Bet on It

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 2-0, winning my best bet. I’m now 7-3 during the postseason, going 2-1 on best bets. Onto the Super Bowl:

Steelers +2.5 at PACKERS (Best Bet)

Comments: Entering the Divisional Round this year, I was 12-25 ATS in the postseason dating back to when I started picking every game in 2007. I’ve since gone 6-0. I’m not exactly sure what this means, but one thing I’m positive of – I have very little feel for the Super Bowl. Full disclosure – I have a 30-1 futures bet (placed in Week 16 for $50) on Green Bay, so I’ll be a huge Packers fan Sunday. As far as hedging goes, I was somehow able to roll the points up to 3 in Reno this week, and it only cost me the normal 10% juice (this still seems incredibly insane, and the only explanation I can come up with is the book is basically begging people to put money on Pittsburgh at this point). Let’s get to some actual game analysis – Pittsburgh seems to have the advantage on defense, running the ball, experience and coaching, and even when you look at respective passing attacks – Big Ben’s 8.2 YPA is right there with Rodger’s 8.3 mark. But the Steelers’ dominant run defense may actually help Green Bay if it forces the team to rely heavily on its passing game, as Rodgers will be the best player on the field. Maurkice Pouncey’s absence may be a bit overblown (he received a -4.2 grade by Pro Football Focus this year), but there’s no doubt his replacement is a downgrade at a pretty important position. This is the lowest point spread in a Super Bowl in nearly 20 years, and it really could go either way, but the fact it’s being played on turf and in a dome no doubt helps Green Bay. In a coin flip, I’ll side with the Pack, if only because I’m going to be rooting heavily for them either way Sunday.


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One response to “Bet on It”

  1. Wright, Most the Time Avatar
    Wright, Most the Time

    Steelers +2.5 and over 44.5

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