By Dalton Del Don
Jimmy Clausen was pretty bad during his NFL debut, but Carson Palmer might have been even worse. He leads the league in passes that should have been intercepted but werenât. Heâs gotten just 5.8 YPA despite a strong WR corps and facing two defenses that have not played well this season (NE and CAR). If not for a Jonathan Stewart fumble, Sundayâs outcome could have been very differentâ¦I fear for Clausenâs safety if he doesnât start targeting Steve Smith more in the futureâ¦Sundayâs touchdown reception was the first of Cedric Bensonâs career. Still, heâs getting just 3.1 YPC. Call me crazy, but Iâd rather own Peyton Hillis moving forward.
The Patriots have given up 27.2 points per game, yielding 7.5 YPA and an NFL-high seven scores through the air. They have allowed opposing passers to accrue a 101.3 QB rating, despite facing the Bengals, Jets and Bills. This New England defense looks like a real weaknessâ¦That should actually be good news for Tom Brady owners, as the team will be forced to throw plenty, and heâs certainly enjoying his two new young tight endsâ¦BenJarvus Green-Ellis is an obvious must-own in all leaguesâ¦At this point, a Marshawn Lynch trade to Green Bay makes so much sense, as long as Buffalo is reasonable (hardly a guarantee)â¦Brady is on pace to finish the season with 4,043 passing yards, yet Wes Welker and Randy Moss somehow have combined for just 286 yards over three games. Thatâs nuts.
The 49ersâ schedule has actually been relatively tough so far and they are staring 0-4 right in the face with a trip to Atlanta on Sunday, but this team has been hugely disappointing anyway you shape it. All three other NFC West teams won last week, and the team resorted to firing its offensive coordinator. Remember though, eight wins might legitimately win this division, and their schedule really eases up over the second half. I wonder what kind of odds you could get for them winning the NFC West entering Week 5 with an 0-4 recordâ¦The Chiefs are no fluke and could push the Chargers until the end, with a strong rookie class and a rushing attack that actually leads the NFL with 160.7 yards per game. Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel have plenty of flaws as head coaches, but they are good coordinators. With an easy schedule and one of the best home-field advantages in football, Kansas City is back on the map. Still, quarterback remains a big worry. Donât forget Matt Casselâs 45-yard touchdown to Dwayne Bowe came on a trick play, and another score came on possibly the catch of the year by Tony Moeakiâ¦After Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles is in the conversation as best back in football. Only Todd Haley prevents him from being in this conversation in fantasy termsâ¦Heâll probably get hurt, but Frank Gore could be in store for a truly monstrous season â heâs currently on pace to finish with 2,112 yards, 117 catches and 11 touchdowns. And again, the schedule is extremely easy over the second half of the year. Heâs clearly the No. 3 back in PPR formatsâ¦Not cool Shaun Smith, not cool at all.
Last weekâs fumble was costly, but lost in the Giantsâ disappointing start to the season is Ahmad Bradshaw emerging as a top-15 fantasy back. Heâs averaged 19.7 touches per game, and that number should only increase moving forward when the team plays better, and since Brandon Jacobs has averaged just 3.5 YPC. Remember, Bradshaw averaged 5.4 yards-per-touch last season while playing on two bum wheels, so he could prove to be plenty productive even if that number stays around 20. Target Bradshaw now before it becomes even more obvious just how valuable he can beâ¦The interceptions are a concern, as is the teamâs defense, but Eli Manning has completed 65.7% of his passes and gotten 7.9 YPA, which is highly encouraging. Sundayâs score against the Titans was misleading â donât go writing off the Giants just yetâ¦Chris Johnson has averaged just 4.0 YPC and his involvement in the passing game has been way down so far, but heâs faced the Steelers (2.6 YPC against) and is on pace to score 21 touchdowns. Owners have no reason to complain and should expect even more production moving forward.
Nice to see Joe Flacco live up to some of the preseason hype, and thereâs no doubt he played well Sunday. Maybe this is a contrarian view, but Iâd be selling Anquan Boldin high right now. No other receiver in the history of the NFL has averaged more yards per game (79.7), and heâs not sharing targets with another elite WR like Larry Fitzgerald anymore, but Boldin has scored double-digit touchdowns just once during his career, previously had a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing to him in a much easier division defensively and is definitely an injury concern, having played a full season just once over the past six yearsâ¦Conversely, Iâd be trying to buy Ray Rice low right nowâ¦The Browns are 0-3, but their losses have come against teams with a combined record of 7-2, and theyâve lost by an average of just 4.0 points per gameâ¦Baltimoreâs defense has taken a step back this season, but itâs hard not to like what Peyton Hillis did Sunday. Heâs not going to break many long runs and who knows if he can be durable with such a bruising style, but Hillis is a beast, rarely going down at first contact. Jerome Harrison will take away some touches once he returns, but Hillis has clearly established himself as Clevelandâs lead back, and heâs already racked up 14 receptions. Heâs suddenly a top-20ish fantasy back.
LeGarrette Blount needs to be added in all fantasy leagues. Heâs already locked down short-yardage work, and with Carnell Williams averaging a putrid 2.5 YPC (while also remaining a huge injury risk), Blountâs role in the offense should expand moving forward, assuming he can improve in pass protection. Preseason sleeper Kareem Huggins could also enter the mix, but Blount is the most talented back on Tampa Bayâs roster and seems to have really impressed coach Raheem Morris. The Bucsâ schedule is highly favorable after the bye, so Blount could prove to be a difference maker…Amazing what Pittsburgh has done with that QB situation. It blows my mind Vegas pegged this team with an over/under of 8.5 wins before the seasonâ¦With Tampa Bay down 38-6 in the fourth quarter at the Pittsburgh 36-yard line, coach Raheem Morris decided to punt on 4th and 2. You canât make this stuff up.
The Saintsâ two wins this season have come against two teams with a combined 1-5 record, and both victories were close. Donât get me wrong, New Orleans could have easily won Sunday, and the team is still strong, but theyâve predictably taken a step back compared to last yearâs version. The secondary has allowed 7.6 YPA and all those turnovers they forced in 2009 was in no way sustainableâ¦It looks like Lance Moore is the biggest beneficiary of Reggie Bushâs injury, but itâs become futile trying to predict which receiver produces on a weekly basis. Only Marques Colston can be used for fantasy purposesâ¦Up three points and faced with a 4th and 6 at the Saintsâ 37-yard line with 3:42 left in the fourth quarter, I applaud coach Mike Smithâs aggressive decision to go for it, even if they didnât convert.
Detroit entered Sunday having allowed 8.6 YPA, so it was discouraging to see Brett Favre throw two more picks and get just 5.9 YPA while playing at home. Minnesota is the rare team that welcomes a bye so early in the seasonâ¦Adrian Peterson has already been targeted 18 times in the passing game. Heâs primed for a career-yearâ¦As a Jahvid Best owner, this toe injury is quite worrisome, especially for a back who relies so much on speed. These tend to linger and can easily be aggravated. It would be tough to sit him, but Best is a risky start in Green Bay this week.
Nice to see Roy Williams show a pulse, but this Houston secondary is a real weakness. The Texans have allowed 9.1 YPA with six scores through the air, and they are one of only three teams yet to record an interception (the Ravens and Bills are the others)â¦Andre Johnson is as tough as it gets, but his ankle sprain appears to be a legitimate injury. A banged up Johnson could be in for a long day matched up with Nnamdi Asomugha on Sundayâ¦Arian Foster became the first running back to gain 100 rushing yards against the Cowboys since 2008. Heâs here to stay.
The Jaguars have allowed 66 points over the past two weeks and are nearly double-digit underdogs to the Colts on Sunday. A coaching change looks imminentâ¦Maurice Jones-Drew looked better last week, but if he doesnât turn in a big game at home against Indy this week, itâs officially time to panic. After scoring 16 touchdowns over the first 14 games last season, he has been held out of the end zone in each of the past five contestsâ¦LeSean McCoy should turn in a nice season, but itâs discouraging to see him get just 11 carries in a game the Eagles won 28-3. Heâs a strong RB2, but that usage prevents him from becoming an RB1â¦Both of Michael Vickâs last two games came against possibly the two worst secondaries in football, but heâs looked fantastic. While there was some concern how DeSean Jackson would perform with Kevin Kolb in a more traditional West Coast offense, Vickâs skill set is actually like Donovan McNabbâs (lacking accuracy but attacking downfield), so the previous worries have proven moot. No fantasy QB has as much upside as Vick.
Santana Moss hasnât missed a game since 2007, but heâs often suffered nagging hamstring injuries that have sapped his explosiveness, so he might be a sell-high candidate right now. But itâs only a health issue, because his performance so far is real. With such an improvement at quarterback in a better offensive system and with virtually no viable wide receivers competing for targets, Moss could approach his monstrous 2005 season (1,483 yards, nine TDs)â¦Mark Clayton looks like a rock solid WR2 moving forwardâ¦Forget all the Keiland Williams sleeper talk, apparently Ryan Torain is the Washington back to add in fantasy leagues. Something is clearly not right with Clinton Portis, who watched from the sidelines over the second half of last weekâs game. Torain might be the biggest injury risk in the league, but heâs always had legit talent, and Mike Shanahan was there when Denver drafted him. Torain is a serious sleeper to have major value down the road.
Despite struggling in the red zone, Kyle Orton continued to impress last week. Heâs gotten 8.6 YPA so far, which is unbelievable with Brandon Marshall out of town. Itâs worth noting Orton is entering a tough three-game stretch (@TEN, @BAL, NYJ), but the schedule is extremely easy after that. Heâs a QB1â¦Forget about relying on any of the four Denver receivers on a weekly basis. That situation is musical chairsâ¦Austin Collie is on pace to finish the season with 144 catches, 1,915 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns. Odds are he falls a little short of that pace, but I donât feel smart targeting Pierre Garcon at fantasy drafts this summerâ¦Iâm beginning to think Peyton Manning makes his receivers and not vice-versa.
Come on, Seabass, youâve got to be kidding me with that miss. He already has five misses this season after shanking just three all of last yearâ¦At this point, only health can prevent Darren McFadden from producing a huge fantasy seasonâ¦Going from Kurt Warner to Derek Anderson is like NBC replacing âParks and Recreationâ with âOutsourcedââ¦During CBSâ broadcast Sunday, Randy Cross (or maybe it was his partner) said Oakland was ârolling the diceâ going for it on 4th and 10 with a 1:09 left. They did not have all of their timeouts. What a gamble!
With poor run blocking, a middling defense and what appears to be the worst special teams unit in football, Philip Rivers may be asked to throw more than ever, which is huge news for fantasy owners. This might have been my favorite sequence Sunday: Rivers 12-yard TD pass to Antonio Gates. Called back by penalty. Very next play – Rivers 12-yard TD pass to Gates. Then, 2pt attempt converted, Rivers pass to Legedu Naanee. Called back by penalty. Very next play – 2pt attempt converted, Rivers pass to Naaneeâ¦With 22 seconds left in the first half at the Chargersâ 2-yard line, Seattle spiked the ball on second down. Then they called a QB sneak with no timeouts left the very next play, which proved to be the last of the half. Not good.
Over three games against the Jets during his career, Chad Henne has gotten 7.9 YPA with a 5:1 TD:INT ratio. Heâs gotten 6.2 YPA with a 10:14 TD:INT ratio over his other 15 games versus the rest of the leagueâ¦Crazy how good Mark Sanchez has been after looking so awful Week 1. Dustin Keller has been a fantasy stealâ¦Interesting analysis regarding whether the Jets should have gone for two Sunday.
I feel sorry for owners who lost Ryan Grant and then used a bunch of their FAAB to acquire Brandon Jackson. Thatâs a double whammyâ¦I fully expect Greg Jennings to have some big games this year, but there are way too many mouths to feed in that Green Bay offense. Despite the superior quarterback situation, heâs in a far worse situation than other receivers like Roddy White and Brandon Marshall, who will dominate targets. Jermichael Finley might actually be the Packersâ No. 1 receiverâ¦Over his last five games, Jay Cutler has posted a 14:3 TD:INT ratio. His current 9.6 YPA mark easily leads the NFLâ¦The final minute of Monday nightâs game has likely been beaten to death at this point, but it was truly mind-boggling to see each team be so stupid. Not only should Green Bay obviously have let them score, but what was Chicago thinking not just taking a knee? For once, Matt Forteâs ineptitude at the goal line was actually helpful. I already tweeted this (and yes, that was a shameless attempt of trying to get you to start following me), but forget the Packers, the biggest loser Monday night was common sense.
And now, since Iâm actually going to a The Black Keys concert Wednesday night, hereâs this:
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