By Dalton Del Don
As someone who owns Ubaldo Jimenez in WCOF, watching his first start of the season was a brutal experience. It’s never fun getting burned in ERA right out of the gate (don’t panic Cole Hamels owners), but that was far from the biggest issue here. After his fastball averaged 96.1 mph last season (a full 0.7 mph faster than any other starter in baseball), it averaged 91.3 during Jimenez’s first start, and his secondary stuff was equally as unimpressive. He faced 26 batters. And struck out one of them. He didn’t allow his second homer of the season until June 6 last year, a feat that lasted all of 5.1 innings in 2011. The following excuse – cut on thumb – seems about the best news possible, and fantasy owners will gladly accept a couple skipped starts if that results in last year’s version returning shortly thereafter. Jimenez looked shockingly ordinary during his first start of the year.
An oldie but goodie. Let’s hope this guy is behind bars by now.
This guy is fearless, and it’s almost as if he’s disappointed at the lack of aggression.
Before injuries ruined his 2009 season, Jose Reyes averaged 14 homers, 65 steals, 113 runs scored and 66 RBI over the previous four years. He wasn’t all the way back last season, but Reyes did hit 11 homers and swipe 30 bags despite missing 30 games. He’s a career .285 hitter still just 27 years old. There’s some uncertainty involved with him a prime trade candidate now in the final year of his contract, but that really only really matters in NL-only formats that lose stats if moved to the American League. I’m not a believer in performance having anything to do with contracts, but stolen bases are the one category based greatly on will, and Reyes should be plenty motivated to rack up the steals with an eye on a monster contract entering his prime. It’s possible Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter bounce back, but after Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki, the shortstop landscape looks pretty barren in fantasy terms, giving Reyes even more value. His upside (20 homers, 75 steals) might be higher than any player in the league.
Fernando Rodney entered the year likely the biggest favorite to lose his closer’s job at some point this season, but it happened sooner than expected, with Mike Scioscia pulling the plug after just two appearances, when he managed to walk as many batters (four) as he retired. Expect the move to be permanent, both because Rodney is a below average reliever, and his replacement Jordan Walden is more than capable of running away with the job (and if he isn’t, Scott Downs or Kevin Jepsen are superior alternatives). With eight walks over 19.2 major league innings, Walden’s hardly a finished product, but with a whopping 30 strikeouts over that span, it’s clear his stuff is electric (his average fastball velocity in the majors is 98.4 mph, and his slider 85.4 mph). Walden’s numbers weren’t overwhelming in the minors, as he finished with a 1.53 WHIP (and a 7.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9) over Double and Triple-A last season, but he obviously now has the opportunity to make a major fantasy impact.
I’m not a religious fellow, but I can get behind this idea for Lent.
Milton Bradley was a popular late round pick by me this year, and in most leagues I didn’t grab him, I’ve since added him via the waiver wire. Of course, we are talking about deeper formats, and he’s coming off a year in which he hit .205/.292/.348. But he posted a .378 OBP in 2009 and was a monster the year before that (.321/.436/.563). That was in Texas, and he’s now in Seattle and soon to be 33 years old, but Bradley is currently hitting third in the lineup and capable of producing before his next inevitable injury strikes. Even while hitting .205 in a miserable season last year, he was on pace for 20 homers and 20 steals over a 600 AB projection. Bradley deserves to be on most rosters right now.
Your everyday love story between a man and a…goose?
Curtis Granderson was already an interesting target this year coming off a disappointing first season in New York, but since his health status was in question when many drafts were held the final weekend leading up to Opening Day, he could prove to be a real bargain in 2011 with him being ready since day one. He’s hit .249 and .247 over the past two years, as he continues to struggle mightily against lefties, but he’s also averaged 27 home runs and 16 steals over that span, and that’s included just 69 games in new Yankee Stadium. Granderson has been successful on 81 percent of his SB attempts during his career, and manager Joe Girardi encourages running, so he’s fully capable of swiping 20-25 bags, especially while hitting at the bottom of the lineup. Batting eighth is hardly ideal otherwise, but with the Yankees that’s like hitting third in a normal lineup. According to the Bill James Handbook, Yankee Stadium had a home run index of 170 for left-handers last season, which led the majors. Put differently, it was 70 percent easier to hit homers there than the rest of the parks in the league. The HR index is 141 for LHB since the stadium’s inception. Granderson is a career .268 hitter, and don’t be surprised if he sets a career-high in homers this year.
So basically, members of the Phillies’ rotation are A-holes?
Man barks at dog. Gets arrested.
Sean Burnett is a former first round pick (back in 2000) and was very good last season, recording 62 strikeouts with 20 walks over 63.0 innings, resulting in a 2.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Maybe he’s finally figured it out, but it’s worth noting he was essentially the pitcher he’s always been when looking at velocity and pitch type, which is someone with a career 1.6:1 K:BB ratio. In fact, Burnett has recorded 102 strikeouts to 76 walks over 157.0 career innings versus right-handers, and the lefty won’t be protected there in the closer’s role. Drew Storen had a shaky spring, posting an 11.12 ERA, and he’s allowed two runs (one earned) over 2.2 innings since the season started, but that’s all been accompanied by a 12:4 K:BB ratio over 14.0 innings, so he hasn’t pitched as poorly as the cosmetic stats suggest. His stuff is better than Burnett’s, so while fully aware we are paying for roles as much as skills in fantasy baseball, I’d still be targeting Storen in trade talks right now. He’s the guy the franchise wants to see runaway with the job anyway…As for other middling fantasy closers, could things have started better for Joel Hanrahan? Not only has he already recorded four saves, but Evan Meek has been tattooed for seven runs (four earned) over 2.2 innings, further solidifying Hanrahan in the ninth inning role.
I’m pretty obsessed with the new TV On The Radio. It’s now official – they are one of my three favorite groups over the past decade.
Zach Britton is probably long gone in your league by now, but even with all the normal pitching in the A.L. East caveats applying, the rookie was a must-add. His opportunity came earlier than expected with Brian Matusz’s unfortunate injury, and Britton didn’t disappoint during his first career start, holding the Rays scoreless over six innings despite lacking his normal sinking fastball, usually his go-to pitch. He allowed just three hits nevertheless, and his ability to induce groundballs in the minors should translate well in the big leagues. But as far as rookie pitchers go, Brandon Beachy looks to be the better guy to own this year, and not just because he plays in the easier league. At first I thought the Braves were crazy for choosing him over Mike Minor, and while the latter still has a bright future himself, maybe the former isn’t just keeping the seat warm in Atlanta. Beachy went undrafted, but that looks like a huge mistake now, as his strong spring training was backed by absolutely dominant numbers over Double and Triple-A as a 23-year-old last season (11.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9). I ignored him during my fantasy drafts, and it looks like it’s going to be at my own peril.
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