AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets (wild card)
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Denver Broncos
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens (wild card)
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Philadelphia Eagles (wild card)
3. New York Giants (wild card)
4. Washington Redskins
NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. Seattle Seahawks
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Detroit Lions
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl: Patriots over Saints
MVP: Philip Rivers
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Ingram
I know no one cares about how I did betting last year, especially ex post facto bragging, which is the worst, but I won seven of my eight O/U bets (with my one loss in horrible fashion, as I took the Panthers over). In fact, of my seven wins, only one even came down to Week 17 (Browns), as I had the rest locked up beforehand. Considering I bet on the Packers at 30/1 to win the Super Bowl before Week 16 and was pretty successful in teasers, I had my best season by far gambling.
But enough with the positives – whereas last year a bunch of over/unders jumped out, Vegas has really turned the corner this time around. I wanted to fade teams like Chicago and Kansas City, but while the former hosted the NFC Championship game last year, their number is currently 8.5 (with the vig -180 on the under!). And after winning the AFC West in 2010, the Chiefs sat at 7.5 before getting pulled off the board after Matt Cassel got hurt. (All lines courtesy of The M as of 9/7).
And when there were lines I liked: Houston over 8.5 (now off the board), Miami under 7.5, Cincinnati under 6, San Diego over 10 and New Orleans over 10, the vigs got so extreme, it was no longer even worth it. In all those examples, I’d rather cede a half win with a vig closer to even, without question, and sometimes I’d be willing to give up a whole win. In other words – no O/U bets jump out this season, unfortunately. One lesson I learned is to pounce on these in early August before they get so corrected. Of course, that won’t stop a degenerate like me from placing some bets, and here’s what I did:
Dallas OVER 8.5 wins (-145)
New York Giants OVER 9 wins (+115)
Washington UNDER 6 wins (even)
Arizona UNDER 6.5 wins (+170)
I also bet on the Rams to win the NFC West at +140 (this line went way down from when it opened in July).
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