By Dalton Del Don
It’s easy to say Jose Tabata is playing over his head and unlikely to finish with his current .303/.410/.500 line, but fantasy owners have to be excited in what they have nevertheless. Maybe the spring training stories about him bulking up over winter should have been taken more seriously, as he’s already hit three homers after totaling just four last season. Tabata’s eight steals are also tied for the major league lead, and he’s only been caught once. His walk rate is more than two times better this year (13.9%) compared to last (6.3%), and he’s also nearly doubled his ISO (.197 compared to .101) in 2011. Tabata isn’t going to rack up the RBI hitting atop Pittsburgh’s lineup (he’s knocked in just one batter other than himself this year despite the scorching start), and there are accompanying red flags a regression is forthcoming, but he’s still just 22 years old and is a candidate to be one of the true breakout fantasy players this season.
This car thief isn’t going to let oncoming traffic or a speeding train get in his way. But he is cautious enough to have his flashers on.
This made me laugh. Someone posted the first page of David Foster Wallace’s “Infinite Jest” asking for feedback. The responses are priceless.
Josh Johnson is off to a ridiculous start, recording a 1.00 ERA, 0.59 WHIP and .112 BAA over four outings. Guys who can combine his current 9.0 K/9 ratio with a 57.4 GB% who also limit homers to such a degree (5.9 HR/FB%) are as rare of a deadly combination as you’ll find. While the latter may be a bit unsustainable, realize Johnson’s career HR/FB% is 7.1, as he’s about as tough to homer off as any pitcher in baseball. And while Chris Coghlan’s surprisingly strong defensive showing in center field so far is probably just sample size noise, it appears Florida is fielding a better defense overall than in years past. Johnson, who has even added a curveball this season, remains something of a health risk, as he’s surpassed 185.0 innings just once during his career, but he’s also perfectly capable of winning the Cy Young in 2011.
The location of this market may not be ideal.
Jose Bautista may not quite be on pace to match last season’s 54 homers, but he’s actually played even better in 2011. He entered Wednesday with a stellar .308/.455/.558 line while walking more often (14) than he’s struck out (13). Bautista has now hit 68 home runs over his past 719 at-bats. Despite being a slugger, his K rate isn’t so bad, so a .260-.280 BA should be expected. And with Toronto running like crazy this season (second-most SB in MLB) under new manager John Farrell, even 15 steals aren’t out of the question. When it came to Bautista, I was agnostic entering the year, but I’m now officially a believer. I’d currently consider him a top-15 player.
This gymnast is not messing around.
Interesting article about the possible advancement in pitcher evaluation.
Thanks to Ryan Franklin’s epic collapse to start the year (four blown saves over his first six appearances), Mitchell Boggs is an obvious add in all fantasy leagues, although he’s surely long gone by the time you read this. Still, as impressive as Boggs’ start has been (13:3 K:BB ratio over 10 innings), it’s worth noting his extreme splits could be problematic if he’s going to be used strictly in the ninth inning. For his career, Boggs has posted a 34:46 K:BB ratio over 64.0 innings against left-handers, resulting in a .328 BAA and an ugly 2.09 WHIP. He’s still developing and could improve in this area, so this isn’t necessarily a death knell, but opposing managers are going to load up on lefties when Boggs is being used in the closer’s role. Still, it’s not like the Cardinals have some great alternative right now anyway. Speaking of speculative closers, I recently spent $536 of my FAAB in WCOF on Kyle Farnsworth. Wish me luck, I’ll surely need it.
The craziest balk of all-time.
What has gotten into Jonny Gomes? After walking just 39 times over 511 at-bats last season, he’s already taken 15 free passes over just 53 ABs so far this year. He’ll always be a batting average risk as a high strikeout, extreme fly ball hitter, but the power has always been there. Last year he actually slipped in that department, finishing with just 18 homers. The year prior, he hit 20 bombs over just 281 at-bats. Gomes has even already added three steals this year. As such a poor defender, he’s no guarantee to last as a regular, but the newfound ability to take a walk is pretty eye opening, even if it’s come in a small sample. Gomes is an interesting player right now.
An officer told him he’d never seen anyone fight someone with “a pitchfork and a pan of potatoes.”
Mouthless methhead? Mouthless methhead.
Two middle infielders who look like they can be major contributors this year who likely went undrafted in many leagues are Jed Lowrie and Jonathan Herrera. Lowrie might be the hottest hitter in all of baseball, as he’s batting .462 with three homers, nine runs scored and 11 RBI despite starting just eight games this season. The middle infielder posted a .907 OPS with a 25:25 K:BB ratio last year, and it sure helps playing in Fenway Park and in Boston’s lineup. The upside here is immense. Lowrie, who is a switch-hitter, has always fared better against southpaws, and it’s worth noting his early season production has come against a disproportionate amount of left-handers, but there’s little doubt he’s a superior hitter to Marco Scutaro. Lowrie has been injury prone throughout his career, and it should be interesting to see if he can remain a regular once his first slump strikes with Scutaro’s presence, but he has the potential to finish as a top-10 fantasy middle infielder. As for Herrera, his strong spring training has carried over into the regular season, resulting in him becoming Colorado’s everyday second baseman. With his defense and ability to take walks (he has a 4:12 K:BB ratio), it’s a job he just might keep all year. Herrera stole only two bags over 222 at-bats with the Rockies last season, but he’s got speed, so it’s encouraging to see him already have four stolen bases without getting caught in 2011. The benefits of Coors Field remain, making Herrera a legitimate option at MI even in shallow mixed leagues.
For those of you in search of a good backscratcher, this man has the answer for you.
If this doesn’t convince you of extraterrestrial life, nothing will.
Brett Anderson sure looks impressive in the early going. It’s tempting to say this is what a fully healthy Anderson can do, but strangely, he’s posted a 1.63 ERA and 1.05 WHIP despite his average fastball velocity dipping from 92.1 mph last year to 90.5 mph this season. His slider has seen an even bigger decrease (83.6 mph compared to 80.8 mph). However, Anderson has thrown his curveball with much greater frequency, as he’s tossed it 20.9% of the time versus just 9.3% last season, and it’s been his most effective offering so far in 2011. His groundball rate is way up (65.0%), and while his early pace is obviously unsustainable, there’s a real benefit to playing home games in the Coliseum. Oakland’s defense has struggled so far (-10.1 UZR/150), but they project to be a strong unit moving forward (they had a 4.8 UZR/150 last season), which should lead to a downtick in his BABIP. Teammate Trevor Cahill is also fascinating, as he’s somehow gone from a poor strikeout pitcher (5.4 K/9) last year to an elite one (9.59 K/9) this season while maintaining a terrific groundball rate. I’m far less interested in his sparkling ERA than I am his sudden ability to miss bats. What do we make of it over four starts?
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