The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Jay Bruce is hardly a sleeper, but his allure as baseball’s best prospect is definitely in the rearview mirror, as injuries have been a problem throughout his young career, and he’s (rightfully) perceived as a batting average risk thanks to a high strikeout rate. However, his upside remains immense. Bruce clubbed a whopping 15 homers over his final 105 ABs last season and suddenly started hitting southpaws (he posted an .899 OPS versus left-handers after finishing with .562 and .643 marks against them over his first two years in the league, respectively). Bruce’s numbers have been greatly helped by his home park, and while that makes him less valuable in real life, it counts all the same in fantasy terms. Over the first three seasons of their careers, Evan Longoria has averaged one homer every 19.6 at-bats compared to Bruce’s one HR per 18.6. Of course, I’m not suggesting anyone draft Bruce ahead of Longoria, but it’s also worth noting the former enters this season still just 23 years old. Bruce, who is also capable of contributing 10 steals or so and should move up in the lineup while entering his prime, is one of my favorite prop bets to lead the Senior Circuit in homers in 2011.

If I’m ever robbed, I can only hope it’s by this polite gentleman.

If I’m ever woken up on the subway, I can only hope it’s not by this.

Ben Zobrist went from being a legitimate MVP candidate in 2009 (he actually led the American League in WAR, but that’s only because we haven’t developed a proper way to credit catching, as Joe Mauer was clearly the league’s most valuable player) to being a huge bust last season. Put differently, he saw his OPS drop from .948 to .699. His true talent almost certainly lies somewhere in between, but that’s a bit obvious, so the real question is which extreme does it lie closer to. Zobrist hit an anemic .177 after last year’s All-Star break, but that was accompanied by a 44:41 K:BB ratio, suggesting plenty of bad luck was involved. All along he remained effective defensively and on the base paths (he was successful on 24 of 27 SB attempts), and as I’ve said before, it’s highly unlikely Tropicana Field plays as the toughest hitter’s park in baseball again like it did last season. Thanks to a strong walk rate, even during his disastrous campaign in 2010, he was still able to post a .346 OBP, so he should find himself penciled into the lineup one way or another in 2011. Since he’ll be second base eligible in fantasy leagues, he’s an excellent “last year’s bum” target.

Arcade Fire winning Best Album at the Grammy’s was pretty cool, but by far the best music news of the week was the revelation of a new Radiohead being released Saturday. I’m struggling to come up with anything that would make me happier.

Speaking of the Grammy’s – I post this, but I feel bad for doing so.

Can someone help explain why David Ortiz’s ADP is 197.6? After missing significant time in 2008, burning plenty of fantasy owners who spent a top pick on him in the process, he then followed that up by batting .238 in 2009 and then subsequently posted a .143/.238/.286 line last April, so I can understand why some wrote him off. However, despite the hideous first month last season, Ortiz still finished with a .270-32-86-102 line (while missing 17 games), and is it unreasonable to at least partially attribute his poor 2009 to the prior year’s wrist injury? There’s no doubt Big Papi’s best days are behind him, his K rate continues to climb, he struggles mightily against lefties (I actually prefer players with huge splits like this in daily formats), and selecting a DH certainly hurts your flexibility, but he’s also 35 years old, not 40. And he still has the benefits of Fenway Park and a terrific lineup, and he’ll also be playing for a new contract this year (whatever that’s worth). As usual, old, boring veterans remain the market inefficiency in fantasy baseball. Speaking of which, if anyone wants to take a Vladimir Guerrero (whose ADP is currently 86.5) vs. Ortiz bet, I’m down.

This looks perfectly safe.

The “Ghost Ride” guy from above is lucky he wasn’t on this highway.

I don’t have a problem with Billy Butler; after all, he’s a 24-year-old who has belted 96 doubles over the past two seasons and posted a .388 OBP while walking nearly as many times as he struck out in 2010. This article also makes a pretty compelling case in his favor, and it wouldn’t shock me if he won a batting title as soon as this season. However, and maybe this has just occurred in those I’ve participated in, he’s still getting drafted awfully aggressively in fantasy leagues for someone lacking power. He might be able to reach 20-25 homers, but even that’s pretty difficult for someone who hits so many grounders (1.40 GB/FB ratio in his career). Moreover, playing in Kansas City immediately puts him at a disadvantage. He played in 158 games last season, hit .318 and got on base nearly 39% of the time, yet that resulted in just 77 runs scored and 78 RBI despite batting in the middle of the lineup.

Lengthy but an extremely interesting read regarding the lottery and how to beat it.

Did anyone catch the latest “HBO: Real Sports?” I recommend it. Good God, Sean Salisbury looks like a completely different human being. And I love how it didn’t take but five seconds before Mike Tyson vaguely threatened to beat up the interviewer. And I could only wish there was something in life that made me half as happy as pigeons do him.

To be fair, it’s probably healthier than the Meat Lovers Skillet.

Seems to me the naming of Joel Hanrahan as Pittsburgh’s closer was something of a no-brainer. Evan Meek was a former 12th round pick who essentially came out of nowhere last season and posted a 2.14 ERA despite a 2.3:1 K:BB ratio (thanks to a .224 BABIP), while Hanrahan, a former second round pick, struck out 100 batters over 69.2 innings while also flashing a better walk rate. Meek could remain a useful pitcher – his ability to induce groundballs is impressive, and he also saw his average fastball velocity rise to a career-high 95.1 mph last season, but it’s usually safest to bet on skill, and it’s hard not to conclude Hanrahan is the frontrunner here. Clearly inferior pitchers (closers) will be taken ahead of him on draft day.

This is downright embarrassing (and why is that guy buying vowels?).

I’d hate to be the driver following this guy.

I’m a big Carlos Gonzalez fan, so it pains me to say he’s going too early for my taste in 2011. This may be anecdotal (and frankly, I’m far too lazy to do the legwork), but I’m convinced drafting corner infielders early is the way to go (since this is the time to make the safest picks). Pitchers, middle infielders and yes, outfielders are just so much more volatile. Regarding CarGo, it’s easy to point to his .384 BABIP and declare regression, but to be more specific, his xBABIP compared to his real BABIP was the eighth biggest discrepancy in baseball, so while we can all acknowledge he’s easily capable of finishing with a .350 or so hit rate, last year’s number was seriously unsustainable. He can hit lefties, has the advantage of playing in Coors Field and actually got better as last season progressed (1.091 OPS after the ASB). I’m not going to call CarGo a bust, by any means, and while it was impressive to see him play through so many injuries last season, he’s still a health risk moving forward, and it’s quite a gamble paying for his 2010 stats this year.

The takeoff was cool, but I’m more interested in seeing the landing.

People will do anything to get me to link to them in my articles these days.

Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, there’s no question about that. Looking past his bat, he’s durable, seemingly a nice guy, terrific defensively and by most accounts, even the best baserunner in MLB. And if the reports are true, the Cardinals’ offer was insulting. That said, can we please move past this issue? There will be more than enough time to beat a dead horse over his contract situation, you know, when he actually becomes a free agent at the end of the season (especially with no NFL around, sadly. Seriously, I’m going to go in a clinical depression then. Don’t think I’m exaggerating).

Hey look, a real life Veronica Corningstone.

R.I.P. Uncle Leo.

This guy is the man.

I can appreciate the skepticism that still seems to surround Francisco Liriano (not only by fantasy owners but apparently by Twins management as well), since he remains an injury risk throwing so many sliders (33.8% last year was third most in MLB), and his 3.62 ERA wasn’t exactly elite despite allowing a crazy low 6.3 HR/FB%. In fact, before his last three starts, he had somehow managed to surrender just four home runs over 178.1 innings. However, there’s obviously quite a bit to like as well, as Liriano’s 9.4 K/9 ratio ranked fifth best in baseball (and his BB/9 was markedly better than the four pitchers in front of him in the category), and it’s safe to declare his .331 BABIP prevented him from getting more Cy Young votes (and while there are some changing parts in 2011, this looks even more unlucky when you consider the Twins finished with the sixth best team UZR in baseball last year). Only Roy Halladay’s xFIP (2.92) was better than Liriano’s (3.06) in 2010. Liriano’s average fastball velocity increased two full mph (from 91.7 to 93.7) last year compared to 2009, and his slider was easily the best in baseball (19.0 runs above average). He also induced an impressive 1.96 GB/FB ratio, something rare for such a strikeout pitcher, and while his HR/FB rate is sure to rise in 2011, it certainly doesn’t hurt that Target Field played as by far the toughest park to homer in last year (it’s just one year of data, but it could regress significantly and still be the toughest, and Liriano actually allowed twice as many homers at home than on the road last season). There are currently 22 pitchers with a higher ADP than Liriano, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.