By Dalton Del Don
Before we get started, check out my latest attempt at hosting a podcast, featuring Jeff Erickson and Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski.
What more can be said about Stephen Strasburg’s dominant debut? Sure, the Pirates have scored the fewest runs in baseball this season, but I’m pretty sure Strasburg’s stuff will translate well to better lineups. Ubaldo Jimenez is a close second, but it’s not a stretch to call Strasburg’s stuff already the best in baseball, and when you consider his plus command and the fact he gets to pitch in the NL, only his 100-inning limit stops me from ranking him as a top-three fantasy starter right now. But if you prorate a starter who will throw 200 innings this season, that results in around 130 innings from here on out, so Strasburg isn’t THAT far behind if they do indeed shut him down early. The Vegas O/U for strikeouts is 146.5 – factoring in the 100-inning limit, the bookmakers essentially expect his K/9 to be 13.2! Strasburg’s current xFIP is negative (-0.50) – that’s right, negative. I loved this headline. If given a choice for a Game 7 starter in the World Series, Roy Halladay is probably the safest pick, and it’s tough to argue with how Cliff Lee has pitched this season, but it’s really hard not to consider Strasburg one of the three or four best pitchers in MLB already. When all is said and done, he’s going to make LeBron James look like a bust.
What’s going on with Ricky Nolasco? His BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates have all normalized after being so unlucky last season, and his control is superb (1.82 BB/9), yet he’s still sitting on a 4.60 ERA thanks to a plummeting strikeout rate (6.54 K/9). In fact, he’s fanned three batters or fewer in six of his last seven starts. Nolasco has lost more than one mph on his fastball this season compared to last, but he’s throwing his slider harder than ever. The sudden and sharp decrease in K% may be something of a fluke, but Nolasco is an extreme fly ball pitcher, so homers will always be an issue, and that’s a serious problem if he doesn’t start missing more bats soon.
He’s no Ernie McCracken, but this guy is pretty good at bowling.
Adam Jones homered Tuesday and stole a base Wednesday, but he’s fast becoming one of the more disappointing players in the league. His OPS is .661, and he sports a 51:8 K:BB ratio over 235 at-bats. A closer look at last year’s numbers suggest maybe we should have seen this coming – he hit .222 after the All-Star break, and while 19 homers over 119 games look impressive, it’s worth noting just how difficult that feat was with his low FB% (28.1) and high groundball rate (55.4%). Jones is hitting more balls in the air this season, but he’s still posting a 1.26 GB/FB ratio, which is a big problem, especially for someone with a LD% of 16.3. And all that athleticism has yet to translate into Jones becoming an above average center fielder, although at age 24, there’s still plenty of time for growth. Nevertheless, Jones’ performance has been quite discouraging so far.
Candlestick has a lot of history, but let’s face it – it’s a dump. So I’m pretty excited about “Measure J†passing Tuesday. Next up, moving the A’s to San Jose.
Jaime Garcia looks like a pretty obvious sell-high candidate, with a nifty 1.47 ERA combined with a .278 BABIP, 85.0 LOB% and 4.4 HR/FB%. His control isn’t even good (3.88 BB/9) and after missing all of last season recovering from TJ surgery, there’s also a big question regarding how many innings he can throw in 2010 as well as a big concern of him wearing down. This is all true (and obviously no one expects him to finish with an ERA below 2.50), but Garcia is not some scrub skating by solely on luck, either. He’s got Dave Duncan on his side, which we may need to start valuing the same way we would an American League pitcher coming to the N.L. Moreover, Garcia is a groundball machine (57.4 GB% is fourth-best in MLB), and while that makes his low BABIP seem all the more fluky, it also suggests when his HR/FB% normalizes he won’t suddenly start giving up a bunch of homers, since he’s allowed the fourth-fewest fly balls (23.9 FB%) in all of baseball this season. Still, Garcia needs to be shopped in fantasy leagues.
Maybe he should have tried 1,007 lbs.
I’m kicking myself for not owning Nick Swisher in any of my leagues, as his ADP was low, and while his BA is sure to come down, the sneaky source of power really shouldn’t be all that surprising. After all, he hit 29 homers in fewer than 500 at-bats last season, and that was with him not even taking advantage of the new Yankee Stadium (just eight HRs at home), which boosted home runs more than any stadium in 2009 (on a side note, while most considered it a huge hitter’s park, Yankee Stadium actually graded out as the 11th best pitcher’s park last year, ahead of even the Oakland Coliseum. However, this year it’s been the No. 1 hitter’s park, just ahead of Coors Field. Maybe the run production will drop over the second half of the season like it did last year, but one thing’s for sure, we really shouldn’t judge its park effects until we get at least three years of data). Swisher strikes out too much to maintain anything close to his current .310 batting average, but as an on base machine now hitting second in a loaded New York lineup, there’s no reason he can’t finish the year as a top-10 or even higher fantasy first baseman (where he’s eligible in most leagues).
Stephen Strasburg called the ending to the “The Sixth Sense†within five minutes.
It’s probably misguided to complain about anything Chris Carpenter, but it’s worth noting he hasn’t struck out more than five batters in a game in more than a month. It looks like his early season spike in K rate wasn’t here to stay, but it’s not worth worrying too much about anyway, since he was one of baseball’s best pitchers last year with a modest strikeout rate (6.73 K/9). He’s already allowed three more homers this season compared to last despite throwing more than 100 fewer innings, but Carpenter has essentially been the same pitcher (3.38 xFIP last year compared to 3.40 xFIP in 2010).
Stephen Strasburg already knows where LeBron James will sign this offseason.
What has gotten into Scott Rolen? His current OPS (.953) is actually the second highest of his 17 year career. He’s getting lucky with balls going over the fence (18.2 HR/FB%), but his BABIP is .286, and his ISO is a ridiculous .304. Maybe this is what a truly 100 percent Rolen can do, even at age 35, but then again, another injury is probably right around the corner. I’m guessing he’d be pretty tough to execute a sell-high though, so might as well ride this story out.
In 2011 fantasy drafts, my guess at Stephen Strasburg’s ADP is around 5.0.
Matt Cain currently has a 2.11 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That’s accompanied by a modest 2.26:1 K:BB ratio and a 4.50 xFIP. However, this doesn’t necessarily make Cain a sell-high candidate, as he’s proven to be one of the true outliers in baseball. His career xFIP (4.49) is more than a full run higher than his career ERA (3.40). Over that span, his BABIP is .274, and remarkably, his HR/FB% is 6.6, and Cain is approaching 1,000 career innings. His strikeout rate continues to decline, sitting at a career-low 6.43 K/9 this season, but his walk rate is also a career-best (2.85 BB/9). Maybe all those peripherals will eventually catch up to Cain, but at this point, it seems almost silly to suggest a major correction. Of course, I’m not saying his current 2.11 ERA is sustainable, but Cain needs to be viewed through a different spectrum when it comes to evaluating pitchers. For whatever reason, his fastball, despite averaging 92.7 mph throughout his career (and just 91.2 mph this year), is simply one of the hardest pitches to hit in all of baseball.
Seriously, how good is Stephen Strasburg?!
Justin Morneau has always been pretty good, but he’s been the best player in the American League over the first two months this season. It’s hardly surprising for someone to peak at age 29, but his jump in performance has been quite remarkable. His walk rate has spiked (17.9 BB%) greatly; it’s a huge jump compared to his previous high, but this is a trend, as Morneau has increased his BB% in each of the past four years. His 1.148 OPS is the best in baseball by a wide margin. This despite Target Field suppressing homers at a significant rate (third lowest in MLB), as Morneau has hit 11 of his 13 home runs on the road. Having an on base machine like Joe Mauer (who rarely knocks himself in via the HR) hitting right in front of him is a nice advantage as well. Morneau is also playing the best defense of his career this season too. His wOBA is nearly 100 points higher than the year he won the MVP in 2006, and he’s already contributed as many wins to his team through two months than he did during that entire award winning season. Baseball is an unpredictable sport.
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