Thursday Night Preview

Minnesota (+5.5) at New Orleans, Thursday 8:30 p.m.

Comments: The 2010 season opens with a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, which ended in a thrilling 31-28 overtime win by the Saints. In reality, New Orleans got lucky – not only winning the OT coin toss and getting the benefit of a subsequent questionable pass interference call, but Minnesota fumbled a whopping six times (losing three) and outgained New Orleans 475 yards to 257, so the Vikings pretty clearly outplayed them. With this in mind, you’d expect most to back Minnesota as nearly touchdown dogs, but instead a whopping 80 percent of the public has sided with the Saints, so apparently the Super Bowl produced an even greater recency effect. It’s not totally crazy – New Orleans will be fired up in primetime as defending champs, and it’s never easy for the road team during a short week. Moreover, the loss of Sidney Rice (hip) will hurt a passing attack that has pretty much nowhere to go but down after Brett Favre had the best season of his career at age 40. His ankle injury is a real concern this year as well. So is Percy Harvin’s migraine headaches. And the Vikings graded out as the worst run blocking unit in the NFL last season. Still, this is a team that could easily be considered the best from 2009 and is comfortable playing in a dome environment. Seems like the spread should be a field goal at most…The Saints remain a very good football team, but turnovers are fluky (especially interceptions, although in New Orleans’ case they do present more opportunities by scoring so many points offensively, and therefore forcing more pass attempts from opponents), so some regression there should be expected. Moreover, Darren Sharper, who tied for the NFL lead with nine picks last season, begins the year on the PUP list with a knee injury. Remember, New Orleans hadn’t made the playoffs since 2006 before last year, so it’s not like they are some perennial powerhouse. But having one of the league’s best players in Drew Brees is a great place to start, and the city of New Orleans should provide quite the boost Thursday night for the defending Super Bowl champions.

Predictions: Brett Favre throws for 240 yards with scoring strikes to Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe, while Adrian Peterson adds 100 rushing yards and a TD run. Pierre Thomas answers with 80 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, while Drew Brees adds 270 passing yards and two TDs, with Marques Colston and Devery Henderson the recipients, as New Orleans comes out on top. Saints 24-21.


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