By Dalton Del Don
I’m targeting Jay Bruce this year. After hitting just .223 last season, some luster appears to have worn off. He won’t come dirt cheap or anything, but right now his ADP is 121.62 – making him the 38th outfielder off the board, behind guys like Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and even Carlos Beltran. Of course, all leagues vary, and I doubt he’ll come at such a discount in any I play in, but the point remains – few players typically available after round seven offer Bruce’s upside; the kind that can win your league for you. There’s no doubt he strikes out too often and still struggles against lefties, but this is also a 22-year-old who has smashed 43 homers over 209 career games in the majors. His walk rate improved last season, and while it’s never great betting on someone coming off a wrist injury (which suppressed his numbers in 2009), Bruce posted a 1.228 OPS after returning in September. That was during only 14 games, but there’s little reason to worry about his health entering 2010. Although he hasn’t been successful on the base paths so far in the majors, he’s also capable of swiping 15-20 bags. Part of his low .221 BABIP last year can be attributed to all those batted balls leaving the yard, and since he strikes out so frequently, BA remains a risk, but it’s also worth noting that his BABIP was 24 points below the lowest among all qualified hitters last year (Ian Kinsler had a .245 BABIP). Bruce has the ability to reach 40 homers – and as soon as this season.
Interesting read regarding Dusty Baker and his propensity to destroy the arms (and sometimes careers) of his starting pitchers. Some pretty damning evidence.
I’m not going to act like I’m the first person to suggest avoiding Javier Vazquez this year. I mean, it’s pretty obvious the move from the NL back to the AL is a detriment to his fantasy value. You also won’t find a bigger fan of his, as I had him No. 2 on my NL Cy Young ballot for 2009 (it’s an absolute joke how much negativity Keith Law got for having him on his ballot, since, you know, he was 100 percent right). Vazquez is a terrific pitcher (in fact, his 2.89 xFIP led all of baseball last season) and was a huge pickup for the Yankees. He’s going to be a big asset in strikeouts and also probably in WHIP and wins. He’s certainly going to have plenty of value in fantasy leagues. It’s just that an ERA less than 4.00 (or even 4.50) might be too much to ask. Bill James, CHONE and Marcel all call for it to be less than 3.85, but I’m not so optimistic. You see, Vazquez is an extreme flyball pitcher (last season’s 41.7 GB% ranked 50th among starters, and that was for only those who qualified), and he’s now playing in the best home run park in baseball (at least based on one year’s worth of data. Obviously, that’s not quite sufficient. But it’s all we have to work with for now). So while contrary to popular belief, the new Yankee Stadium played as a pitcher’s park last year, it’s extremely susceptible to giving up the long ball, making Vazquez a poor match. And that’s before accounting for the fact he’ll now have to face much tougher lineups in his division. Again, Vazquez is a terrific pitcher who is as durable as they come and was a great addition to the Yankees rotation, but during his previous four seasons in the American League, his ERA was less than 4.67 once. His current ADP (12th SP) is simply too high.
Words cannot describe this video. I usually don’t link to ones this long (11 minutes), but this is pure gold (and the finale doesn’t disappoint, so be sure to watch until the very end). The word “surreal†is often overused, but I can’t think of a better description here. While a bunch of sabermetrics are being discussed, Royals GM Dayton Moore uses “runs scored†as his preferred method of evaluation, and when he’s really feeling crazy, he’ll even sometimes delve into “on-base percentage.†You can’t make this stuff up. Justin Upton is really on the cutting edge as well. And I haven’t even gotten into the random interludes by the “hot blonde,†who is there for, well, I have no idea why. Is she really Jim Bowden’s girlfriend? My mind has truly been blown.
Howie Kendrick isn’t assured of even a starting job, has had durability issues, rarely walks and has limited power and speed, yet I still want him on my fantasy team in 2010. While there will be a battle for the second base job, and it would be nice if he walked every now and then, Kendrick should beat out Maicer Izturis (who could also get at-bats at third base) if he plays up to his potential. Kendrick has a .360 BA throughout his minor league career (1,618 ABs), and he posted a .358/.391/.558 line after the All-Star break with the Angels last year. A 20/20 type campaign isn’t out of the question, and there’s no doubt in my mind Kendrick can win a batting title someday, which would actually be an even bigger boost to your fantasy team’s BA since it would come with few walks.
Speaking of the Angels, I’m picking them to win the AL West this season. I’m all about being a contrarian, and in this rare case, backing the team that has won the division five out of the last six years qualifies as such. PECOTA calls for Texas to win the AL West, with the Angels finishing in last. CAIRO says the Mariners win the division, with the Angels finishing third. CHONE is also predicting the Rangers to finish in first. All random commentary I’ve come across seems to agree as much – the Angels are done. It’s true this team seems to have been rather lucky over the past three years, and this division is one of the hardest to predict entering 2010, and I actually don’t really like Mike Scioscia as a tactician, but I also don’t see many holes in this Angels squad. If anyone wants to pick another AL West team to finish higher than the Angels, I’d love to bet backstage. Let me know.
Alexei Ramirez is an interesting case, as he saw his home runs drop (21 to 15) in 2009 compared to 2008 despite getting 62 more at-bats and more experience. His OPS also declined from .792 to .723 during that span, and while a simple explanation would be that pitchers had a book on him finally, it’s worth noting his K rate dropped while his walk rate jumped significantly, so optimism remains for the 28-year-old, despite his second half collapse (.684 OPS) last season. His success on the base paths also improved in 2009 (74 percent) compared to 2008 (59 percent). Ramirez may never become a truly valuable asset for the White Sox, but he plays in one of the most favorable hitter’s parks in baseball, could easily approach 20/20 this year and qualifies at one of the shallowest positions in baseball, making him plenty valuable in fantasy leagues.
Not that I dislike Tony Kornheiser on PTI, but I wouldn’t mind his two-week suspension lasting longer – Dan Le Batard absolutely blows him and Michael Wilbon away. Not even close.
So my boy Stephen Strasburg has impressed during early bullpen sessions, to say the least. Pudge Rodriguez has already dismissed Justin Verlander comparisons, instead opting for Nolan Ryan. Strasburg reportedly has also taken to the community, rescuing stray kittens in his spare time, and reputedly, he’s also discovered the cure for the common cold, found a piece of evidence that will rightfully get Amanda Knox exonerated and was the driving force behind Soundgarden reuniting. Don’t expect him to pitch for the Nationals until June, but he’ll still be worth a second round fantasy pick nevertheless (OK, that last part was a bit of an exaggeration).
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