By Dalton Del Don
I apologize for the lack of articles recently, but the RW RB magazine column has dominated my time of late. I posted my preliminary top-12 rankings here, so let me know your thoughts. Anyway, that task is finished, so expect more frequent baseball posts in the future.
It’s hard to complain about Hanley Ramirez. Even if his OPS, while still strong, is about 65 points lower compared to his past three seasons, his contact rate is a career-high, and his BABIP (.303) is well below his career level (.354). But one worry, especially among fantasy owners, has nothing to do with luck, as we are now six weeks into the season, and Ramirez has stolen just three bases on five attempts (after attempting just two steals during September last year). This could prove to be a small sample issue, and while it’s easy to say players typically run less with age, he’s still just 26 years old. His career success rate (76.6 percent) is just OK, and it makes more sense from a baseball standpoint if he continues to attempt fewer stolen bases, and he’s also now hitting in the middle of the lineup instead of atop it, but fantasy owners take note. His value has likely already peaked.
Bobby Valentine sure knows Josh Johnson’s personal life more than most.
So that’s why the Diamondbacks traded Max Scherzer. All along, the deal looked so suspect, the only possible explanation was that the organization had to be convinced he was either hurt or would never last as a starter. While Edwin Jackson has been a huge bust, Ian Kennedy looks like a No. 3 starter (at least in the NL) for years to come. Scherzer, meanwhile, has been a disaster. He’s had an unlucky FB/HR rate and LOB%, but that’s always the case for someone with a 7.29 ERA. The switch to the American League can certainly be partially blamed, but pitchers with a career 9.54 K/9 don’t suddenly start striking out 5.57 batters per nine innings unless something is wrong physically. When Scherzer debuted in 2008, his average fastball velocity was 94.2 mph, and it remained a strong 93.6 mph last season. It’s down to 91.8 mph this year, a significant loss. And we shouldn’t always concentrate on fastballs when looking at velocity, as Scherzer’s best pitch has always been his slider, which has dropped from 85.0 mph in 2009 to 83.4 mph this season. Who knows, maybe it’s all a mechanics issue, but I’m highly concerned it’s more than that.
Dallas Braden is the man. First he screams at Alex Rodriguez for what may or may not have been a violation of an unwritten rule (even retired pitchers are split on this issue), revealing the arrogant ARod side: “Especially from a guy that has a handful of wins in his career…I thought it was pretty funny actually.” “Now, look, I really don’t want to extend his extra 15 minutes of fame.” But those quotes pale in comparison to Braden’s: “I think he’s probably garnered a new respect for the unwritten rules and the people who hold them close to their game. But I think you’re right, we don’t do much talking in the 209.” I only bring up this old news because I actually live in the 209 (which has since been ridiculed b/c it’s best known for Laci Peterson and Chandra Levy). And then Braden proceeded to toss a perfect game! Take that, ARod, New York City and murderers.
Since joining the Rays, Carlos Pena’s batting averages have looked like this: .282, .247, .227 and .180. That’s a trend going in the wrong direction. His K% so far this year is actually slightly better than the past two seasons, and his current .218 BABIP is sure to rise, but since he should be expected to hit about .245 from here on out, another .230ish type season looks to be in store. Because of all that power, guys like Pena (and Adam Dunn) can be plenty valuable with a .260 BA, but in those years when it’s 30 points lower, that power really is mostly negated. And what about his teammate, Ben Zobrist, yet to hit a home run this season? Talk about a player hard to predict…The Rays’ offense has been incredibly lucky this year, getting a majority of their hits in the right situations, but while that’s sure to regress over the rest of the season, they have more than a couple players who are also due to regress in a good way. But you don’t need me to tell you Tampa Bay is one of the two or three best teams in baseball.
I’m not an MMA diehard, but I do follow the sport quite a bit and was relatively shocked at Brett Rogers’ performance Saturday (the loss of the Mohawk had me concerned from the get go). This is a guy whose only loss (and he nearly won) was to Fedor! But frankly, he looked timid, and I really don’t know why. It’s clear Alistair Overeem is no joke, though. My favorite up-and-comer in the sport? Jon “Bones†Jones.
I was at the Giants game Saturday, and the ending was one of the crazier sporting events I’ve been to, and I was at this game and this one and this one. While it didn’t surpass those examples with the stakes far less high, it was a one-run game with the bases loaded in the ninth inning, and the final at-bat lasted a ridiculous 15 pitches, with the last six all coming with a full count. It was a miracle the Giants’ bullpen didn’t blow a Tim Lincecum win for his fourth consecutive start. And since the final out came on a liner caught by Andres Torres, now might be a good time to point out that Torres has somehow amassed a 5.3 UZR over 177.0 innings of defense in the outfield, good for a respectable 62.2 UZR/150. Good riddance, Mark DeRosa (another Brian Sabean special! If you’re counting at home, he handed out not one but two multi-year contracts worth $12 million to pedestrian players not only on the wrong side of 30 during the offseason, but both were currently injured! So far in 2010, those signings have provided a .194/.279/.258 line. You’ve really outdone yourself this time, sir. Bravo).
Do you realize Carlos Marmol has 35 strikeouts over 18.0 innings this season? I mean, wow. His control, while better than last season, is still terrible, but it matters little when missing that many bats (evidenced by his current 1.59 ERA despite a .424 BABIP). That’s a 17.5 K/9 we’re talking about. Crazy stuff. Speaking of crazy, Joel Zumaya has led major league baseball in fastball velocity during all five years of his career, including this season at 99.1 mph. He remains a significant health risk, but what’s truly remarkable is that a pitcher who entered 2010 with a career walk rate of 5.41 BB/9 somehow became a control freak this year (1.52 BB/9). All four of his walks this season have come over his past three appearances, so maybe the start of a correction is in store, but I’d sure love to see what a healthy Zumaya could do over a full season. And for a pitcher with major past injury problems, it’s weird to see manager Jim Leyland use him for more than one inning in 11 appearances already this season – but maybe that’s the Tigers’ new strategy, more rest in between outings, yet higher usage during them. It seems to be working so far.
I wanted to offer a few betting observations (and if you haven’t been reading Joe Sheehan’s daily baseball picks, then you’ve been missing out). My friend Joey, who lives in Las Vegas, deserves credit for the main point I’m going to make, but I’m totally onboard. Anytime you see a line (spread, MLB, O/U) that seems ridiculous – like George Costanza, do the opposite (meaning back the “ridiculous†side). For example, a couple of weeks ago, during a Cubs/Diamondbacks series, the over/under was 14.5 on two of the games. For reference, 99% of baseball over/unders fall somewhere between 7-11.5 runs. Even back in the Coors Field heyday, 14.5 runs would be obscenely high. So Joey hammered the over. And won both of his bets (and both games featured two decent pitchers in Ian Kennedy and Randy Wells. The wind had a lot to do with this, obviously). And yesterday I went to the Giants/Astros game, with the over/under being a ridiculously low 6, so naturally, I was all over the under. Don’t get me wrong, I typically lose money when betting, but it’s worth pointing out if you ever see a line that looks especially crazy, it’s for a reason (remember, even if Vegas thought the true O/U for Saturday’s game featuring Lincecum (with no Pablo Sandoval) vs. Roy Oswalt and the worst offense in baseball was 4.5 (or the like), they would never go there), so back the side that seems “wrong.â€
Jered Weaver entered this season with a career ERA of 3.73. However, over his four years in MLB here are his accompanying xFIPs: 4.30, 4.76, 4.28 and 4.48. Clearly, he was due to regress soon, right? The big discrepancy was mostly due to an abnormally low career FB/HR rate (below 8% entering 2010), and I personally believe in these kind of stats wholeheartedly, frequently mentioning them. But guess what Tim Lincecum’s career HR/FB rate is. It’s 6.3%. Of course, his career xFIP is 3.17 (compared to 2.71 ERA), which reveals an elite pitcher even if that were to normalize to league average, but like others (think Carlos Zambrano with BABIP), there are going to be outliers, and maybe Weaver hasn’t thrown enough innings to truly define that, but he surely looks like someone who is tough to homer against (his low rate is especially impressive considering he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher). If you want more proof whether Weaver has more control over this than the average pitcher, consider this: Weaver, who has posted drastic lefty/righty splits throughout his career, entered 2010 with a FB/HR rate of 10.6% vs. southpaws and 5.6% against right-handers (admittedly, this trend has reversed so far in 2010 – 2.9% v. L, 18.2% v. R – but it’s a six-week sample, and his overall rate remains low at 8.8%, which actually qualifies as a career-high). Anyway you want to look at it, Weaver has turned into a star in 2010, as even his xFIP (3.02) ranks fifth-best in baseball. There hasn’t been a drastic change in velocity, but he’s throwing his curveball more than ever, and it’s become a highly effective pitch. His GB% is a career-high (39.1%), and a combination of a 10.41 K/9 with a 2.12 BB/9 is stuff Cy Youngs are made of. The huge increase in K rate over such a small sample suggests he’s probably a sell-high candidate, but there’s little reason to make a deal unless you get a great return. Weaver has proven he can beat expectations – both in the past and even more so this year.
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