The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Mark Teixeira has hit .252 over the past two seasons, and since he doesn’t run, it’s easy to consider him overrated as a three-category player who will likely cost a second round pick (ADP: 27.25). I disagree and consider him a top-15 fantasy player. During his three years in New York, he’s averaged 37 homers, 114 RBI and 102 runs scored. The latter shouldn’t be overlooked, as that’s strong contribution in an underrated category, especially from a first baseman. It’s possible opponents’ shifts will continue to drive down his batting average, but I’d personally feel comfortable putting his over/under at his career line of .281 for 2012. For what it’s worth, his xBABIP was 57 points lower than his actual hit rate last season. Just because he was unlucky on balls in play the last two years doesn’t mean he’s “due” to receive good fortune this season, but it’s worth noting extreme flyball hitters’ batting averages fluctuate far more than groundball hitters, and Teixeira’s career line-drive percentage is a strong 20.9. And don’t forget, Yankee Stadium has an MLB-high 147 home run index for LHB since it opened, so as a switch-hitter who crushes lefties, a 45-homer type season can’t be ruled out.

When it comes to bull riding, this guy thinks eight seconds is kid’s play.

I’m sure most of you have seen this by now, but if not, this is easily my favorite restaurant review ever.

This own goal is among the craziest I’ve ever seen.

I’m not sure what to make of Brandon Morrow. His 10.19 K/9 rate led the American League last season, but that came with a 4.72 ERA (he finished with a 4.49 ERA the year before despite a 10.95 K/9). You don’t need to look up his FIP to come to the conclusion it’s been far lower than his ERA each of those past two campaigns. It’s also worth noting improved command led to a 1.29 WHIP last season, which was far better than his career mark (1.38). While these underlying peripherals and remarkable strikeout ability may portend huge things to come, at some point, there has to be a concern he’s Ricky Nolasco 2.0. In 2010, Morrow held hitters to a .222/.325/.293 line with the bases empty compared to .280/.351/.395 with runners on. Last year it was .217/.292./.307 compared to .267/.346/.393, so there’s real concern he becomes a much worse pitcher out of the stretch. In fact, Morrow induced just one GIDP all of last season! Read that again. Of course, that’s just a two year sample, and his career LOB% is actually 70.8, which is league average. After posting baseball’s second-highest SwStr% (11.5) last season, it’s clear Morrow has a ton of upside, but it sure would be nice if he figured out how to stop allowing so many runs while simultaneously missing so many bats.

This monkey “attack” is pretty awesome.

In 911 call, this mother calmly reported, “I think I left my child at Chuck E. Cheese last night.”

This footage of a bus driver smashing into a biker is pretty horrifying.

Billy Butler probably has an over/under of around 20 homers this season, and he’s likely only DH-eligible in most leagues. He’s also averaged just 76 runs scored over the past three seasons, despite missing a total of 10 games over that span, partially because of poor teammates but also because he’s one of the slower runners in baseball. While it may hurt his chances of winning a batting title like I expect him to one of these years (he or Howie Kendrick will one day, I swear), it’s interesting just how different his approach at the plate was before and after the All-Star break last season. Entering the ASB, Butler had a 43:49 K:BB ratio with a .415 slugging percentage. Afterward, he posted a 52:17 K:BB ratio with a .511 SLG. Yes, SSS caveats apply, but that’s a pretty drastic change at a fundamental level. Here were his GB/FB rates over the final five months of last season: 2.09, 2.44, 1.48, 0.78, 0.97. Again, if he continues this new approach, a lower BA may follow, but after hitting 13 homers over his final 70 games last season, a run at 30 bombs in 2012 may not be out of the question.

It’s not often you see pranks pulled on cops, but here’s one.

Speaking of pranks, this one involves people buying meat that’s fresher than usual.

We interrupt this report on performing breast self-exams to watch Peyton Manning get off an airplane.

Derek Holland has the tough task of pitching his home games in Texas, but he posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and an 80:26 K:BB ratio over 88.1 innings after the All-Star break last season and has the upside to finish as a top-15 fantasy starter this year. He saw his average fastball velocity rise from 92.1 mph in 2010 to 94.2 mph in 2011, which is a significant leap. In fact, only David Price had a faster average among all left-handers in baseball. Holland is highly talented and could easily breakout and provide a huge profit based on where he’s going in most drafts.

I like to think of myself as something of a foodie, and during my recent trip to Phoenix for LABR, I ate at both Pizzeria Bianco and Matt’s Big Breakfast, but I also must admit I tried Taco Bell’s new Doritos taco the day it came out. The former were both 100% legit, but I’ll also concede the latter wasn’t the worst either, although I hate myself for saying that.

During the aforementioned LABR trip, I read Chuck Klosterman’s “The Visible Man,” and although the ending was disappointing, I still can’t recommend it enough. Maybe I’m the perfect target audience as someone who graduated with a degree in psychology and enjoys Klosterman’s take on pop culture, but I’m also not a big fan of science fiction, which is also a bit at play here. To me, this was the true definition of a page-turner.

Chris Young has a career .240 batting average, but for someone who’s averaged 24 homers and 25 steals over the past two seasons, his ADP (33) among outfielders seems low. While it’s tough to distinguish ex post facto excuses versus real causation that we didn’t know about at the time, Young apparently played through a pretty serious ligament injury to his thumb over the second half of last year, which is certainly backed up by his post ASB numbers (.193/.329/.311). While playing hurt and losing seven homers from the season prior, Young actually had more extra-base hits in 2012 compared to 2011 and both his K% and BB% improved, and only Coors Field is a better hitters’ park in the National League than Chase Field (especially for right-handed batters). You won’t find someone who could approach 30/30 cheaper at draft tables.

I have no idea if this absurd exchange on Facebook is real, but I choose to believe it is.

Goat seen eating pizza at Midtown restaurant.

This fighter actually knocked himself out.

I’m all for targeting boring veterans in fantasy baseball, and I doubt Michael Young will be aggressively drafted this year, but caution still needs to be advised. Obviously, his .338 BA should be expected to drop around 35 points, and while he’ll continue to benefit from his home park and Texas’ lineup, realize the 35-year-old hit just 11 home runs last year, including only three after the All-Star break, as he hits so few balls in the air (26.5 FB%). The discrepancy between his 11 HRs and 106 RBI is the key here, as not only did Young benefit from coming to the plate with an abnormal amount of baserunners on last season, he went from hitting .297 with the bases empty to .383 with runners on. Almost all hitters perform better with runners on, but as Bill James states in his recent Handbook, “it’s like a perfect storm, a freakish combination of events.” James goes further and posts a study that reveals almost always there’s a huge regression in performance after such a rare season occurs. Young isn’t likely to be a total bust this year, but he could easily add five homers to his tally and lose 30 RBI from last season’s total.

Man seriously injured by gas explosion.

This chainsaw wielding maniac deserved his fate.

This footage is tough to watch, and among my friends the conclusion seems to be equal on both sides, but the one thing not in dispute is that it’s crazy.

Scott Baker was quietly one of the better pitchers in baseball last season before getting shut down, posting a 3.14 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a 123:32 K:BB ratio over 134.2 innings. He’s typically been a big help in WHIP as an extreme flyball pitcher, finishing with a mark below 1.20 in three of his past four years, and with that profile, it’s safe to expect closer numbers to last year than the season prior with the way Target Field has played, assuming he’s healthy. Since its inception, only Kauffman Stadium (remember this prospective Eric Hosmar and Alex Gordon owners) has a lower HR Index for LHB than Target Field (68). Baker was clearly hurting at the end of last season, and if rest healed the problem, which he claims, he could be a steal in fantasy leagues. Baker had a 3.8 K:BB ratio, which was better than CC Sabathia, and his flyball tendencies are a perfect fit for his home park.

Follow me on Twitter.


Posted

in

by

Tags:

Comments

8 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Poincare Avatar
    Poincare

    The Scoop is back! Can baseball season be far behind? How are you my friend? I just wanted to put in my two cents while your content is still fresh in my mind.

    Regarding Mark Teixeira, I agree with you up to a point but I still don’t expect him to be on any of my fantasy teams this season. And I’ll definitely take the under .281 in 2012 for any thing or amount you wish to wager.

    My short take on Brandon Morrow is that he is a one-category (strikeouts) player. I’ve been avoiding him on my teams for a couple of years now because I think he is much better than even money hurt your ERA and WHIP. Yes, I could see him suddenly figuring it out and improving significantly; he is quite talented. But I’m not ready to bet on it just yet.

    I would urge you to exercise some caution with Derek Holland in 2012 for the following reason. He pitched 198 innings last season. That isn’t a huge load by any means, but it was the first time in his professional career that he pitched anything close to 200 innings in a single season. His career high in the minors was 150.2 innings and in the majors it was 138.1 innings. I clearly remember reading over 20 years ago in The Baseball Sabrmetric (the successor to the Bill James Baseball Abstract series) that most starting pitchers coming off their first season of 200 IP decline the following season while experiencing some physical ailments in the process. I wish I had some more specific data, but unfortunately I don’t. I still very much believe that starting pitchers coming off their first 200 inning season are poor bets.

    I completely agree with you on Chris Young. I just do not understand why B.J. Upton goes so much earlier and for so much more in most drafts. Their skills are more than comparable. Upton will likely steal about 15 more bases, but Young will likely out homer Upton by at least 5 and possibly more than 10. I don’t think 15 stolen bases is worth the difference in their average draft positions.

    For whatever reason, I’ve always liked Scott Baker as a pitcher. Actually I know the reason, it’s his K/BB ratio. Baker has been in the Twins rotation for five (actually 5 and a half) seasons now. His K/BB ratios the past five seasons are 3.52, 3.36, 3.38, 3.44, and 3.84. His ERAs during same five seasons, however, are 4.26, 3.45, 4.37, 4.49, and 3.14. Doesn’t the excellent mark last season look like a bit of an outlier? Also, his IP counts the past five seasons are 143.2, 172.1, 200, 170.1, and 134.2 which doesn’t inspire confidence in me that he can handle being a regular in the rotation for the entire season. I’d put the over/under on Scott Baker’s IP this season at about 162. I still genuinely like Scott Baker as a pitcher, but I just don’t see him getting through 2012 without missing at least one month with injuries.

  2. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    Im willing to give Morrow one more chance. His upside is so large that it warrants at least that much.
    The pissing pranks are hilarious.
    Agreed on Chris Young. His downside is 20-20 with great upside, he shouldn’t be so cheap despite his BA drain.
    The shooting video was disturbing for a number of reasons. Chief among them was the verbal reaction to the guys filming it. Talk about desensitized…
    In one of your posts elsewhere you mentioned a recent draft you did where you got S. Casilla and not S. Romo because it was Casilla who got the saves last year when Wilson was injured. I thought that Romo was just coming back from some injury at that time, and that was why Casilla got the saves. I defer to your judgement because I don’t follow SF very close, but I would love a comment on that. Despite his recent good news, it seems like Wilson is still at least a little suspect.

  3. matt Avatar
    matt

    Dude, half your links are of people dying! Mix in a funny cat clip every now and then.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Poincare – Good feedback. It’s a fair point about caution with Holland. Also, don’t forget he threw another 24 innings in the postseason last year. Regarding Baker, remember only the last two years has he called the best pitcher’s park in the AL home. Then again, in one of those two years his ERA again disappointed, especially compared to the nice K:BB ratio. He definitely has a little Nolasco in him. And more worrisome is the recent elbow news after I wrote this. I’m definitely concerned about his health now.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Donald – Four of Casilla’s saves last year came from Sept 14 on. Romo was perfectly healthy then. In fact, he picked up a hold during three of those four games. Also, Romo went in that auction (for $6 in fact). I got Casilla in round two of the reserve draft, which is a huge difference.

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Matt – I’ll try, but I’m pretty morbid.

  7. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    Just read The Visible Man per your recommendation – good stuff. I must say though that Y_____’s therapy sessions with Vicky are eerily similar to Klosterman’s podcasts with Simmons, where Klosterman rambles 90% of the time and Simmons does his best to keep up and affirm whatever CK says.

    Also, Y______ was a music lover living in Austin and had never heard of Daniel Johnston?! I believe he called him Dennis Johnston. I did really enjoy the book though.

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Glad you liked it. Both good points though.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *