On the Heat and gambling

By Dalton Del Don

During a trip to Las Vegas over baseball’s All-Star break, my friend and I stumbled upon a prop bet offered at The Mirage that we both thought was too good to be true (which usually means a trap bet, but still, this was ridiculous). It placed the over/under on strikeouts for the All-Star game at 11. Huh? Eleven? ONE team could easily surpass that. After all, these are the best pitchers in the game often facing hitters for the first time ever (advantage pitcher). And just because the hitters made the All-Star team, doesn’t mean they strike out less (in fact, people typically vote in sluggers who rack up HR and RBI and might even have a higher K rate than the average hitter). Also, it stands to reason starters who are under the national spotlight now asked to throw only one inning will see their velocity increase, probably by a decent amount too. Anyway, after the first inning ended with zero Ks combined, I was a bit worried, but ultimately, the teams combined for 18 strikeouts.

This little story has more meaning than me bragging, as it appears Vegas is once again giving away money. The M, which seems to offer the most futures bets (including every single game of the 2010 NFL season. As in you can bet on the Week 11 matchup between the Colts and Patriots right now) currently has the over/under for Heat wins this season at 64.5. To put this into perspective, the Cavaliers averaged 63.5 wins over the past two years. Umm, ya, I think LeBron James and his slightly improved cast will best that mark – and the kicker is the under is actually favored (-125)!

But that’s nowhere near my favorite futures bet, which is a Lakers/Heat final at +240. There’s one major caveat picking the Heat to win it all this year – and that’s them having to beat the Lakers in the Finals. This takes away that problem altogether. Name one Western Conference team that seriously has a chance of overtaking Los Angeles this season. Maybe Oklahoma City, but Phoenix lost Amar’e Stoudemire and Steve Nash is 37. Carmelo Anthony is sure to get traded from Denver (this might become a problem if he goes to a team such as Dallas, admittedly). As for the East? Come on, Miami is going to dominate. This isn’t the NFL we are talking about here, where unknowns should not only be considered but expected. I’d make this bet at even odds, but at +240, it almost feels like robbery – count me in for a couple bills, and thank you Las Vegas for still providing some loopholes.


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