1. Atlanta Braves
If the Braves didn’t trade Javier Vazquez, they’d be the clear favorites to win the National League. As is, they are still plenty good, with one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Maybe this projection proves to be overly optimistic, relying too heavily on the raw talent of youngsters Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward as well as veterans Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus staying relatively healthy. But there’s also a lot to like elsewhere. Jair Jurrjens is really good, Derek Lowe should bounce back (he has an 18:2 K:BB ratio over 22.0 innings this spring, for what it’s worth), and Tim Hudson looks primed for a big year. And there’s even Kris Medlen waiting in the wings should injuries strike. Few teams have that kind of SP depth, and in Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito and Peter Moylan, the bullpen should be a strength as well. Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera (listening to Bill Simmons and JackO argue in a recent podcast about how trading “the Melkman” for Javier Vazquez was somehow bad for the Yankees was truly painful. “I mean, is Vazquez even an upgrade over Chad Gaudin?” Why yes, yes he is. By the way, the last time Vazquez pitched for the Yankees, he made the All-Star team) could form a sneaky productive platoon in left field, while Brian McCann gives Atlanta an edge at a premium position no other NL team can match.
Fearless prediction: Billy Wagner goes down as the single most valuable fantasy reliever in 2010.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (wild card)
Despite me having them falling short of winning the division, the Phillies are obviously a great team and likely to once again reach the postseason. I fully expect Roy Halladay to win the Cy Young and Cole Hamels to bounce back in a big way, and the offense remains potent. But there are a lot of question marks in the bullpen, and the loss of Joe Blanton for 4-6 weeks is worrisome, since he improved so much last season, and the team lacks SP depth. Anecdotally, it just seems like things have gone so smoothly for Philadelphia over the past few seasons, so some injuries could be in store in 2010. Chase Utley is closer to being as valuable (if not more) to Albert Pujols than most give him credit for.
Fearless prediction: One of the starting outfielders gets hurt, resulting in Ben Francisco stepping in and acting like a top-30 fantasy OF from then on.
3. Florida Marlins
It wouldn’t surprise if Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco pitched like the best one-two duo in MLB, while Hanley Ramirez is one of the three most valuable position players in all of baseball, but there’s not a ton to get excited about after that. Actually, Cameron Maybin could take a big step this year, and Michael Stanton sure looks like a future stud, but Florida is probably a year or two away from truly contending. It sure would be nice if one of (or ideally, both) Chris Volstad or Anibal Sanchez lived up to their past hype, but this is a team with a weak looking bullpen and an infield defense that could be one of the worst in the league.
Fearless prediction: Ricky Nolasco is a top-five fantasy pitcher.
4. New York Mets
What has happened here? I mean seriously, look at this roster. Can you imagine if Johan Santana doesn’t fully rebound? What an awful starting rotation after him. Mike Jacobs is their current cleanup hitter? Good luck with that Jason Bay contract. GM Omar Minaya isn’t quite Brian Sabean bad (but then again, who is? Am I right?), but he’s easily one of the worst in baseball. Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran still give this team a nice base, but I trust the Mets’ doctors/trainers to make a right decision about as much as I do the BBWAA, so health should remain an issue with this franchise.
Fearless prediction: Jose Reyes enters 2011 as a top-five overall pick on all draft boards.
5. Washington Nationals
Ugly stuff. Is Jason Marquis really their ace? Remember when Scott Olsen looked like a future No. 3 or even No. 2 starter? Adam Dunn trying to play first base will be high comedy. If you placed his UZR over/under at -20.0, I’d take the over (meaning worse than that). To put that in perspective, the worst UZR by a first baseman in all of baseball last year posted a -6.7 (Billy Butler). I really wish I knew what Elijah Dukes did to get kicked off the team, one that is desperate for talent like him. And poor Jesus Flores, who appears to have the worst shoulder injury ever by a non-pitcher. It’s not all bad, though. Ryan Zimmerman looks like a perennial All-Star. Ian Desmond is an intriguing young player. Nyjer Morgan can get on base and plays fantastic defense in center. And the team’s two best pitchers in the organization (Drew Storen and Stephen Strasburg) will start the season in the minors. Don’t be surprised if Storen is the closer from June-September.
Fearless prediction: Stephen Strasburg comes up with a health care plan everyone agrees with, saves Jesse James’ marriage, reveals all the answers to “Lost,” convinces the NFL to reach a new CBA and strikes out 190 batters despite not getting called up until June. All right I admit, none of these were even all that “fearless” but rather, likely outcomes.
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