By Dalton Del Don
I keep preaching patience with quarterbacks, but I do admit Michael Vick offers more fantasy upside at the position than ever before and wouldn’t fault someone for taking the plunge. If you prorate the 11 games he started and didn’t leave early with an injury last year over a full season, you get this: 4,319 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 959 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. In standard scoring formats, that’s equivalent to throwing for 6,237 yards with 51 passing touchdowns, making Tom Brady’s 2007 campaign look tame in comparison. Vick is still in the prime of his career, playing for a new contract and finally has his head on straight, willing to put in the work necessary to reach his potential. He also has a terrific Andy Reid scheme with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin at his disposal, which almost seems unfair. Of course, there’s very real injury concerns with him, as I’d probably set the over/under on games played somewhere around 13. While last season’s pace may not be sustainable, Vick is also now more comfortable in Philly’s system (his YPA jumped from 7.6 to 8.5 from his first six starts compared to his final six last year), and he also gets to toy with the NFC West in 2011. Again, I personally shy away from quarterbacks early in fantasy drafts, but there’s an argument to be made Vick should be the first player off the board this year.
Although not (yet) incarcerated, I too suffer from the same affliction.
I pathetically can’t even use chopsticks at Asian cuisine. This boss is using them to pickpocket.
A revenge plot so intricate, the prosecutors were pawns.
Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the tougher players to evaluate entering 2011 because of his unclear health status. He totaled 1,641 yards over 14 games last season while playing through a knee injury the entire time. While his touchdown total dropped to seven, he averaged 13.5 TDs over the previous four seasons, and since three of those came in a timeshare, it’s a safe bet to expect his scoring to rebound in 2011. But if the rumored “bone-on-bone” condition exists like a game of tummy sticks, then MJD is an awfully risky pick, one that will certainly cost a first rounder. Still, it’s not like others who will go at a similar time like Darren McFadden, Frank Gore and Michael Turner don’t also come with question marks. And while Rashad Jennings’ emergence could cause concern of a committee, Jones-Drew was on pace to finish with a career-high 342 carries last year, so Jacksonville relied on him more than ever. The presence of Jennings could actually be a positive, as there’s now a clear cut handcuff to back MJD up with, meaning you’d likely maintain 85 percent of the production should he go down. While the offense may take a step back should the team turn over QB duties to rookie Blaine Gabbert, Pro Football Focus graded the Jaguars as the fourth-best run-blocking unit in the NFL last season, so it’s an underrated offensive line. I wouldn’t fault anyone if they shied away because of the knee issue, and I imagine I ranked him higher than most in the magazine, but don’t forget Jones-Drew was a unanimous top-three fantasy pick last season and is still just 26 years old with a modest career workload.
This mayor has decided to punish those who park their cars illegally with a tank. I especially like how he swept up the glass afterward.
Seriously, what’s up with this guy? The slowest walker ever.
This footage of Kevin Durant’s first visit to Rucker Park (where he dropped 66 points) is pretty sick.
Last week I spoke of the debate between Ray Rice vs. LeSean McCoy after the “big four” were off the board, and since then, the former officially lost Willis McGahee as a goal-line vulture and added FB Vonta Leach, while the latter welcomed Ronnie Brown as a teammate. Brown’s addition to Philadelphia shouldn’t affect McCoy’s value much, but Rice’s should receive a nice boost with the other news. After eclipsing 2,000 total yards during his second season in the league, Rice was something of a disappointment to fantasy owners last year, as he finished with 119 fewer rushing yards despite seeing 53 more carries. Still, he totaled 1,776 yards with 63 catches, so he was hardly a bust. Dealing with a knee injury and an offensive line that went from a strength in 2009 to a weakness in 2010, Rice forced just five missed tackles on 307 rushing attempts, which was the lowest ratio in the NFL. Still, he enters 2011 back to full health and could even grab the goal-line carries with McGahee gone. While the addition of Leach might not have as big of an impact as some media are making of it, the move certainly doesn’t hurt, neither does a schedule that faces the NFC West this season. There’s also a chance Joe Flacco takes “the leap” this year into stardom, which would result in more scoring opportunities. Rice shouldn’t make it past the middle of the first round of fantasy drafts.
Pretty touching (that’s right, I said touching) story about someone who inexplicably suffered paralysis during his teenage years only to miraculously recover later.
Brendan Ryan with an infield triple.
An interesting idea to combat our nation’s debt crisis.
Brandon Lloyd is looking more and more like a bargain. I don’t blame people for being skeptical. After all, Lloyd had never even reached 750 receiving yards during his eight-year career before finishing as the No. 1 fantasy wideout last season. He also moves from having pass-happy Josh McDaniels as head coach to run-first John Fox. There is certainly a possibility he’s a one-hit wonder who’s a major bust in 2011. But Lloyd’s current ADP is 42, so I’ll sign up for grabbing someone who had 1,448 receiving yards with 11 touchdowns last season in the fourth round. It’s unlikely Lloyd pulls a Jose Bautista or Jered Weaver (two who dropped in fantasy baseball drafts as most questioned the extent of their regression, when in reality they have actually only gotten better), but at some point, let’s not outthink ourselves where credit is due. Lloyd flashed plenty of potential back in his days with San Francisco, and he remains Denver’s clear No. 1 target. While he actually performed just as well (slightly better even) with Tim Tebow at quarterback, most agree the move to Tebow in a full-time role would also cause a hit to Lloyd’s value, but it now seems as though Kyle Orton will enter the year as the Broncos’ starter. And for all the talk of Fox wanting to go run-heavy, Denver’s defense looks terrible, so they may be forced to play catch up quite a bit in 2011, and Fox has produced some monster seasons from his WR1 in the past (even the year Steve Smith went down with an injury, Muhsin Muhammad then proceeded to catch 93 balls for 1,405 yards and 16 touchdowns). I hope the Lloyd skepticism remains in my drafts.
This news crew deplorably distorted a quote just a bit.
Messy burglar smears house, even dog with peanut butter and jelly.
What do we make of Ryan Mathews? Not only am I confident owners who were burnt by him last year will stay away in 2011, I’m also pretty sure most are still violently angry at those who recommended him (this includes me). In a Norv Turner offense led by Philip Rivers (and in a soft AFC West division), there are few better situations to be in as a lead back. In fact, entering last season, San Diego was coming off a year in which they produced 28 goal-line carries – the most since 2004, which was also the Chargers. While Mathews flashed at times during his rookie campaign, he was never 100 percent after suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 2, and he fumbled five times over just 158 rushing attempts while going 0-for-5 at the goal line. Moreover, Mathews is already dealing with a toe injury this preseason, and he even failed a recent conditioning test. While the latter is probably nothing to worry about, as he’s seemingly a good character guy, it’s entirely possible his body simply can’t hold up at the NFL level. While plenty of rookie running backs have enjoyed big seasons right out of the gate, the unknown makes them inherently riskier, and Mathews is similarly again a gamble entering his second year as a pro. With Darren Sproles’ departure, there’s a big opportunity to rack up receptions in San Diego this year, and while Mike Tolbert enters the favorite to play on passing downs thanks to his superior blocking, Mathews should improve in that area as a sophomore, and he certainly has the physical tools to excel more than Tolbert as a receiver. The Chargers used the No. 12 pick to draft Mathews, so the team still envisions him as their franchise back, and while it remains to be seen if he can take advantage of the opportunity and stay healthy, at least Tolbert is there as insurance for Mathews owners (go ahead and reach a round or two early for Tolbert, to be safe). While playing hurt, Mathews forced 19 missed tackles last year despite playing 291 snaps (which ranked 50th among running backs) – the same amount as LeSean McCoy and more than Frank Gore, Ray Rice and Shonn Greene, so talent exists. Combine that with his situation, and top-five upside remains.
This Russian brawl (near a dolphin pool) is no joke.
This kid survived quite a cumbersome injury.
Matthew Stafford has a 54.5 career completion percentage accompanied by a 5.9 YPA and has been the most injury-prone quarterback in football since entering the league, yet I still consider him the QB to target in fantasy drafts this year. Not only does he benefit from the single biggest freak in the NFL in Calvin Johnson out wide, but Brandon Pettigrew at tight end and Jahvid Best out of the backfield are two other major weapons to work with, not to mention rookie Titus Young as a deep threat. Continuity within Detroit’s coaching staff also helps, and while the defense should improve thanks to a potentially dominant line, the secondary remains shaky, and either way, should result in favorable time of possession if opposing teams can’t run the ball. And it wouldn’t be a stretch to envision shootouts with all their division rivals. This is almost certainly like using UZR/150 in baseball (meaning worthless), but Pro Football Focus gave Stafford a grade of 7.9 over his three games last year (in which two came against the Bears and Jets), which would prorate to 126.4 over a full season. To put that into perspective, their highest grade of any QB last year came in at 61.3. Possessing one of the strongest arms in the NFL with potential to improve greatly still just 23 years old (Andy Dalton is older) with the league’s most dangerous wide receiver at his disposal and an offensive coordinator in Scott Linehan who called the third-most pass plays in all of football last season, only health can prevent Stafford from being a top-10 fantasy QB this year, and his upside is actually quite a bit higher.
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