The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Although Matt Garza’s ERA and WHIP both increased last year compared to 2008, he became a whole lot more interesting since his K rate jumped from 6.24/9 to 8.38/9. His control regressed some last year, but that just means a potential ace can be had cheaper at draft tables. Garza has the unenviable task of playing in the AL East, and he’s a flyball pitcher, but if Desmond Jennings eventually joins Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton in the outfield, the defense should be outstanding. After June ended last season, Garza struck out 101 batters over the final 98.2 innings. He looks like a borderline top-20 fantasy starter.

I really like targeting Brett Gardner. He appears to be locked in as the Yankees’ starting left fielder, and hitting ninth in that lineup is like batting fifth or sixth in most others. He swiped 26 bags over just 248 at-bats last season (and has a career success rate of 87% in the majors), so why can’t he steal 50 this year? He posted a .345 OBP last year, and at age 26 and with just 375 ABs at the major league level, further growth should be expected (he had a .389 OBP throughout his career in the minors). He’s not some great real life asset, but if any team can put up with a hitter who lacks power like Gardner, it’s the Yankees. Plus, he’s a fantastic defender – a Gold Glove caliber center fielder being used in left field. He’s struggled some this spring (.217 BA), but with a 4:6 K:BB ratio, it’s of little concern. Marcus Thames, meanwhile, is batting .209 with a 17:2 K:BB ratio, and Randy Winn is hitting .229 and looks like a clearly inferior option at this stage of his career. In fact, since Curtis Granderson hit .183/.245/.239 while Winn hit an even more disgusting .158/.184/.200 against southpaws last year, any platoon might actually favor Gardner, who batted .291/.381/.400 against lefties last season, as the Yankees’ best team in this case would feature Gardner and his superior glove sliding to center and staying in the lineup. Let others take Rajai Davis and Juan Pierre much earlier and grab Gardner later on. Carlos Gomez, who is also a terrific defender and should be given a chance at an everyday job in Milwaukee, is another one who fits here. His 11 steals during spring lead major league baseball.

While this would have been better advice two weeks ago, I still think Jose Reyes presents an opportunity to get a top-five type player at a third round cost right now. It sure sounds like he’ll be ready by the season opener (or close to it), and while missing time in spring could prove more costly to him than it would most others since Reyes missed so much of last season, the most important aspect is that his hamstrings appear to be back to 100 percent. Remember, there was a strong argument for Reyes being the No. 1 overall player on drafts boards entering last year, and what really has changed? He was injury-prone back in the day, but he also averaged 158.25 games over a four-year span before last season. He also averaged 64.5 steals over that timeframe, and trust me, he’s not going to suddenly stop running at age 26. There’s no way Reyes is getting past me in the third round.

I know most industry folks and the like avoid pitching in the early rounds, but few things would make me happier in life than finding Roy Halladay fall into my lap toward the middle of the second round. I won’t rehash the obvious point of how switching from the AL to the NL will have its benefits, but when you combine that with a strong Phillies’ offense and infield defense, this is quite the setup for a pitcher who has led all of baseball in K:BB ratio each of the past two seasons despite facing the second and third toughest schedule, respectively. I’m a Giants fan and Tim Lincecum is my favorite player in the league, but on my SP cheat sheet, Halladay is ranked No. 1.

I’ve been driving the Brandon League hype train all spring (and there seems to be plenty of room available), so it warms my cockles to see David Aardsma with a 2:6 K:BB ratio over 6.1 innings this spring. Sure, he has dealt with a groin injury, it’s an extremely small sample and the whole spring training should be taken with a giant grain of salt issue applies, but League is the superior pitcher, and I fully expect him to be closing in Seattle for at least half the season.

Unless it’s Stephen Strasburg, I’ve really tried to tone expectations for young pitchers over the past few years, but Brian Matusz has grabbed my attention. He’s obviously no secret, and pitching in the AL East (while not playing for one of the big three) is rough, but there’s no denying the talent here. Matusz has a 19:3 K:BB ratio over 20.1 innings this spring, and he held his own during his major league debut last year, fanning 38 batters over 44.2 innings. The former top-five pick will surely undergo some growing pains, but he also looks fully capable of helping even in mixed leagues during his rookie campaign.

Ryan Ludwick has ended up on zero of my teams so far this year, and I’m immediately regretting that decision. He was a late bloomer, but he’s also still in his prime at age 31 and is just one season removed from a .299-37-104-113-4 campaign. Even when he fell back to earth last year (and in a big way), he hit 22 homers with 97 RBI. His true skill set is almost certainly somewhere in between those two seasons, but if last year was his floor because of his situation in the Cardinals’ lineup, well that’s a pretty good starting point. One could argue the high RBI total was inflated since he hit nearly 90 points higher with RISP (.323 vs. .236) compared to the bases empty, but again, his spot in St. Louis’ lineup gives plenty of room for error. I.E., he doesn’t have to be a great real life player to be quite the fantasy asset, and it’s not like he’s too costly either. Also, remember with Rick Ankiel in the fold, he was getting benched frequently in the beginning of last year, so Ludwick put up those numbers (when he somewhat struggled) in just 139 games played (486 ABs). He’s a fine target in 2010.

Jeff Francoeur, meanwhile, seems to be ending up on the majority of my teams, which is somewhat ironic, since I was highly critical of him entering last year, failing to believe in the spring training stories about him changing his approach at the plate. He’s not in nearly the ideal situation Ludwick is, but similarly, he can hold fantasy value even if he’s not a good player for the Mets. Frenchy is still just 26 years old, and while his inability to walk kills his OBP, his career BA is a respectable .271, and all those plate appearances lead to more RBI opportunities. Maybe 18-20 homers is his power upside, but the Mets are supposedly encouraging him to run more this year (of course, this could mean nothing come the regular season, and we are talking about 5-10 steals anyway). No one seems to want him, making Francoeur a fine 5th or 6th outfielder typically available late (he’s averaged 84 RBI over the past three seasons).

When it comes to position players, most fantasy leagues see guys go in typical order (of course, there are minor differences), but when it comes to pitching (and outfield to an extent), the variance can really differ, which is partly why they make the most sense to wait on. It happens less with the top outfielders and starters, but I have definitely seen plenty of discrepancy when it comes to closers, at least after the big three are off the board. My point? I seem to like Brian Wilson and Billy Wagner a lot more than most of the people I’ve drafted against this year. I guess Joakim Soria should be treated as the No. 4 closer, but there sure aren’t any other options I’d want before Wilson or Wagner, and they are often available after many others are selected. Wilson should give up more homers this year, but his fastball averaged 96.6 mph last year, when he fanned 38 batters over 33.0 innings and produced a 1.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP after the All-Star break. Wagner, who has a career 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, struck out 22 batters over 13.2 innings while pitching in the AL East last season. He’s now further removed from surgery and in the easier league, so even at age 38 (hardly one foot in the grave), he can be an elite closer in 2010. Huston Street, on the other hand, terrifies me. I wouldn’t touch him with a 10-foot pole.

Ricky Nolasco is being treated like 2009 never happened (at least when it comes to ERA) at draft tables this year, and rightfully so. I’m not saying he’s some secret – far from it – but realize this guy has posted a remarkable 21:1 K:BB ratio this spring. I do worry about his propensity to give up homers, but it’s worth noting his xFIP last year was 3.29 – the fifth best in all of baseball. I took Josh Johnson over him in my home league recently, and I’m pretty sure I’ll end up regretting it (with Florida’s terrible infield defense being a major factor). It wouldn’t be a stretch to consider Nolasco a top-10 fantasy starter.

If you’re in a deeper league with enough bench spots, Desmond Jennings is hands down my favorite late round pick. Injuries this spring have been unfortunate, but they have also kept his price tag way down, since he’s so obviously ticketed to Triple-A. Sure, most rookies struggle (the Ryan Braun types being more the exception, not the rule), but Jennings looks pretty close to ready, with strong BB skills, ridiculous SB potential and even decent power – he’s the total package. Even if no injuries occur, and the Rays stay in contention and don’t trade Carl Crawford midseason, why is Jennings still considered blocked? Their DH situation right now is Pat Burrell and Hank Blalock. Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler in right field? Seems like a pretty clear path to me. You may have to wait until June, but Jennings is the type of midseason addition who could win your league for you.


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11 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. The Jewru Avatar
    The Jewru

    Nolasco is higher on my board this year than last year. He could challenge Tim for the league lead in strikeouts. Unluckiest season ever.

    Wilson is 4th on my closer cheat sheet as well, Giants won’t be blowing too many of their opponents out.

    Dalton I will own you tomorrow. World Championship of Fantasy Baseball, Tout, LABR, Yahoo F&F, all chumps next to the Jewru.

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I’m pumped for the RotoScoop Invitational as well. And to be honest, I agree with you Jewru – you would more than hang with those other leagues.

  3. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Re: Ludwick. I know, right? I just got him in like the 15th round of a 13-team league, it was as if he had leprosy or something. Like I said, I smell 30/120 by default.

  4. Biggles Avatar

    You might wanna revise your Jennings hope. Looks like Zobrist in RF and Rodriguez at 2B right now.

    I’m a big Jennings fan, and his plate discipline in the minors is second to none, so he’s not far from ready, but this TB team might be too stacked for him to crack the lineup. And they won’t bring him up to play 2 or 3 times a week.

    Barring injury he’ll be in AAA until rosters expand to 40.

  5. Ryan Avatar
    Ryan

    Please tell me that you listened to the Simmons/Berry Podcast. Too funny.

  6. Corey Avatar
    Corey

    AAAAAARDSMAAAAA!!!! Damn your handcuff vulturing.

  7. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Biggles – You might be right. And that arrangement certainly makes more sense than any other not involving Jennings. But I still think he’s more than worth stashing if you can afford the roster space.

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Ryan – I have not yet. But it’s on my ipod and am planning on doing so today.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Corey – Fear Brandon League.

  10. Davidian Avatar
    Davidian

    Are you going to post the results of your Vegas fantasy draft?

  11. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Yes I will. Later this week.

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