The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Entering the year, Vegas set the line on Ichiro Suzuki finishing with 200 or more hits at even odds, which was interesting considering he had eclipsed the mark all 10 years he’s been in the league. He’s currently on pace to finish with 178 hits, so he’s got a lot of work to do to reach that number again. After seeing his line-drive percentage drop each of the past five seasons, it’s back up to 19.0%, which isn’t that far off Ichiro’s career mark of 20.3%. He’s also sporting his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season, so there’s no glaring reason for his drop in production, although it’s probably fair to suggest he’s lost some speed, resulting in fewer infield hits. His .290 BABIP is well below his career level of .354, so he qualifies as a nice buy-low target, especially since he’s yet to hit a homer in 2011. Ichiro continues to run, and if you need a batting average boost, it’s probably safe to expect him to hit around .325 from here on out.

Best interview ever.

Entirely possible this is fake and/or you’ve already seen it, but it’s worth passing along nevertheless.

I was high on Mark Teixeira entering the year, even drafting him on my Yahoo Friends & Family team, but I still feel mostly like I blew it, as faced with an opportunity to grab him late in the first round in WCOF, I selected David Wright instead, and the moment of cowardice has haunted me ever since. Teixeira is hitting a modest .251 on the year, but he’s also on pace to finish with 51 home runs, 102 runs scored and 128 RBI – this despite being a notorious slow starter, as his career line in April is .239/.350/.426. If David Wright were giving me 80 percent of that production, it would be one thing, but of course, he hit .226 before a broken back sidelined him indefinitely after averaging 156 games played over the previous six seasons. In such a high stakes league, every Teixeira homer widens a wound in my soul, and it’s been a brutal experience I wouldn’t wish upon my worst enemy. Ultimately, I can only blame myself, as I overrated position scarcity. Wright scored 87 runs last season, and even during a down year when he posted the lowest OPS since his rookie campaign, Teixeira scored 113 runs. This is a mistake I’m not entirely sure of which I can recover.

This is one of the most suspenseful YouTube clips I’ve seen.

Bon Iver’s new album was his first I’ve listened to, and I couldn’t be more impressed. Ridiculously good.

Expanding further upon the idea of position scarcity, while it’s clearly very real, those who play such positions carry extra health risks, so realize you are aiming for ceiling far more than floor. Just ask anyone who spent an early round pick on Buster Posey or Joe Mauer. And even Carlos Santana is batting just .221 while playing the taxing position of catcher, and while Brian McCann is extremely valuable to the Braves, he’s on pace to finish with just 49 runs scored – the upside of catchers, who have to take more days off while also the most likely to be playing less than 100 percent, simply isn’t high enough to truly move the needle to be worth a high draft pick, in a way similar to tight ends in fantasy football. Middle infielders also no doubt carry greater risk for injury (Chase Utley and Troy Tulowitzki are the obvious recent examples), and while admittedly anecdotal (I’m too lazy to research), outfielders are seemingly more volatile than the big hitting first basemen, who are without question the safest early round picks. It’s true some solid 1B are typically available late, but there also won’t be a position off the board at a more rapid pace early on, so you better grab one.

Ever wonder what a shaved bear looks like? Neither did I, and it’s not a pretty sight.

As usual, Anthony Jeselnik absolutely killing it.

After breaking out in 2009, Adam Lind hit just .237 last season, but he’s quickly turning into one of 2011’s biggest draft day steals. He’s on pace to hit 33 homers and rack up 99 RBI despite missing a full month with a back injury. His .341 batting average can’t be expected to continue, but Lind did hit .305 one season ago, and he’s 27 years old just now entering his prime. He’s hitting fewer groundballs than ever with an impressive 25.2 LD%, and batting directly behind someone who’s getting on base 48.9 percent of the time this year should continue to lead to a ton of RBI opportunities. Lind is shaping up to be a fantasy monster.

Pretty sick idea, but admittedly, this could also be terrifying.

Cone-ing is the new planking.

Some quick hits on pitchers: Madison Bumgarner gave up his first homer Wednesday since April 17 – a span of 11 starts. He also picked up just his third victory of the season, despite 10 straight quality starts. MadBum’s run support ranks seventh worst in all of baseball…Livan Hernandez’s stats on the road: 5.66 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 26:23 K:BB ratio. At home: 1.97, 0.91, 31:5…Over his last 10 starts, Luke Hochevar has struck out more than three batters just once, and it was a four K outing. The former No. 1 overall pick has somehow maintained a respectable 1.28 WHIP despite this. Then again, Carl Pavano (3.63 K/9) makes Hochevar look like Pedro Martinez in his prime…Matt Cain is 17-0 during his career when he gets at least three runs of support.

A slightly embarrassing way to graduate.

Lock this woman up ASAP.

Alcides Escobar has been nothing short of a terrible hitter throughout his brief major league career, but he’s raised his batting average nearly 35 points over the past week and has recorded a steal in four straight games, so fantasy owners in need of middle infield help should give him a look. Since hitting .304 as a rookie with Milwaukee in 2009, Escobar has looked lost at the plate, but he’s still just 24 years old and swiped 42 bags over 109 games as a 22-year-old during his last stint in Triple-A, so there’s some serious speed upside, especially if he can get his on-base percentage somewhere above .300. Escobar’s terrific defense should give him a long leash to stay in the lineup, and someone with an 18.3 LD%, 56.7 GB% and with speed, typically shouldn’t have a BABIP of .274.

Meet Junrey Balawing, who after just turning 18 years old, became the world’s shortest man at 23.6 inches tall.

Michael Cuddyer’s random three stolen bases were a nice surprise to his fantasy owners Wednesday, and his bat has come alive recently as well. In fact, he’s clubbed four homers with 11 RBI over the past 11 games, and he’s currently hitting cleanup, a spot that will look even better once Joe Mauer returns to the lineup. Most importantly, Cuddyer qualifies at second base in Yahoo leagues, which is huge. He’s one year removed from a 32-93-94 campaign, and even during a down year last season, he still produced 14-93-81, which is borderline elite for the ever-thinning second base position. Target Field remains an issue (although he’s hit far better at home than on the road so far this year), but after a slow start, Cuddyer is coming around and looks like a must-start in all formats.

Can you imagine losing on a penalty shot this way?

Josh Beckett has gone from one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year (5.78 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) to one of the best in 2011 (1.86, 0.92), at least on the surface. After he tossed a complete game shutout Wednesday when he allowed just one baserunner, his fantasy owners have to be ecstatic they gambled on him bouncing back. While it’s safe to call his true talent level somewhere in the middle of the two extremes, it’s remarkable just how similar his peripherals look this year compared to last. In fact, his K rate is actually down, and his K:BB ratio from 2010 (2.57) is nearly identical to this season (2.63). Obviously, things generally considered out of his control have gone from one extreme to the other. Last year his hit rate was .338; his current .217 BABIP is the lowest in MLB. Beckett’s HR/FB% was 14.2 in 2010; it’s 3.9% this season, which is the fifth lowest in the league, and his current 84.3 LOB% is the second highest mark in all of baseball. It’s unclear how much blame he deserves for last year and how much credit he should be given for 2011, but it’s been quite an interesting turnaround for Beckett. Regardless, any pitcher with such a modest K:BB ratio combined with such a sterling ERA and WHIP makes for a sell-high candidate, especially while playing in the AL East.

Ya, that’s normal.

While plenty of last year’s bums such as Josh Beckett and Adam Lind have paid off in a big way in 2011, there’s another group featuring Jason Bay and Chone Figgins, who not only have once again disappointed but have actually been even worse than in 2010. Is Bay done? It’s seemingly a ridiculous question at age 32, and I continue to stubbornly leave him in my lineup in my home league (when he’s not benched by the Mets, that is), but this is a guy who’s hit eight homers over his past 504 at-bats since signing a lucrative contract. Citi Field is known as a pitcher’s park, which it generally is, but it’s worth noting it’s played slightly as a hitter’s park so far in 2011, and Bay can’t blame bad luck either, as his LD% is a career-low, while his GB% is a career-high. It’s entirely possible last season’s severe concussion is still affecting him, but whatever the cause, fantasy owners would like to see some semblance of life. And fast. It’s hard to believe Bay was a typical late second, early third round pick as recent as last year.


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6 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. i am jack's fantasy baseball team Avatar
    i am jack’s fantasy baseball team

    glad to hear you liked Bon Iver’s new one so much — definitely check out his debut album from 4yrs ago too. also A+

  2. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    Would you trade Ichiro for Gabby Sanchez and Johnny Damon?

  3. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I am Jack – I will def. have to check that out.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Robby – Seems like an even offer to me.

  5. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    First of all, your links were amazing. Great lion wrestler, great cat lover, and coning is hilarious.

    While I agree with the general direction of your catcher comment, Santana was a big risk due to his limited MLB experience, and Mauer was a risk given his ballpark and injury history. I own McCann and have been happy with him, you can never expect more than 65 runs from him anyway.

    Bay is done. Please drop him in all formats.

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Thanks Donald. Hope you’re wrong about Bay, but the evidence suggests otherwise right now.

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