By Dalton Del Don
Robinson Cano rebounded from a poor 2008 campaign last season, posting a .320-25-103-85 line. He doesn’t take many walks, but his contact rate is consistently so good (.90 last year), it wouldn’t surprise if he continues to bat around .320 like he did in 2009. Because he doesn’t steal many bags, some may consider Brandon Phillips, Brian Roberts and Ben Zobrist better fantasy options at second base, but it’d be unwise to think of Cano’s 2009 campaign as his ceiling. For one, he’s entering his age 27 season, so further power growth should be expected, and with the new Yankee Stadium acting as the league’s best HR park (at least for one season), Cano could easily top 30 homers in 2010. But by far the biggest area he could see drastic improvement is in run production. No one would complain about a second baseman posting 85 RBI like he did last season, but it could have been so much more, as Cano, despite batting seventh in the order the majority of the time, came to the plate with the ninth-most runners on base in MLB last year. And he hit just .207/.242/.332 in 184 at-bats with RISP. He hit .374/.407/.609 with the bases empty. This is no big outlier, either, as Cano saw his OPS drop 146 points with RISP the year before (when he hit just one HR over 156 at-bats). It doesn’t stop there: in 2007, his OPS dropped 59 points with RISP; in 2006, it declined 148 points; in 2005, it sunk a whopping 234 points. So in all five of Cano’s major league seasons, his performance at the plate has drastically declined when batting with RISP. It sure looks like a trend, but if he’s able to improve in that area, which is typically a matter of luck, we could be looking at massive run production from a MI spot. Cano has averaged 85 RBI over the past three seasons despite failing so miserably in pressure situations (thanks to the loaded Yankee lineup). Don’t be surprised if he has a better fantasy season than Chase Utley in 2010.
Really interesting read about how stress pitches might matter more than pitch counts in regards to pitchers’ health. I was already worried about Justin Verlander’s high workload last season, now I’m strongly considering avoiding him altogether.
Jorge De La Rosa is no sleeper anymore, and there are two aspects working against him: Coors Field and awful control (4.04 BB/9 last year). Still, there’s also plenty to like, as last season’s 9.39 K/9 mark was 10th best in all of baseball. He combined that with a strong 1.34 G/F rate. The (lack of) control is admittedly scary, and De La Rosa isn’t likely to be a big help in WHIP as a result, but remember, last season was his first in the majors that he was given even 25 starts, so he’s still growing as a pitcher. His average fastball velocity last year (93.3 mph) was the second-fastest in the National League by a left-hander (Clayton Kershaw was No. 1), but his massively improved changeup is what makes him truly interesting, as it’s fast becoming a devastating pitch. De La Rosa’s xFIP (3.81) was the 20th best in MLB last season, ranking ahead of CC Sabathia, Matt Cain and Johan Santana. Of course, he’ll come at a fraction of the price compared to those others, and even if De La Rosa doesn’t truly break out in 2010, he should still be a plenty valuable asset for those who play in daily leagues – just start him in road games.
Early word from Giants camp is Madison Bumgarner’s velocity remains down. Of course, it’s still very early. But not good.
On the opposite spectrum of De La Rosa, Roy Oswalt is shaping up to be a boring veteran who looks like he can be had at a discount this year. With a consistently declining K rate (and often an accompanying increase in BB/9), I’ve avoided Oswalt pretty strongly over the past few seasons, but he’s unlikely to ever be had for so cheap in 2010. His build has always suggested a pitcher who won’t be able to pitch deep into his 30s, and maybe last year’s back problems are a sign of further decline and the end is near, but even with a modest strikeout rate (6.85/9), he posted a 3.29:1 K:BB ratio, and maybe his back problems really did stem from pitching in the WBC. Oswalt has a career 3.23 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and his average fastball velocity was 93.1 mph last season, which ranked 15th in all of baseball and was his highest mark since 2004, so rather than take his eight wins, 4.12 ERA and injuries as reasons to avoid him, use them to your advantage and grab him later than ever before.
Compelling article about Roger Ebert, who hasn’t been able to speak, eat or drink for four years now.
Cameron Maybin has yet to have any success at the major league level, hitting just five homers with a .261/.325/.409 line over 257 at-bats. He’s largely been overmatched, striking out 80 times over that span. Still, we are talking about a tiny sample here, and this is a top prospect who is still just 22 years old. Recognizing that youth, his .862 OPS was more than respectable at Triple-A last season, and he’s been successful on 81 of his 103 stolen base attempts throughout his minor league career. Maybin should finally be given a real opportunity in Florida this season, and he’s slated to bat second in the order ahead of Hanley Ramirez, which sets him up for a whole lot more success (Maybin has posted an .848 OPS batting second with the Marlins, albeit in an extremely small sample) compared to hitting him eighth in front of the pitcher (Maybin has posted a .632 OPS batting eighth). Go ahead and take a flier, maybe the luster has worn off.
Saw “Shutter Island†this weekend and left speechless. I mean, wow. Makes the over-the-top “The Departed†seem tame. It definitely produced a bunch of discussion afterward, which is always great. I think I liked it. But at the same time, I could see someone giving it an “F.” Actually, I think the reviews have been overly harsh, considering the material (and premise) Scorsese was working with. Of course, it probably helped I hadn’t read the book, but for me, the 2.5 hours flew by, and even if you can’t get past some of the cheesiness, I doubt many leave not being entertained. I really, really want to know how others view what happened in the end.
I’ve always been a huge Kevin Slowey fan, and normally, I’d recommend him as someone to target coming off an injury-ruined season in which his ERA (4.86) was way out of whack with otherwise terrific peripherals (5:1 K:BB ratio). In fact, over the past two years, Slowey’s K:BB ratio is off the charts (5.08:1). In comparison, Tim Lincecum’s is 3.46:1 over that span. Of course, that stat isn’t the be all, end all, which is especially the case with Slowey, who simply gives up far too many homers. Still, although he’s an extreme flyball pitcher, is HR/F rates have been unlucky over the past three years: 16.5%, 11.5%, 13.0%. So for someone with such terrific control, there is some real upside here. It’s easy to cherry pick numbers, but few pitchers in baseball are capable of posting such dominant stats at times like Slowey, who has recorded a 30:3 K:BB ratio, a 37:2 K:BB ratio and a 25:3 K:BB ratio during three different months over the past 1.5 years. I mean, that’s special. It’s also possible getting outdoors in the new stadium this year will lead to fewer long balls. However, the atrocious Twins’ outfield defense could prove to be a real problem for a pitcher who is constantly giving up flyballs. Minnesota’s outfield posted a collective -30.8 UZR last year, which was the worst in baseball. And that was with Carlos Gomez playing Gold Glove caliber defense in 86 starts in center field. He’s now in Milwaukee, and although the addition of Jim Thome could actually help the defense if it leads to fewer starts from Delmon Young, any outfield combo of Young/Jason Kubel in left, Denard Span stretched in center and Michael Cuddyer in right, should once again be the worst in MLB. I like Slowey, but he’s working an uphill battle.
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