The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Before we get started, I want to make sure you are all aware of my recent entries – so check out my podcast here, my barometer here and my training camp notes here. Moreover, expect my football rankings to be released later this weekend.

Carlos Gonzalez is currently on pace to finish the year batting .322 with 39 homers, 28 steals, 120 runs scored and 121 RBI. In other words, he’s essentially been the most valuable commodity in fantasy baseball this season. There’s certainly a lot to like, as he’s actually hit lefties (.964 OPS) better than righties (.903), and as a 24-year-old, it’s not crazy to assume CarGo is only going to get better, which is further evidenced by his huge numbers since the All-Star break (.354/.373/.708). Another argument – he’s a Coors Field product, with a 1.144 OPS at home versus a pedestrian .722 OPS on the road – while maybe valid, doesn’t really matter to fantasy owners, as that advantage is here to stay. Like a pitcher performing at a historical level, of course Gonzalez has been lucky in some aspects – posting a .369 BABIP and a 20.2 HR/FB%. Still, really digging deeper, Gonzalez is going to be risky at fantasy drafts next year, since he’s likely to cost you a top-five (or so) pick. A combination of his K rate (24.0%) and BB rate (4.5%) doesn’t exactly portend maintaining even close to such success.

Just when we think one of the best years for rookies can’t get any better, Jeremy “go to” Hellickson, Mike Minor and J.P. Arencibia (all must adds) are unleashed upon us. It’s been quite the year for young talent.

Torii Hunter commits the worst baserunning mistake of the season.

Masato Akamatsu makes the best catch of the season.

Ichiro Suzuki has already recorded more stolen bases this season (28) and walks (35) compared to last, but he’s been a fantasy disappointment nevertheless. To me, he’s always been a risk, since a big portion of his fantasy value was tied to batting average, which is kind of like pitching – it fluctuates yearly based on many factors beyond control. A .350 BA over 680 at-bats is extremely valuable, but a .310 BA with weak power, on the other hand, certainly isn’t worth his typical ADP. Ichiro’s slugging percentage is currently a career-worst, as is his LD% (17.8). In fact, his LD% has dropped in each of the past five seasons. His extreme success against fastballs last season (18.9 wFB) could not be more different in 2010 (-4.0 wFB), and while “lineup protection” has been proven as mostly a false concept, it’s hard to argue against those who claim Ichiro has been pitched around this year. Not only has both his K rate and BB rate jumped, but his Zone% (percentage of pitches seen inside the strike zone) is by far a career-low (45.5%). His defense remains strong, so it’s not like his athleticism is totally gone, and again, with BA being so fluid, maybe he’ll end up being a value at fantasy drafts in 2011. But with that LD% decline, I doubt I’ll be the one willing to find out.

This is even better if you pay close attention to the beginning, when the ice sculptor talks about how long he’s been working on his most recent piece of art.

In a year filled with dominant pitching, Brandon Morrow’s recent outing might have been the most impressive of all. In fact, according to Bill James’ “Game Score,” it tied for the fourth-best pitching performance of all time. Morrow can easily be lumped together with similar pitchers like Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa – guys who have strong strikeouts rates but also poor control. And while all have upside, it’s tough to predict who will eventually “get it.” But as a 26-year-old who’s fanned 10.67 batters per nine innings while pitching in the A.L. East this season, Morrow is highly intriguing. His current walk rate (4.03 BB/9) looks poor, but it’s worth noting those numbers went from 5.59 and 5.14 in April and May down to 2.73, 3.52 and 2.51 during the following three months, respectively, which is a huge difference. With a former top-five overall pick pedigree and as someone who was jerked around in the Seattle organization, Morrow’s potential is obvious – he’s averaged 93.6 mph with his fastball this season with a highly effective slider (9.3 wSL). Pitching in the A.L. East is a huge disadvantage, especially when you aren’t on one of the big three teams, but Morrow is someone to target in 2011 fantasy drafts, even if his recent outing brought a bunch of attention to him. I’m beginning to think the Mariners might regret trading him for a reliever.

I’m all for recycling, but beers at baseball games are already one of the most marked up items in society. “The Trop” really does sound like a dump. Get this awesome franchise in a worthy stadium, please.

Cole Hamels has allowed three runs or fewer in all eight starts since July started. He has recorded one win since June 13. He’s only “won” twice since May 21. Hamels has a 3.45 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, a 9.18 K/9, a 2.84 BB/9 and also a 3.55 xFIP. With a 7-8 record, I’m starting to question whether wins are the best method to evaluate pitchers.

I remain fascinated by Mark Prior, and there are updates about him both here and here.

Wandy Rodriguez entered his June 24 start with a 6.09 ERA. Over his next nine outings since then, he’s recorded a 59:11 K:BB ratio, lowering his ERA to 4.18 in the process. He’s also increased his groundball rate to a career-high 47.0% this season. There’s little doubt he’s now back to being a useful pitcher even in shallow mixed leagues. However, Rodriguez truly should be used only on a start-to-start basis, as his old home/road splits are as drastic as ever in 2010 (3.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP at home compared to 5.51 ERA, 1.59 WHIP on the road).

This guy’s honesty is off the charts.

I doubt it’s a coincidence Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury have struggled so much since returning to action. Maybe spring training is so long for a reason. Jimmy Rollins may fall into this category as well.

This whole story is so ridiculous but funny nevertheless. Harry Smith seems like a real asshole.

I know Jeff Francoeur was once on the cover of Sports Illustrated, but how can he honestly request a trade at this point? His career OBP is .309!

I’m no MMA expert (and not even close to as big of a fan as this guy), but that was a pretty terrific card Saturday. I could watch Roy “Big Country” Nelson take punches to the face and laugh them off like that all day long. And man, Anderson Silva continues to disappoint – dude got his ass beat and that win was extremely lucky.

Last week the Turner Field organist played “Puff The Magic Dragon” when Tim Lincecum walked to the plate. Pretty funny.

Dan Johnson, who has hit both cleanup and leadoff during his brief stint with the Rays so far, is batting just .143 over his first 21 at-bats with Tampa Bay and may soon lose his job if Carlos Pena can return to action. That said, his dominant Triple-A numbers (30 homers, 95 RBI, 1.053 OPS over just 340 ABs) and crazy good 4:12 K:BB ratio since getting recalled still make him an intriguing option in deeper mixed leagues.

Well, since a bat is involved, I guess this is baseball related – either way, it’s pretty nuts.

During his career, Matt Holliday has hit nine more homers in 507 fewer at-bats during the second half of seasons. He’s also posted a .972 OPS post All-Star break compared to an .899 OPS beforehand. It probably doesn’t mean much, but approaching 1,000 total games, it’s at least worth noting.

I love Joe Posnanski. He’s easily one of my favorite writers. But in this case, he gets pwned by Dave Cameron.

Tim Kawakami from the San Jose Mercury News says he’s “not bragging about this,” which means that’s exactly what he’s doing, when he links to an old article he wrote in 2007 suggesting the Giants should trade Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios. Honestly, this type of thinking isn’t even worth the time criticizing.

Forget Steven Slater, in my mind, the media has been overlooking this new hero.

Jose Tabata, who may be best known for being married to a 44-year-old woman who recently pleaded guilty to faking a pregnancy and stealing a baby to fool Tabata into thinking he was the father, should be getting more pub for his play on the field recently. The 21-year-old has recorded multiple hits in 10 of his past 17 games and is currently hitting .303 with a 30:17 K:BB ratio over his first 221 major league at-bats. If you prorate his performance so far over a full season, Tabata would produce 104 runs scored and 37 steals to go along with the strong batting average. Of course, prorating is often viewed as a silly exercise, but those numbers are impressive considering his age and ML experience, and while he doesn’t project to have much power, his two homers suggest he’s not Juan Pierre either. And 8-10 homers with that type of SB/run potential is more than enough to be a highly valuable fantasy player for years to come, assuming his progression continues.

Last week a neighbor across the street got into a conversation with my wife, which later revealed he was under the impression I was her dad…I’m 28 years old. My wife is older than me. Get fucked, neighbor.