By Dalton Del Don
I’d try to buy low on Gavin Floyd, if possible. Of course, no one is giving him away after just three starts, but he’s not some established star, either. The 14 strikeouts over 13.0 innings are encouraging, but there’s no doubt his control has been way off. Still, Floyd has now recorded a 76:66 K:BB ratio throughout his career in April, so maybe he’s simply a slow starter. This is a pitcher who posted a 71:18 K:BB ratio (with a 3.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP) after the All-Star break last season. His current BABIP (.456) is the highest in all of baseball by a wide margin, and his average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) this year is actually the highest of his career. He’s someone to target. (And coming off another poor start Tuesday following a dreadful second half last season, I also like going ugly and seeing how hard it would be to pry Chad Billingsley from his owner).
The big suspension announcement Tuesday turned out to be much ado about nothing. I mean, I guess he loses a paycheck, but Edinson Volquez will be serving that suspension while on the disabled list recovering from Tommy John surgery. Now that’s one pretty big loophole missed in the CBA. And it’s funny the substance turned out to be a fertility drug to help him “start a family.â€
For some reason, I didn’t trust Shin-Soo Choo at draft tables this year, and it appears I made a big mistake not grabbing him in any of my leagues. I apparently needed him to prove it again, and while it’s not easy to hit .300 while striking out more than 150 times (like he did last season), Choo posted a .946 OPS over 317 at-bats in 2008 as well, and he’s just now entering his prime. Of course, he’s been playing out of his mind so far at unsustainable levels, but Choo’s walk rate is also way up, and while the BA will inevitably fall, he’s posted a remarkable .367 BABIP throughout his career. He’s also been successful on 24 of his past 26 SB attempts, so there’s no reason for him to stop running. If Choo isn’t a top-10 fantasy outfielder, he’s awfully close. I’d prefer him to the current version of Ichiro Suzuki (whose LD% had dropped four straight seasons entering this year), that’s for sure.
In the Giants/Padres game Monday, the umps ruled a ball that bounced off the warning track a home run. I’m not kidding. Thank you, instant replay.
Chad Qualls has blown each of his past two save opportunities and has allowed at least one run over his last three appearances, but I wouldn’t push the panic button just yet. There’s some concern he eventually gets traded if the Diamondbacks are out of playoff contention come July, but Juan Gutierrez (9.00 ERA), Bob Howry (10.38 ERA) and Aaron Heilman (7.11 ERA) have all pitched poorly as well, so Qualls’ leash hasn’t even tightened that much, and it’s not like he lacked job security to begin with. Remember, he posted a ridiculous 6.4:1 K:BB ratio last season, and one of his blown saves this year was a result of this throw by Stephen Drew. Qualls should be fine.
Donald Trump is the funniest man on television. Hands down. That is all.
Rafael Furcal will never be as valuable of a fantasy player as he once was, but it’s encouraging to see him attempt seven steals (and be successful on six of them) already this season. Entering 2010, he had stolen just 21 bases over his past 909 plate appearances over the past two years (including the postseason). Furcal has yet to homer, and his BA is artificially high thanks to an inflated BABIP (.372), but his LD% is a career-high (26.2), and he’s also showing good plate discipline (6:7 K:BB ratio), so maybe he’s not quite done being useful after three straight disappointing campaigns. Considering his ADP – he looks like a bargain right now.
I’m beginning to think the Tim Wakefield/Victor Martinez battery won’t be good at holding baserunners this year – the Rangers went 9-for-9 in SB attempts over six innings against them Tuesday.
Rich Harden is having quite an interesting start to the season, as his K rate (10.13/9) is elite yet his BB rate (9.45/9) is the worst in major league baseball. Of course, it’s a three-start sample, so those numbers (especially the walks) are sure to normalize, but for those owners upset by his 4.72 ERA, realize his xFIP is an astronomical 6.72 (thanks in part to a .261 BABIP) – so it actually could be much worse. Harden is obviously in a tougher environment for pitching this season with the Rangers, and it’s so early this could all ultimately prove meaningless, but it’s worth noting his velocity is way down, as he’s averaged just 90.1 mph with his fastball this season compared to 92.1 last year, which is significant. It’s possible to survive as a starter being a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/changeup), which Harden has been for a few years now, but he’s leaving himself very little margin for error.
Please tell me All-Star voting doesn’t really start two weeks into the season? Are you kidding me? That’s as ludicrous as FX cancelling “Damages.†Or the comments here regarding Scott Stapp’s song about the Marlins.
Justin Verlander has a 6.88 ERA over his first three starts, which looks even worse when you consider all have come against offenses generally considered weak in the AL (Royals, Indians, Mariners). His K rate (7.94/9), while fine, is also significantly down compared to last season (10.09/9). But there’s not a whole lot to worry about here, as Verlander has recorded ERAs of 6.60 and 6.75 during each of the past two Aprils, so slow starts are nothing new to him. I personally shied away from Verlander at draft tables this year since he threw 3,937 pitches last season, more than 300 more than the next most in MLB, and he also led the league in “stress†pitches, but his early struggles over just three starts is hardly any validation there. His average fastball velocity is exactly the same as last year (95.6 mph), which is the highest in the American League and second in the majors only to Ubaldo Jimenez. Moreover, Verlander’s LOB% currently sits at a ridiculous 49.5, which is easily the lowest in the AL. To put that into perspective, the lowest LOB% in the majors last season was 61.0 (Ricky Nolasco), so he’s been quite unlucky. Verlander’s current 4.04 xFIP is a much better representation of how he’s pitched so far than his ERA suggests. He should be fine, health permitting (I only say that because the caveat here may be more pertinent than most pitchers, considering last year’s high workload).
I realize 264 at-bats is a small sample, and hey, his K rate (while still awful) is down compared to last year, but at what point do we give up on Brandon Wood? I mean, I’m sure he could hit 20 homers if given 600 at-bats, but his career line in the majors is now .178/.210/.280. Ugly stuff. I’d certainly feel safer owning Maicer Izturis at this point.
Last week I included Jason Heyward as a possible sell-high candidate, which seemed to produce the most feedback from the commenters (at least in the Yahoo version), so I figure I’d elaborate. Don’t get me wrong, I obviously think he’s going to be a terrific player and probably have one of the better seasons ever by someone his age (at 20 years old, that’s not a particularly high bar to clear). Just realize he entered Tuesday with a .727 BA with RISP, which led MLB. His HR/FB% (50.0!) also led the majors. And this is someone who is hitting the ball on the ground (55.6 GB%) more than in the air. And he has a .417 BABIP. I like his ability to take a walk, but Heyward is also on pace to finish with 216 strikeouts, which would be the second highest in MLB history. And I’m not even getting into the scouting aspect – with more tape, his susceptibility (and weakness) for breaking pitches should only become exasperated. Again, I love the guy (by all accounts, he’s apparently a great human being), and I’m not advocating giving him away – he’ll definitely be an asset in fantasy leagues this year. But my reasoning is that this is someone with an early profile of a sell-high anyway, and considering Heyward is a prospect that’s been one of the most hyped in recent memory (and the legend has grown with a home run during his first ML at-bat, a walk-off single Monday and a game-tying homer with two outs in the ninth inning Tuesday. He’s also tied with Ted Williams for the most RBI (16) over the first 13 games by someone under 21 years old) – he should bring in a real nice return right now in a deal (and if I’m wrong in that last assessment, then don’t trade him).
Placido Polanco entered Tuesday on pace to finish with just 27 strikeouts this season. Considering he doesn’t walk all that much and now plays in the easier league and in a park that’s pretty favorable for hitters, he could be quite the asset in batting average. He hasn’t been very durable throughout his career, but if he somehow manages to stay healthy, there’s also a chance Polanco leads the National League in runs scored in 2010.
What if I told you the pitcher with the second highest strikeout rate (12.1/9) in all of baseball also has a 7.45 ERA and 1.86 WHIP? That pitcher is Carlos Zambrano, and while he hasn’t been a help in WHIP since 2005, since he always walks too many batters, this is someone who shouldn’t be written off, despite the mileage on his arm, some recent signs of real decline over the past couple of years and an outing earlier this season in which he surrendered eight runs over 1.1 innings. Zambrano has probably been the unluckiest pitcher in MLB so far in 2010 (.437 BABIP, 58 LOB%, 28.6% HR/FB). That high BABIP number is especially worth pointing out, since Zambrano is one of the rare pitchers in baseball who has consistently kept that number below the league average throughout his career (.281). Better control would obviously help, but his fastball velocity has remained constant over the past four years, and his huge spike in K rate dates back to last season, when he fanned 9.4/9 after the All-Star break. Zambrano’s xFIP currently sits at 3.68, which is a huge discrepancy compared to his ERA. He’s once again quite an interesting fantasy property.
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