By Dalton Del Don
I havenât posted a new baseball column in a bit, so I wanted to make sure you saw I wrote about Game 7 of the NBA Finals earlier as well.
There isnât a bigger Tim Lincecum fan than me, and while Iâm hardly panicking, his last seven starts have raised some concerns. His fastball velocity has declined during all four years heâs been in the majors, bottoming out at 91.3 mph this season. Itâs remained an effective pitch, but with a changeup that averages 84.1 mph â thatâs hardly the discrepancy youâd like to see (ideally a 10 mph difference). But Lincecum currently sports a 10.3 K/9 ratio and just fanned 10 batters during his start Wednesday against the Orioles, so his âstuffâ really shouldnât be questioned. His control, however, is an issue. After walking 20 batters over a four start stretch (that spanned over 23.1 innings) in May, Lincecum had given just three free passes over his last two starts before Wednesday, when he not only issued four walks but also tossed three wild pitches. His last three starts have come against the Pirates, Aâs and Orioles â offenses that rank 30th, 24th and 29th in run scoring so far this season, so heâs had the benefit of an easy schedule, yet his control remains shaky. Itâs probably nothing, and Lincecum is incredibly tough to hit, especially when it comes to home runs, but this sudden drastic lack of command is a little worrisome and curious.
I already âtweetedâ this (are you following me?), but it deserves more than that. Funny stuff.
As a fan, Iâm going to stick with the Giants here, although Iâll try to make it quick. I still think the Dodgers and especially the Rockies are better teams, but all of a sudden, San Franciscoâs lineup isnât reprehensible. Not that itâs good, but with a strong pitching staff (Santiago Casilla is the best reliever few know about) and a surprisingly good defense (that still ranks No. 1 in UZR), only an average offense is needed. My personal whipping boy, Brian Sabean, deserves some credit for the Aubrey Huff signing, but the most important addition has been Andres Torres (luck), and I find it funnier to point out this: the Giantsâ current best setup features Aaron Rowand (due $60 million), Edgar Renteria (due $18.5 million) and Mark DeRosa (due $12 million) all on their bench right now. Thatâs $90.5 million for those who donât like math. One more Giants thought, and then I promise Iâll stop; the last player drafted and developed by the S.F. to appear in an All-Star game with the club was Matt Williams in 1986.
In âPulp Fiction,â the unknown item inside the coveted briefcase is actually a baby picture of Stephen Strasburg.
Baseball is undeniably unpredictable (Alex Rios went from being a player whom an MLB team gave away his contract in 2009 to someone who has probably been the most valuable fantasy hitter of all in 2010), but in hindsight, Adrian Beltreâs big year so far shouldnât be considered surprising (and no, Iâm not referring to the contract-year phenomenon) â heâs gone from hitting in one of the five best pitcherâs parks to one of the five most favorable hitterâs parks, not to mention the difference in lineups. Beltre has more home runs and RBI compared to last year in 197 fewer at-bats. Of course, improved health has also been an issue, and his current .337 BA is certainly going to drop, but with just one steal, he should increase his SB totals playing for an aggressive Boston team from here on out (they currently rank last in MLB with just 23 steals in 2010, but the Red Sox finished fifth and seventh among SB leaders over the previous two years entering this season). Moreover, despite all the errors, Beltre has still managed a current 6.0 UZR â so heâs easily been one of the more valuable players in all of baseball this season (.385 wOBA, 2.8 WAR).
When the boogeyman goes to sleep, he checks under his bed for Stephen Strasburg.
Staying with the Red Sox, Dustin Pedroia has been an interesting case so far. After winning the MVP in 2008, he wasnât even considered last season, despite striking out less, walking far more, stealing the same amount of bases and hitting just two fewer homers in nearly 30 fewer at-bats. Of course, the main difference was a drop in SLG% (by nearly 50 points), but Pedroia finished April with an awesome .302/.343/.573 line this year. And then he got hurt in May (while his K:BB ratio improved significantly to 12:16, a damaged knee prevented him from driving the ball). So while Pedroia played in nearly all of Bostonâs games, he has clearly been doing so hurt, which suppressed his production significantly. Since so many fantasy competitors are becoming more and more familiar with advanced stats, maybe the next step in getting an edge is somehow identifying whoâs playing hurt. That said, Pedroia may be feeling better (although heâs still getting treatment), as heâs hit in seven straight games (with five multi-hit efforts and steals in his last two games over that span). And while Wednesday marked his first homer since May 14, he does have nine long balls with six steals on the year, so while heâs no doubt been a disappointment with a .270 batting average, Pedroia is on pace to finish with 21 homers and 14 steals, so basically, health will determine whether heâs a bust or an extremely valuable fantasy commodity from here on out.
I love this. NBA superstars are no contest (and they are trying their best, believe me) versus âRicardoâ the busboy when it comes to Pop-a-Shot. Here are the losers: LeBron James, Charles Barkley, Kobe Bryant (whoâs competitiveness really shows) and also Carmelo Anthony, who might actually be the most mad of all at the outcome, although his nonchalant original attitude is all you need to know about whatâs missing from his game.
Thereâs no question Joe Mauer is tough to evaluate. He went from being one of the better players in baseball to by far the most valuable in 2009, but while he always projected to hit for more power as a big, strong hitter still just 26 years old, what should we really have made of Mauerâs 11 homers in May (and eight long balls in August) from someone who averaged 8.8 homers over his first six seasons in the league? Mauer currently sports an obscene 23:28 K:BB ratio and a .389 OBP while playing strong defense at the most difficult position on the diamond â heâs at least worth strongly considering as the first overall pick in an organizational draft held tomorrow. But in fantasy terms â questions remain. All those walks only help in runs scored, and itâs not like he steals much either. But the biggest question is power â and right now, it looks like last yearâs outburst is the anomaly, especially since the new Target Field has suppressed home runs in a big way (of course itâs a small sample size, but so far, it looks like an extreme pitcherâs park). And remember, of Mauerâs 28 homers last season, a whopping 11 were termed âjust enoughâ by hittracker.com, so while heâs no doubt been unlucky this year (4.2% HR/FB), he was due to regress (20.4% FB/HR last year). I love Mauer, but itâs now clear he shouldnât be considered in the top three rounds in fantasy leagues. That said, this was a pretty sick catch by him.
This has zero to do with sports, but I found this lengthy article fascinating.
I entered this year down on Johan Santana, with a plummeting K rate and coming off surgery. However, whether price enforcing in LABR or pure stupidity in WCOF, I ended up with him on my team in two of my most important leagues. Since joining the Mets, Santanaâs ERA has been better than his xFIP by this margin over 2.5 years â 1.36, 1.00 and 1.57. Thatâs definitely significant, and with a career .286 BABIP and 9.2 HR/FB%, itâs clear Santana needs to be viewed through different colored glasses. Still, this can only go so far, and we are talking about a pitcher with current 5.77 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 rates (the latter is his worst since 2002); Santana has struck out just one batter in each of his last two outings, totaling only five Ks over his past three starts in total. Heâs fanned more than six batters just once all season. Since 2006, his fastball velocity has dropped every season, bottoming out at 89.1 mph this season. However, itâs still not all necessarily doom and gloom. Santanaâs heater, changeup and slider all still register as âplusâ pitches in 2010, and Iâm by no means saying Santana is done being an effective starter (his current tERA is 3.66. His career number there is 3.33), but the trends are more than a little bit discouraging. As crazy as it sounds, Santanaâs fastball has averaged just 91.6 mph throughout his career and his current changeup (79.3 mph) leaves an average discrepancy of 9.8 mph, which is pretty good. Not all hope is lost, despite the obvious signs heâs due to crash in a big way.
In closing, Iâd like to thank my psychiatrist for helping me write this column. In all seriousness, congratulations to the Lakers. It wasnât pretty, but Game 7 was pretty epic nevertheless.
Leave a Reply