By Dalton Del Don
Batting average is such a fluky stat. Everyone talks about how unpredictable pitching can be, but make no mistake, hitters fluctuate year-to-year an awful lot as well. Take Aaron Hill, who saw his average drop from .286 in 2009 all the way down to .205 last year. His K rate jumped some (from 14.4% to 16.1%), but it was relatively modest, and his walk rate actually saw a similar improvement. Hill’s .196 BABIP was the lowest mark in baseball over the past 30 years (it might actually be the lowest ever, as it was tedious looking at this year-by-year, so that’s as far back as I went, because I’m lazy. The second lowest was Dave Kingman’s .204 in 1986, and it’s interesting that Mark McGwire finished with the lowest BABIP three times over this span, with marks of .214, .223 and .214 from 1989-1991), which really is saying something. Of course, part of this was due to his approach, as his 54.2 FB% was remarkably high, but that also enabled him to hit 26 homers (while missing 24 games) even in a serious down year, and there’s every reason to believe plenty of bad luck was also involved. Hill is one season removed from hitting 36 homers with 103 runs scored and 108 RBI and is a career .270 hitter. Now is the time to buy him.
This incident is pretty horrifying.
As a collective culture, have we ever witnessed anything quite like what’s happening with Charlie Sheen right now? As oversaturated as it’s become, I still say he’s underrated. Winning!
If you prorate Coco Crisp’s numbers from last season over 150 games, you get this: .279-16-102-76-64. On a per game basis, that made him the 10th most valuable fantasy player according to Baseball Monster. Of course, there’s little chance he can ever again maintain such a pace, and he remains one of the bigger injury risks in all of baseball (he’s averaged 64 games missed over the past five seasons). But while last year may go down as his peak, he’s always been productive when on the field, including terrific defense. Crisp has been successful on a remarkable 85.2% of his stolen base attempts (115-of-135) over the past five years, and few guys with his blazing speed also offer decent pop like him. There are other negatives though, namely him playing in Oakland and also a recent arrest (quick side rant: it’s “drunken” driving, not drunk driving. Also, printing that someone “was arrested for DUI” is libelous. It should be noted “on charges of” or “suspicion of” but it’s done otherwise all the time). I digress. Anyway, Crisp has a cool name and is someone to target later in drafts.
In the word’s truest definition, it’s ironic Domino’s Pizza actually saved a life.
Hey, if my house nearly burned down, I’d probably kick back a few beers myself.
There are quite a few pitchers with huge K rates and poor command in baseball. But none might be as extreme as Brandon Morrow. He was shut down in September thanks to an innings limit, but if he had qualified, his K rate (10.95/9) would have led baseball by a wide margin (Tim Lincecum’s 9.79 was the highest). In fact, Morrow’s mark would have been the highest among qualified hurlers since 2004 – although the leader then was Oliver Perez (10.97), which certainly isn’t a desirable comp. Morrow also has extremely shaky control (4.06 BB/9), although he showed modest improvement over the second half last year. Even considering the numerous no-hitters, Morrow’s performance against the Rays on August 8 (complete game shutout in a 1-0 win with his only hit allowed being a single with two outs in the ninth and a 17:2 K:BB ratio) was the single most dominant pitching performance of 2010. He leaves little margin for error walking so many batters, especially in the A.L. East, but last year’s .342 BABIP is likely to come down, and if he makes further improvements on his walk rate, Morrow is the type of player who could win your fantasy league for you. His strikeout potential is second to none.
So I watched “Hall Pass” last weekend, and like most Farrelly brothers movies these days, it was both awful and hilarious at the same time. Definitely had its moments though. Speaking of, I can’t say I’d be against this sequel.
Pitching prospects to look at in A.L.-only leagues, speed round: Kyle Gibson looks like a potential future ace, especially with Target Field on his side, and he may get an opportunity this season, but it’s likely to come later in the year (he’s worth a stash in deep formats)…Kyle Drabek is a favorite to open the year in Toronto’s rotation, so he’s definitely worth a look. He was the main piece in the Roy Halladay trade, but he’s fighting an uphill battle pitching in the A.L. East…Teammate Zach Stewart is lesser known and will come much cheaper, and while he’s unlikely to open the year in the rotation, he could easily overtake the likes of Jesse Litsch and/or Marc Rzepcynski later on (worth a stash in deep formats)…Zach Britton could get an opportunity in Baltimore immediately. Strong groundball rate, but again, has to pitch in the A.L. East. Still worth a look…Michael Pineda is in a class by himself. He’s unlikely to be in Seattle right away, but he’s head and shoulders above the rest of this list and should be worth more in four months than the rest of them would be in a full season. Pineda is a special talent who’s possibly worth stashing even in deeper mixed leagues.
I really enjoyed this story about a news reporter breaking up a fight.
Over the past seven seasons, Aramis Ramirez has averaged 28 homers and 96 RBI while batting .295, and that’s with him missing 32 games per year. Of course, recently his health has become an even bigger question, as various injuries have forced him to miss 118 games over the past two years. He’s still managed 40 homers and 148 RBI over 206 games during that span, so his bat hasn’t slowed much after turning 30 years old. Although one aspect does jump out – strikeouts. Ramirez has always fanned far less than most sluggers throughout his career, but last year he struck out 90 times over 465 ABs. His career-high is 100 Ks, and that occurred in 2001 over 603 at-bats. Maybe the increased K rate has to do with age. Or his injuries. Or it was totally random. One thing is for sure – those strikeouts had nothing to do with last year’s extremely low .245 BABIP. Ramirez will always be an injury concern, and even more so the older he gets, but he’s always productive when on the field, so now might be the time to buy the .282 lifetime batter coming off a year in which he hit .241 and is viewed as on the downside of his career. Look at it this way – would you have preferred him to hit 25 homers with 83 RBI over 600 at-bats last year or over just 465 ABs (like he did)?
I swear, this wasn’t me (the evidence is that the guy was against Cutler, not that he wasn’t clothed).
There are a lot of strong projection systems out there, and Baseball Prospectus’ ranks among the best, but I don’t understand it pegging the Cardinals as favorites to win the NL Central even after Adam Wainwright’s season-ending injury. In fact, they still give them a 43.8% chance to make the playoffs, which seems extreme. Even before Wainwright’s injury, I would have given them a 33.3% chance to win their division (I actually had them finishing third, but it was a coin toss), and with the Braves and the N.L. West loser all strong WC contenders, not to mention the possibility of a team coming out of nowhere and surprising, I have to disagree, especially since St. Louis appeared to be built as a classic “stars and scrubs” team. I’ll never put anything past St. Louis’ management, but to me, the Cardinals are now pretty big underdogs in a suddenly deep N.L. Central.
This weekend I’ll be in Phoenix competing in LABR, and this year, it will actually be broadcast live, so check it out if you’re bored Sunday night.
In 2009, Jonathan Papelbon recorded 76 strikeouts and walked 24 batters over 68 innings, which resulted in a 1.85 ERA. Last year, he recorded 76 strikeouts and walked 28 batters over 67 innings, which resulted in a 3.90 ERA. ERA is a fickle stat to begin with, but this highlights just how ridiculous it can be with relievers. In fact, digging deeper, he gave up just two more homers last season compared to 2009, his BABIP wasn’t drastically different (.278 vs. 287), and he even improved his GB% quite a bit (26.7% vs. 38.3%). The only real difference in performance was the timeliness of his hits allowed, as his LOB% tumbled (89.3% vs. 68.7%), and batters hit .298 with RISP. Papelbon started throwing a split-fingered fastball more last season, but he was essentially the same pitcher he was in 2009, despite his ERA increasing by more than two full runs. He remains an easy top-five fantasy closer.
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