The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

My apologies for the lack of content recently, but I’m making it up to you with an extra long “Scoop” right here, right now. A few quick programming notes beforehand: If you haven’t already, check out my latest podcast. These are all available to download through iTunes, by the way. Also, this Monday I’ll be co-hosting on XM #147/Sirius #211 from 8-11 am PST. Tune in if you get the chance.

Rickie Weeks has sunk plenty of fantasy teams over the years, both with horrible batting averages and being extremely injury prone. Entering 2010, most high hopes had ended, although he was playing quite well last year before yet another injury ended his season prematurely. Weeks strikes out a ton, yet he also walks quite a bit, giving him a solid OBP. In fact, if you prorate Weeks’ runs scored over 162 games, he’s averaged 111 per season over his career, which is remarkable. He’s stolen just eight bases over his past 501 at-bats (while getting caught five times despite having a career SB rate of 85% beforehand), which obviously hurts his fantasy value. Still, Weeks is on pace to finish this year with 28 homers, 104 runs scored and 97 RBI – as a middle infielder who should also contribute around 10 steals, that sure looks like a top-15 type fantasy player. Of course, “on pace” is frowned upon among the sabermetric community, but Weeks has always had this talent, it just comes down to health, as the 27-year-old has never played in 130 games in any season of his career. He remains an enigma.

During his last start in San Francisco, Tim Lincecum allowed a home run on a changeup for the first time in his career while pitching at home.

Manny Parra is another interesting case in Milwaukee. Parra is a left-hander who has averaged 92.9 mph with his fastball and also recorded a 9.17 K/9 ratio this season. He also produces a bunch of groundballs and has somehow posted a .380 BABIP this season, which is actually a theme throughout his career, as his career BABIP is now .354 over 402 innings. Still, I’ve become quite wary, as Parra’s control remains terrible (4.26 BB/9), and while his hit rate is likely to drop at some point, with a lack of command and a high LD% throughout his career, it’s safe to say Parra is a pretty big gamble, especially when it comes to WHIP (ZiPS projects a .362 BABIP over the rest of the season, for what it’s worth). My advice? Parra can look fantastic at times and has underlying stats that suggest he’s due for some major good luck, which is enticing, but when he gets hit hard and negates the double-digit strikeout, standout outings, don’t be shocked, that’s just Manny being Manny. Also, some major BABIP correction isn’t necessarily in store considering the Brewers’ team UZR is -25.8 (the fifth-worst in baseball).

You’ve probably seen this, but if not, it’s a pretty great demonstration of just how amazing Mariano Rivera truly is.

Yunel Escobar currently sports a 31:36 K:BB ratio and has already tied his career-high with five steals this season. He’s also been a huge bust, batting .237 and still searching for his first home run of the year. Escobar is playing by far the best defense of his career, and he’s hit a similar amount of fly balls this season compared to last, and since 10.1% of those went over the fence in 2009, it stands to reason he’s been quite unlucky when it comes to long balls in 2010. He looks like a true buy-low target.

Robinson Cano entered 2010 with 64 homers against right-handers and 23 against southpaws. Only Albert Pujols (11) has more home runs than Cano (10) versus lefties this season.

Jason Bartlett was an obvious guy to avoid at fantasy drafts this year, but come on, a .224/.309/.325 line? That’s almost a 250 point OPS drop compared to last season. His BB% has actually been better and his K% has actually been lower this year compared to last (although both marginally), but his BABIP is more than 100 points lower (.364 vs. .259). I’ll spare you the details – Bartlett isn’t as good as he was last year, but he’s better than he’s been so far in 2010. Ultimately, that still makes him a worthy MI option in most leagues moving forward.

A three ball walk.

There’s still plenty of time over the second half for the rookies to struggle, but after Matt Wieters has proven just how hard it is to succeed right out of the gate as a catcher, how impressive have Carlos Santana and Buster Posey been? Over his first 84 at-bats, Santana has already hit five homers with 11 doubles while posting a 17:22 K:BB ratio. A switch hitter batting in the middle of Cleveland’s lineup, we could be looking at a fantasy stud for years to come. And to think, all it cost was Casey Blake to pry him from the Dodgers. As for Posey, he entered Friday with a .336/.375/.528 line with four homers and nine RBI over his past four games. He’s also shown a cannon arm behind the plate, a stark contrast from predecessor Bengie Molina. The catcher position will definitely be deeper in fantasy leagues entering 2011.

It’s almost certainly too late, but yes, add Chris Davis.

Tommy Hanson has become a good example of why all ERAs aren’t created equal. He currently sports a 4.13 ERA, but if you take away his final two starts in June (when he gave up 14 earned runs over 7.1 innings), that number falls to 2.73. Of course, those stats DO count, but it’s also worth noting he was pounded for eight runs over 1.2 innings in a start in May as well. Hanson no doubt destroyed the Braves’ win expectancy during those three outings, but I wonder if his other 13 starts in which he allowed two runs or fewer make him more valuable than a routine 4.13 ERA. I’m too lazy, so maybe someone smarter than me can run the numbers and enlighten us. For fantasy owners, it’s been Hanson’s 1.37 WHIP that’s been most disappointing, thanks to continued middling control. However, with a 9.12 K/9 rate and a .345 BABIP, it’s pretty safe to treat Hanson as a top-15 fantasy SP from here on out, although there’s still a question of how he’ll pitch under a full workload for the first time in his career.

When asked why run scoring is down in baseball this season, Tim McCarver recently stated, “The major reason is lack of hitting and great pitching.” You can’t make this stuff up. (h/t The Book).

When Josh Hamilton was on RW’s XM/Sirius show a couple of weeks back, he was asked to name an under the radar pitcher whose stuff is nasty and may be a potential breakout guy down the road. (This is a common question asked by Chris and Jeff – Jimmy Rollins named Ubaldo Jimenez two years ago, and a common answer so far this year has been Jorge De La Rosa). After some deliberation, Hamilton concluded….Brian Moehler! Ignore the career 4.93 K/9 folks, the 39-year-old Moehler is going to put it all together soon, his stuff is dirty. After giving Hamilton a hard time, I’d be remiss not to point out just how good he is at playing baseball. Hamilton entered Friday batting .345 with 22 homers and 64 RBI, and while he admittedly has the benefit of a great hitter’s park and still struggles some versus lefties (and currently has a .382 BABIP), his Z-Swing% is the highest in all of baseball – that is, no other hitter swings at a higher percentage of pitches inside the strike zone, and we are talking about a power hitter here. Only health prevents Hamilton from being a perennial first round fantasy pick.

I’m beginning to think Mel Gibson doesn’t consider females and minorities as equals.

Since returning from the disabled list, Vicente Padilla has recorded a 22:3 K:BB ratio over four starts. For the season, he has a remarkable 5.3:1 K:BB rate while striking out a batter per inning. Of course, he’s also given up at least one home run during all eight of his starts this season, producing a big dichotomy between his ERA (4.72) and WHIP (1.13). Padilla has always been fairly homer prone, but it’s safe to assume his current 16.4 HR/FB% has nowhere to go but down, especially since he plays in a division with three parks that typically suppress long balls, including his home one. He’s throwing both his fastball and slider as hard as ever, and his curveball has averaged an eephus-like 65.7 mph, which is pretty awesome. I have no clue and won’t pretend to explain his huge platoon splits in 2010, as he’s always been extremely vulnerable to southpaws during his career, yet has held lefties to a .145 BAA so far while right-handers have hit .307 against him. The latter has come with a 28:2 K:BB ratio, however, and since he’s going to face more righties moving forward, this at least seems like a good thing. I’m not saying Padilla can keep up this pace, but don’t just disregard him because he’s 33 years old and hasn’t been relevant in fantasy leagues in a long time. He’s no longer pitching in Texas and is now in a much better situation in the N.L. and a park more suited for his ability.

I know my rights! Part one. Part two. Part three. Enjoy.

Carlos Gonzalez is on pace to finish the season with this line: .310-30-100-107-23. He’s only 24 years old and can hit both lefties and righties while having the benefit of Coors Field at his disposal (which continues to play as baseball’s best hitter’s park). Oh, and he’s produced that pace while missing 11 games so far this year. It’s hard not to be bullish on CarGo, and he looks like a top-15 fantasy pick next year, but it’s worth noting just how hard it is to be such a productive hitter while walking as little as he does. His current 4.5 BB% actually ranks 12th worst in all of baseball. And of those dozen, his 24.3 K% is by far the worst; in fact, among the 44 players with the lowest BB% in MLB, only Jonny Gomes (25.3%) and Austin Jackson (28.0%) have worse K rates. Gonzalez absolutely has the talent to improve here, but this is a pretty obvious area of concern.

In closing, a few thoughts about “The Decision.” I really can’t blame LeBron James for leaving the NBA’s worst roster (although as a sports fan with no stakes involved, I probably wish he had stayed. But seriously, what’s the over/under for Cavs wins next year? I guessed around 18-20 without looking it up. And to my surprise, bodog has the number at 33.5. Huh? Ya, I’m going to be hammering that), but choosing Miami sure does feel like the easy way out. But worse than that was how he did it. If only Dan Gilbert told us what he really thought about James leaving. What a bizarre turn of events, as James’ image has taken a legitimate hit, and rightfully so. And while it was unsurprising, shame on ESPN. I hope all members involved Thursday night were given proper kneepads. As for the fallout, as long as health doesn’t get in the way, Miami very well might win the next five titles (the official over/under for this is 2.5). They should be considered prohibitive favorites.