By Dalton Del Don
After posting a fine .308/.361/.438 line as a 24-year-old in 2009 and then a disappointing .673 OPS last season while dealing with injuries, it now seems so obvious Asdrubal Cabrera was a player to target in drafts this year, but few could have predicted just how good he’s been so far. Entering with a career-high of six home runs, Cabrera already has 15 jacks, and he’s also 12-for-13 on stolen base attempts while playing a premium shortstop position. Hitting primarily second in a decent Indians lineup, Cabrera is also on pace to finish with 101 runs scored and more impressively, 95 RBI. The safest bet is expecting Cabrera to regress from here on out, but calling him a sell-high is totally dependent on how your specific league values him (then again, I guess the same could be said about every player and every league), as there’s also no glaring reason to ship him off at anything less than full value as nothing in his peripherals scream fluke (his HR/FB% is well above his previous career rate, but it’s also not crazy at 13.6%, and he’s hitting more fly balls than ever and is now entering his prime at age 26).
Assuming she wasn’t in on it, this tops the list of recent crazy marriage proposals.
I’ve been reluctant to do so, but I now admit, .
It’s not a stretch to call Justin Verlander the best pitcher in baseball right now. I’d probably take Roy Halladay, and others certainly belong in the discussion, but Verlander has forced himself in the conversation with his dominant 2011 season thus far, and it pains me to admit he’s on exactly zero of my fantasy teams. While elite, his 8.76 K/9 rate ranks “only†10th in baseball, but it’s worth noting of those ahead of him only two pitch in the American League (Michael Pineda and Gio Gonzalez). Over his last eight starts, Verlander has posted a remarkable 71:8 K:BB ratio while lasting at least 7.0 innings in every outing. There’s no doubt he’s been worked hard, both this year and in the past, but he relies little on the slider (7.6% this year) and often sees his fastball velocity, which averages 95.2 mph – the best in major league baseball, actually increase later in games. Verlander’s hit rate (.232) is almost certain to increase, but the Tigers have been an above average defensive team this season, and his career mark is .289, and it’s unsurprising to see some “luck†factoring into a pitcher with a miniscule 2.15 ERA. His 7.5 HR/FB% is right in line with his career norm, and he’s even cut one full walk per nine innings off last season. Verlander has been flat-out dominant.
The first act is one thing, but personally I feel like the garbage disposal took it too far.
Unless you’re in a 10-team league or shallower, might as well take a flier on Brandon Allen (I’d imagine he was already owned in the majority of NL-only formats). While some will be upset it’s not Paul Goldschmidt, who has 26 homers, getting the opportunity, they both have an identical 1.060 OPS. Goldschmidt has done so in Double-A, while Allen has been playing in Triple-A, although admittedly in the hitter-friendly PCL. While Goldschmidt may have a higher ceiling doing so as a 23-year-old, fantasy owners in redraft leagues should prefer someone who’s 25 and more likely to produce now. Not that I have an Allen over Goldschmidt bias (although I was able to nab the former in a couple daily leagues Thursday), but either one would seemingly be an upgrade over Arizona’s current first base situation. Allen held his own in the majors last year with a .393 OBP (in an extremely small sample), and especially against right-handers, could be an asset from here on out with Chase Field on his side.
Pretty incredible “Mario Bros†run.
Two-headed snake? Two-headed-snake.
After allowing 12 hits while striking out none over seven innings in a home start against the Mets, Derek Holland didn’t get out of the first inning during his next outing despite remaining in interleague play, as he was tattooed for five runs while recording just two outs versus the Marlins. Since then, he’s thrown back-to-back shutouts, and while they have come against the two weakest offenses in the American League, and his inconsistency can be infuriating, there’s no doubting Holland’s upside. He’s posted a 15:3 K:BB ratio with a 0.72 WHIP over that span, and while his overall numbers remain pedestrian, and he has the tough task of pitching in Texas while in the summer heat, Holland’s average fastball velocity (93.6 mph) ranks sixth best in major league baseball (and second-highest as a lefty). He’s someone who could produce a big second half.
An unusual magnetic attraction.
I was in Las Vegas over the All-Star break, and as someone who bets primarily on sports and stays away from the tables, I was there at the worst time of year. I lost badly on the Home Run Derby (any port in the storm, right?), won one All-Star prop (over 17.5 pitchers used), lost another (over 14.5 Ks, which came down to the final strike!), and ended up taking the National League run line (+180) as my saving grace, but the line that really stood out was the Angels at 40/1 to win the World Series. As usual, it varied by Casino, but at The Paris, this seemed like terrific value, considering they also had the Mariners at 35-1 (I actually think Seattle would be an extremely dangerous team in the postseason, assuming King Felix, Michael Pineda and Erik Bedard are all available), who are currently 7.5 games out of first place compared to 1.0 for the Angels. I fully expect the Rangers take the division, and maybe even run away with it, but considering there were around 20 teams more favored than the Angels, who have been known to be aggressive at trade deadlines, and if they actually did reach the playoffs would run out Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, making them plenty dangerous when starting pitching matters most in a short series, it certainly seemed like a decent gamble for a good payout.
A (very) brief snippet from a recent interview I had with Rickey Henderson in which I was pretty upset he never spoke in the third person.
There’s being bold, and then there’s this guy.
Ian Kennedy has seen his ERA rise from 2.90 to 3.44 over his past three starts, but he should still be viewed as a highly valuable fantasy asset nevertheless. His 3.1 K:BB ratio is elite, and while his walk rate continues to improve, more importantly, he’s induced more groundballs than fly balls this season for the first time in his career, which is especially important pitching in Chase Field. The former first round pick doesn’t throw that hard and may never live up to his previous hype as a Yankee prospect, but he’s thriving in the N.L. West, and his current .271 BABIP is actually higher than his career .269 mark, and the Diamondbacks have posted a collective 20.2 UZR (sixth best in MLB), so there’s no reason to expect a huge spike there. Most would prefer Daniel Hudson to Kennedy right now (and I probably agree), but the former has a worse ERA despite giving up six fewer homers on the year, and Kennedy’s 106:34 K:BB ratio suggests he’s here to stay.
My favorite show, “Curb Your Enthusiasm,†debuted last week, and it did not disappoint. I strongly recommend everyone should be watching “Curb†and “Louie†right now (and I assume “Breaking Bad,†which I’m still behind on yet am convinced it’s as great as everyone suggests).
Quick hits: If you take away two of Carlos Marmol’s outings this year, his ERA drops from 3.64 to 1.31. Of course, he gave up nine earned runs while recording just one out in those two appearances, and that’s a silly way of evaluating, but it does highlight the volatility of relief pitching, especially one with such shaky command. That said, Marmol appears to be safe in the closing role…As an owner of both, I hope I’m wrong (and have been known to be overly pessimistic in hopes of an optimist outcome), but at this point, I’d be absolutely shocked to see either Josh Johnson or Ike Davis play one more inning combined in 2011…Alex Rodriguez remains productive when on the field (even with a big drop in his career OPS, the Yankees’ lineup helps so much in counting stats), and I was personally a buyer before the year started, but even after entering 2011 feeling better than he has in a while with his previous hip injury in the rearview, Rodriguez’s body is simply breaking down. It’s going to be hard to recommend a 35 (or over) player as a first round pick moving forward, even an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Also, more than ever, I’m going to suggest taking a first baseman early in 2012 (football may be more volatile than baseball, but the latter still has plenty of uncertainty, and defensive positions play a role in predicting health and to a lesser extent, performance at the plate).
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