The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

What’s the deal with Grady Sizemore? He looked like baseball’s biggest threat to be the next 40/40 guy as recently as 2008, and while he was a huge bust last year, injuries could mostly explain it, and 18 homers with 13 steals over 436 at-bats wasn’t the end of the world either. Back seemingly healthy, Sizemore is still searching for his first home run of 2010, a span stretching over 95 at-bats. He entered Tuesday on pace to strikeout 156 times this season, which would be a career-high. After being successful on 38 of 43 SB attempts two years ago, he’s been caught on nine of his last 24 attempts since. Sizemore has never hit southpaws well, but if anything, he’s actually regressed in that area. Players simply aren’t supposed to develop this way – remember he’s still just 27 years old. It’s possible Sizemore is shaking off the rust after missing the final month of last season, and again, we are dealing with just one month so far, but he’s been quite a frustrating player to own. Still, I’m buying if possible. Remain patient, don’t go selling him for a Vernon Wells type player.

I like using advanced stats quite a bit, but they don’t always work. For instance, Matt Capps’ xFIP (4.22) right now reveals a huge discrepancy compared to his ERA (0.63). Now, you obviously don’t need me to tell you his ERA is sure to go up, that much is obvious, but I’m trying to make a more general point here. Capps walked five batters (while also allowing three hits) over his first three innings this year, and he didn’t allow a single run over that span. So while he without a doubt got lucky during that time, it doesn’t necessarily mean that will catch up to him since he’s pitched so much better since then (13:1 K:BB ratio). With that said, while I believe Capps can remain a plenty effective closer all season long (although Drew Storen looms), with a fastball that’s currently averaging 93.4 mph and a strong 9.88 K/9 rate, his LOB% (96.4) is the definition of unsustainable, and since he somehow has an MLB-leading 11 saves on a team with 14 wins, Capps is definitely someone worth shopping around in trades. Just don’t hold his early season control problems against him when looking at the big picture.

Austin Jackson entered Tuesday with a whopping eight multi-hit games over his past 10 contests, raising his average 70 points in the process. Suggesting his current BA is going to drop is obvious, but the .376 mark is especially crazy when you note his strikeout rate. Jackson has fanned 34 times over 117 at-bats, putting him on pace to finish with 204 Ks – only one person has ever struck out more than 200 times in a season in MLB history (Mark Reynolds), and of the 10 highest single-season records for strikeouts, only Bobby Bonds was able to break a .300 average, when he hit .302 in 1970 (and almost all others on that list hit .260 or worse). Of course, Jackson is a talented prospect who should adjust, but considering his pedigree and the fact he’s off to such a hot start (leading all of baseball in BA), there aren’t many better “sell-high” candidates right now.

Zack Greinke is one of the three best pitchers in baseball but has yet to record a win this season, which highlights just how ridiculous the stat is. I kind of want him to post a 3.00 xFIP type season and win fewer than five games, just to see how the Cy Young voters would respond. Hopefully, it would finally render such an archaic method of evaluation moot forever (but probably not, unfortunately). The poor guy has to deal with weak run support, a bad bullpen AND a below average defense – it’s the triple whammy. Greinke’s K rate is down some this year compared to last, so he hasn’t been as good, but at least in the early going, he’s countered a small decrease in fastball velocity with a much improved changeup, which makes him quite scary moving forward.

David Wright is such an interesting player. The guy hits just 10 homers last year, yet steals 27 bases (as a third baseman) and posts a .307 batting average – this despite striking out more than ever thanks to an MLB-high .400 BABIP. This year, the power has returned, and he’s also running more than ever. Wright has also posted by far his worst contact rate (.66) of his career, making last year’s spike in Ks look downright timid. Then again, his BB% (.19) is also a career-best and by a wide margin. His current .370 BABIP remains high, but take note his career mark is .350, so a major collapse isn’t necessarily in the cards. Put it all together, his current .422 wOBA is the best of his career, so despite all the strikeouts, he’s basically playing at a higher level than ever before. Wright has hit far better on the road (1.036 OPS, four homers) compared to home (.882 OPS, one HR), so maybe Citi Field is still in his head, but fantasy owners have to be highly encouraged so far.

I’ve never been a big Jorge Cantu fan in fantasy leagues, but frankly, it’s been to my detriment. He has a career .784 OPS and is well below average defensively, but so what? He consistently hits cleanup, so RBI opportunities are abound. Moreover, he has a better chance of driving in those runs because of his inability to walk much – that’s actually a plus in fantasy terms. While he still managed 100 RBI last season, it’s pretty clear he was playing through a debilitating ankle injury, so a return to his 2008 type power (when he hit 29 homers) can’t be ruled out in 2010. Cantu has obviously played a bit over his head so far, but there’s no glaring reason to sell him at this point. Enjoy elite RBI production from someone who likely didn’t cost all that much at draft tables.

Speed round: Jonathan Sanchez could very well end up with the worst BB/9 rate and the best K/9 rate in MLB…I’m even more jealous of Ubaldo Jimenez owners than anyone who’s dated Kaley Cuoco…Will Venable needs to be owned in all deep leagues. His BA is ugly, and he has the disadvantage of playing in Petco Park, but a 20/25 type campaign can’t be ruled out either…Interesting middle relievers worth monitoring (or owning, depending on format): Carlos Villanueva (18:6 K:BB ratio over 14.0 innings, although when it comes to the Brewers’ pen, if Trevor Hoffman continues to struggle, look for LaTroy Hawkins to close), Joel Hanrahan (ugly ERA but 12 Ks over 8.1 innings. He and Evan Meek need to be watched should Octavio Dotel continue to falter or get hurt), Clay Hensley (21 Ks over 13.2 innings) and Joel Zumaya (averaging a major league high 98.8 mph with his fastball with an 18:0 K:BB ratio! Although if you’re looking for a possible closer should Jose Valverde go down, it’s worth noting Ryan Perry has been used in much higher leverage situations so far this season, so he’d likely be the first ninth inning replacement, but it’s still cool to see the pitcher with the highest ever recorded fastball (at 104 mph, and my boy Stephen Strasburg is No. 2 on that list, and he’s a starter!) finally live up to that potential).

I’ve always been a Kelly Johnson fan, but who could have seen this coming? He already has more homers this year (nine) in 89 at-bats than he did all of last season (eight) in 303 ABs. He’s hitting in a highly favorable environment, is locked in at the top of the Diamondbacks’ lineup now and is also capable of stealing bases, so while Johnson is clearly due to regress, he’s not some must-sell candidate either. Even if the Braves were convinced Martin Prado was the answer at second base, why give up on Johnson with such a void in left field? And do you realize Brian Sabean signed a hurt Freddy Sanchez for two years, $11 million when Johnson (one-year, $2.35 million) was readily available? Fantasy owners should just sit back and enjoy one of the bigger steals of their drafts.

For NL-only leaguers: Scott Olsen is firmly back on the radar. I had given up on him myself, but his poor start to the season (10 runs allowed over his first two starts) can be excused since he was recovering from offseason surgery on his labrum. It’s pretty clear he’s been pitching with a damaged shoulder for the past few years, and if the surgery truly corrected the problem, remember, this is a former highly regarded prospect who posted an 8.3 K/9 rate as a rookie. Sure, that was way back in 2006, and Olsen is more likely to disappoint yet again this season than finally reach his potential, but he has struck out 18 batters over 20.2 innings so far, and his fastball velocity is up but more importantly, his slider’s velocity is way up (81.3 mph), which is great news considering how often he throws it. It’s just a two-start sample, and he’s only truly been impressive in one outing this season, but Olsen could prove valuable in NL-only (or extremely deep mixed) leagues.

While Olsen is league-specific, Brett Cecil is a pitcher worth adding in pretty much all formats right now (and is likely long gone in your league). As a 23-year-old pitching in the AL East (and not on one of the big-three teams), odds are plenty of growing pains are in store, but still, a 21:4 K:BB ratio over 20.2 innings is quite impressive. Yes, more balls in play will fall in for hits in the future, but a 9.15 K/9 combined with a 1.74 BB/9 are rates typically only produced by true aces. Not that he’ll get there anytime soon, but Cecil has certainly proven himself worthy of an add to at least see what’s next to come.

I highly touted Brett Gardner before the season started, and I say this not to brag, but rather to further illustrate my frustration with him ending up on zero of my own fantasy teams. What was I thinking? His batting average (.346) is sure to drop, but with a 9:10 K:BB ratio, his plate discipline suggests a steep decline isn’t necessarily a sure thing, and with Curtis Granderson out at least a month with a groin injury, any worry about playing time (which didn’t even truly exist in the first place) is delayed. Gardner already has 12 steals (while getting caught just once), and in that Yankee lineup, 60 RBI and 100-plus runs can’t be ruled out. Nor can 60-plus steals. It’s crazy thinking about how much earlier guys like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury went before him. If a draft were held today, Gardner would have to be considered a top-15 fantasy outfielder, right?