The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Before we get started, check out my latest podcast, there’s baseball talk over the first half for those who won’t be interested in this NFL-centric “The Scoop,” and the second half consists all of football with guest Mike Salfino, who definitely knows his stuff. This looks to be a regular gig now, airing live on blogtalkradio every Wednesday from 1-2 PST. But more conveniently, they can be downloaded through iTunes at your leisure right here. Also, while I continue to appear on satellite radio every Friday at 9:30 am PST, the channel has changed. It’s now XM #147 and Sirius #211 – even if you don’t give a shit about my weekly appearance, that new channel is now full blown all fantasy content. Not only will Maurice Jones-Drew host his own show once a week come football season, but Steve Phillips currently has his own daily show! Seriously, there’s some pretty decent content on there. So check it out.

Judging from drafts I’ve seen and the general consensus among rankings, I seem to like Jamaal Charles a lot more than most. First, the negatives; he’s never proven he can carry a full workload, has a history of fumbling problems, underwent shoulder surgery during the offseason, plays for what appears to be a very bad Chiefs team and will have to fight Thomas Jones for touches. Now, onto the positives; Charles had the most rushing yards over the final four games of a season in the history of the NFL last year, had a 5.9 YPC mark that tied for the NFL lead while also leading the league with a 6.6 YPC mark during the fourth quarter. Charles turned a greater percentage of his carries into first downs (54/190) than any other back in football while also averaging an amazing 3.6 YPC after first contact – a number that easily led the NFL. New OC Charlie Weis should improve an offense that has the benefit of facing the NFC West this season, and while Jones will surely take away carries and is a major threat to steal them at the goal line, he’s 32 years old, has averaged 308 carries over the past five seasons and faded badly down the stretch last year. There will be safer picks than Charles, but none will have more upside at that stage of the draft. In fact, Charles is the only running back in the history of the NFL to have a season with 5.9 YPC or higher, 1,000 rushing yards and 40 catches. He did that with just 190 carries last year – imagine if he approaches 300 touches in 2010.

During an interview to possibly become the next head coach of the Raiders, Sean Payton recently recounted how Al Davis invited him to dinner by asking “You like cheeseburgers?” They later dined on McDonald’s burgers and KFC coleslaw in the owner’s office. You can’t make this stuff up…Speaking of Oakland, I actually think they are a bit underrated and want to pick them to finish second in the AFC West, but the loss of JaMarcus Russell was a pretty big blow.

Vincent Jackson is not only suspended for the first three games of the season, but the threat of him holding out the first 10 games is becoming a legitimate concern. And if he’s traded, it will almost certainly be to a worse situation than in San Diego, where he more than makes up for a lack of targets by having Philip Rivers throwing him the ball. Floyd didn’t exactly light it up after Chris Chambers was traded last season, gaining a modest 504 receiving yards with zero touchdowns during nine starts. However, he was quite effective if you look deeper, as he got a whopping 10.5 YPA, and the low TD total screams fluke, since he’s 6-5, 225 lbs and saw seven targets from inside the 10 in limited action. Floyd may actually be a safer pick than Jackson, who will cost a much higher draft pick with a looming holdout. Moreover, if Floyd becomes the No. 1 WR in San Diego, he has the upside to finish as a top-10 fantasy receiver.

I’m actually semi-bullish on Alex Smith, but I found this former scout’s take on the 49ers’ QB situation worth reading.

Shonn Greene has yet to start a single regular season game in the NFL, but after exploding for 304 yards (5.4 YPC) and two touchdowns over 2.5 games in the playoffs, he’s anything but a fantasy sleeper entering 2010. In fact, he’s without a doubt a deserving top-10 pick. Of course, it would be nice to see him carry a full workload and remain healthy, as injuries have proven to be a problem even while in a committee. Moreover, the fact he offers so little as a receiver definitely limits his upside. Still, Greene is strong (5-11, 226 lbs) with surprising speed and the unquestionable best back on a roster that features an elite defense and possibly the best offensive line in all of football. LaDainian Tomlinson was signed, and maybe he can somehow secure the third down role and steal some goal-line carries over another 16 games, but this is a back who now has 2,880 career rushing attempts and averaged 3.3 YPC last year while causing the fewest missed tackles and producing the lowest number of yards after contact among all starting running backs in the NFL. Besides, the Jets ran the ball 607 times last year – that’s 108 more carries than any other team, so there will be plenty of attempts to go around. With Braylon Edwards and eventually Santonio Holmes out wide and with a year under Mark Sanchez’s belt, maybe New York throws more in 2010, but defenses will also be unable to load the box in an effort to stop the run. Barring health, would it be all that surprising if Greene was a unanimous top-three fantasy pick in 2011?

I went with a group of 10 people who all disagreed and also judging by the critics I appear to be the only one, but I didn’t really like “Inception.” I’m just going to go ahead and say it – Christopher Nolan is overrated.

Even as Jay Cutler’s biggest apologist, it was impossible not to be critical of his play last year, as he continued to make bad decisions and turn the ball over at an unacceptable rate. Chicago’s poor offensive line was partially to blame, but Cutler’s YPA dropped for a second straight season, bottoming out at 6.6, and a huge final two games (when he tossed eight touchdowns) made an otherwise horrible season look better – remember, he entered Week 16 with a 19:25 TD:INT ratio. Still, while it’s hardly a secret, the Mike Martz factor cannot be understated. With a poor running game and a defense continuing to decline, Cutler is going to be throwing a ton, and while he’s learning a new system, year two with his teammates should bring natural improvement. The receiving group might be more talented than the names suggest, and all are developing while entering their primes. Anyone playing in leagues where interceptions are heavily punished (say anything more than -1 point) can’t aggressively target Cutler, but those who are in different formats should absolutely grab him, especially since the perception of him has probably never been lower.

I made a Tweet about this (shameless plug: follow me here) – but it’s well worth mentioning again. Watch “Louie” on FX. Great show.

Regarding those three Bears’ receivers, my advice is to select the one who comes cheapest. At least one and probably even two of those guys are going to emerge as weekly starters. I originally liked Devin Aromashodu the most, but forced to pick one, I’d probably take Johnny Knox right now, which probably means Devin Hester will end up having the most value. Again, take who falls the furthest in your draft. And yes, avoid Greg Olsen.

I’m not saying it deserves the Pulitzer Prize, but this article has been my favorite so far from 2010. But then again, I’ve always been a sucker for The Price Is Right.

Ryan Grant is an extremely boring pick with limited upside and an inability to contribute as a receiver. Still, he’s also pretty safe. Despite lacking a pedigree (undrafted), he’s the undisputed main ballcarrier in one of the best offenses in football. He converted six of his seven carries inside the three-yard line last year into touchdowns, which was the best percentage in the league, and in Green Bay’s offense, plenty of goal-line opportunities should be in store. Grant got 5.9 YPC and scored six touchdowns over the final four games last season, as the Packers’ offensive line improved immensely over the second half of the year and also added Bryan Bulaga, who somehow fell to pick No. 23 of the draft. Grant is far from the most exciting pick, but I’d sure prefer him to Cedric Benson.

Tim Lincecum redefines the term “wild pitch.”

While I was in Las Vegas last week, The Mirage had the Panthers’ odds to win the Super Bowl at 60-1, which was by far the best long shot bet on the board as far as I could tell (for comparison’s sake, the Bengals were 30/1, the Broncos, Raiders and Seahawks were all 50/1, and for some insane reason, the Bears were 10/1). The fact the NFC South has never had a repeat division winner really doesn’t matter for 2010 in reality, and don’t get me wrong, not only do I obviously like the Saints, but I expect the Falcons to be major contenders as well. Still, the NFL is a reshuffle league, and Carolina gets to play the NFC West and a third-place schedule. Carolina lost Julius Peppers to the Bears and Thomas Davis to injury, but their secondary allowed 6.6 YPA and a 14:22 TD:INT ratio last season. Steve Smith’s injury could be a blessing in that it helps the young receivers develop faster during training camp, and what if Matt Moore is good? Stranger things have happened, and he did post a 7.8 YPA mark with an 8:0 TD:INT ratio over the final four games last season. And while it’s a less important aspect, the Panthers’ running game is among the best in football. Remember, this is a team that won its final three games last year against the Vikings, Giants and Saints (who admittedly sat their starters) by a combined score of 90-26.

Random prediction: Wesley Johnson over DeMarcus Cousins will go down as one of the biggest draft blunders in the history of the NBA…Whenever I’m in a wedding, I inevitably wuss out when it comes to speech time. Maybe it’s because I don’t have something as profound to say as Chris Paul…I too was shocked LeBron James didn’t choose to join the Celtics.

Mike Wallace is hardly a sleeper, but that doesn’t mean he’s still not being undervalued. He caught more than four balls during just one game last season, but he was a WR3 and averaged a ridiculous 19.4 yards per catch as a rookie while also scoring six TDs. The loss of Ben Roethlisberger over the first four games of the season certainly hurts, but Wallace could really thrive afterward with the trade of Santonio Holmes. Pittsburgh wants to get back to its smashmouth roots, but at 34 years old, coming off back-to-back seasons in which he played 16 games and as physical as ever, Hines Ward still seems like an injury waiting to happen. Wallace is already the Steelers’ most physically gifted WR, and what he was able to do as a rookie at a position hard to learn right out of the gate shouldn’t be underestimated, so once Roethlisberger is back under center, big numbers could follow. One caveat should be noted, however, as it appears Pittsburgh drew the group of death during the fantasy playoffs, at least against the pass; although they are the only team who gets three straight home games during that span, they face the Bengals, Jets and Panthers in Weeks 14-16, which certainly looks tough on paper entering the year.

If the Floyd Mayweather/Manny Pacquiao fight doesn’t happen soon, it will go down as one of the biggest disappointments in sports of my generation. As if boxing wasn’t in trouble anyway, come on fellas, make it happen!

Maybe Justin Forsett will prove unable to stay healthy while getting 300 touches, but I see absolutely no reason why the Seahawks’ staff wouldn’t give him the opportunity to see if he can. He weighs nearly 200 lbs and got 305 carries during his senior year at Cal, so I’m hoping the other Pac 10 alum (Pete Carroll) doesn’t make the same mistake as other coaches have by wasting carries on the far inferior Julius Jones. Forsett somehow totaled 969 yards last season despite given just 114 carries – 45th in the NFL. While the team in general still looks shaky, Seattle plays in the worst division in football, and the additions of LT Russell Okung and WR Golden Tate should immediately improve the offense. Forsett averaged 5.4 YPC last year, is a threat as a receiver and is also an above average blocker, so there’s really no need to take him off the field, especially on a team with few other options in the backfield (unless Leon Washington can somehow return to 100 percent with a metal rod in his leg after a gruesome compound fracture). It’s worth noting Carroll typically used backfields by committee at USC, but Forsett has a bunch of upside if he can establish himself as the lead back.

Freakin awesome video:
Modest Mouse – Little Motel

Modest Mouse | MySpace Music Videos