By Dalton Del Don
I traveled to Phoenix last weekend to participate in LABR, a prominent industry league that has been around for 19 years. I was in the NL-only league, which is extremely deep with 13 participants and 10 pitching slots to fill. Here are the full results, and here’s my roster:
C – Ryan Hannigan $7
C – Jason Castro $5
1B – Freddie Freeman $22
3B – David Freese $19
2B – Chase Utley $22
SS – Zack Cozart $11
CI – Chipper Jones $7
MI – Freddy Sanchez $5
OF – Jayson Werth $25
OF – Cameron Maybin $22
OF – Jason Kubel $17
OF – David DeJesus $8
OF – Jordan Schafer $5
UTIL – Juan Francisco $5
P – Stephen Strasburg $22
P – Matt Garza $19
P – Jaime Garcia $11
P – Chad Billingsley $9
P – Johan Santana $5
P – Aroldis Chapman $5
P – Trevor Bauer $3
P – Kerry Wood $3
P – Randy Wells $1
P – Chien-Ming Wang $1
R – Dustin Moseley
R – Santiago Casilla
R – Matt Harvey
R – Brad Hand
R – Billy Hamilton
R – Chris Young
Infield: I didn’t want to spend on a top catcher, so I just tried to find some at-bats that hopefully won’t kill my batting average. Mission accomplished, at least in theory…In a league with zero replacement value, it’s hardly ideal to rely on injury-prone veterans like Freddy Sanchez and Chipper Jones, but of course, their prices reflect that. These two will likely burn me, but the optimist points out Sanchez is a career .297 hitter, and Jones posted a .303/.350/.545 line with 10 homers over 165 ABs after the All-Star break last season.
I wish I had bid an extra dollar on Jed Lowrie, who could be a steal at $9. There were many options left at the time he was purchased, but owners had plenty of money to burn thanks to the lack of spending on pitching, so there were some surprisingly high bids on middle infielders, including Neil Walker $20, Ryan Roberts $19, Jose Altuve $17, Daniel Murphy $17 and Marco Scutaro $16. I certainly wasn’t targeting Chase Utley, and his degenerative knee is without question worrisome, but he’s 50-for-52 on stolen base attempts over the past three years, so I took the plunge at $22…Continuing my theme, David Freese is also injury-prone, and while his career .365 BABIP is sure to regress, his career line-drive rate is 22.9%.
Outfield: Petco Park limits his upside, but Cameron Maybin is a 24-year-old who just stole 28 bases over 63 games after the All-Star break last season. A 15-homer, 50-steal campaign isn’t out of the question in 2012…Jayson Werth at $25 was easily my biggest regret, and I still can’t figure out why I went so high. I expect him to bounce back, as even during a down year during his first season in Washington he nearly went 20-20, and players with his profile – high K and high FB rates – typically have greatly fluctuating batting averages yearly. Still, at $25, I got no bargain and paid as if last year didn’t happen. It was a mistake.
Jason Kubel has to learn a whole new set of pitchers switching leagues, and there’s some concern he’ll increase his chances of getting hurt without a DH option, but he’s leaving Target Field, which had a Park Index for LHB hitting home runs of 68 since it’s inception, which was tied for the lowest in major league baseball. Chase Field, meanwhile, favors left-handed power. Moreover, studies have proven hitters perform better when playing the field opposed to DH, so maybe the move to a full-time outfield role will actually help Kubel. He’s got sneaky 30-plus homer upside…Jordan Schafer hasn’t hit at the major league level, but he quietly stole 22 bases last year in just 302 at-bats and will be given the opportunity to act as Houston’s everyday leadoff man in 2012.
Pitching: Starting pitching went unexpectedly cheap. In fact, Clayton Kershaw, whom I have as easily the No. 1 fantasy starter in 2012, went for just $26. I had just bought Stephen Strasburg for $22 and didn’t want to spend $50-plus on two starters, but I still regret not bidding up Kershaw at the time. This buy was the single biggest bargain I’ve seen in my five years in LABR. I’m fully aware Strasburg won’t pitch more than 150-160 innings this year, but he can easily earn what I paid for in that amount. I’m an unabashed fan who thinks it’s not out of the question he’s the best pitcher in baseball this year…I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt Garza was an under-the-radar Cy Young candidate, but he also might get traded to the A.L. midseason, and without question I’d prefer Madison Bumgarner, who went for the same price.
Although his ERA and WHIP didn’t reflect it, Jaime Garcia quietly made substantial improvement with his control last season. He also finished with the 11th best GB% in MLB, and of the 10 ahead of him, Garcia’s K rate was better than all of them. Take away one outing in Coors Field, and his season ERA goes from 3.56 to 3.10…The aspect I’m probably happiest about my auction was getting Johan Santana, Aroldis Chapman and Trevor Bauer for a combined $13.
I entered with a plan not to buy a closer, and whether that strategy is right or wrong, it’s hard to mess up…As a Giants fan, Brian Wilson’s arm scares me, and while Sergio Romo has put up video game like numbers, because of his overreliance on his slider, Bruce Bochy essentially uses him like a specialist. As a result, I was happy to get Santiago Casilla in the reserve round. When Wilson went down last season, it was Casilla who picked up six saves, while Romo had just one all year. Casilla has a 1.85 ERA over the past two seasons, and after 325-plus players were taken in the National League alone, drafting someone who could get 20-plus saves seemed like a steal.
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