The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

What an awful feeling for Carlos Zambrano owners. Talk about starting with a handicap. I personally don’t own in him any leagues, but I can sympathize, having Peter Moylan in my LABR lineup last year, when he opened the year allowing five runs before retiring a single batter. Zambrano showed up to spring training in great shape, and he struck out 70 batters over 67.1 innings after the All-Star break last season, so while no one expects him to return to his days as an elite fantasy starter, treat the implosion for what it was – one start. Still, he’s dug his fantasy owners into quite an early hole.

R.I.P. Sammy Gervacio. It was a helluva ride while it lasted.

As someone heavily invested in Carlos Gonzalez, it’s great to see him get off to such a hot start with the bat (8-for-15), as it should lead to more time on the bench by Dexter Fowler and Brad Hawpe when manager Jim Tracy wants to get either Seth Smith or Ryan Spilborghs in the lineup. CarGo’s ability to hang with southpaws and strong defense should go a long way toward making him an everyday player. However, the fact he’s already 0-for-2 on stolen base attempts is of some concern, as one or two more caught stealings could lead to a less aggressive approach on the base paths. Gonzalez went 16-for-20 on SB attempts last year, and to me, it looked like the ump blew the call at second base Wednesday, so hopefully this is much ado about nothing in the long-term. Of course, he has Coors Field to help his stats, but Gonzalez sure looks like a budding star. Why did Billy Beane trade him again?

Anecdotally, I always thought umpires called 3-0 pitches FAR more liberally as strikes compared to other counts, so it was nice to see some actual data behind my suspicions. In fact, “the 3-0 zone is nearly 50 percent larger than the 0-2 zone.” I don’t get it, why reward a pitcher not hitting his spots? Shouldn’t the opposite be the case?

Hideki Matsui could easily end up going down as one of the bigger bargains at 2010 draft tables, as long as the Angels don’t ask him to play much in the outfield. He’s slated to hit cleanup in Los Angeles’ lineup, and while his setup is clearly a downgrade from last season, it’s worth noting he hit far better on the road (.949 OPS) compared to at home (.816 OPS), so “Godzilla” actually didn’t even really take advantage of the new Yankee Stadium’s homer-friendly ways (he hit two fewer bombs there despite seeing 50 more at-bats at home). Obviously, the Angels’ lineup isn’t as good as New York’s, but it’s certainly not bad, and Matsui has always held his own against lefties, so no platoon is needed. Tying up a “Util” spot isn’t ideal, of course, but that’s also at least partially the reason Matsui came so cheap, relatively speaking.

With Mike Napoli not starting either of the Angels’ first two games, Miguel Montero and Chris Iannetta each dealing with pretty solid backups that could lead to a timeshare, and Jorge Posada’s poor defense becoming a bigger problem than ever before, maybe catcher isn’t quite as deep as most fantasy owners anticipated entering 2010. It’s pretty obvious Matt Wieters will move up a tier on 2011 cheat sheets.

It’s just one game and little reason to get overly worked up about, but did Dusty Baker really have Drew Stubbs on the bench for the Reds’ opener? There are bad decisions, and then there are Baker decisions, which need their own classification. I mean, there isn’t even a reasonable replacement, not to mention the fact Cincinnati should be helping its young players grow. And then there’s also the tiny fact that Stubbs was fantastic defensively last season and posted a mere 1.054 OPS during spring training. Baker may be liked in the clubhouse, but he’s even more loved as a surgeon, and when you consider his past abuse with pitchers is now being overshadowed by the mismanagement of position players, how this guy is allowed within 1,000 feet of a baseball team is beyond me.

I’ll see your “Release The Kraken” meme and raise you with “The Human Centipede.” Actually, that’s a bit insulting, as the latter looks like fine cinema if you ask me.

While 90 percent of spring training stats should be ignored, I’m of the belief the other 10 percent can really be meaningful. To me, Francisco Liriano striking out 30 batters over 20.0 innings meant something. Any player returning from injury, particularly a pitcher regarding his velocity, is certainly worth paying attention to. And then there’s Fausto Carmona, who somehow managed to walk just two batters over 26.0 innings this spring. The 12 strikeouts over that span were far from impressive, but since he’s such an extreme groundball pitcher, that aspect is less worrisome. And control has been Carmona’s main downfall over the past two seasons, when he posted a hideous 5.12 BB/9 mark, so the huge improvement in that area was at least worth noting. So naturally, he records a 1:6 K:BB ratio during his first start of the season. Sure, it was just one start, and he allowed only one hit during the game, but consider me highly skeptical of a big rebound from Carmona this year.

Jonathan Papelbon gave up two runs and took the loss against the Yankees on Wednesday, allowed three runs in a series-ending loss to the Angels in last year’s playoffs and is coming off a season in which his control declined dramatically (3.18 BB/9). Thanks to a lucky HR/F rate (6.7%) and LOB% (89.3), his ERA was a miniscule 1.85, which was a pretty massive discrepancy compared to his xFIP (4.19). Still, I’m not the least bit concerned. While he was most certainly fortunate in some areas last season, the brief bout of control problems could just as easily be written off as random variance. After all, Papelbon posted a 35:6 K:BB ratio over 29.0 innings after the break, including an 18:0 mark over the final 15.1 innings. Nothing to worry about at all here, especially when you consider the improvements Boston made with its defense as well.

Luke Hochevar was supposedly regularly in the 94-96 mph range during his gem Wednesday, even reaching 97 at one point according to the stadium gun. But with just two strikeouts over 7.2 innings, I’m not rushing to the waiver wire. Still, Hochevar is a former No. 1 overall pick, and the light could go on at any moment, and remember, this is a pitcher who posted a 22:0 K:BB ratio over a two-start span last season, also racking up 80 Ks over 85.2 innings after the break (with an accompanying 7.35 ERA), so there’s upside hidden somewhere inside him. He’s a pretty interesting case, actually, as a whopping 67 of Hochevar’s 109 runs allowed last year came in just 17 innings. When projecting forward, I suppose that’s a good thing.

I’ll have Kevin Kolb as a top-eight fantasy QB for 2010 and well ahead of Donovan McNabb. Kolb is going to be an absolute monster.

Ian Kennedy pitches in a very good hitter’s park and entered 2010 with a 43:37 K:BB ratio, 6.03 ERA and 1.68 WHIP throughout his major league career. Of course, it’s been brief, and a move to the NL West makes him suddenly noteworthy in fantasy leagues. He doesn’t possess an overpowering fastball, but he has plus command of all four of his pitches, and while he missed most of last season with an injury, he has recorded 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 marks throughout his minor league career, dominated the AFL during the offseason and impressed during spring training. Kennedy was likely already owned in most deep fantasy leagues, but he’s sure to be now after his impressive performance Wednesday (8:0 K:BB ratio over five innings). It came against the lowly Padres, but so what? About 8-10 of his starts this season should come against the Padres and Giants.


Posted

in

by

Tags:

Comments

12 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    Oh yeah, on the Hochevar game, and the gun yesterday… Scherzer was being clocked at 92-93, which is just a touch below his average, so the gun was fair.

    Great info on 3-1 pitches. I had not read that due to the title.

    Dusty Baker on Stubbs is a joke. One one hand, yes, he should be inspiring his young players and not draining their confidence week one, but consider that Stubbs has done better vs lefties than Dickerson, and the move makes absolutely no sense. It makes the opposite of sense.

  2. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    But TMR is on the Carmona bandwagon!

  3. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Good point Robby, I may have to rethink my stance now.

  4. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    C’mon, Dusty is just trying to be even-handed. Having spent the past 15 years or so destroying the careers of promising young pitchers, he’s decided to start messing with his position players. What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. I for one applaud his progress–may he continue to retard the fortunes of non-Milwaukee NL Central teams for years to come.

  5. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    At what point are Jay Bruce owners in shallower leagues justified in ditching the guy’s ass for Francoeur?

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Not yet.

  7. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Still working on getting into Transference…making some progress, and I would have to say that Who Makes Your Money stands out…or at least resonates to some degree. Did you ever man up and get tickets for tomorrow?

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Sadly, I didn’t. I traveled every single weekend in March. Went to Giants game Saturday and am also going tonight. Just too much. Really wish I was going, though. Maybe I’ll check out some last minute ticket prices.

  9. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    At least the Bay Area teams are off to a good start. I went to opening night in Oakland to continue my tradition of watching them lose to start the season. Fortunately, unlike recent seasons, they didn’t wait long to start winning seasons. I just really hope Sheets gets better as the season goes on.

    I’m also going to see Muse/Silversun Pickups on Wed, so it’s going to be a rough couple of nights…but worth it

  10. Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover Avatar
    Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover

    D-cubed — need your advice. Which starting pitcher will make me the least prone to projectile vomiting the rest of the year — Colby Lewis, Kenny Kawakami, Dallas Braden or Carl Pavano?

  11. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Keith – Muse/Pickups should be a good show too. Let me know how both went.

  12. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Stevie – I’ll go with Kawakami.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *