The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Hakeem Nicks is something of a risk if drafted as a top-five fantasy receiver since he’s missed five games over the first two years of his career and was banged up in others, but he revealed a ton of potential racking up 79 receptions for 1,052 yards and 11 touchdowns over just 13 games during his second year in the league last season. At 6-1, 215, Nicks is physical and willing to go over the middle yet also possesses plenty of speed, evidenced by his 20 catches for 20-plus yards in 2010. Last year’s 8.2 YPT wasn’t anything special, but it’s worth noting Nicks was one of just eight receivers to see more than 25 percent of his team’s targets, according to Pro Football Focus, and that number should only increase with the departure of Steve Smith (Eli Manning relies as much on his X and Z receivers as any quarterback in football). Moreover, Nicks was targeted 12 times inside the 10 last season – the leader was Larry Fitzgerald with 14, and Nicks did that in just 13 games. As a second round pick, there’s no doubt Nicks carries some risk with his questionable durability and lack of a track record, but his per-game stats prorated to 97 catches, 1,295 yards and 14 touchdowns over a full season last year, and it’s safe to expect him to further improve during his third year as a pro. Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White are safer options, but only Calvin Johnson matches Nicks’ upside from the receiver position.

One of the most sexist ads of all-time.

Deacon Jones, on the other hand, is a staunch backer of equal rights.

I entered summer somewhat down on Felix Jones but have since joined the ever growing hype train (late to the party, I know). His lack of goal-line work (he’s just 1-for-6 there over the past two seasons) remains a concern, but he’s explosive and plays in a potentially extremely high-powered offense, so while he scored just two total touchdowns last year, there’s no reason he can’t reach eight or so in a similar way LeSean McCoy can. While Jones saw his YPC drop from 5.9 in 2009 to 4.3 last season, he improved greatly as a pass catcher, as he racked up 49 receptions for 450 receiving yards after entering with a career total of just 21 and 129, respectively. With Marion Barber out of Dallas, Jones is looking at a career-high workload in 2011, barring injury. He’s never going to be a 325-carry guy, but with his newfound ability as a receiver, all it would take is 250 rushing attempts (say 15-17 carries a game) for him to be a potential major fantasy factor. Coaches have soured on Tashard Choice, and rookie DeMarco Murray continues to battle the injury-prone label, whereas Jones has had a fantastic camp so far. As the lead back in an offense featuring Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, Jones shouldn’t be overlooked in fantasy leagues.

This mockup of sportscasters by “Batting Stance Guy” slayed me. Tim Kurkjian is hilarious.

This is likely the last red card this ref ever considers giving.

What Josh Freeman did last season shouldn’t go unnoticed. Considered raw coming out of Kansas State, he completed 61.4 percent of his passes with a 25:6 TD:INT ratio during just his second year in the league. Thanks to a more difficult schedule and some natural regression after the Bucs were generally considered quite lucky in 2010, most expect Tampa Bay to take a step back this year, and Freeman’s stats may suffer as a result. While there’s little doubt last season’s INT% isn’t sustainable, from a fantasy perspective, things could actually get better. For one, a tougher schedule should result in playing from behind more often, which should lead to more pass attempts, as the Bucs ranked 23rd in that category last season. Moreover, considering Freeman got 7.6 YPA with a 15:1 TD:INT ratio over the second half of last season, it sure seems like he’s improving with more experience, and further growth could be expected in year three. Mike Williams has a ton of talent and should only get better as a sophomore now capable of running more than just a handful of routes, and add in Arrelious Benn along with a healthy Kellen Winslow who had the rare offseason without a knee surgery, and Freeman has more than enough weapons to work with. It would be nice if LeGarrette Blount was a better pass catcher, but his tackle breaking ability will also demand opposing defenses’ attention. Carolina is obviously a plus matchup, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if shootouts ensued versus the Saints and Falcons, so Tampa’s division is also a plus. Finally, only Michael Vick had more rushing yards as a QB than Freeman last year, and at 6-6, 248, it’s safe to call it a fluke he didn’t run for a single score. Freeman is just another reason to wait on quarterbacks in fantasy leagues, as I’d feel comfortable with him as my QB1.

This chimp makes a gorilla look like a chump.

I’m guessing this marriage didn’t end happily.

I’ve been burned by Beanie Wells each of the past two years, yet still find myself willing to give him another chance this season. I’m not some crazy apologist – he’s clearly injury-prone and was downright awful when on the field in 2010. During his rookie season, fumbles could be blamed for his lack of carries. Last year’s excuse was a preseason knee injury that lingered throughout and sapped all his explosiveness. With Tim Hightower jettisoned, this is seemingly Wells’ make-or-break year, as even with second round pick Ryan Williams in tow, Arizona’s coaching staff is apparently going to give Wells every chance to act as the team’s feature back in 2011. When healthy, he has the physical tools to take advantage of it, but at some point, that statement comes off as me saying if I threw 100 mph I’d pitch in the majors or if my uncle had a sex change he’d be my aunt, as Wells needs to actually prove he can remain durable. I’m not the biggest Kevin Kolb fan, but there’s little doubt he’ll be an upgrade at QB (last year Arizona quarterbacks combined for a 50.8 completion percentage with 5.8 YPA and a 10:19 TD:INT ratio), and it’s an inherent advantage playing in the weak NFC West. Fool me once, shame on Wells. Fool me twice, shame on me. Is there a third saying to this?

Asian baller schools and dunks on LeBron James.

Tony Romo’s bachelor party sounds like it got out of control.

Dallas police on the lookout for pantie-headed bandit.

After Vincent Jackson’s impressive, albeit brief, performance on national TV recently, he’s likely shot up draft boards, and rightfully so. VJax has never had 70 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards or double-digit touchdowns in a season during his career, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he passed all those marks in 2011. As a deep threat, he loses some value in PPR formats, but at 6-5, 230 and in a dominant passing attack, there’s no reason he can’t reach a dozen touchdowns, especially with Antonio Gates continuing to battle foot problems and TD machine LaDainian Tomlinson no longer on the roster. Once again playing for a big contract, Jackson will be highly motivated and has the benefit of one of the best quarterbacks in football throwing to him as the team’s clear WR1. After missing the first 14 weeks of last season thanks to a holdout and calf injury, he promptly racked up 112 yards and three touchdowns in his second game, revealing the kind of upside matched only by a handful of other receivers. One year after Jackson got a whopping 11.8 YPT (the highest since the yards-per-target stat was tracked) on a ridiculous 69 percent catch rate, Jackson got 10.3 YPT in his brief action last season, so even a modest increase in looks would make him an easy top-five WR. I’d certainly prefer Jackson over Dwayne Bowe.

55-year-old casino exec releases one of the worst rap videos ever.

While I wish this clip wasn’t so cut up, I dominated this argument (although admittedly, after the fact it sounds like Vince Young is actually battling Mike Kafka to even win the QB2 role).

I’ve never been a big Tim Hightower fan (of course, this probably has everything to do with owning Beanie Wells the past two years), and Pro Football Focus actually graded him as the worst running back in the NFL last season, with his biggest liabilities coming as a pass catcher and blocker, which doesn’t exactly fit his narrative as a great third down back. Regardless, what matters most to fantasy owners is that Mike Shanahan is apparently a big believer, and with the competition dwindling (I like Ryan Torain, but he can’t stay healthy, and while I still consider Roy Helu a nice late round flier, he appears a ways off from contributing), Hightower is seemingly Washington’s feature back, although it’s worth noting his previous fumbling problem has carried over into practices this year. While I admittedly question Hightower’s talent, this is a back who’s one year removed from racking up 63 receptions, got 4.8 YPC last season playing in a bad offense and has totaled 23 rushing touchdowns over the past three years despite never seeing more than 153 carries, so if he truly becomes a lead back in a Shanahan offense, a role that looks increasingly likely, he’s going to make an impact in fantasy leagues.

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31 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. The Jewru Avatar
    The Jewru

    Dalton it pains me to say this since Liss pisses me off often “think Mike Turner 5th overall” but Aaron Rodgers has to be the pick. When talking top pick I want safety and track record. Give me AP over Foster and Rodgers over Vick.

    Just like CJ didn’t repeat the amount of big plays in 2009, Vick will not be repeating the amount of long TD’s to Desean and Maclin this time around.
    Personally I would hope to get Brees late 1st in 2 QB league and gobble up a stud that slipped to the 2nd due to run on QB’s.

  2. FlyingSpaghettiMonster Avatar
    FlyingSpaghettiMonster

    I can’t fault AR in the top ten.

    Who called Freeman? This guy. You are right though…he is a QB worth waiting for in what is a pretty deep class. The NFC South should shape up to be the most competitive division, again.

    I can’t see the Cards giving Beanie the bulk, but enough to make him a decent RB 2/3. That said, I wouldn’t draft him unless he falls into my lap in the late 3rd round.

    Goodyear Polyglass Ad- Y U NO show some skin?

    Austin or Bryant?

  3. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    Hey 3D, was listening on Sirius/XM earlier, very cool. Just wanted your opinions of my auction team I drafted today, and what I need to look at in attempts to make the team better…

    QB – Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco
    RB – Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, James Starks, Roy Helu, LaDanian Tomlinson
    WR – Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, Stevie Johnson, Hines Ward, Jordy Nelson
    TE – Dallas Clark, Greg Olsen
    K – Sebastian Janikowski
    D – New York Jets

  4. FlyingSpaghettiMonster Avatar
    FlyingSpaghettiMonster

    Kritter= You know damn well you drafted well. How many people are in that league?

  5. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    10, its an auction league, and just about everybody kept to ESPN’s value sheet, no huge bid ups etc etc, which led to some stacked teams, and some very weak ones. What I was asking mainly was what do 3D, and the others on this board as well, think I am in need of or need to keep an eye on as the season progresses knowing my starting point…

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Jewru – Vick is def. due to regress, but if you’re going to take a QB with a first round pick, I don’t see the point unless it’s someone with crazy upside like Vick. I’m waiting until round 6 for a QB before I’m taking Rodgers with a top-10 pick. And obviously, I love Rodgers in real life.

  7. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    FlyingSpaghettiMonster – Our league is slightly different/super aggressive, but even in that, I’d be shocked if Beanie cost a third round pick.

    I prefer Bryant 2-3 rounds later than Austin.

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Kritter – No weakness at all stands out. For now, seems best method would be to stand pat unless injuries strike. Nice team.

  9. Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover Avatar
    Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover

    I’m not sure which is funnier, that the Jewru hopes to “gobble up a stud” or that Kritter is playing in a league of preschoolers and dementia patients.

    DDD, which of my rookie RBs do you see having the most value, this year/long term: Alex Green, Kendall Hunter or Jacquizz Rodgers?

  10. The Jewru Avatar
    The Jewru

    I was referring to a 2 QB league like you were debating with Liss. Rodgers is #1 pick in that format.

  11. FlyingSpaghettiMonster Avatar
    FlyingSpaghettiMonster

    Kritter- Your team is stacked. That said, injuries do strike and all it takes is one. Your team is sick, in terms of starters. I like Stevie J as your flex, but you might be able to add depth behind him, if not upgrade altogether, especially if, as Yay-Yo mentioned, the league is laden with ffb invalids. I don’t see LT doing what he did last year, as Sexy Rexy already proclaimed Greene as the bell cow and McKnight’s role is growing. If you could package LT and Ward, you might find yourself another stud at RB/WR. Just a thought. -48.

  12. FlyingSpaghettiMonster Avatar
    FlyingSpaghettiMonster

    Denarius Moore. Say it a few times, K. If he is on waivers, he won’t be come week 4, if not earlier.

  13. FlyingSpaghettiMonster Avatar
    FlyingSpaghettiMonster

    Ryan Williams is done for. I guess it is Beanie time.

  14. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    Thanks for the insight guys, bottom line, everybody else had the same shot at these guys I did, there just weren’t any extreme bid ups, and since I pretty much knew after a couple of players I didn’t want anyway it was going to go that way, I planned for the players I wanted to have in my starting lineup, and went for them. I was eyeing DeSean Jackson valued at $21 when Megatron, valued at $32 came up, I figured I would be an interested observer and see when the bidding slowed down, which it did in the early 20’s, I figured I might get a bargain and did at $29. Same thing happened with Manning who I got for $22. Mendenhall at $43 and McFadden at $35 were slight overbids, but they were players I wanted, Wayne was $23, Clark was $15, everbody else was single digits with Stevie Johnson at $9 and the Jets D as a bit of an overbid at $7, everybody else was $4 or less, so I feel good about my strategy and the way things fell for me… Thanks for the kind words, I don’t think I’m dealing with a league full of idiots, everybody had their style, there just weren’t any absent players to bid up to value, so there were actually some bargains…

  15. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    One more team for you guys, 12 team league, non PPR, sort of a 2 QB league, although you don’t have to do it that way. I will post the positions and then the bench… Also its a keeper league, and as I had Jay Cutler last year, I didn’t have a QB worth keeping, which kinda screwed me here…

    QB – Kevin Kolb
    RB – Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden
    WR – Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss
    TE – Dallas Clark
    Q/R/W/T – Cedric Benson
    K – Rob Bironas
    D/ST – PACKERS

    Bench
    QB – Jason Campbell (again, the 2 QB thing)
    RB – Fred Jackson, LaDanian Tomlinson
    WR – Lee Evans, Robert Meachem, James Jones

    It’s not the best I’ve ever done, and I wish I had gotten a better QB, but Kolb may surprise me, we shall see, the core is strong, much like the other team, who knows, what do u guys think?

  16. The Jewru Avatar
    The Jewru

    Kritter in a league where you can start a 2nd QB at flex, it saddens me to say. but your team blows.

  17. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Agreed, apart from the two lead backs, the remainder of that team is 100% downside. Having played in a similar format for close to a decade, it’s pretty plain to me that you made the cardinal error of chasing RBs early. In such leagues, you absolutely MUST take a QB in at least one of the first two rounds, and ideally two in the first five rounds, then move on your 2nd RB and WRs in the wake of the havoc created by the inevitable QB run. It appears you waited until what, the 7th round, before taking Kolb as your lead guy?

    Not good.

    My QB-util home league has 14 teams. Here are my first 8 rounds from last year, before the power failed at my cousin’s place where I was drafting:

    4 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB
    25 Jamaal Charles, KC RB
    32 Roddy White, Atl WR
    53 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB (and he was suspended!)
    60 Jahvid Best, Det RB
    81 Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB
    88 Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR
    109 Zach Miller, Oak TE

    Draft power outage and subsequent autodraft BS notwithstanding, I went 11-2 and won my 3rd title in six seasons. This year, drafting #7, if Rodgers doesn’t fall to me again and Vick goes (both of which I expect), I will take Brady, Rivers, Brees or Romo, in that order. Yes, in the 1st round, and yes, ahead of elite backs like McCoy and Rice. In all honesty, at this point, knowing what I know about the format, I would probably take any of those QBs ahead of _any_ RB, CJ, AD, Foster and JC Superstar included. Coming back at #22, if any of the foregoing QBs still remain, I’ll grab him as my util player. If not, I’ll take the best available back or receiver. In the third round, I’ll take the best back or receiver. Fourth round, if I haven’t already got a 2nd QB, I’ll open the net to guys like Schaub, Ben and Ryan. If all those guys are gone and a QB run is in full-bloom, I’ll strongly consider reaching for Stafford or Flacco. Point is, I am hell-bent on getting a pair of clear-cut QB1-class players, including a top-5 overall QB, in such formats. They score just as much as elite RBs on average, and do so with far greater consistency on average. In the 14 games Rodgers started and finished, he scored in single digits exactly once, and that was against the Jets at the Meadowlands. Brees waited until Week 17 to sport his only single-digit performance. Rivers only had one, at Indy. Brady had zero such games all year.

    Good luck getting that kind of metronomic production out of any running back. CJ and All-Day both had six (!!!) single-digit games in our format last year; JC Superstar had four. Consistency is the name of the game in H2H, and with those QBs, you’re going to be hard-pressed to find it.

  18. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    Actually what happened was this, I drafted the beginning of the team in a totally separate format, there was no flex of ANY kind, and only 1 QB, AND it was a 10 team league. THEN the commish decides to make it a keeper, add 2 teams, AND add the flex, all more or less after asking us who we wanted to keep AND locking those players in. He then gave the two new teams two snaking picks from the remaining pool of players, and then gave them the 2nd and 4th picks in the draft, so they got 3 guys from the remaining pool before all but 2 other teams had any chance beyond their team from the previous year. He also changed some of the scoring rules, but that doesn’t bother me. I kept Mendenhall and McFadden, only other guy on my team last year worth keeping would have been Roddy White, again, I had Cutler and Sanchez at QB, am I gonna keep them over Mendenhall and McFadden, no.

    I actually probably should have taken a QB instead of the 2 WR I took in rounds 1 and 2 of the draft (Wayne and Jennings) but that’s that, I will find a way…

  19. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    Oh and also, all the major QB were KEPT, only QB worth a damn that was on the board at the start of the draft was Roethlisberger, either way I was in trouble at QB…

  20. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Stevie – I was all set to say Alex Green until Hunter changed my mind last night. I think it’s still a crap shoot, but I’ll say Hunter, since his path to a bigger role is clearer, and Green may just be a third down type back. Hunter broke some legitimate tackles Saturday and showed good long speed.

  21. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Jewru – We were talking about QBs in general in that clip, not nec. a 2 QB league, but I hear you. I actually do think Rodgers’ safety does raise his value (I mean compared to Vick) in a 2 QB format.

  22. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    FlyingSpaghettiMonster – D. Moore looks like the real deal…Ryan Williams injury def. helps Beanie’s value, but it also raises his price tag a bunch.

  23. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Kritter – Ya I’d echo the same sentiments about needing a QB as your flex, but it sounds like you kind of had no choice in the matter. I’d definitely try to package some of that RB depth (FJax and Benson) for a mid level QB, if at all possible.

  24. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    Agreed 3D, I’m trying, most of the teams have RB depth, its WR they are after…

  25. FlyingSpaghettiMonster Avatar
    FlyingSpaghettiMonster

    Kritter- You want a WR? Denarius Moore.

  26. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    Moore is taken

    I made the following trade
    I traded Benson, Moss and LT
    For Hasselbeck and Mike Thomas

    What do u all think?

    Qb – Kolb, Hasselbeck
    Rb – Mendenhall, McFadden
    Wr – Jennings, Wayne, Thomas
    Te – Clark
    K – Bironas
    D/ST – Packers

  27. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    That deal fell through, in hindsight not the best trade, but it worked out for the best as a 3 team trade is going to get me what I wanted in the first place, I ended up trading Santana Moss and LT for Jay Cutler and Jacoby Ford after Cutler and Ford were acquired by another team, and the team that had them to begin with wanted a much steeper price for them than Moss and LT, neither of which is going to be much of a help to my team, and I am able to keep Benson and Jennings which prior to this were going to be part of getting the QB I needed, PHEW!

  28. Poincare (Red 70 Blackstar) Avatar
    Poincare (Red 70 Blackstar)

    That Deacon Jones clip is priceless.

  29. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Poincare – Glad you liked it. I thought it had been underrated. One of my favorite clips in a while.

  30. splevelbuge Avatar
    splevelbuge

    Dalton, awesome article. When will you be posting your positional rankings? Looking forward to them, Thanks

  31. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I’ll post a new article Thursday previewing the season, but I think it’s too late for me to post my rankings. My bad — just didn’t get around to it this year.

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