American League East Preview

1. New York Yankees

When deciding whether Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes should be your No. 5 starter is your biggest spring training worry, you know you have a good team. Of course, everyone knows the Yankees are good, and while I guess there’s a slight worry some of the aging vets regress, this is an embarrassment of riches. Even though Javier Vazquez takes an inevitable step back in fantasy worth, he’ll provide plenty of value for New York. Nick Johnson was a savvy signing, and adding Curtis Granderson won’t hurt either. Nick Swisher appears to be one of the cheaper sources for power in fantasy leagues this year, and as usual, the Yankees enter the season as prohibitive favorites to win the World Series.

Fearless prediction: Robinson Cano has a better fantasy campaign than Chase Utley, but Brett Gardner is the Yankees’ best ROI.

2. Boston Red Sox (wild card)

On a recent podcast, Bill Simmons called Boston’s offseason moves a “gimmick.” Huh? Not to beat a dead horse, but how is preventing runs less important than scoring them? In fact, studies have shown that preventing a run is actually MORE helpful to winning than scoring a run. Anyway, I’m not here to pile on Simmons, there’s enough of that elsewhere, and I continue to read him and listen to his podcasts, so he can’t be that bad. But it was almost painful to listen to him talk baseball with Jonah Keri, as it was a mismatch of epic proportions. Like a hitter facing Stephen Strasburg, CJ Spiller against the Wonderlic or “no” versus Ben Roethlisberger. Anyway, this is the second best team in baseball on paper, and yes, the improvements on defense are a big reason why. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz are mitigating factors as well.

Fearless prediction: Jon Lester wins the AL Cy Young award.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

This is the third best team in baseball, but unfortunately, a playoff ticket might not be in the cards since they play in the AL East. This aspect is actually underrated. Think about it. Right now, the 35-35 Toronto Raptors are currently in the NBA playoffs. By 2.5 games too. Life isn’t always fair, but this is baseball, which is more important than ”life.” What a travesty. Evan Longoria is No. 4 on my fantasy board, Pat Burrell should bounce back, and it’s also possible Boss Junior puts it all together. David Price could go nuts as well. And there’s little doubt Jeremy Hellickson isn’t a better pitcher than Jeff Niemann, and the quicker the Rays realize that, the better. Matt Garza, who increased his K rate substantially last year, looks like their ace; go get him in fantasy leagues. Rafael Soriano’s health will be pretty important.

Fearless prediction: Evan Longoria is a top-four fantasy asset, and Matt Garza is a top-20 fantasy starter. Don’t sleep on Garza, who is getting overlooked in most leagues.

4. Baltimore Orioles

Not too much to like here, but they are on the way up. An outfield of Pacman Jones, Nolan Reimold and Nick Markakis is a great start. Plus Matt Wieters looks likely to live up to all that hype soon, so this is a strong foundation. Mike Gonzalez will be an effective closer as long as he’s healthy, but once he inevitably gets hurt, Koji Uehara (deep sleeper alert for fantasy leagues) will be a fine replacement.

Fearless prediction: With Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman and Jason Heyward, it’s easy to overlook a prospect like Brian Matusz, but don’t be surprised when the he wins AL Rookie of the Year.

5. Toronto Blue Jays

Things don’t look great here, but it’s not quite as dire as it seems. Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Travis Snider are certainly good building blocks, and there’s also a pretty good pipeline through the farm system: Brett Wallace, Zach Stewart and Kyle Drabek. Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Marc Rzepczynski and Dustin McGowan all possess upside as possible future arms in the rotation as well. But in this division, who cares?  Good luck, Toronto.

Fearless prediction: I don’t have much of a “fearless” prognostication here, but Kevin Gregg (not rightfully) looks like the closer entering the season to me, and he’s been coming dirt cheap in drafts/auctions I’ve been in.