lefty is coming off a season in which he struck out 212 batters over 204.1 innings at age 22. Some may suggest he’s been lucky with a career BABIP of .284 and a HR/FB ratio of just 6.3%, and while that may very well regress some, it’s pretty safe to say he’s one of the toughest pitcher’s to hit in all of baseball. Over the last two years, Kershaw has held opposing batters to the lowest slugging percentage in MLB. As a fly ball pitcher, it’s not ideal the Dodgers project to field one of the worst outfield defenses in the game, but playing in the NL West certainly helps. Kershaw still walks too many batters, but his control went from 4.79/9 in 2008 to 3.57/9 last season. That number improved even more after the All-Star break, when he posted a 3.03 BB/9 ratio. Kershaw is the No. 4 fantasy pitcher on my board and don’t be surprised if he wins the Cy Young this season.

This guy is intense.

Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder are similar players typically going off the board around the same time in fantasy leagues. Both are coming off disappointing seasons, and each have a .279 career batting average. Citizens Bank Park isn’t as good of a hitter’s park as it’s generally considered, but it is more favorable than Miller Park. But Fielder is nearly five years younger than Howard, who is actually older than Albert Pujols. First base remains one of the deeper positions, but especially with the health concerns of Kendrys Morales and Justin Morneau, it tends to get thin quick. So who you got, Howard or Fielder?

I wouldn’t mind grabbing Ike Davis later if I miss out on the elite first basemen. He may be unlikely to ever become a superstar like the Mets’ organization envisions, but there’s plenty to like here. Davis should hit in the middle of New York’s lineup, and his .295/.362/.443 line against left-handers was impressive as a 23-year-old rookie last season. So were his 72 walks and his terrific defense. If you miss out on the first two tiers of first basemen, Davis is a fine fallback option who can be had much cheaper.

This is a pretty remarkable story about the first person in the U.S. to undergo a full face transplant.

Erik Bedard has allowed just two runs with 10 strikeouts over 10.2 innings this spring, and while the results are obviously meaningless in that sample, the important part is that he’s healthy. Of course, he hasn’t reached even 85 innings in any of the past three seasons, but that’s also why he’ll come at such a discount. A healthy Bedard, which may prove to be an oxymoron still, could really turn a nice profit. His stuff has always ranked among the best in baseball, and pitching in Safeco Park with a strong Seattle defense behind him helps as well. Few late round fliers offer as much upside as Bedard.

That’s one expensive dog.

Check out the results of the recent Yahoo Friends & Family draft I was in.

Pablo Sandoval saw his OPS drop by more than 200 points last season and ended the year as a bench player on a team that struggled with offense, as he was one of fantasy baseball’s biggest busts. His BABIP fell to .294 after finishing above .350 during each of his first two years in the league, and his weight and conditioning became a serious problem. So while normally it’s best to take offseason stories about players being in the best shape of their lives with a grain of salt, it was nice to see Sandoval got in shape over the winter. In fact, he dropped nearly 40 pounds and reduced his body fat from 30 percent to 19. It’s a big deal to help his flexibility, as Sandoval struggled mightily from the right side of the plate last season (.227/.284/.305). Regardless of his weight, plate discipline has always been a major issue for Sandoval. He swung at a greater percentage of pitches than any hitter in the National League last season, but then again, he hit .330 with a similar approach in 2009. Sandoval has impressed this spring, and remember, he’s one season removed from posting a .943 OPS as a 23-year-old, so he’s an excellent bounce back candidate.

This comedian bought a bunch of 800 numbers that were just one number off customer service lines for major companies, which is a pretty brilliant idea. Hilarity ensues.

While there’s admittedly some risk taking a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery who hasn’t been on the mound since 2009, Joe Nathan is one of my favorite closer targets this season. He may not pitch three days in a row right away, but he feels healthy now a full 13 months removed from surgery. Reports of his velocity have varied this spring, but for the most part, they have been positive, and Nathan is clearly still Minnesota’s guy in the ninth inning. He hasn’t had an ERA over 2.10 since 2005, nor one that even reached 3.00 since 2000, which is remarkable. Moreover, he’s now pitching in a park that was by far the toughest to homer in last season. Nathan should be close to the top of the second tier of closers.

Meet the Dance Assassin.

This year seems like a good time to buy Nick Markakis. His home runs have dropped each of the past three years, bottoming out at a measly 12 last season. Even during last year’s disappointing campaign, he managed a .370 OBP with 45 doubles. Markakis hits too many groundballs to ever be much more than a 20-homer guy, but more fly balls should leave the yard in 2011, as his HR/FB ratio last year was a career-low 6.1%. He’s a career .298 hitter also capable of swiping 10 bags, and he’ll be hitting either second or third in a revamped Baltimore lineup that suddenly looks pretty loaded. Still just 27 years old, it’s entirely possible Markakis’ best season of his career has yet to happen.

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By Dalton Del Don

Hanley Ramirez versus Troy Tulowitzki is a pretty good debate entering the year. Ramirez is coming off arguably the worst season of his career, yet he still ranked as the 17th most valuable hitter according to Baseball Monster, and that’s without adjusting for position scarcity. He saw his batting average drop 42 points from the prior year despite improving both his walk and K rates. His line-drive percentage was a career-low (16.3%), however, and there was nothing fluky about his power outage, as Ramirez suddenly turned into an extreme groundball hitter (1.56 GB/FB). The spike in groundballs dropped dramatically after the All-Star break, so it’s probably nothing to worry about moving forward, and Ramirez is still just 27 years old and supposedly worked harder during the offseason coming off a disappointing campaign. As for Tulowitzki, his numbers prorated over 150 games last season look like this: .315-33-109-117-14. Of course, he’s missed an average of 37.3 games over the past three seasons, so durability remains a question mark. But it’s a terrific set up playing half his games in Coors Field, and this is a player who hit 15 homers with 40 RBI during September. Normally I don’t shy away from being opinionated, but this is a debate in which I have no current answer for.

You can’t make this stuff up.

You can’t make this stuff up, part deux.

Andre Ethier was batting .392/.457/.744 with 11 homers and 38 RBI over 125 at-bats before he suffered a fractured pinkie in mid-May last season. The injury not only cost him 17 games, but it also affected his performance after he returned, as he hit .232 with just five home runs over his next 211 at-bats, later admitting he came back too soon. No one would ever suggest his blazing start was in any way sustainable, but the injury clearly suppressed Ethier’s overall production in 2010. During the FSTA draft in February, Ron Shandler selected Ethier in the second round (25th overall), and while I applaud aggressiveness and picks outside the box, it was surprising nevertheless. In shallow mixed leagues with daily transactions, Ethier could be an absolute monster if you use him exclusively against righties, but his fantasy upside is capped with no SB potential.

Ya, this is pretty awesome.

Fantastic read about a blind man who has essentially taught himself to see.

The Reds have more than a few intriguing pitchers and possibly the best depth of any starting rotation in baseball, and while Edinson Volquez has the most upside among the group, it wouldn’t surprise if Travis Wood finished as the team’s ace in 2011. He quietly posted a strong 3.3:1 K:BB ratio during his rookie season last year, when he gave up more than three runs in just two of his 17 starts. Wood’s ERA could see a bump this year as he’s likely to give up more home runs, but as an extreme fly ball pitcher with good control, his WHIP should remain in elite territory (as Gene McCaffrey astutely points out, big groundball pitchers are better in ERA and wins, whereas high fly ball pitchers are superior in WHIP and strikeouts. But the key is being extreme one way or the other). Wood is undervalued and is one of my favorite pitchers to target this season.

Dave Righetti makes Leo Mazzone look like a hack.

On a related note, here’s an excellent article on my boy Tim Lincecum.

It sounds like Neftali Feliz is officially going to become a starter in 2011, as he’s finally embracing the change in roles. It’s good news for Texas, and while some fantasy owners may now be short on saves, and the move makes his projection more volatile, Feliz could still easily return full value while throwing 100 or so more innings. As for the alternative candidates to close for the Rangers, your guess is as good as mine. There’s Alexi Ogando, Mark Lowe and Darren O’Day, although Ron Washington has publicly stated he’d prefer to look outside the organization for someone “proven,” even though Feliz entered last season with two career saves. As a result, no Rangers reliever is currently worth more than a late round flier.

Totally agree with this. RPI is archaic and needs to go.

This guy seems polite enough, but his ability to follow orders could improve.

LOB% is often viewed as a measure of luck, and while this can absolutely be true over a given sample (maybe even a full year), it’s a stat that generally should be considered far more of a skill. Here’s a list of the top-15 starting pitchers in LOB% over the past three seasons: Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Ted Lilly, Shaun Marcum, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, John Danks, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren and Tommy Hanson. Notice a trend? Part of this is because good pitchers allow fewer base runners than bad ones, which makes it fundamentally easier to prevent them from scoring. But it could also be argued it’s because they are simply superior. Conversely, Ricky Nolasco has the sixth-worst LOB% in baseball over the past three years, and while it’s entirely possible he turns in a strong 2011 season if a little luck turns his way combined with those always fine K:BB ratios, we also shouldn’t act surprised if Nolasco’s ERA once again disappoints compared to his peripherals.

You’ve got to respect someone who writes a blog about how pitchers are being too pampered these days and invokes the player Tommy John as a counter point, and he was in no way being ironical. And is he really equating “quality starts” with “newer statistics?” Two things that couldn’t be on more opposite spectrums. In summation: computers = bad, wins = most important stat for pitchers. There isn’t a lower hanging fruit than Murray Chass, but I give you this blog post anyway because I just can’t help myself.

I defy someone to come up with a song with better lyrics. Bob Dylan who?

I agree with Scott Pianowski (although not necessarily about my main man Jay Bruce!) in that “closers-in-waiting” have become overpriced, as their cost continues to rise while the extreme volatility of relievers remains the same. That said, Wilton Lopez is an intriguing option likely available with the last pick in most mixed leagues. He came out of nowhere last season and posted a remarkable 50:5 K:BB ratio over 67.0 innings. That walk rate (and one was intentional) was actually the seventh lowest in major league history (minimum 65.0 innings). Lopez had a 28:1 K:BB ratio after the All-Star break and is also an extreme groundball pitcher (55.7 GB%). Moreover, while Mark Melancon is another option, Lopez should be the top alternative to close, and he’s only behind a shaky Brandon Lyon, who has recorded a weak 1.79:1 K:BB ratio over the past two years.

A worthwhile read by Jimmy Kimmel regarding the horrible Japan tragedy, in a roundabout way.

Americans are stupid? How dare you. I say this was a sample size issue.

Mark Teixeira is coming off what is widely considered a disappointing season, which is hard to argue since his OPS dropped more than 100 points compared to 2009 and was the lowest of his career since his rookie year. But even while hitting just .256, he still managed 33 homers, 113 runs scored and 108 RBI. Batting in that ballpark and in that lineup is quite advantageous, as Teixeira came to the plate with the third most runners on base in MLB last season. It’s really nice when that’s your floor. Teixeira is a career .286 hitter, so it’s safe to expect a bounce back in batting average, which will in turn improve his counting stats. He’s worth a late first-round pick in fantasy drafts, and if you don’t get him there, look into trading for him in May, as Teixeira is a career .237/.345/.414 hitter in April.

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Via The New York Times.

By Dalton Del Don

I bought Rickie Weeks for $20 in LABR over the weekend, which is something I had absolutely no preconceived notion of doing so. In fact, I’d argue this is the wrong time to buy Weeks, who is coming off a career-year in which he played 130 games for the first time ever. But it seemed like everyone else in this particular league shared that sentiment, considering the other prices for second basemen (Dan Uggla $25, Martin Prado $21, Kelly Johnson $19, Neil Walker $18). Weeks is a big injury risk, but I had to go to $20 for a middle infielder who is coming off a season in which he produced this line: .269-29-112-83-11. He’s a career .253 hitter and has attempted just 19 stolen bases over the past two years (spanning 197 games), but Ken Macha is out, and new manager Ron Roenicke is encouraging more running, and Weeks has been successful on 82% of his SB attempts throughout his career, so he’s fully capable of swiping 20-25 bags in 2011. His strong walk rate should afford plenty of opportunities, and it’s also worth pointing out he’s averaged 112.5 runs scored per 162 games over his career. And last year’s 29 bombs were second only to Dan Uggla among second basemen.

I mean, that’s definitely Tim Lincecum, right?

Colby Rasmus is coming off a season in which he hit 23 homers with 12 steals (with an .859 OPS) over just 464 at-bats when he was 23 years old. Just because Tony LaRussa seemingly doesn’t like him doesn’t mean fantasy owners shouldn’t be salivating. After struggling mightily against southpaws during his rookie year in 2009 (.160/.219/.255), he more than held his own last season (.270/.349/.461). While Rasmus’ defense went from terrific in 2009 (9.1 UZR) to not so much last season (-6.5 UZR), he had the highest OPS among outfielders who primarily played center field in all of baseball. Rasmus finished with the 11th highest FB% in MLB last season, and among those ahead of him, only Jonny Gomes had a higher line drive percentage, and none hit fewer infield flies. With some natural progression, Rasmus could be a legitimate star both in fantasy and real life baseball as soon as this year.

Well, that’s one way to get a red card.

Chris Perez still walks too many batters, something that can really destroy a reliever working in small samples if he has a year with a poor hit rate. While it’s probably safe to say he was somewhat lucky to finish with a .182 BAA last season, Perez’s career BABIP is .246, so this is a pitcher who’s clearly difficult to hit. Over the last two months in 2010, his walk rate also improved dramatically (2.49 BB/9), and if that truly is a sign of things to come, he’ll be a top-five closer in 2011. Perez posted a 0.63 ERA and 0.87 WHIP after the All-Star break last season, as his fastball/slider combo can be deadly. Even if his control remains shaky and/or his luck turns south, there might not be a team in the league with fewer alternatives to close than Cleveland, so although he’s new to the position and just 25 years old, Perez’s job security is safe as well. He’s someone to target.

This guy really needed to take a shower.

Seth Smith entered the All-Star break last year with 12 homers, 36 runs scored and 38 RBI over just 202 at-bats with an .894 OPS. He slumped badly afterward, posting a .192/.267/.372 line over the second half. He admittedly benefits greatly from Coors Field (career OPS at home is .970 versus .713 on the road), but that matters zero to fantasy owners as long as he’s not traded. A former second round pick, Smith’s .256 BABIP last year should bounce back, and he’s hit 32 homers over the past two seasons in a platoon role. He’s going to finally get the chance to be a full-time player in 2011, and while his BA may suffer facing more lefties, there might not be a better outfielder to target in the later rounds. His strong defense should keep him in the lineup even through slumps, especially without any serious alternatives in Colorado’s system. Smith is one year removed from posting an .889 OPS, is entering his age 28 season and is now an everyday player for the Rockies. Go get him.

Meet Rifca Stanescu, who became a grandma at age 23.

Derek Holland and Mike Minor are two of my favorite targets who can typically be had in the later rounds of drafts. Neither is guaranteed a rotation spot at the moment, but if they pitch up to their capabilities, that won’t be an issue moving forward. Holland has solid velocity for a lefty and a nasty slider, and don’t forget he was well on his way to establishing himself in Texas’ rotation before an injury derailed his season last year. Forget the disastrous World Series appearance (when he walked all three hitters he faced, producing just one strike over that span), Holland could emerge as the Rangers’ second best starter as soon as 2011. Most scouts didn’t believe Minor had much upside when the Braves took him with the seventh pick in the 2009 draft, but the lefty soon saw an increase in velocity and dominated the minors as a 22-year-old last season, striking out 146 batters over 120.1 innings in Double and Triple-A. Minor promptly fanned 12 Cubs (while walking just one) during his third start in the big leagues and finished the year with a 43:11 K:BB ratio over 40.2 innings with Atlanta. Forget the ugly ERA (5.98) and WHIP (1.57), as he clearly held his own at the major league level. This year will be the last time you can get both Holland and Minor so cheap.

This is a pretty cool concept.

Daric Barton, Mitch Moreland, Matt LaPorta and Justin Smoak are all interesting options this year, especially in AL-only leagues. All four are likely valued similarly, although that doesn’t necessarily mean they bring the same thing to the table. Barton is the safest among this group, as he’s locked in as Oakland’s first baseman. Last year’s 12.1 UZR is almost certainly unsustainable, but his strong defense means he should be penciled into the lineup almost everyday. His fantastic OBP could even lead to 100 runs scored if Oakland’s offense improves as expected, and he even added seven steals last year. However, considering Barton hit just 10 homers while playing 159 games, his fantasy upside might also be the lowest. Moreland, on the other hand, hit nine homers over just 145 at-bats last year and is in a much better situation playing in Texas. Still, his track record is limited, and it’s not like Moreland was ever viewed as an elite prospect. Matt LaPorta has the best pedigree and probably the most upside of them all, but he still ha a lot to prove in the majors. As for Smoak, his fantasy value obviously took a big hit with the move from Texas to Seattle, but he was better than last year’s slash line suggests (.218/.307/.371). Smoak’s walk rate was strong (11.6%), and that .255 BABIP screams fluke with such a strong line drive rate (23.1%).

Our good friend Steve is at it again.

We can only hope this technology also translates to a scissor lift.

After a somewhat disappointing 2009, Cole Hamels got off to a rough start last season, finishing April with a 5.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. His fortunes started improving soon thereafter, however, culminating in a terrific 104:22 K:BB ratio over 96.2 innings after the All-Star break, resulting in a 2.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The sample size police will want me arrested, but few pitchers in all of baseball are capable of dominating a month like Hamels did in August, when he recorded a remarkable 48:4 K:BB ratio over 42.0 innings. After posting good but not great K rates in 2008 (7.76/9) and 2009 (7.81/9), he jumped all the way to 9.1 K/9 last season. That may regress some this year, but Hamels’ average fastball velocity was a career-high 92.0 mph last season, which was significantly better than 2009 (by 1.8 mph). He also began using a cutter for the first time in his career, which resulted in a career-best groundball rate (45.4%). And we all know his changeup is one of the best in baseball. Increasing strikeout and groundball rates simultaneously is a pretty good combination. Hamels is a dark horse candidate to win the CY Young in 2011.

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Looks like I’m going to start writing for the New York Times. This can’t last long.

By Dalton Del Don

Batting average is such a fluky stat. Everyone talks about how unpredictable pitching can be, but make no mistake, hitters fluctuate year-to-year an awful lot as well. Take Aaron Hill, who saw his average drop from .286 in 2009 all the way down to .205 last year. His K rate jumped some (from 14.4% to 16.1%), but it was relatively modest, and his walk rate actually saw a similar improvement. Hill’s .196 BABIP was the lowest mark in baseball over the past 30 years (it might actually be the lowest ever, as it was tedious looking at this year-by-year, so that’s as far back as I went, because I’m lazy. The second lowest was Dave Kingman’s .204 in 1986, and it’s interesting that Mark McGwire finished with the lowest BABIP three times over this span, with marks of .214, .223 and .214 from 1989-1991), which really is saying something. Of course, part of this was due to his approach, as his 54.2 FB% was remarkably high, but that also enabled him to hit 26 homers (while missing 24 games) even in a serious down year, and there’s every reason to believe plenty of bad luck was also involved. Hill is one season removed from hitting 36 homers with 103 runs scored and 108 RBI and is a career .270 hitter. Now is the time to buy him.

This incident is pretty horrifying.

As a collective culture, have we ever witnessed anything quite like what’s happening with Charlie Sheen right now? As oversaturated as it’s become, I still say he’s underrated. Winning!

If you prorate Coco Crisp’s numbers from last season over 150 games, you get this: .279-16-102-76-64. On a per game basis, that made him the 10th most valuable fantasy player according to Baseball Monster. Of course, there’s little chance he can ever again maintain such a pace, and he remains one of the bigger injury risks in all of baseball (he’s averaged 64 games missed over the past five seasons). But while last year may go down as his peak, he’s always been productive when on the field, including terrific defense. Crisp has been successful on a remarkable 85.2% of his stolen base attempts (115-of-135) over the past five years, and few guys with his blazing speed also offer decent pop like him. There are other negatives though, namely him playing in Oakland and also a recent arrest (quick side rant: it’s “drunken” driving, not drunk driving. Also, printing that someone “was arrested for DUI” is libelous. It should be noted “on charges of” or “suspicion of” but it’s done otherwise all the time). I digress. Anyway, Crisp has a cool name and is someone to target later in drafts.

In the word’s truest definition, it’s ironic Domino’s Pizza actually saved a life.

Hey, if my house nearly burned down, I’d probably kick back a few beers myself.

There are quite a few pitchers with huge K rates and poor command in baseball. But none might be as extreme as Brandon Morrow. He was shut down in September thanks to an innings limit, but if he had qualified, his K rate (10.95/9) would have led baseball by a wide margin (Tim Lincecum’s 9.79 was the highest). In fact, Morrow’s mark would have been the highest among qualified hurlers since 2004 – although the leader then was Oliver Perez (10.97), which certainly isn’t a desirable comp. Morrow also has extremely shaky control (4.06 BB/9), although he showed modest improvement over the second half last year. Even considering the numerous no-hitters, Morrow’s performance against the Rays on August 8 (complete game shutout in a 1-0 win with his only hit allowed being a single with two outs in the ninth and a 17:2 K:BB ratio) was the single most dominant pitching performance of 2010. He leaves little margin for error walking so many batters, especially in the A.L. East, but last year’s .342 BABIP is likely to come down, and if he makes further improvements on his walk rate, Morrow is the type of player who could win your fantasy league for you. His strikeout potential is second to none.

So I watched “Hall Pass” last weekend, and like most Farrelly brothers movies these days, it was both awful and hilarious at the same time. Definitely had its moments though. Speaking of, I can’t say I’d be against this sequel.

Pitching prospects to look at in A.L.-only leagues, speed round: Kyle Gibson looks like a potential future ace, especially with Target Field on his side, and he may get an opportunity this season, but it’s likely to come later in the year (he’s worth a stash in deep formats)…Kyle Drabek is a favorite to open the year in Toronto’s rotation, so he’s definitely worth a look. He was the main piece in the Roy Halladay trade, but he’s fighting an uphill battle pitching in the A.L. East…Teammate Zach Stewart is lesser known and will come much cheaper, and while he’s unlikely to open the year in the rotation, he could easily overtake the likes of Jesse Litsch and/or Marc Rzepcynski later on (worth a stash in deep formats)…Zach Britton could get an opportunity in Baltimore immediately. Strong groundball rate, but again, has to pitch in the A.L. East. Still worth a look…Michael Pineda is in a class by himself. He’s unlikely to be in Seattle right away, but he’s head and shoulders above the rest of this list and should be worth more in four months than the rest of them would be in a full season. Pineda is a special talent who’s possibly worth stashing even in deeper mixed leagues.

I really enjoyed this story about a news reporter breaking up a fight.

Over the past seven seasons, Aramis Ramirez has averaged 28 homers and 96 RBI while batting .295, and that’s with him missing 32 games per year. Of course, recently his health has become an even bigger question, as various injuries have forced him to miss 118 games over the past two years. He’s still managed 40 homers and 148 RBI over 206 games during that span, so his bat hasn’t slowed much after turning 30 years old. Although one aspect does jump out – strikeouts. Ramirez has always fanned far less than most sluggers throughout his career, but last year he struck out 90 times over 465 ABs. His career-high is 100 Ks, and that occurred in 2001 over 603 at-bats. Maybe the increased K rate has to do with age. Or his injuries. Or it was totally random. One thing is for sure – those strikeouts had nothing to do with last year’s extremely low .245 BABIP. Ramirez will always be an injury concern, and even more so the older he gets, but he’s always productive when on the field, so now might be the time to buy the .282 lifetime batter coming off a year in which he hit .241 and is viewed as on the downside of his career. Look at it this way – would you have preferred him to hit 25 homers with 83 RBI over 600 at-bats last year or over just 465 ABs (like he did)?

I swear, this wasn’t me (the evidence is that the guy was against Cutler, not that he wasn’t clothed).

This is pretty interesting.

There are a lot of strong projection systems out there, and Baseball Prospectus’ ranks among the best, but I don’t understand it pegging the Cardinals as favorites to win the NL Central even after Adam Wainwright’s season-ending injury. In fact, they still give them a 43.8% chance to make the playoffs, which seems extreme. Even before Wainwright’s injury, I would have given them a 33.3% chance to win their division (I actually had them finishing third, but it was a coin toss), and with the Braves and the N.L. West loser all strong WC contenders, not to mention the possibility of a team coming out of nowhere and surprising, I have to disagree, especially since St. Louis appeared to be built as a classic “stars and scrubs” team. I’ll never put anything past St. Louis’ management, but to me, the Cardinals are now pretty big underdogs in a suddenly deep N.L. Central.

This weekend I’ll be in Phoenix competing in LABR, and this year, it will actually be broadcast live, so check it out if you’re bored Sunday night.

In 2009, Jonathan Papelbon recorded 76 strikeouts and walked 24 batters over 68 innings, which resulted in a 1.85 ERA. Last year, he recorded 76 strikeouts and walked 28 batters over 67 innings, which resulted in a 3.90 ERA. ERA is a fickle stat to begin with, but this highlights just how ridiculous it can be with relievers. In fact, digging deeper, he gave up just two more homers last season compared to 2009, his BABIP wasn’t drastically different (.278 vs. 287), and he even improved his GB% quite a bit (26.7% vs. 38.3%). The only real difference in performance was the timeliness of his hits allowed, as his LOB% tumbled (89.3% vs. 68.7%), and batters hit .298 with RISP. Papelbon started throwing a split-fingered fastball more last season, but he was essentially the same pitcher he was in 2009, despite his ERA increasing by more than two full runs. He remains an easy top-five fantasy closer.

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By Dalton Del Don

Over the last two seasons while on the road, Adrian Gonzalez has hit .311 with 48 homers, 105 runs scored and 122 RBI over 161 games. It’s not exactly a secret him moving from the best pitcher’s park in Petco to one of the better hitter’s parks in Fenway should absolutely boost his numbers, not to mention the huge lineup upgrade in Boston. It wouldn’t surprise me even a little if Gonzalez finished 2011 as the No. 1 overall fantasy player. However, I worry about the offseason shoulder surgery, a procedure that can sometimes take some time to fully recover. If he were 100 percent healthy, he’d easily be the No. 2 player on my board. As is, he’s much safer as a late first round pick.

This guy takes diving in soccer to a new level.

A worthwhile read about the deteriorating movie industry.

Carlos Quentin has averaged 27.7 home runs over the past three seasons, which looks pretty enticing when you consider he’s averaged just 428 at-bats per year over that span. Of course, this also highlights just how injury-prone Quentin has become (he set a career-high by appearing in 131 games last season), and he’s also a career .251 hitter. Remarkably, .251 is also his career BABIP. Of course, it wouldn’t be wise to expect that to suddenly creep toward .300, especially since he’s such an extreme fly ball hitter, but since his contact rate isn’t so bad for a power hitter, he’s probably more likely to hit .260 this year than .240 like he has the past two seasons. Quentin is poor defensively and benefits greatly from his home park, but the power upside is very real. I’m buying.

A new form of carpooling.

I’m beginning to think Tommy Morrison’s perception of reality is out of whack.

Sticking with enigmas on the White Sox, Edwin Jackson appears to be the opposite of most pitchers, actually preferring to play in the American League. After a solid season in Detroit in 2009 (3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.3:1 K:BB), he flat out flopped in Arizona last year (4.0 BB/9), only to throw better than at any other point in his career after a midseason trade to Chicago (77:18 K:BB ratio over 75.0 innings). In fact, he had a three-start stretch in which he posted a 32:6 K:BB ratio and walked just one batter in five of his final seven starts. It’s hard to tell if a light switch really went on for the former top prospect, and it’s worth mentioning his schedule was rather easy after joining the White Sox, but he remains intriguing thanks to impressive fastball velocity, and he even saw his GB% jump by more than 10% last year compared to 2009 – all the way to 49.4%, which would be a key skill to maintain now pitching in U.S. Cellular Field.

Interesting stuff regarding life expectancy.

Seems everyone is talking about the new book “Forecasting,” and I found this review enlightening.

What C.J. Wilson did last year transitioning from the pen to a starter was impressive, and while he’s not going to require an especially high pick in 2011, he’s someone to treat cautiously. For one, he saw his workload increase from the year prior (which was a career-high) by a whopping 154.2 innings, which is almost unheard of. He did so while also walking the most batters in the American League, so it comes as no surprise he was awfully lucky in BABIP (.266) and HR/FB% (5.3%), the latter being even more fortunate considering his home park. While some of the same concerns can be said about teammate Colby Lewis, his underlying peripherals are much more impressive (8.78 K/9, 2.91 BB/9). As a fly ball pitcher in Texas, he’s likely to give up too many homers to post an elite ERA, but last season’s 1.19 WHIP looks for real. Many will want to see him do it again before becoming a true believer, so Lewis looks like an undervalued commodity.

As if the Oakland Coliseum wasn’t enough of a dump as is.

Good stuff regarding quarterbacks and sacks taken (although the headline is misleading, since Ben Roethlisberger was suspended the first four games of the season).

Jered Weaver is an interesting case entering 2011, as his previous career-high K rate was 7.68/9 before jumping all the way to 9.35/9 last season. In fact, he led all of baseball with 233 strikeouts, while also posting a career best walk rate (2.17/9). He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, so while last year’s BABIP (.276) may rise some, it’s worth noting his career mark is .283, so a major correction there isn’t necessarily in store. But can he maintain that strikeout rate, or something close to it? If you believe so, he arguably should be treated as a top-three fantasy starter, although he certainly won’t cost as much. And starting off last year’s baseline, he could regress some and still be among the 10-15 most valuable fantasy starters. It just depends how much you believe in such an increase in performance during a career-year that occurred during Weaver’s fifth season in the league.

Video game urinals? Video game urinals.

Finally watched the series finale of “Friday Night Lights,” and I must say, the last season could arguably be its best. Amazing how a show could remain so terrific despite changing 80% of its cast throughout its running. It’s too bad such quality has been watched by so few.

Before suffering a broken foot last year, Dustin Pedroia was quietly having possibly the most productive season of his career. If you projected his stats over just 150 games, he was on pace to finish with this line: .288-24-106-82-18. He seemed to consciously sacrifice strikeouts (his 12.6 K% was still strong, but his previous high was 8.1%) in order to add power (his .205 ISO was by far a career-high). Chase Utley’s slugging percentage has dropped each of the past three seasons (it’s important to note he actually hit more groundballs than fly balls last year) and an already injury-prone player (he consistently leads MLB in hit by pitch) is quite a risk now at age 32 playing such a vulnerable position on the diamond. Robinson Cano is great (and his durability has been impressive) but just realize if Pedroia hadn’t gone down last season, their stats would have been close to equal, mostly because of the stolen base discrepancy (for that matter, Rickie Weeks and Ian Kinsler are the two second basemen with the most fantasy upside, but their even riskier as far as health is concerned), and it’s also worth pointing out Pedroia’s career BA (.305) is right in line with Cano’s (.309). All that said, while I was ready to go all contrarian and call Pedroia my No. 1 second baseman for 2011, this report regarding the status of his foot is no doubt disconcerting.

Did anyone check out Jay Mariotti on Jason Whitlock’s podcast? Here are some highlights: Mariotti showed zero contrition for his arrest, named Dan Shaughnessy and Skip Bayless among his two favorite writers, doesn’t read Bill Simmons because his articles are too long (“who has the time?”), never heard of A.J. Daulerio, didn’t directly address what Whitlock was asking him in at least half his responses because he apparently didn’t understand the questioning, has never seen “The Wire” (and more importantly, it was unclear if he had ever even heard of the show) and vehemently denied having a “shtick” on “Around The Horn” – although after hearing the podcast, that last part might be true, and that really was him being his true self all along. This is not a good thing.

I’ve reached for younger players with upside less and less over recent years, finding more value in veterans, but there are two especially intriguing hitters I’d be willing to buy the hype and pay the price tag for this year, and they are Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton. And the more I look into it, the more I’m starting to prefer the latter, and that’s without considering Stanton’s current ADP is 100 picks lower. Heyward has more SB potential and much better plate discipline, and it’s possible that thumb injury really affected last year’s stats, which were still quite impressive for a 20-year-old, but it doesn’t look like a fluke he finished with four fewer homers than Stanton despite getting 161 more at-bats. Heyward actually posted a 2.03 GB/FB ratio last season, which translated into a 55.1 GB%, which was the seventh highest in baseball. To put that into perspective, the six players above him COMBINED for 24 home runs. There’s no doubt Stanton is a BA risk with all those Ks, but at 6-5, 233 lbs, he’s already one of the strongest players in major league baseball, so I’m a believer in his HR/FB% (22.9). That he hit so poorly at home (.182/.272/.327) and against left-handers (.218/.253/.391) suggests there’s significant room for improvement too. Both Stanton and Heyward could appear in a dozen All-Star games before all is said and done, but the former’s fantasy value is much closer to the latter’s than the current ADP suggests.

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By Dalton Del Don

Jay Bruce is hardly a sleeper, but his allure as baseball’s best prospect is definitely in the rearview mirror, as injuries have been a problem throughout his young career, and he’s (rightfully) perceived as a batting average risk thanks to a high strikeout rate. However, his upside remains immense. Bruce clubbed a whopping 15 homers over his final 105 ABs last season and suddenly started hitting southpaws (he posted an .899 OPS versus left-handers after finishing with .562 and .643 marks against them over his first two years in the league, respectively). Bruce’s numbers have been greatly helped by his home park, and while that makes him less valuable in real life, it counts all the same in fantasy terms. Over the first three seasons of their careers, Evan Longoria has averaged one homer every 19.6 at-bats compared to Bruce’s one HR per 18.6. Of course, I’m not suggesting anyone draft Bruce ahead of Longoria, but it’s also worth noting the former enters this season still just 23 years old. Bruce, who is also capable of contributing 10 steals or so and should move up in the lineup while entering his prime, is one of my favorite prop bets to lead the Senior Circuit in homers in 2011.

If I’m ever robbed, I can only hope it’s by this polite gentleman.

If I’m ever woken up on the subway, I can only hope it’s not by this.

Ben Zobrist went from being a legitimate MVP candidate in 2009 (he actually led the American League in WAR, but that’s only because we haven’t developed a proper way to credit catching, as Joe Mauer was clearly the league’s most valuable player) to being a huge bust last season. Put differently, he saw his OPS drop from .948 to .699. His true talent almost certainly lies somewhere in between, but that’s a bit obvious, so the real question is which extreme does it lie closer to. Zobrist hit an anemic .177 after last year’s All-Star break, but that was accompanied by a 44:41 K:BB ratio, suggesting plenty of bad luck was involved. All along he remained effective defensively and on the base paths (he was successful on 24 of 27 SB attempts), and as I’ve said before, it’s highly unlikely Tropicana Field plays as the toughest hitter’s park in baseball again like it did last season. Thanks to a strong walk rate, even during his disastrous campaign in 2010, he was still able to post a .346 OBP, so he should find himself penciled into the lineup one way or another in 2011. Since he’ll be second base eligible in fantasy leagues, he’s an excellent “last year’s bum” target.

Arcade Fire winning Best Album at the Grammy’s was pretty cool, but by far the best music news of the week was the revelation of a new Radiohead being released Saturday. I’m struggling to come up with anything that would make me happier.

Speaking of the Grammy’s – I post this, but I feel bad for doing so.

Can someone help explain why David Ortiz’s ADP is 197.6? After missing significant time in 2008, burning plenty of fantasy owners who spent a top pick on him in the process, he then followed that up by batting .238 in 2009 and then subsequently posted a .143/.238/.286 line last April, so I can understand why some wrote him off. However, despite the hideous first month last season, Ortiz still finished with a .270-32-86-102 line (while missing 17 games), and is it unreasonable to at least partially attribute his poor 2009 to the prior year’s wrist injury? There’s no doubt Big Papi’s best days are behind him, his K rate continues to climb, he struggles mightily against lefties (I actually prefer players with huge splits like this in daily formats), and selecting a DH certainly hurts your flexibility, but he’s also 35 years old, not 40. And he still has the benefits of Fenway Park and a terrific lineup, and he’ll also be playing for a new contract this year (whatever that’s worth). As usual, old, boring veterans remain the market inefficiency in fantasy baseball. Speaking of which, if anyone wants to take a Vladimir Guerrero (whose ADP is currently 86.5) vs. Ortiz bet, I’m down.

This looks perfectly safe.

The “Ghost Ride” guy from above is lucky he wasn’t on this highway.

I don’t have a problem with Billy Butler; after all, he’s a 24-year-old who has belted 96 doubles over the past two seasons and posted a .388 OBP while walking nearly as many times as he struck out in 2010. This article also makes a pretty compelling case in his favor, and it wouldn’t shock me if he won a batting title as soon as this season. However, and maybe this has just occurred in those I’ve participated in, he’s still getting drafted awfully aggressively in fantasy leagues for someone lacking power. He might be able to reach 20-25 homers, but even that’s pretty difficult for someone who hits so many grounders (1.40 GB/FB ratio in his career). Moreover, playing in Kansas City immediately puts him at a disadvantage. He played in 158 games last season, hit .318 and got on base nearly 39% of the time, yet that resulted in just 77 runs scored and 78 RBI despite batting in the middle of the lineup.

Lengthy but an extremely interesting read regarding the lottery and how to beat it.

Did anyone catch the latest “HBO: Real Sports?” I recommend it. Good God, Sean Salisbury looks like a completely different human being. And I love how it didn’t take but five seconds before Mike Tyson vaguely threatened to beat up the interviewer. And I could only wish there was something in life that made me half as happy as pigeons do him.

To be fair, it’s probably healthier than the Meat Lovers Skillet.

Seems to me the naming of Joel Hanrahan as Pittsburgh’s closer was something of a no-brainer. Evan Meek was a former 12th round pick who essentially came out of nowhere last season and posted a 2.14 ERA despite a 2.3:1 K:BB ratio (thanks to a .224 BABIP), while Hanrahan, a former second round pick, struck out 100 batters over 69.2 innings while also flashing a better walk rate. Meek could remain a useful pitcher – his ability to induce groundballs is impressive, and he also saw his average fastball velocity rise to a career-high 95.1 mph last season, but it’s usually safest to bet on skill, and it’s hard not to conclude Hanrahan is the frontrunner here. Clearly inferior pitchers (closers) will be taken ahead of him on draft day.

This is downright embarrassing (and why is that guy buying vowels?).

I’d hate to be the driver following this guy.

I’m a big Carlos Gonzalez fan, so it pains me to say he’s going too early for my taste in 2011. This may be anecdotal (and frankly, I’m far too lazy to do the legwork), but I’m convinced drafting corner infielders early is the way to go (since this is the time to make the safest picks). Pitchers, middle infielders and yes, outfielders are just so much more volatile. Regarding CarGo, it’s easy to point to his .384 BABIP and declare regression, but to be more specific, his xBABIP compared to his real BABIP was the eighth biggest discrepancy in baseball, so while we can all acknowledge he’s easily capable of finishing with a .350 or so hit rate, last year’s number was seriously unsustainable. He can hit lefties, has the advantage of playing in Coors Field and actually got better as last season progressed (1.091 OPS after the ASB). I’m not going to call CarGo a bust, by any means, and while it was impressive to see him play through so many injuries last season, he’s still a health risk moving forward, and it’s quite a gamble paying for his 2010 stats this year.

The takeoff was cool, but I’m more interested in seeing the landing.

People will do anything to get me to link to them in my articles these days.

Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, there’s no question about that. Looking past his bat, he’s durable, seemingly a nice guy, terrific defensively and by most accounts, even the best baserunner in MLB. And if the reports are true, the Cardinals’ offer was insulting. That said, can we please move past this issue? There will be more than enough time to beat a dead horse over his contract situation, you know, when he actually becomes a free agent at the end of the season (especially with no NFL around, sadly. Seriously, I’m going to go in a clinical depression then. Don’t think I’m exaggerating).

Hey look, a real life Veronica Corningstone.

R.I.P. Uncle Leo.

This guy is the man.

I can appreciate the skepticism that still seems to surround Francisco Liriano (not only by fantasy owners but apparently by Twins management as well), since he remains an injury risk throwing so many sliders (33.8% last year was third most in MLB), and his 3.62 ERA wasn’t exactly elite despite allowing a crazy low 6.3 HR/FB%. In fact, before his last three starts, he had somehow managed to surrender just four home runs over 178.1 innings. However, there’s obviously quite a bit to like as well, as Liriano’s 9.4 K/9 ratio ranked fifth best in baseball (and his BB/9 was markedly better than the four pitchers in front of him in the category), and it’s safe to declare his .331 BABIP prevented him from getting more Cy Young votes (and while there are some changing parts in 2011, this looks even more unlucky when you consider the Twins finished with the sixth best team UZR in baseball last year). Only Roy Halladay’s xFIP (2.92) was better than Liriano’s (3.06) in 2010. Liriano’s average fastball velocity increased two full mph (from 91.7 to 93.7) last year compared to 2009, and his slider was easily the best in baseball (19.0 runs above average). He also induced an impressive 1.96 GB/FB ratio, something rare for such a strikeout pitcher, and while his HR/FB rate is sure to rise in 2011, it certainly doesn’t hurt that Target Field played as by far the toughest park to homer in last year (it’s just one year of data, but it could regress significantly and still be the toughest, and Liriano actually allowed twice as many homers at home than on the road last season). There are currently 22 pitchers with a higher ADP than Liriano, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

By Dalton Del Don

I’d happily draft Adrian Beltre this year. Many are skeptical about him coming off a contract year, which keeps his price tag down despite just producing a season in which Baseball Monster pegged him as the 14th most valuable hitter in fantasy baseball. In fact, I was able to grab him essentially in the sixth round of the 13-team FSTA draft. Beltre is never going to match his 2004 season, but I’m of the mind Seattle hurt his production far more than him magically wanting to perform whenever his contract is up (what happened in 2009?). His terrific defense makes him a better real life player than in fantasy, but it’s possible Beltre runs more in 2011 (he has an 84% success rate over the past four years, and Texas had far more stolen base attempts than Boston last season). Fenway Park benefits hitters, and there’s no doubt it was a big reason why Beltre led baseball in doubles last year, but it’s also an environment that has suppressed home runs each of the past seven seasons. Texas is an even better hitter’s park and by a significant margin when it comes to homers. Third base gets thin real quick after the big four are off the board, and I’d personally feel more comfortable taking Beltre over Jose Bautista. I understand the trepidation of paying for last year’s stats (that came during a contract year), but at his current cost, it doesn’t appear you’ll have to.

This is a bit on the long side (to say the least), but I found it well worth the time investment.

This ranks up there among the best clips I’ve seen. That “granny” is 75 years old by the way.

At age 25, Delmon Young is certainly still in a growth phase, but I’d let someone else draft him in 2011. It was nice to see him cut down the strikeouts last year, but can you really bank on another .355 BA with RISP? Maybe he settles into a Carlos Lee type career, racking up RBI by virtue of taking few walks and constantly putting the ball in play despite mediocre power, but his home park played as by far the toughest place to homer in last season (yes, it’s just one year of data). Some projected 20 SB potential for Young, but he’s been caught more times (nine) than he’s been successful (seven) over the past two years. RBI is a fickle stat, and Young actually posted his lowest line drive percentage of his career last season and still hits more groundballs than fly balls. I’d stay away.

Forget the new rage of the P90X, this workout is much more effective.

Jordan Zimmermann has a career ERA of 4.71, but that’s countered by a 3:1 K:BB ratio and an 8.75 K/9 mark. He accrued the impressive latter two while pitching as a rookie and then later returning from Tommy John surgery. His innings may be limited in 2011, but he should enter 100 percent healthy now more than a year removed from the TJ procedure. His fastball, slider and curve all project as potential plus pitches. His current ADP is a ridiculous 281, so I can’t think of a better late round flier.

Awesome stuff by Henry Abbott regarding Kobe Bryant and clutchness.

Another pitcher I find generally undervalued is Ted Lilly. His WHIP over the past two seasons is 1.07, a category that’s wholly underrated and for the most part, more reliable than ERA on a year-to-year basis. His fastball velocity continued to slip last season, but that could improve a tick now further removed from shoulder surgery, and it’s not like it affected his performance last season anyway, as he posted a 77:15 K:BB ratio over 76.2 innings after getting traded to the Dodgers. His return to L.A. is terrific news for his fantasy value, as that stadium should suppress his tendencies to give up the long ball, although admittedly, L.A.’s poor outfield defense isn’t ideal for a fly ball pitcher. Still, he’s in baseball’s weakest division for hitting and should be viewed as a top-30 fantasy starter.

This clip is pretty funny, but I’m sorry, I’m skeptical by nature – I personally think it’s fake/staged.

Some view the catcher position as having an obvious top-four, but to me, Carlos Santana clearly belongs in tier one. In fact, I could see ranking him as high as No. 1, frankly, and we all know he certainly won’t cost that price. Of course, he’s riskier than the others, with just a 150 AB sample in the majors and coming off knee surgery, but this is a guy who walked more times (37) than he struck out (29) as a rookie. He even stole nine bases between the majors and Triple-A over just 103 games. Santana’s .868 OPS would have ranked second among catchers had he qualified and was just three points behind Joe Mauer, who has less power upside and Target Field to deal with. For the most part, I believe you find the best value in fantasy baseball these days with old, boring veterans, but this is one youngster I’d pay for. Manny Acta has already stated he plans on giving Santana some starts at first base, and DH Travis Hafner typically needs plenty of rest as well, so Santana should get all the at-bats he can handle. I’d personally take him over Victor Martinez.

This is a few weeks old by now, but still, a must-watch for gamblers.

I believe in David Price’s talent, and he could easily improve as a pitcher this year at just 25 years old, but he’s going to have to in a pretty significant way not to have major regression. Few pitchers’ true talent level is a 2.72 ERA like he posted in 2010, but that number becomes even crazier when you consider his K:BB ratio was so mediocre (2.38:1). Just 6.5% of his fly balls left the yard, and you simply can’t count on Tropicana Field playing as baseball’s best pitcher’s park like it did last season. I don’t believe in the Verducci Effect, but it’s also worth noting he threw 58.2 more innings last season than his previous career-high. Price projects as a true No. 1 starter down the road, but last year’s peripherals strongly suggest a decent sized correction coming beforehand, and pitching in the AL East is such a disadvantage.

I’ll post this one without commentary.

If Brian Wilson appears on a talk show, I’m going to post it.

One starter I prefer to Price is Yovani Gallardo, who posted a significantly better K rate (9.73 compared to 8.11) last season and only a slighter worse BB/9 ratio (3.65 compared to 3.41). With more than 500 innings under his belt in MLB, Gallardo is also a better candidate to take the leap in 2011. In fact, he’s already on his way, as he walked 19 fewer batters last season in the same amount of innings compared to 2009. If he exhibits similar improvement this season, a Cy Young award could be in store. And to think, he’s not even Milwaukee’s best pitcher.

This was made by a “visionary filmmaker.”

Actually, this trailer might be equally as bizarre.

Steals look plentiful entering the year and are often available late, but that also means you’ll have to grab at least two speed guys to compete in the category. Guys like Brett Gardner and Rajai Davis could prove to be bargains, but in a vacuum, it’s better to address that category at the middle infield position. This may seem obvious, but think about it. I’d rather a sinkhole in HRs and RBI from Chone Figgins at second base than an outfield spot that’s far deeper. Put differently, where would a player like Bobby Abreu be ranked as a second baseman? Around top-seven, at minimum, right?

Yeah, this is normal.

The latest UFC event was pretty incredible. Jon “Bones” Jones has been a favorite of mine for a while. It’s not a stretch to call him one of the better fighters in the world right now. And while it was great entertainment to see him get offered a title fight in the ring right afterward (thanks to a Rashad Evans injury), it’s pretty funny to see him as a -200 favorite having to get in the ring again just six weeks from now against the title holder. And while the Anderson Silva fight literally produced zero action over the first 2.5 minutes (and by literally I mean not a single punch/kick was thrown), his knockout was admittedly pretty epic. Made more so by the fact it was taught to him by Steven Seagal! I also appreciated Silva’s interview after the victory, when he talked for more than two full minutes straight while relying on a translator.

This would have been the funniest commercial during the Super Bowl, but that’s not exactly a high bar to clear these days.

For some reason, I’ve become something of a B.J. Upton apologist over the years, but I still say he’s undervalued. Considered a huge disappointment last season, the guy hit 18 homers and stole 42 bags. His SB percentage has improved each of the past three years, and while it’s discouraging his K rate continues to climb, last season was the first of Upton’s career in which he hit more fly balls than grounders, an excellent sign for the future. Moreover, he had to deal with a home stadium that made Petco look hitter friendly last year, an occurrence unlikely to repeat in 2011. That .237 BA is a killer in a category that’s often overlooked, but he’s more likely to hit a more palpable .260-.270 this season. A 20 homer, 50 steal season isn’t out of the question.

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