The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Over the last two seasons while on the road, Adrian Gonzalez has hit .311 with 48 homers, 105 runs scored and 122 RBI over 161 games. It’s not exactly a secret him moving from the best pitcher’s park in Petco to one of the better hitter’s parks in Fenway should absolutely boost his numbers, not to mention the huge lineup upgrade in Boston. It wouldn’t surprise me even a little if Gonzalez finished 2011 as the No. 1 overall fantasy player. However, I worry about the offseason shoulder surgery, a procedure that can sometimes take some time to fully recover. If he were 100 percent healthy, he’d easily be the No. 2 player on my board. As is, he’s much safer as a late first round pick.

This guy takes diving in soccer to a new level.

A worthwhile read about the deteriorating movie industry.

Carlos Quentin has averaged 27.7 home runs over the past three seasons, which looks pretty enticing when you consider he’s averaged just 428 at-bats per year over that span. Of course, this also highlights just how injury-prone Quentin has become (he set a career-high by appearing in 131 games last season), and he’s also a career .251 hitter. Remarkably, .251 is also his career BABIP. Of course, it wouldn’t be wise to expect that to suddenly creep toward .300, especially since he’s such an extreme fly ball hitter, but since his contact rate isn’t so bad for a power hitter, he’s probably more likely to hit .260 this year than .240 like he has the past two seasons. Quentin is poor defensively and benefits greatly from his home park, but the power upside is very real. I’m buying.

A new form of carpooling.

I’m beginning to think Tommy Morrison’s perception of reality is out of whack.

Sticking with enigmas on the White Sox, Edwin Jackson appears to be the opposite of most pitchers, actually preferring to play in the American League. After a solid season in Detroit in 2009 (3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.3:1 K:BB), he flat out flopped in Arizona last year (4.0 BB/9), only to throw better than at any other point in his career after a midseason trade to Chicago (77:18 K:BB ratio over 75.0 innings). In fact, he had a three-start stretch in which he posted a 32:6 K:BB ratio and walked just one batter in five of his final seven starts. It’s hard to tell if a light switch really went on for the former top prospect, and it’s worth mentioning his schedule was rather easy after joining the White Sox, but he remains intriguing thanks to impressive fastball velocity, and he even saw his GB% jump by more than 10% last year compared to 2009 – all the way to 49.4%, which would be a key skill to maintain now pitching in U.S. Cellular Field.

Interesting stuff regarding life expectancy.

Seems everyone is talking about the new book “Forecasting,” and I found this review enlightening.

What C.J. Wilson did last year transitioning from the pen to a starter was impressive, and while he’s not going to require an especially high pick in 2011, he’s someone to treat cautiously. For one, he saw his workload increase from the year prior (which was a career-high) by a whopping 154.2 innings, which is almost unheard of. He did so while also walking the most batters in the American League, so it comes as no surprise he was awfully lucky in BABIP (.266) and HR/FB% (5.3%), the latter being even more fortunate considering his home park. While some of the same concerns can be said about teammate Colby Lewis, his underlying peripherals are much more impressive (8.78 K/9, 2.91 BB/9). As a fly ball pitcher in Texas, he’s likely to give up too many homers to post an elite ERA, but last season’s 1.19 WHIP looks for real. Many will want to see him do it again before becoming a true believer, so Lewis looks like an undervalued commodity.

As if the Oakland Coliseum wasn’t enough of a dump as is.

Good stuff regarding quarterbacks and sacks taken (although the headline is misleading, since Ben Roethlisberger was suspended the first four games of the season).

Jered Weaver is an interesting case entering 2011, as his previous career-high K rate was 7.68/9 before jumping all the way to 9.35/9 last season. In fact, he led all of baseball with 233 strikeouts, while also posting a career best walk rate (2.17/9). He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, so while last year’s BABIP (.276) may rise some, it’s worth noting his career mark is .283, so a major correction there isn’t necessarily in store. But can he maintain that strikeout rate, or something close to it? If you believe so, he arguably should be treated as a top-three fantasy starter, although he certainly won’t cost as much. And starting off last year’s baseline, he could regress some and still be among the 10-15 most valuable fantasy starters. It just depends how much you believe in such an increase in performance during a career-year that occurred during Weaver’s fifth season in the league.

Video game urinals? Video game urinals.

Finally watched the series finale of “Friday Night Lights,” and I must say, the last season could arguably be its best. Amazing how a show could remain so terrific despite changing 80% of its cast throughout its running. It’s too bad such quality has been watched by so few.

Before suffering a broken foot last year, Dustin Pedroia was quietly having possibly the most productive season of his career. If you projected his stats over just 150 games, he was on pace to finish with this line: .288-24-106-82-18. He seemed to consciously sacrifice strikeouts (his 12.6 K% was still strong, but his previous high was 8.1%) in order to add power (his .205 ISO was by far a career-high). Chase Utley’s slugging percentage has dropped each of the past three seasons (it’s important to note he actually hit more groundballs than fly balls last year) and an already injury-prone player (he consistently leads MLB in hit by pitch) is quite a risk now at age 32 playing such a vulnerable position on the diamond. Robinson Cano is great (and his durability has been impressive) but just realize if Pedroia hadn’t gone down last season, their stats would have been close to equal, mostly because of the stolen base discrepancy (for that matter, Rickie Weeks and Ian Kinsler are the two second basemen with the most fantasy upside, but their even riskier as far as health is concerned), and it’s also worth pointing out Pedroia’s career BA (.305) is right in line with Cano’s (.309). All that said, while I was ready to go all contrarian and call Pedroia my No. 1 second baseman for 2011, this report regarding the status of his foot is no doubt disconcerting.

Did anyone check out Jay Mariotti on Jason Whitlock’s podcast? Here are some highlights: Mariotti showed zero contrition for his arrest, named Dan Shaughnessy and Skip Bayless among his two favorite writers, doesn’t read Bill Simmons because his articles are too long (“who has the time?”), never heard of A.J. Daulerio, didn’t directly address what Whitlock was asking him in at least half his responses because he apparently didn’t understand the questioning, has never seen “The Wire” (and more importantly, it was unclear if he had ever even heard of the show) and vehemently denied having a “shtick” on “Around The Horn” – although after hearing the podcast, that last part might be true, and that really was him being his true self all along. This is not a good thing.

I’ve reached for younger players with upside less and less over recent years, finding more value in veterans, but there are two especially intriguing hitters I’d be willing to buy the hype and pay the price tag for this year, and they are Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton. And the more I look into it, the more I’m starting to prefer the latter, and that’s without considering Stanton’s current ADP is 100 picks lower. Heyward has more SB potential and much better plate discipline, and it’s possible that thumb injury really affected last year’s stats, which were still quite impressive for a 20-year-old, but it doesn’t look like a fluke he finished with four fewer homers than Stanton despite getting 161 more at-bats. Heyward actually posted a 2.03 GB/FB ratio last season, which translated into a 55.1 GB%, which was the seventh highest in baseball. To put that into perspective, the six players above him COMBINED for 24 home runs. There’s no doubt Stanton is a BA risk with all those Ks, but at 6-5, 233 lbs, he’s already one of the strongest players in major league baseball, so I’m a believer in his HR/FB% (22.9). That he hit so poorly at home (.182/.272/.327) and against left-handers (.218/.253/.391) suggests there’s significant room for improvement too. Both Stanton and Heyward could appear in a dozen All-Star games before all is said and done, but the former’s fantasy value is much closer to the latter’s than the current ADP suggests.

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14 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. i am jack's fantasy baseball team Avatar
    i am jack’s fantasy baseball team

    awesome column. Loved the article on Hollywood.

  2. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Meh, really? Summer movies have sucked since at least the mid-80s, and Hollywood have been whores for merchandising since ‘Star Wars’, neither is much of a revelation. Since the most ardent moviegoers (esp. in summer when school is out) are teenage boys, and since teenage boys are, almost without exception, morons, it follows as an inexorable logical corollary that popularity within that demographic is usually a surefire sign that a given thing is almost certainly dogshit on its own merit (*cough* Call of Duty *cough*). Going to a theater in June looking for ‘Citizen Kane’ at this point is about as sensible as looking for Joy Division or Magnetic Fields on Pat Robertson’s iPod, or attempting to discuss Enlightenment philosophy with your grandmother. The thing I liked about the article is that the movie it used as its exception to the prevailing rule is the one that Dalton hated so much. Hehehehe.

  3. Jim Lahey, Trailor Park Supervisor Avatar
    Jim Lahey, Trailor Park Supervisor

    Video game urinals? I think I might have to go back to Japan.

  4. Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover Avatar
    Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover

    Ugh. Offered Dom Brown and Pedro Alvarez for Jason Heyward in my keeper league and got rejected. This from a team that needs a third baseman and made inquiries about Brown. Oh well.

    In other exciting (to me) news, I got the top pick in my 14-team points league. I think this will be the first time I’ve ever owned Pujols. (Or will I?)

  5. Jim Lahey, Trailor Park Supervisor Avatar
    Jim Lahey, Trailor Park Supervisor

    DW can’t resist kicking CoD while it’s down, even with an indirect kick to the ribs. Quite sad really…the franchise used to mean something. However, one cannot deny that Activision (Bobby Kotick) is bleeding the series dry, following the same fate as Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk. At first, Black Ops felt like an anomaly; its connectivy issues, sub-par weapons and piss poor maps spoke more to Treyarch’s inadequacies than the downfall of the series, but alas, the writing is on the wall for CoD. That said, not all of its devoted fans are 12-year old boys, screaming, dropping N-bombs and abusing the game. There was a large population of skilled players who have rocked the game since its inception, and rocked it quite well.

    On to Battlefield, your undisputed game of the milleniums. To say you overhyped this game is an understatement. Yes, it offers a different, dare I say ‘mature’ dynamic that was lost on CoD. CoD is a run-and-gun, arcade style FPS, meant for quick-twitch players (and believe it or not, many of these players play with strategy and play to win). BF offers large-scale action with vehicular mahem. Its maps are awesome. I love the implementation of bullet drop, although its lame attempt at replicatating the mil-dot ratio is laughable, but I guess you got to start somewhere for a console shooter. Which brings me to my main issue with this game…the people who boast over BF’s “realism” need to check themselves. I guess it’s realistic for soldiers not to shoot from prone. I guess it’s realistic for a .50 BMG round not to create a cantalope-sized exit hole in someone’s torso, if not cut them in half altogether.

    The game can be exciting, if your squad is actually playing the objective, but more times than not, it is like watching paint dry. One game of Rush can seem like an eternity, especially when the majority of the game’s players are in vehicles. The game lacks both adrenaline and addiction. There is no carrot for the victor. The progression process is slow and unrewarding. Whether I go +10 in a win, or -10 in a loss, the game feels the same.

    Maybe I’m getting old. I have been contemplating video game retirement, and with the garbage (including CoD and EVERYTHING ELSE) on the upcoming dockett, I’m likely to punch in my time card. But seriously, give it a rest. CoD was once a proud franchise, and although it clearly has jumped the shark, BF is not king by default. It has as much ‘Blah blah blah, red screen- SOO REAAL” as any other FPS. I gave the game a shot, much based on your glowing recommendation, but honestly, it’s meh. Meh. I should have never sold my XBox…at least I’d be able to find a game without having to sign out and back.

  6. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    There are more than enough bushwookie retards in all these types of games as it is–removing prone at least imposes a big toll on these losers who sit way in the back and contribute nothing to the game, in that at least one person on your team is going to spot them, at which point Uncle Carl and his 500+ meter range and big splash damage makes an appearance (assuming I haven’t already flanked them and used the knife or drill to redecorate the back of their skull). I love that they did that and as not happy prone making a reappearance in BF3, realism or no.

    Yes, there are still plenty of useless jackasses who hang back and do nothing, getting a couple of cheap but high-value kills each round, while contributing zero close-in spawn points, zero spots via motion sensors, etc. but they’re effectively marginalized, and if they have to be included, BF does a better job of clipping this detestable habit by neutering the class than anyone else (other than Valve in TF2, where snipers are basically just pinatas for decent soldiers/pyros/spies). I’ve been saying for years that some developer should just make a game called “Sniper”, featuring matches of dozens of individual retarded snipers just hiding in foliage and taking potshots at each other all game. There needn’t be any teams or any objective at all, it would be lost of these people anyway. It would be heaven for the nimrods who love that style of play, and siphon those jackasses away from the games where people are actually trying to use teamwork.

    If you’re having trouble finding a decent game, you’re playing with the wrong people. I’ve been level 50 since last Summer and was at one point ranked in the top 1000 worldwide, but I have a negative K:D ratio (0.87). The game rewards players who commit to the objective and punishes those who camp in the back like fairies, which is the way it should be. If I can maintain a skill level in the 190/200 range while running a significant deficit in the kill department, that speaks to the balance of the gameplay. As far as it being slow or lacking adrenaline or addiction, I’m sorry but I don’t have much of a response. Everyone knows the pace is different than COD or Halo. You could probably fit every single Black Ops multiplayer map within the virtual physical space of Atacama Desert or Heavy Metal, seriously. Hell, maybe twice over. Obviously the pace is going to ebb and flow. Maybe it’s pointless, it’s not like there’s any real chance Michael Bay fans are going to enjoy a Malick movie. If you demand constant gunfire, 100% of the time, with no coherent build-up of an offensive, then yes, COD is your game over BF any day of the week. And of course there is “skill” attached to the twitch style of gameplay. I never said otherwise. I simply value cerebral performance more than muscle memory as far as my preferred yardsticks go.

    As far as the “realism” still being wanting, I don’t get all hung up on that. Every time someone tries to make a realistic shooter (try Operation Flashpoint: Dragon Rising for a recent example), no one likes or plays it. Great, a realistic game you can go inhabit by yourself. *thwackthwackthwack* Yes, I’ve been pissed as hell when I dropped a load of 00 buck into someone’s face from five feet away only to have them keep charging and knife me, but that’s more than offset by the times I pull off insane shit like stabbing a guy in midair whilst parachuting, or hitting a moving enemy Blackhawk with a UAV missile.

    As for your 360, ha! Logging out of an account and back in (probably a 20 second procedure) one time was such a hassle that you pine for the days of paying a yearly fee for the privilege of playing games on hardware that runs at a decibel level in excess of that which you’d find on the flight deck of an aircraft carrier and which sports a service life expectancy measured in months? Yes, yes, that’s great, and every time Ryan Braun strikes out with runners in scoring position, I desperately wish the Brewers were still rocking Geoff Jenkins in left, because obviously there were no holes in his game. (Damn you lack of smarmy eye-rolling emoticons!)

  7. Jim Lahey,Trailer Park Supervisor Avatar
    Jim Lahey,Trailer Park Supervisor

    DW, thanks for your response, and I appreciate your perspective. I’m sorry if my response came off as a pure attack of Bf, as it was mostly intended to insist that not all CoD fanboys are the
    moronic, Michael Bay movie goers that you make them out to be. That’s a pretty big, overused generalization, much like the notion that all snipers sit back and aim for moneyshots at the expense of objectives. Whether I move from zone to zone with the m95, spotting and killing attackers, or quickscoping on my way to arming the base, I always try to pull out a win while wearing the ghillie. Not many gamers can effectively use a sniper as a OSK weapon at any range for any situation, but we do exist. Next time you see a guy clear out a base, arm the bomb and mortar the respawn zone- give the guy his props. It can be a fun game when your team is trying to win, but be careful not to generalize. A slough of cod players are making the switch, and a large majority are jack of all trade marksmen who do what it takes.

  8. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    I don’t call those types of players “snipers”, I call them “recon” after the DICE nomenclature, FWIW. Honestly, a good recon player is basically the _only_ defense against guys who play the “infiltrating wreckingball” style like I do–I can easily wipe out unaware tanks with a pair of MkII C4 charges or flank a heavy MG without breaking stride, and even a four-man squad can easily be circumnavigated or slain in a surprise lighting assault w/ a G3 or auto shotty (esp. once you become adept w/ going to the pistol once your first clip is out), but once I hear those orbs coming down, I know I’m in trouble as I’m almost always way out ahead of the rest of the team and really need stealth to do my thing. Plus, I’ve experimented with a four-man Recon squad w/ all players on mics and each one cycling through mortar strikes on an opponent’s base in succession, for a nearly continuous rain of artillery, and that was pretty fearsome, although it does require discipline a lot of people don’t have. Recons will definitely fuck shit up….when they play right.

    There are definitely good players who play that class. Trust me, though–at hundreds of hours in now, the overwhelming preponderance of guys who do play that class don’t play right, they play bushwookie, forcing you to resquad and still play a man short. Sometimes more, I’ve seen four or five “snipers” squatting in bushes in the back of the map in a giant circle jerk on god knows how many occasions. It’s awesome when it’s happening to other team–I mean, the competition goes way down, obviously, but you can probably guess how fun it is to run down a staggered line of enemy snipers, knifing each in the back as they sit there, stupid and impassive. I would seriously bet cash that I’ve knifed at least 700 snipers. They just don’t get it, the game will eat you alive if you drop anchor, you have to stick and move. Move move move move move, that’s basically my motto. Like Patton said, fixed positions are monuments to the stupidity of man.

    The best thing BF3 could incorporate (beyond the jets, of course) would be an in-squad kick vote (and maybe some sort of no-play/avoid list as well). Ok, gotta run, but do drop a line whenever, I’m frequently playing lately as it’s been a horrid winter in northern MN and I pretty much hate all winter sports to begin with.

  9. Jim Lahey,Trailer Park Supervisor Avatar
    Jim Lahey,Trailer Park Supervisor

    You have resold me. Next time I’m on and catch you on Netflix , I’ll hit you up and do this for real. It’s not a turtle beach by any means, but I have a mic.

  10. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Man, it’s been a while…I love me some Scoop.

    Better bet for a bounce back year: Beltran or Sizemore? Is either one better than Markakis who’s finally dropping to ~10th round or so?

    After I saw the Oakland beer headline, I spent a few hours in a beer-fueled rage, but it does seem like it’s more of a case of the vendors over-filling the smaller beer, rather than full-blown shamockery, but all beer prices at the piss hole are horrendous. That’s why you’ll find me drinking in the BART parking lot. hurrah!!

    I’m heading to Spring Training for the first time on the 17th; I’m pretty damn excited, though I’m traveling with a Giants fan, and they’ve all come out of the fucking woodwork, even though most of them hadn’t heard of Jonathan Sanchez before his no-hitter. That said, Brian Wilson is awesome, and nothing would make me happier than ending up at the same bar at some point.

    DDD, are you able to give a review of the new Radiohead, or would it just be one long orgasm?

  11. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Speaking of summer movies, everyone bitches about what a barren landscape it is, but watch, no one will show up to see ‘Tree of Life’ come this summer. Meanwhile, Transformers 18 or whatever will sell 50M tickets. If ‘Tree’ even approaches 10M, it’ll only be because of Pitt’s drawing power, even though the director has been cinema’s finest since Kubrick and Kurosawa died in ’98-99. It’s sad.

    http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/fox_searchlight/thetreeoflife/

  12. Nat Avatar
    Nat

    I second that DW. See you in the theaters.

  13. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Keith – I guess I’ll actually say Beltran. But I like Markakis over both.

    Bart parking lot – I’m with you there.

    Have fun at spring training. I’ve heard it’s good times. Love the area there.

    Still digesting Radiohead. (and by that I mean orgasming)

  14. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    DW – I have seen that trailer before, but I’m def. in for that movie as well. It better be good – we won’t get another Malick film for another 5 years at least.

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