The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

It’s pretty clear the tier 1 of running backs (and overall) features four players, and although they almost certainly won’t finish as such by the end of the year, I do prefer getting a top-four pick, if for no other reason than it gets pretty dicey soon thereafter. I don’t feel strongly one way or the other in the Adrian Peterson vs. Arian Foster debate, and while I also wouldn’t fault anyone for taking Jamaal Charles No. 1, his workload is most questionable of the group, and unlike the three others in this tier (including Chris Johnson), Charles is hardly guaranteed goal-line work. I personally prefer LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice next, but after pick No. 4, each league will likely look very different from then on, so it might make sense to move to the back end of round one if you don’t get a top-four pick. The next tier of backs is so tough to gauge, I’d almost prefer someone else makes the decision for me anyway, which would then also come along with an earlier second round choice (hello Ryan Mathews).

This surveillance video of a Chihuahua staving off a robbery killed me. The L.A. Times even reported the culprits bounced with their bag far from full.

The night Brooks Conrad’s life almost fell apart. He’ll always have a soft spot in my heart as a Giants’ fan, but man, that was one brutal day no one should ever have to endure. What a story.

Preaching patience with quarterbacks is obviously a tired bit of advice, but both Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers are likely to go in the top-15 picks in drafts this year, so it’s clear not all agree with this strategy. Assuming it’s a one-quarterback league (this changes completely in 2-QB formats, even in leagues in which a QB is eligible at the flex position, which is probably the best format strategically), I simply can’t see taking one within the first six rounds or so (assuming Rodgers or Vick don’t fall to the fourth or something). Quarterback is without question the safest position, as an early running back selection carries a far greater likelihood of being a total bust, but the former’s higher floor is also a reason to grab them later on, when plenty of viable options should be available. You can draft multiple (the last to draft a QB, first to draft a backup strategy) and play matchups, but I’d also feel perfectly comfortable with Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford or even Tim Tebow being my No. 1 starter entering 2011. Each of their current ADPs resides outside the top-100 right now.

Great blooper reel. Dadgummit!

This “huge Pats fan” is looking to score some tickets to the New England/New Orleans game this year.

Fantasy owners in dynasty formats should have an interesting upcoming rookie draft. Normally I side with running backs all else equal, especially considering wide receivers typically take 2-3 years to develop, but I’d make A.J. Green the first pick. He’s not in an ideal spot with such an uncertain QB situation, but Green looks like a true “freak,” and with both Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco likely gone, he could dominate targets immediately. I can’t see not taking Mark Ingram next. He only averaged 15.9 carries per game in college and doesn’t appear to be a truly special back, and it’s unclear if Sean Payton will again employ a RBBC, but if he becomes a workhorse in New Orleans’ offense, he’ll make those who took Green before him regret it. I originally had Daniel Thomas ahead of Ingram (in redraft leagues), as it appeared he was going to be Miami’s lead back, but it now seems like he might also be part of a committee. Still, he’s likely the obvious third pick. Julio Jones would probably be considered next, but he’s the fourth option in Atlanta (seriously, how bad was that trade for the Falcons? You’re telling me the Cardinals turn down that same deal for Larry Fitzgerald?). Later, some real interesting sleepers at running back include Roy Helu, Delone Carter and DeMarco Murray. As for rookie quarterbacks, I’d bet right now Andrew Luck appears in more Pro Bowls than Cam Newton, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker combined.

I went to this legit Thai restaurant last week in Las Vegas. If you like spicy food, I highly recommend it. One of the best meals I’ve ever had in my life, hands down.

Watched the last Harry Potter movie last weekend, which I definitely enjoyed. Although after never reading any of the books and without giving any spoilers, I must say, the epilogue was truly awful. I mean beyond terrible.

Shonn Greene’s current ADP is 59.82, which certainly won’t be a reflection of reality come draft day in August in any league I’m in. He absolutely burnt fantasy owners last season, but I believe the Jets’ coaching staff when they say they are going to make him the team’s featured back in 2011, especially since LaDainian Tomlinson himself has even admitted he’s best suited for solely third-down work at this stage of his career. Moreover, the Jets have run the ball 1,141 times the last two years since Rex Ryan took over as head coach – that’s 147 more carries than the next closest team (the Chiefs). Greene takes a hit in PPR formats, but after recording just two catches over the first 20 games of his career, he hauled in 14 receptions for 103 yards over his last nine contests in 2010. That’s not exactly Marshall Faulk in his prime, but 200 additional receiving yards yearly is better than what Michael Turner gives you, and further development can be expected, even if Tomlinson dominates third-down work. Who gets the goal-line carries will be key, and although Greene got just three attempts there last season, he’s certainly built to be successful in short-yardage situations. While I’ve been wrong writing off Tomlinson the past couple of years, he’s now 32 years old with 3,099 career rushing attempts and averaged just 3.28 YPC over the second half last season. Few players typically available as third and even fourth round picks offer as much upside as Greene in 2011.

What an obnoxious penalty kick. Not that I’m against it. We all know the U.S. women’s team could have used such a PK in the final in the World Cup. I kid – what a terrific match. Never expected to get so worked up over it. I was on the edge of my seat. Brutal loss for the U.S.

Mario Manningham is one of my favorite targets this year. I’m pessimistic about Steve Smith’s ability to perform after undergoing microfracture surgery, which should lead to a serious increase in targets for Manningham. Eli Manning has quietly developed into a star over the past couple of seasons (completing 62.6% of his passes with a 7.7 YPA and 58 touchdowns while playing in a windy outdoor stadium. Last year’s 25 picks involved a lot of bad luck (QBs are far less responsible for INTs), and he took just 16 sacks while remaining remarkably durable), and while I’m a huge Hakeem Nicks fan, there’s no denying he’s an injury risk, so imagine if Manningham became New York’s WR1. His touchdown:reception ratio (9:60) isn’t sustainable, but Manningham was highly impressive during his third year in the league last season (after essentially red-shirting during his rookie campaign). According to Pro Football Focus, despite seeing a modest 23 “deep” targets (20-plus yards), Manningham tied for sixth in the NFL with 12 receptions. Only four receivers recorded more yards on deep passes (Brandon Lloyd, Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson and Greg Jennings) and just two scored more long touchdowns (Calvin Johnson and Wallace). Impressive stuff considering Manningham was mostly a WR3 for the Giants. Go get him.

It appears this woman was displeased with the judge’s decision.

It’s no secret I’m a Jay Cutler fan (and not entirely because I resemble him), but after a seemingly modest season last year, realize when looking over his stats they came in 14.5 games, and it’s possible the lasting narrative of him leaving the NFC Championship Game hurt might also bump him down a couple pegs (admittedly, a stretch). Regardless, Cutler will be entering his second year under Mike Martz, which shouldn’t be underestimated, and it’s hard to imagine the Bears’ offensive line being worse than last season, and their wide receiving corps should also improve. Moreover, it’s also a safe bet to expect Chicago’s defense to take a step back, and it’s not crazy to imagine shootouts with Detroit and Green Bay, and it’s not like Minnesota is a poor matchup either. Cutler posted a career-high 7.6 YPA during his first year working with Martz, and if the attempts increase should Chicago’s defense be unable to remain elite, big numbers could be in store, especially since they also face the AFC West in 2011. Plus, his fiancée isn’t exactly hard on the eyes.

Woman pays $10,000 for “non-visible” work of art.

Darren McFadden is one of the most interesting players entering 2011. While his teammate Michael Bush was drafted ahead of him last year, McFadden finally lived up to his pedigree during his third season in the league, totaling 1,664 yards and 10 touchdowns despite missing three games and getting just 223 carries. Known as a burner with sprinter type speed, which was evidenced by his NFL-high 14 rushes for 20-plus yards, McFadden also recorded 3.5 YPC after contact, which was the second best mark in football. He received just four goal-line carries (converting three of them), but because McFadden has become one of the most dangerous backs as a receiver, it wouldn’t be a stretch if someone took him with the fifth overall pick this year. After all, only Arian Foster averaged more yards from scrimmage than McFadden last season (128.0 yards per game. To put that into perspective, Michael Turner averaged 91.0 YPG). Having said that, McFadden seems like a pretty big bust candidate, as he’s jumping about eight rounds in cost and remains a big health risk (he’s never played more than 13 games in his career while never carrying the ball even 225 times). I’m in no way recommending you avoid Run DMC altogether and acknowledge pretty much all backs present some risk, but no first round pick carries more this year, so make sure you go a round or two earlier to secure Michael Bush (whom I’m assuming remains with Oakland) if you draft McFadden.

Like mother like daughter.

Seriously, this lockout should seemingly be finished any minute now. I was once quite pessimistic, but what encouraging news. I’m pumped for some football!

Normally I’m all about young over old in football (although the opposite has become true in baseball, as boring veterans are now the market inefficiency), but I’m on board with Fred Jackson. I agreed with the criticism when Buffalo used its ninth overall pick to select C.J. Spiller, but that was more so because they had far more pressing needs to address, not to mention using a high pick on a running back is insane unless it’s a once in a generation talent, not that I had a problem with Spiller’s ability to play in the NFL, per se. Apparently, that last issue is as great as the first, as Spiller has struggled with the transition. There’s plenty of time to improve, and he proved solid as a receiver, but the Bills’ coaching staff has recently compared him to Reggie Bush, which seemingly means he’s not exactly viewed as a major threat to Jackson’s carries. After Marshawn Lynch was traded last season, Jackson totaled 1,055 yards with six touchdowns over 12 games. His eight dropped passes were most among running backs, but he improved greatly in pass protection. With a shaky offensive line, Buffalo isn’t an ideal situation, but Ryan Fitzpatrick gives them a better QB in 2011 than a handful of teams who will be relying on rookies. Assuming Spiller’s development doesn’t take a huge leap, Jackson should once again pay big dividends in fantasy leagues.

Follow me on Twitter.


Posted

in

by

Tags:

Comments

4 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Davidian Avatar
    Davidian

    Is that the Thai restaurant by Joeys house? So good, what level of spice did you go?

  2. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Love the QB-eligible util setup, been running that for six-plus years in my home 14-teamer with 4 pt passing TDs and 1 pt/25 passing yards and the results have been excellent. The points structure is such that the elite QBs and RBs tend to be about equal at the end of the year, but the QBs are more consistent week-to-week, making them very attractive options. 12 QBs were drafted in the first three rounds last year, including #s 1 and 4 overall. By the sixth round, owners who slept on the position were desperately reaching for the likes of Alex Smith, Vince Young, Campbell, etc. As I had taken Rodgers (#4) and Ben (#53) already, I was free to pounce on their mistakes, grabbing Bradshaw at 81 and Nicks at 88 (who I subsequently packaged together a month in for CJ, hehehe). Good times, good times.

    It’s by far the most important position in the game (indeed, in any major team sport), it’s only sensible that a reasonable premium be attached to it. As a wise man told me just yesterday, in a standard 1-QB league, even a 14-teamer, a QB is basically just a commodity, easily replaced, and not especially valuable. It’s hard to deal even bona fide studs for value b/c it’s so easy to acquire a serviceable replacement in FA by playing matchups. It just seems like a shame, and a perversion of the actual state in the game, where teams struggle for years (or in the case of Chicago, more than half a century) to get a decent option at the position. In reality, RB is the disposable position, with Pro Bowlers routinely plucked out of Foot Lockers and the driver’s seats of cabs, yet the standard FFL league format is basically an altar to this supremely fungible position. For every Kurt Warner there at least a dozen or two Priest Holmeses.

    And Thai cuisine is easily the best on the planet, only northern Indian is even in the same discussion. So miss the place half a block from my old apt in Chicago, there are only two restaurants within a remotely reasonable drive from me now and they’re both absurdly overpriced, so I’ve been stuck cooking my own stuff. Ugh.

  3. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    I kind of like the QB flex idea for our league this fall!

  4. Jim Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Avatar
    Jim Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor

    Robby- Oh stop it.

    In terms QBs, I tend to agree with you DDD, with AR12 and Vick being the exceptions. 25 pts in the bank is hard to pass up, especially if you are confident in landing a quality RB in rounds 4-7. For every Mathews or Greene reach (2010), there is a Hillis or Foster to be had. The bust rate on late 1st/early 2nd round RBs seems to be rising each passing year.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *